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Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)


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On 7/3/2021 at 8:42 AM, Sprkt69 said:

The lack of experience in the CAF is also getting people killed, losing pilot and machine in the process.

 

The AF higher echelon so far seems fairly comfortable/copacetic about that trade. Down here in the worker's floor we just get to bury our former students, sports kvetch at MDS conferences about manning policies we can't change, and plan missing man flyovers ad nauseam. 

Not trying to be gratuitously despondent, but from where I sit, a lot more visible (from the public's perspective) losses would have to happen to create political pressure onto the Service Chief on this front. 

 

 

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The AF higher echelon so far seems fairly comfortable/copacetic about that trade. Down here in the worker's floor we just get to bury our former students, sports kvetch at MDS conferences about manning policies we can't change, and plan missing man flyovers ad nauseam. 
Not trying to be gratuitously despondent, but from where I sit, a lot more visible (from the public's perspective) losses would have to happen to create political pressure onto the Service Chief on this front. 


Looking at just fatalities, it's likely low enough that it's acceptable to leadership. So you're right, it'll unfortunately take a lot more deaths to cause a change.

However, anecdotally, there seems to be a lot more near misses. And the near misses don't get logged on a slide or metric, and "hides" the safety issues on the line. Sure, there's the ASAP program, but that requires people to fill out paperwork after a long day with competing priorities.

I don't think the solution is paying pilots 100k extra a year to compete with the legacy airlines. It's more fixing the culture/environment where people enjoy their work and it doesn't become a grind, and the only way to do that is to decrease ops while we rebuild. That's not to say no bonus is needed, but money isn't the only issue that needs fixing to improve pilot retention.

If there's a legacy that our time in Afghanistan (and the primacy that CENTCOM enjoyed for the past 2+ decades) has on the AF, it's that we've burned out our crews and airframes for little to no strategic gain.
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1 hour ago, jazzdude said:

 


Looking at just fatalities, it's likely low enough that it's acceptable to leadership. So you're right, it'll unfortunately take a lot more deaths to cause a change.

However, anecdotally, there seems to be a lot more near misses. And the near misses don't get logged on a slide or metric, and "hides" the safety issues on the line. Sure, there's the ASAP program, but that requires people to fill out paperwork after a long day with competing priorities.

I don't think the solution is paying pilots 100k extra a year to compete with the legacy airlines. It's more fixing the culture/environment where people enjoy their work and it doesn't become a grind, and the only way to do that is to decrease ops while we rebuild. That's not to say no bonus is needed, but money isn't the only issue that needs fixing to improve pilot retention.

If there's a legacy that our time in Afghanistan (and the primacy that CENTCOM enjoyed for the past 2+ decades) has on the AF, it's that we've burned out our crews and airframes for little to no strategic gain.

 

Oh you're preaching to the choir. But it's moot. Pilot retention is NOT something the AF legitimately cares about. The Service Chief has bought lock stock and barrel this PTN illuminati version of fixing the manning problem via production. Which is itself peddled in a version that purports attaining said goals without the need to re-up a former UPT location (Moody being the obvious one in present circumstances).

For the record, that pseudo-intellectual pet project is not attaining the production targets they have been aiming for since FY18. My prediction is that it will continue to fail to meet targets until the current autocrat in the training throne retires and the next chucklehead tells everybody to start ramping up some other pet project.

Now, even under the Chief's own implicit stipulation of focusing on  production over retention, chances of actually enacting Occam's Razor (e.g ramp up Moody) and getting on with the task at hand? Zero. Our capitalization priorities are FUBAR as it is; zero chance that ever becoming a COA that won't get wholly dismissed from the jump. So PTN gaslighting, and more hull losses is what you'll get.

--brk brk--

On the QOL front, the reality is that a lot of the thrash that made ops tempo what it was, is AFCENT/CENTCOM created, and none of the AF sub-hierarchies dared push back for effect. AETC tours were supposed to be a reprieve, but they got co-opted into that individual augmentee, operation deny xmas nonsense peddled by CENTCOM, and cheered on by the cOmBaT-cRed/deployment-bros that found themselves in the seats in NAF/staff circles. Meanwhile, that one "deployed" base in Qatar looked like mornings at the local Home Depot parking lot. Fwa run amok. But keeping people in garrison for a tour, or honoring BoP follow-on is all of a sudden blasphemy? Copy. 

 

No amount of money is gonna fix that. That's why I went AFRC from day one. I got 99 problems here, but being told I'm "a drain" on the Total Force because I choose to stipulate non-financials (schedules and homesteading in my case) over money or promotions when offering my indentured servitude (aka control), is just not one of them. For the RegAF otoh, squeezing gratuitously appears to be a given, and no amount of money is gonna fix that anti-labor pathology. You need a doctrinal shift, and that's a wish in one hand type o' thing from where I sit.

 

So yeah... the airlines are hiring. 🤷‍♂️

 

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At what point of war or losing our standing in the world do our airlines take a hit or go away making the jobs go away as well. I realize I sound all Red Dawn but with the level of Marxism being pushed making its way to socialism, it doesn’t seem like it’s that far off. We are complaining about the flight pay (me too) but how long will it be around? How long will good paying airline jobs be around or even earned military pensions?

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9 hours ago, Guardian said:

At what point of war or losing our standing in the world do our airlines take a hit or go away making the jobs go away as well. I realize I sound all Red Dawn but with the level of Marxism being pushed making its way to socialism, it doesn’t seem like it’s that far off. We are complaining about the flight pay (me too) but how long will it be around? How long will good paying airline jobs be around or even earned military pensions?

If it makes you feel better, even the national run airlines pay their pilots pretty well, and I don't see American airlines absolutely disappearing in your scenario. Nearly every country has some sort of domestic/national airline.

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13 hours ago, Guardian said:

At what point of war or losing our standing in the world do our airlines take a hit or go away making the jobs go away as well. I realize I sound all Red Dawn but with the level of Marxism being pushed making its way to socialism, it doesn’t seem like it’s that far off. We are complaining about the flight pay (me too) but how long will it be around? How long will good paying airline jobs be around or even earned military pensions?

It'll be around until everyone typing away on this message board is dead.

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Kind of related look at the USMC high turnover personnel strategy in their enlisted ranks.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-courage-to-change-modernizing-u-s-marine-corps-human-capital-investment-and-retention/

To have the force the Marine Corps wants, it must increase investment in — and retention of — enlisted human capital in keeping with its appetite for increased capability.

By any standard, the Marine Corps system has managed to meet the internal, selfreferential measures of success as defined within its manpower management orders and directives. The professionalism, sacrifice, and hard work of recruiters and manpower professionals have met demands of the high-turnover, low-investment system. Time and again, young Marines have prevailed on modern battlefields. They have succeeded in spite of — not because of — the system in which they operate. This paper steps outside of the presuppositions of the “logical pyramid” paradigm and considers afresh whether Marine Corps enlisted human capital practices deliver the greatest possible Fleet Marine Force (FMF)capability for a given personnel budget.
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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, Ryder1587 said:

Did the take rates for this year get published yet ?  Or are they too embarrassed to release them?

The current take rates are out there. I think it's on that aircrew task force website.  It's a not well advertised link that you have to hunt for.  I looked at them two weeks ago, and they are abysmal, as should be expected with such a shitty bonus. Overall rate was like 36% or so. Fighter/bombers were even lower. A couple months left for folks to sign it so the numbers may increase, but it looked like it was shaping up to be the worst take rates in the last 5+ years.

I'll track it down today at work.

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On 7/21/2021 at 8:58 AM, Hunter Rose said:

The current take rates are out there. I think it's on that aircrew task force website.  It's a not well advertised link that you have to hunt for.  I looked at them two weeks ago, and they are abysmal, as should be expected with such a shitty bonus. Overall rate was like 36% or so. Fighter/bombers were even lower. A couple months left for folks to sign it so the numbers may increase, but it looked like it was shaping up to be the worst take rates in the last 5+ years.

I'll track it down today at work.

Why worry about retention when PA can just write a chintzy article about retention and how the Total Force hopes it can preserve talent that “The nation has invested millions of dollars in training these great Americans to protect and defend our way of life."

Pilots Leaving Active Duty Have Safe Landing Place in Reserve/Guard

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https://starsdemog.a1vdc.us.af.mil/Avb/avb.html

Here's the AvB 2021 stat tracker site.  (Recommend viewing in Chrome)  Lots of interesting info there, and you can also go back and look at historical data.  There's also a filter section and spreadsheet at the bottom where you can find your MAJCOM/MDS/Base of interest and see what individual people are doing. 

Numbers are abysmal (not surprising given the changes this year), with just over a month left in the window.  Fixed wing pilot take rate is still sitting below 30%.

Full disclosure: I'm likely signing the 8 year bonus, as I was planning on staying in until retirement anyway and I still love my job (most days).  The pros outweigh the cons for my family and my situation.  But this bonus would NOT have been anywhere near competitive enough to convince me if I was on the fence.

Anyone know if the recently marked NDAA from the SASC made any changes to the bonus?

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  • 3 weeks later...
12 hours ago, Day Man said:

i would enjoy some serious schadenfreude at the AF's expense, but the national security implications are worrying.

 I'll enjoy the schadenfreude. I'd feel a little sympathy if the AF had left the bonus at pre-COVID terms.  But they didn't. They took the risk that COVID would affect the airlines longer, and offered a bonus with shit terms with less money/longer minimum commitments. They gambled and lost. So to hell with a big AF that makes it pretty clear they do not appreciate their rated force.

Edited by Hunter Rose
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2 hours ago, Hunter Rose said:

 I'll enjoy the schadenfreude. I'd feel a little sympathy if the AF had left the bonus at pre-COVID terms.  But they didn't. They took the risk that COVID would affect the airlines longer, and offered a bonus with shit terms with less money/longer minimum commitments. They gambled and lost. So to hell with a big AF that makes it pretty clear they do not appreciate their rated force.

Well given the direction this country is going since we are about to pass a 3.5 Trillion dollar piece of legislation I wouldn't be surprised to see the Airlines get nationalized if the party in power felt it was time to go to war.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/25/2021 at 5:37 PM, di1630 said:

~1 month to go:

Fixed wing overall take rate: 32%

11F: 24%
11B: 31%
11M: 29%

Ouch

Get ready for this kinda take rate being used as justification to kill the bonus altogether… I give it one more FY, tops. 

Makes a perfect compliment to the $300+B in cuts coming to the Pentagon… 

Rough roads ahead. 

Chuck

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9 minutes ago, Chuck17 said:

Get ready for this kinda take rate being used as justification to kill the bonus altogether… I give it one more FY, tops. 

Makes a perfect compliment to the $300+B in cuts coming to the Pentagon… 

Rough roads ahead. 

Chuck

Retention rate would be around 30% regardless if there was a bonus or not.  They won't raise it enough to move the needle, so I certainly see the temptation to eliminate it.  

I'd rather they plan to staff service with the 30% rate in mind.  Open another pilot pilot training base.  Resource it with new iron and personnel.  Staff the FTUs.  Accept 5 to 7 years of degraded  capability while the new paradigm takes hold.

Pipe dream of course.  Bureaucracies don't change wholesale, just incrementally   Most likely COA is to continue the course, massage the data until it meets the metric, and adjust the metric once the fuzzy math won't work.  Maybe a quad chart or something.  

If we're lucky, our mission sets over the next few years will be deterrence focused instead kinetic.  Hopefully.

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