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Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)


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29 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I thought that 11S had traditionally been a bright spot. What changed? 

A reflection of endless deployments and some VERY caustic folks getting promoted.  One person in particular did a lot of damage, he refused to let a Gunship EP go to the B-2 program...so the guy got out.  He refused to let a C-146 guy apply to the U-2 program...so the guy is getting out.  He also refused to let a CV-22 Flight Lead apply for TPS...so that guy got out. 

At one point earlier this year they were 1/14 on gunship pilots.  I know the shortage of 11Fs has allowed some former TAMI folks to flow back to fighters in the guard and reserve, the 11S community lost several patches to that situation. 

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

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3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

This statement above, plus you said "get out while you can" just a few months back.

 

Cm'on, CH...show us your cards.

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3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

A reflection of endless deployments and some VERY caustic folks getting promoted.  One person in particular did a lot of damage, he refused to let a Gunship EP go to the B-2 program...so the guy got out.  He refused to let a C-146 guy apply to the U-2 program...so the guy is getting out.  He also refused to let a CV-22 Flight Lead apply for TPS...so that guy got out. 

At one point earlier this year they were 1/14 on gunship pilots.  I know the shortage of 11Fs has allowed some former TAMI folks to flow back to fighters in the guard and reserve, the 11S community lost several patches to that situation. 

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

On the gunship side, just think where they'd be if the situation hadn't been partially relieved by the fact that they could consolidate 3 squadrons into 2 near the height of the hemorrhaging.  

No worries though, AFSOC.  Usually when personnel issues lead to failures downrange for the gunship it doesn't turn out to be a strategic blunder that makes front page news for months on end...

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14 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I have not looked at the AFPC site lately...because I am RETIRED, but I heard today the retention rates remain ungood.  In the 11S community the target ACP takes rate is 64%, the break even is 52% and the current take rate is 32%....and falling.

 

FWIW, the final FY16 ACP report still has not been released, so theoretically, the numbers could change. Per the AFPC website, though, the overall FY 16 11S take rate as of 3 Oct was 50%. Regarding gunships in particular, the take rate for AC-130H/J/U/W combined was 23.5% (4 takers out of 17 eligibles). I'm no math major, and others can comment on statistical significance, but this seems pretty bad.

What I'm looking forward to in the final report is rest of the data, beyond just take rates: how many retirements/separations has each community experienced?

Getting back to my own 11M lane: There's been some talk in this forum about a pending 11M crisis. It's unarguably already here. The point of the bonus is to keep experienced folks on property, IOT to fill leadership and staff positions. Underproduction of 11Ms in the mid-90s year groups, combined with current-day hiring, means slim pickin's right now for current/future mobility O-6s/ future senior leaders. Personnel management buffoonery/endless deployments/backfilling other AFSCs/etc. has likewise thinned out late-90s & early 2000s year groups & made it really unlikely those still on AD will stay past 20. Those reaching bonus eligibility are somewhere around the '05 year group; if this year's take rate (and the broader trend over the past few years) is any indication), they sure don't seem inclined to stay on AD. I have trouble seeing how the 11M is/will be healthy in any year group that's hit bonus and/or retirement eligibility.

If the theoretically "fat" heavy community is as hurting for experience as I think it is, I can only imagine how much worse it is for undermanned communities like 11Ss.  

TT

 

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1 hour ago, TnkrToad said:

FWIW, the final FY16 ACP report still has not been released, so theoretically, the numbers could change. Per the AFPC website, though, the overall FY 16 11S take rate as of 3 Oct was 50%. Regarding gunships in particular, the take rate for AC-130H/J/U/W combined was 23.5% (4 takers out of 17 eligibles). I'm no math major, and others can comment on statistical significance, but this seems pretty bad.

What I'm looking forward to in the final report is rest of the data, beyond just take rates: how many retirements/separations has each community experienced?

 

 

I am very curious to see the end report as well.  I heard the 32% figure from a very senior 11S just yesterday, perhaps he was lumping several key 11S career field together?  With gunships at 25% someone else in the 11S community must have superb retention to get the community total to 50%.  On the 4/17 gunship, as I recall 2 of the 4 who took the bonus already had additional commitment for going ACJ.  Regardless, it takes a long time to build a Gunship IP/EP and losing 75% of a year group is going to have second and third order effects.

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2 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

Getting back to my own 11M lane: There's been some talk in this forum about a pending 11M crisis. It's unarguably already here. The point of the bonus is to keep experienced folks on property, IOT to fill leadership and staff positions. Underproduction of 11Ms in the mid-90s year groups, combined with current-day hiring, means slim pickin's right now for current/future mobility O-6s/ future senior leaders. Personnel management buffoonery/endless deployments/backfilling other AFSCs/etc. has likewise thinned out late-90s & early 2000s year groups & made it really unlikely those still on AD will stay past 20. Those reaching bonus eligibility are somewhere around the '05 year group; if this year's take rate (and the broader trend over the past few years) is any indication), they sure don't seem inclined to stay on AD. I have trouble seeing how the 11M is/will be healthy in any year group that's hit bonus and/or retirement eligibility.

If the theoretically "fat" heavy community is as hurting for experience as I think it is, I can only imagine how much worse it is for undermanned communities like 11Ss.  

TT

 

You forgot to mention that 2500 hours of international multi eng heavy jet is pretty much just two ops tours.  Cross check that with hiring mins and the threat of a staff tour to backfill Joe Fighter Jock's staff billet and you've got a recipe for a pilot shortage.  Everyone you talk to seems to be looking for the nearest exit...

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59 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

With gunships at 25% someone else in the 11S community must have superb retention to get the community total to 50%. 

Per the non-final numbers, the MC-130 community brought the AFSOC average up. All but two (14/16--87.5%) of the MC-130H/J/P pilots took the bonus. The two non-takers were both Talon drivers. The CV-22 and U-28 communities also marginally brought up the average; they were both 58%.

Bottom line, given only 78 total 11S eligibles, even a handful of folks extra taking the bonus skewed the numbers significantly.

The only other AFSOC community not already mentioned is interesting. There were 21 C-145 (I assume a combo of NSAV & 6th SOS) eligibles. There were more C-145 eligibles than there were in any other AFSOC community. Their take rate was just 33%. Not sure what to make of this (again, go back to statistical significance discussion), but doesn't appear folks are all that excited about the OSA for SOF mission. That, or they saw the opportunity to take all that flying time to the civilian sector. If the C-145 numbers include the 6th SOS, the AvFID mission must be really suffering. 

Lemme guess--AFSOC will take more 11Ms from AMC to flesh out their ranks in the NSAV & 6 SOS missions . . .

TT

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TT,

VERY interesting numbers.  If the MC-130 numbers are that good then clearly Cannon is not having an impact on retention in that community, although I am curious if any of those folks had secondary ADSC from moving to the MCJ.  The MC-130H draw-down is going to create a very small community of folks at one location,it will be interesting to see their retention numbers the next few years.

On the C-145...technically they don't do NSAV anymore, we retired the majority of the fleet, the remaining aircraft are now in the reserves at Duke.  The 6th SOS has some great folks, but they have been continuously under-resourced by commanders who did not see their value.  I was in the room when one past AFSOC/CC was openly bashing them asking the crowd to name one time, just one time when they opened a door in the recent conflicts...a lot of folks were looking at each ready to speak up for several examples, but it was clear it was rhetorical and he did not want to hear a response. 

The C-146 is the primary NSAV aircraft and they are moving from Cannon to Duke, the active duty folks will get a two year ADSC but I know several who are taking the ADSC but NOT the ACP...they are simply counting down.

While AFSOC is not YET facing the same level of hurt as the 11F community, it is on the way and somewhat exacerbated by leadership.  In the room with yet another AFSOC/CC when he was told about the looming problem of pilot retention, he replied...they will stay if they are patriots and if not we don;t want them, we will just make more...I was absolutely speechless. I will be very general to protect their identity, but there are several sitting SQ/CC's who are planning to bail when their current tour is complete.

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1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

TT,

VERY interesting numbers.  If the MC-130 numbers are that good then clearly Cannon is not having an impact on retention in that community, although I am curious if any of those folks had secondary ADSC from moving to the MCJ.  The MC-130H draw-down is going to create a very small community of folks at one location,it will be interesting to see their retention numbers the next few years.

On the C-145...technically they don't do NSAV anymore, we retired the majority of the fleet, the remaining aircraft are now in the reserves at Duke.  The 6th SOS has some great folks, but they have been continuously under-resourced by commanders who did not see their value.  I was in the room when one past AFSOC/CC was openly bashing them asking the crowd to name one time, just one time when they opened a door in the recent conflicts...a lot of folks were looking at each ready to speak up for several examples, but it was clear it was rhetorical and he did not want to hear a response. 

The C-146 is the primary NSAV aircraft and they are moving from Cannon to Duke, the active duty folks will get a two year ADSC but I know several who are taking the ADSC but NOT the ACP...they are simply counting down.

While AFSOC is not YET facing the same level of hurt as the 11F community, it is on the way and somewhat exacerbated by leadership.  In the room with yet another AFSOC/CC when he was told about the looming problem of pilot retention, he replied...they will stay if they are patriots and if not we don;t want them, we will just make more...I was absolutely speechless. I will be very general to protect their identity, but there are several sitting SQ/CC's who are planning to bail when their current tour is complete.

"If they don't like it, they can leave"...this is the same mentality that created the fighter pilot shortage.

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20 hours ago, Ram said:

This statement above, plus you said "get out while you can" just a few months back.

 

Cm'on, CH...show us your cards.

I'm retired now so my view of the cards is dated.  I tired to tell a LOT of senior folks this was coming and they did not seem concerned.  Towards the end you could tell they were beginning to see how serious it was but it was too late for them to make real change.  I heard lot of chatter from bros on the Airstaff and Stoploss was being discussed, but I don't know if they decided on a redline.  Another previous MAJCOM commander commented that stoploss was a "viable retention tool"...he is retired now and I don't know if his views shared by the other seniors...obviously we all thought he was out of his mind, you can't stoploss folks until 20 years and the message it would send would only make the situation worse.

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Some rumors are spreading in the ANG and that the AGR bonus is staying at 25k/yr even if/when the AD bonus goes up. That'd be an interesting play.  AGRs deal with far less bullshit than AD counterparts yet they still are resigning their positions to get a line number. Anyone in the know have any SA?

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13 hours ago, ViperStud said:

Some rumors are spreading in the ANG and that the AGR bonus is staying at 25k/yr even if/when the AD bonus goes up. That'd be an interesting play.  AGRs deal with far less bullshit than AD counterparts yet they still are resigning their positions to get a line number. Anyone in the know have any SA?

Very interesting play indeed.  We have guys about to end a year or 2 of MLOA that are on the fence about extending...this bonus will be a big player.  There are new patches resigning and going to the airlines.  The Guard BS is much less than our AD counterparts, but it's still very much UP, relatively speaking.  

Edited by SocialD
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They need to implement the TR bonus they've been talking about or they're going to have an exodus from the reserves as well.


We have heard about a TR/extended orders bonus for RPA units. Does anyone have any insight into this? We are researching, but curious if any bubbas are getting it or have some knowledge.


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