Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[Fifty-six & Two]

New updated numbers today. 1 FY14 pkg and 5 FY15 pkgs finalized over the past 2 weeks. Still sitting at just over 53% take rate.

FYI, last year's take rate was 68%. Last time it was below 65% was FY02.

I know it's not over until it's over, but come on.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Fifty-six & Two

[Butters]

Last I heard A1 said their goal for this year was 53.69%

[icohftb]

Last I heard A1 said their goal for this year was 53.69%

You mean they overshot their target? better get the rif paperwork started

[TnkrToad]

Funny; looking at most updated stats:

- The three pilot groups with the worst take rates are: Mobility (179/349--51.3%), Fighter (130/281--46.3%) and Unmanned (16/32--50%)

-- The Mobility and Fighter pilot groups have the two largest groups of eligibles--low take rates for large groups makes for crummy overall retention

-- Two of the three groups were specially targeted by AFPC for retention efforts (Fighter and Unmanned, of course)--specially-targeted bonuses don't seem all that helpful (at least at amounts they're currently offering)

Almost all pilot groups are way below last year's take rates:

- CSAR: 69.6% (down 24.2% from last year)

- C2ISR/EW: 57.5% (down 18.5%)

- Fighter: 46.3% (down 16.3%)

- Mobility: 51.3% (down 15.7%)

- Bomber: 66.7% (down 14.5%)

- Unmanned: 50% (down 9.3%)

- Particular MDSs seem to really be hurting pretty badly; check out the take rates for the following:

-- A-10: 38.5%

-- F-15: 24%

-- MQ-9: 33.3%

-- CV-22: 28.6%

- My cursory look at AETC flying training (SUPT and RTU) bases indicates that there'll be plenty of "opportunities" for folks to PCS to SUPT/RTU bases

It'll be interesting to read the FY14 ACP Report. Can't wait to see how they try to put a positive spin on this.

[Jaded]

John Q public's blog mentioned that he talked to AFPC and was told that they have a huge backlog they are still working through. He received numbers, did the math and it looked like the take rate was going to be about the same as last year. I don't know how this is going to actually turn out, but let's wait until the final numbers are in.

Was anybody around in 96/97 when the take rate fell off a cliff?

[HeloDude]

John Q public's blog mentioned that he talked to AFPC and was told that they have a huge backlog they are still working through. He received numbers, did the math and it looked like the take rate was going to be about the same as last year. I don't know how this is going to actually turn out, but let's wait until the final numbers are in.

Was anybody around in 96/97 when the take rate fell off a cliff?

Not buying it...

[Slander]

Maybe it's because the total dollar amount has stayed the same for about 20 years. A quick google search got me to calculator.net which has a CPI calculator. $250k in 1995 = $393k in 2014. It would be a lot more difficult for me to pass up the bonus if it were $200k showing up in my bank the next day.

Good luck selling that to congress, I know. But if you want to retain talent with economic incentive, that incentive needs to be enough to give people serious pause. Most of us can probably get well paying jobs where we can make up that $250k plus the normal salary in a similar time period. It probably would not be flying military aircraft, and also not flying commercial aircraft, but I'm confident that if I bailed on the USAF I could live as or more comfortably (financially) than I could in the USAF even with the extra $2000/month from the bonus.

http://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html?cstartingamount1=250000&cinyear1=1995&coutyear1=2014&calctype=1&x=36&y=18

[TnkrToad]

Was anybody around in 96/97 when the take rate fell off a cliff?

At UPT bases during that timeframe, the prior-MWS guys spent as much or more time talking about which airlines were hiring as they did teaching folks how to fly Tweets/T-1s. Six from my class took other tracks--T-1s, T-44s and helos--over T-38s (to include our #1 guy out of Tweets, who took a T-1). They used to let folks select their tracks purely based on order of merit. Perhaps the number of guys choosing heavies is what encouraged the AF to go to dream sheets/whatever it is they use these days. At my first flying assignment, I can't recall anyone who was eligible for the bonus actually taking it. Perhaps due to the "mentorship" we got during UPT & our first assignments (and getting beat down because they under-produced heavy pilots from my year group), I'm the only mobility pilot from my UPT class is still on active duty--and we haven't even hit the 20 yr point yet.

[Smokin]

... guys spent as much or more time talking about which airlines were hiring as they did teaching folks how to fly...

So you're saying nothing has changed....

[Fifty-six & Two]

New numbers today. Still at 53%. Five more FY15 pkgs finalized.

[Fifty-six & Two]

End of FY14 Retention Report up on Myers. 53% take rate.

Edit: 59% if you don't include all those individuals that separated voluntarily under the FM programs.

Still the lowest it's been since FY02.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Fifty-six & Two

[Jaded]

End of FY14 Retention Report up on Myers. 53% take rate.

Edit: 59% if you don't include all those individuals that separated voluntarily under the FM programs.

Still the lowest it's been since FY02.

Wow. 46% take rate for fighters? 101% losses of eligible mobility pilots when including VSP? Overall Continuation rate of 35% for 6-14 year groups? This report looks really bad.

Maybe this means some of the career progression and quality of life issues will be addressed, right guys? Guys?

Also, the 59% is bogus logic, since a person choosing to VSP wasn't going to take the bonus if not allowed to separate. Looks like a statistic cooked up to make AFPC look better.

Can someone tell me how this isn't a huge problem?

[ViperStud]

Yawn. Didn't read the full report because I couldn't find it on mypers. Granted I didn't try too hard. Is anyone really surprised? TToad said some airframes in particular are hurting. I'll address the ones in most familiar with - Eagles and Hogs. So you're telling me dudes won't commit when their airframe is either on the chopping block or rumored to be the next one on the block? Oh and UAV take rates are low - read these forums much? No surprises there.

If there is any reaction to all of this I bet the bonus has to go up (sooner rather than later) and/or UPT commitments go up - granted that won't help for 10+ yrs. What, some authorization bill caps it at 25K - that can be changed with the stroke of a pen if they're desperate enough. Kind of like DADT, the Airbus tanker or the 500+ raptors we'd buy: all written in black and white...until they weren't anymore. What the hell else can AFPC do - close crappy bases, reduce Ops Tempo, limit workdays to 10 hours and cut queep in half? They'd have a better chance of getting a $1M bonus approved than tackling even one of those.

Like I said - no surprises here. It will be mildly interesting to see the spin our senior leaders put on it. My guess is we'll see complete silence or some ball wash about how we face manning challenges everywhere, fiscal challenges, leaner force, blah blah blah.

[TnkrToad]

Like I said - no surprises here. It will be mildly interesting to see the spin our senior leaders put on it. My guess is we'll see complete silence or some ball wash about how we face manning challenges everywhere, fiscal challenges, leaner force, blah blah blah.

Like you, I can't wait to hear how senior leaders will try to spin this. Some other interesting statistics/thoughts:

- 12 pilots with 15-19 Commissioned Years of Service took Palace Chase--the most in any FY, from '93-'14

- 30 pilots with 15-19 CYOS took Normal Separation and 4 more 7-day opted--the most since FY '01 (the last full FY of the pre-9/11 hiring boom)

-- What do I make of the above two tidbits? While FY 14 wasn't the first year where the AF used Force Management programs to thin the herd, this year substantially exceeded prior efforts. When folks with so much vested in the service get out, this seems a pretty good confirmation that either hiring on the outside is good or dudes are fed up.

- 838 mobility pilot losses in FY 14--as mentioned in an earlier post, that equates to 101% of eligibles (versus 69% of eligibles the prior year), due to force management programs. Not only is the grass looking greener on the other side of the fence, but the Air Force seems to be pushing heavy drivers out of the pasture

- From another discussion thread, crew ratios for mobility pilots are apparently being reduced. From the Air Force Times, C-17 crews will go from a 3.0 crew ratio to a 2.0 (although someone else was briefed a reduction to 2.5). Such reductions, without reductions in requirements, equates to a 20-50% increase in workload. Not a formula for long-term retention success

So . . . Big Blue is doing its best to make life suck for 11Ms, while at the same time incentivizing them to leave, at the outset of a major hiring boom. I don't know how to put a positive spin on this.

For those of you who aren't 11Ms, you might wonder why you care. You might want to check who's filling ACC, AFSOC, etc., staff billets in lieu of short-manned 11Fs and 11Ss.

edited for grammer and speling

Edited November 26, 2014 by TnkrToad

[DirkDiggler]

If those of you who aren't 11Ms, you might wonder why you care. You might want to check who's filling ACC, AFSOC, etc., staff billets in lieu of short-mainned 11Fs and 11Ss.

[/quote

The majority of AFSOC rated guys aren't heading to staff billets these days, they're flying the line or pulling a MAJCOM staff tour while simultaneously still flying at Hurbie.

[TnkrToad]

The majority of AFSOC rated guys aren't heading to staff billets these days, they're flying the line or pulling a MAJCOM staff tour while simultaneously still flying at Hurbie.

Sounds like a winning long-term strategy for AFSOC. What could possibly go wrong?

[Warrior]

Sounds like a winning long-term strategy for AFSOC. What could possibly go wrong?

I could care less what's good for afsoc, I (pretty much) only care about my family and QOL.

A common theme on here is how checking boxes sucks. Never send me to staff, never send me to school and most of us are happy campers because we get to keep flying.

The rub is this: when do you get the boot? Because without doing those things you don't make O-5 and without making O-5 you have to get offered continuation in order to make it to 20

[Majestik Møøse]

I could care less what's good for afsoc, I (pretty much) only care about my family and QOL.

A common theme on here is how checking boxes sucks. Never send me to staff, never send me to school and most of us are happy campers because we get to keep flying.

The rub is this: when do you get the boot? Because without doing those things you don't make O-5 and without making O-5 you have to get offered continuation in order to make it to 20

What will the future be like though? A shit ton of dudes just punched, so I think the promotion chances are looking better for everybody.

[TnkrToad]

I could care less what's good for afsoc, I (pretty much) only care about my family and QOL.

A common theme on here is how checking boxes sucks. Never send me to staff, never send me to school and most of us are happy campers because we get to keep flying.

The rub is this: when do you get the boot? Because without doing those things you don't make O-5 and without making O-5 you have to get offered continuation in order to make it to 20

What will the future be like though? A shit ton of dudes just punched, so I think the promotion chances are looking better for everybody.

If you're concerned about your QOL, you should be concerned about the health of your MAJCOM (in this case AFSOC) staff. Screwups and work undone at the higher headquarters level have a way of making life suck at the unit level. It can suck enough that seeking promotion becomes a non-issue.

[sqwatch]

If you're concerned about your QOL, you should be concerned about the health of your MAJCOM (in this case AFSOC) staff. Screwups and work undone at the higher headquarters level have a way of making life suck at the unit level. It can suck enough that seeking promotion becomes a non-issue.

I'm beginning to sense a one sided opinion.

[pawnman]

Like you, I can't wait to hear how senior leaders will try to spin this. Some other interesting statistics/thoughts:

- 12 pilots with 15-19 Commissioned Years of Service took Palace Chase--the most in any FY, from '93-'14

- 30 pilots with 15-19 CYOS took Normal Separation and 4 more 7-day opted--the most since FY '01 (the last full FY of the pre-9/11 hiring boom)

-- What do I make of the above two tidbits? While FY 14 wasn't the first year where the AF used Force Management programs to thin the herd, this year substantially exceeded prior efforts. When folks with so much vested in the service get out, this seems a pretty good confirmation that either hiring on the outside is good or dudes are fed up.

- 838 mobility pilot losses in FY 14--as mentioned in an earlier post, that equates to 101% of eligibles (versus 69% of eligibles the prior year), due to force management programs. Not only is the grass looking greener on the other side of the fence, but the Air Force seems to be pushing heavy drivers out of the pasture

- From another discussion thread, crew ratios for mobility pilots are apparently being reduced. From the Air Force Times, C-17 crews will go from a 3.0 crew ratio to a 2.0 (although someone else was briefed a reduction to 2.5). Such reductions, without reductions in requirements, equates to a 20-50% increase in workload. Not a formula for long-term retention success

So . . . Big Blue is doing its best to make life suck for 11Ms, while at the same time incentivizing them to leave, at the outset of a major hiring boom. I don't know how to put a positive spin on this.

For those of you who aren't 11Ms, you might wonder why you care. You might want to check who's filling ACC, AFSOC, etc., staff billets in lieu of short-manned 11Fs and 11Ss.

edited for grammer and speling

You mean those staff jobs might open up in ACC to more than the top 20% plus 1 random dude from the entire MAJCOM?

[TnkrToad]

You mean those staff jobs might open up in ACC to more than the top 20% plus 1 random dude from the entire MAJCOM?

What I mean to say is, in the immortal words of George Clooney, "Damn! We're in a tight spot!"

- Due to AFPC and/or AF/A1M buffoonery, we used to just have shortages of 11Fs, 11Hs, 11Ss and 11Us--due to underproduction and/or community growth--but a surplus of 11Ms (which could backfill other communities in AETC, on staffs, etc.)

- Now, we have a circumstance wherein--as I perceive it--we don't (or soon won't) have any excess 11Ms to provide those backfills. Don't forget that the 12M community has also taken it in the shorts recently--so all the mobility aviator billets they might otherwise fill will also keep 11Ms in mobility jobs

- If the AFSOC situation described in an earlier post is accurate--nobody going to staff/MAJCOM staffers still flying the line--this might indicate how it is going/will go in other MAJCOMs

How a bill becomes a law:

1) Not enough 11Fs/11Ss/etc. to fill ops cockpits and staffs, so ops units get filled and staffs get shortfalled

2) 11M functionals refuse to give up bodies to backfill, because various force management initiatives have carrot-and-sticked any excess out of the service. Long-term trends aren’t much cause for optimism

3) ACC/AFSOC functionals are now on the horns of a dilemma: continue to shortfall staffs, which means they have even fewer people to advocate for their relative positions and/or build viable plans, or shortchange ops units and thus make it even harder to meet operational requirements?

4) My guess is that folks in the ops units will see even worse decisions come out of higher headquarters, while experiencing the same or worse ops tempo due to manning shortages. Folks in higher headquarters staffs will be all the more frustrated, because not only will they be overworked by virtue of being undermanned, but they’ll have to deal with even louder griping from the ops units, since they’ll be forced to push work down to wings/groups/squadrons that used to be done by MAJCOM staffs

Will opportunities to be released to staff improve? I dunno. I’m not sure you’ll want to go to staff, however, if the above dynamic is truly at work. The “good” news in such a scenario would be that, by process of elimination, your chances of making O-5 should be pretty good.

The Air Force appears to have taken a tough problem and made it intractable.

Edit: fixed ridiculously large font.

Edited December 1, 2014 by TnkrToad

[Tonka]

I can solve the 11M manning problem. Put everything on boats, and stop unnecessary air refuelings for the sake of 3 hour ground times; will probably save at least $500 mil to boot... We're going to have stop doing things out of convience, we have fighters to buy.

[C17Driver]

I can solve the 11M manning problem. Put everything on boats, and stop unnecessary air refuelings for the sake of 3 hour ground times; will probably save at least $500 mil to boot... We're going to have stop doing things out of convience, we have fighters to buy.

If only it were that easy (putting everything on boats).

[Tonka]

Half in jest at the countless pallets of water bottles i remember moving. No not everything can go on a boat, but many things don't have to be there yesterday. I won't derail the thread anymore.