Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[Jaded]

I would guess lots of f-16 guard opportunities.

[C-21.Pilot]

So, when does the "boom" start? Dude, I am not speculating/wishing, just making fun of the guys that have been talking about this "boom" going on 10 years now.

Dude, you are waiting for dynamite to explode then insert Batman like caption "BOOM". It's not an overnight ideal -- but the gradual hiring trends across the airline industry in general. I've heard the same "10 years" quote several times.....but now, it's a reality because of pending retirements. Across the range of major airlines (to include Fed Ex and UPS), they will have to replace over 14,000 pilots in the next 7 years due to retirement age.

That, my friend, is the "boom"....the fuse on a bunch of black-cats popping.

Edited October 3, 2013 by C-21.Pilot

[ViperStud]

From an 11F perspective, I'd have to say I am surprised. If you look at the take rates for F-15C, F-15E, and F-22, they were all near 70-75%. This is a group whose take rate last year was closer to 55%. I'm not a stats guy, but that seems to be a statistically significant difference. However, the F-16 take rate wasn't all that different. I was particularly surprised at the low take rate of Luke. Any other 11F insights?

Guard/res opportunities plus the fact that our community was ground zero for the great PC witch hunt by a bunch of dickless leadership. Several canned FS/CCs later it's not surprising that F-16 guys are the last ones to sign on the dotted line. The community morale is in the shitter maybe even moreso than the average 11F.

But they are getting the numbers they need. The bonus is all about those sitting on the fence and my observation is that they got a lot of them. They don't care about overpaying the ~20% of kool-aid drinkers because that's a necessary evil that is tied to getting the fence sitters to sign. Combine that with basically banning viper guys from UPT/ALO types of queep and the machine keeps on ticking.

[flyjetz]

Bomber bases:

Minot - 100%

Barksdale - 73%

Ellsworth - 80%

Dyess - 67%

Whiteman - 58%

Total - 70%

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 4

[Rusty Pipes]

Guard/res opportunities plus the fact that our community was ground zero for the great PC witch hunt by a bunch of dickless leadership. Several canned FS/CCs later it's not surprising that F-16 guys are the last ones to sign on the dotted line. The community morale is in the shitter maybe even moreso than the average 11F.

But they are getting the numbers they need. The bonus is all about those sitting on the fence and my observation is that they got a lot of them. They don't care about overpaying the ~20% of kool-aid drinkers because that's a necessary evil that is tied to getting the fence sitters to sign. Combine that with basically banning viper guys from UPT/ALO types of queep and the machine keeps on ticking.

You can take a lot from looking at the take numbers this year, but I don't think even Big Blue will know until next year if they need to go into panic mode or not. Lots of Guard/Reserve opportunities out there apparently based on how many of my buds (both 11M/F) I see on a weekly basis posting on Facebook that they "have made the very difficult decision to leave Active Duty". The ~20% of Kool-Aid drinkers you mention is drastically underestimated based on the obvious numbers from School/IDE locations (Maxwell, Newport, Leavenworth... even USAFA maybe). If anything I'd say the ~20% would be the actual fence sitters (just a guess). Look at the big Ops bases like Charleston/McChord, Shaw, McConnell/Fairchild, Elmendorf... what was their take rate? Even at that... how many of them were school selects who may have slipped under the wire to be eligible for the bonus this year. The other reason next year may be more telling is because 1) the bonus was released so late this year which could be a legit claim as to why a few left AD this year instead of signing... especially if they were offered an assignment and didn't want to take on the ADSC past their UPT commitment 2) unless there is a major change there will be no illusions of multiple IDE "candidates" going to school next year from your typical Ops base with what was said will basically be 1 candidate per MAJCOM getting to go (read 4 Star's non-select speech writer or something along those lines) 3) Are the Airlines actually going to start hiring guys? I'm not even talking about the huge BOOM that Butters is positive won't happen... but if 2-3 guys in the Sq get hired and easily walk next door to the Reserve Squadron then the grass will look a hell of a lot greener, especially for non-school guys.

Nothing is for sure, but if you have a large Ops base that had 10 eligible for the ACP and only 5 signed I'd say it is a pretty safe bet that the AF just lost 5 IP/EPs. I'd also guess that of the 5 that did sign 2 or 3 were school selects going next year. Best case the AF got 3 fence sitters; just based on the 3 points I made above... will they get those guys next year? Who knows... but since they won't say who the target of the ACP actually is we can't really determine if it was a "success" or not. Just something to thinks about...

Holy shit man, we get it. ....So what's your solution? Lots of school-selects get out....anecdotally (since that seems to fly around here), I know 4 school selects that have said 'No thanks' over the last year and got out. So it seems to me that the AF still needs to incentivize that group....especially since, on paper at least, they're our best people. The only group that's truly shown their cards when they meet ACP eligibility are first-look guys who have orders in hand to school. For those guys, you're right....the AF can probably safely assume they're all-in. ....So make them ineligible? Ok, but that's a very small pool of guys and it's not going to save the AF a lot of money in the grand scheme of things. ....And the consequence is that it'll piss those dudes off to no end and set a precedent that disincentives pilots (i.e. the group with the highest senior leadership potential in the AF) from striving to go to school first-look.

I completely agree with you, Hoss... I don't know what the answer is, but I think they need to come up with a completely different way to attack what will surely be a major problem for our pilot force without a draconian stop loss. Throwing money at the problem certainly doesn't work... something like a Career Aviator program might. Maybe homesteading? Maybe real masters degrees programs at real schools as an incentive? Hopefully someone wearing Stars is thinking about this, but based on the solution of a 10 year bonus for just some people this year I'm not too optimistic that is happening.

[11F]

ViperStud: Thanks for the insight. That's exactly what I was wondering.

HOSS: I couldn't agree more with your last response to Rusty. Anecdotally again, I have to friends who recently got out. One was a 2nd look non-school select who had orders to ACSC. He turned down the bonus and his school assignment and went Reserves. My other friend is a patch-wearing school-select with orders to ACSC 1st look. He wasn't bonus eligible, but he turned down his school assignment, got out and went to a different Reserve unit.

It is rare for a guy to be a 1st look pilot who is bonus eligible and has orders to school due to pilot training graduation dates and the fiscal year, so the previously mentioned criteria wouldn't do much (1st look school assignment pilots not being offered the bonus).

[Rusty Pipes]

Is the purpose of the ACP to keep pilots in or is it an incentive to keep a certain group of pilots in? The AF would be dumb to not offer the ACP to someone who is a select because just being a select doesn't mean they have any intention of staying. I know plenty of guys who checked all the boxes and played the game that came out as selects that were either on the fence or had no intention of staying in for 20. I would say that it is a safe bet that the vast majority of those who take the School assignment are in it for the long haul (not to sound too obvious). If the ACP is partly to ensure they get as many of those selects to commit then that part of the ACP is very successful. If the other part of the ACP is to get people they need to actually be pilots to stay then I think they need to think of other ways besides money to give them an incentive to stay.

Who knows if there is going to be this major airline hiring boom in the next few years, but there will clearly be far more flying opportunities outside of the Air Force in the next few years and we seem to be looking at what will be a pilot shortage in the Air Force. Maybe this has been done in small groups by a survey or something (I've certainly never been asked), but how many pilots have been asked the simple question... What would it take to make you stay? Money will obviously work for some so the current ACP will be somewhat effective, but they probably should look at other incentives... maybe even a combination?

1) Career aviator program that I mentioned earlier; do you think if the O-4 results came out and someone who was not a select was offered to stay in through 20 and just fly (some sort of conditional guarantee to stay flying) that they would get them to commit (essentially another 10 yr ADSC that would guarantee retirement with a shot at O-5 but that's it)? I know lots of guys who said they would have taken that in a heartbeat. They may not have to offer it to everyone, but I'll bet you would get a line of people willing to do that.

2) Optional homestead; If the AF gave you a set of orders saying you can go to Base XYZ and stay there for 5-6 years would that get someone to stay in? I might consider that for stability for my family or if I really liked the location (got it, some places nobody will want to do that).

3) AAD assignment; would you sign a 5 yr ADSC to be allowed to attend a 2 year AAD program at the University of your choosing to get a degree of your choosing? I know lots of guys who would jump at that in a second (my cousin is a West Point grad and said they have a program like that in the Army, not exactly sure of the details but he is a full time student as an O-3 right now).

4) Good deal incentive; I'm already kicking my own ass for even suggesting this (Chang/Liquid don't read this), but would it be worth a 5 year ADSC for that Gulfstream to MacDill or Hickam or maybe to fly cadets around at USAFA to some people? (standing by for lots of spears for that one).

Maybe the ACP thread isn't the best place for these questions because it deals more with pilot retention for a no kidding empty cockpit pilot shortage, but the ACP is what I would see as just part of the solution to partly secure school selects for the long haul as well as normal retention with the other suggestions more targeted at keeping those who aren't necessarily on the command track from jumping ship when their initial ADSC ends (i.e. the AF actually needs pilots to be pilots). Big Blue has had pilots by the balls since 9/11 because if you really live to fly like many of us then you had no other options on the outside... based on the "If you don't like it you can leave and you'll be easily replaced" comments that many have heard first hand from multiple GOs, they knew it and have taken advantage of it. If even half of the supposed airline boom actually happens in the next few years then AF pilots will find themselves in a position that we have not been in a long time... where the AF needs us more than we need them.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Rusty Pipes

[ViperStud]

Is the purpose of the ACP to keep pilots in or is it an incentive to keep a certain group of pilots in? The AF would be dumb to not offer the ACP to someone who is a select because just being a select doesn't mean they have any intention of staying. Words words words...

The purpose is to do both - keep pilots in for raw numbers and to target specific pilot groups. Raw numbers are good because too many fliers is better than too few - we've been manning 11F billets at staff with 11X guys for a while and it will only get more intense as 11M types start going back to UPT to fly T-38s. They are obviously targeting certain groups as well by offering an extra $100K to fighter guys that 11Ms will not get.

My point about the 20% number was not that only that percentage of golden-boys (school selects, aka the only ones going to school) will sign the bonus; my point was that basically all of them will - and that is probably about 20% of the bonus eligibles. Someone earlier shacked it - an additional 10% will stay in regardless because they lack the initiative/skillset to succeed on the outside. Another ~20% wouldn't sign no matter what was offered (within reason) because they are pissed at active duty. By my math that leaves about half of the people that are generally happy and have had good assignments (kind of where I'm at) or really are on the fence about staying in because they know there are other opportunities in the aviation world that would keep them happy (I often find myself in this position too).

That ~50% is who they are targeting and it's exactly why the 11F bonus is higher right now - because they are short on them for the forseeable future so they need a higher take rate. So they end up paying roughly 30% of eligibles (golden boys plus bottom 10%) as a simple cost of doing business. Why - because although I bet the numbers above are pretty accurate, there is overlap. I know several school selects who are not just ass-kissers, they are genuine good dudes and are punching to join the guard or pursue other goals in life. There are also bottom feeders that are pissed at the AF and want out. There are also some on-the-fence types that luck out with timing and find out their next assignment (and thus get a good look at their future AF prospects) right before they have to sign the bonus. Good assignment means they say; bad assignment means they punch, even if they had been leaning the other way for a while. Because of all those variables, it's impossible for AFPC to target individuals and say "that dude is going to stay in without a bonus because he is going to school." All they can do is look at a spreadsheet and say "oh shit we are way short on 11Fs we need to give them more money, STAT!" Oh and by the way it essentially IS a career aviator program - if I sign it will keep me to 21 years. Maybe I retire as an O-5, maybe plus/minus one rank from there, but the nine YAS is no coincidence.

Your other ideas are fodder for sport-bitching sessions but not much more. AAD for two years paid time at a civvie university plus the ~year on the backside to get you back to IP status is a poor return on investment for the AF unless they start getting way more desperate. Homesteading dudes would only make the other bases an even worse deal - with guys homesteading at Hurbie, more AFSOC dudes will punch because they know there will be fewer billets out of Cannon every VML. It creates second/third order problems for the have-nots. Good deal incentive = interesting. That being said, a non-current type rating (by the time you can get out) probably isn't going to be worth it for most dudes. Those Gulfstream and Global jobs are not a dime a dozen on the outside so most guys will end up flying for the airlines anyway and either being sent to CAE/FlightSafety by their carrier or picking up a ~9K$ B737 type to go to Southwest.

In the end it still all comes down to money. AFPC is powerless to address issues like ops tempo, morale, which bases remain open, rampant careerism and the bad leadership that results from it. That's for guys like Welsh (still waiting on that vector...) and our civilian leadership (haven't even passed a budget in 4 years...) to fix - don't hold your breath. The only thing AFPC can realistically do is throw money at the problem. And eventually it will work. Everyone has a price, all that's left to do is negotiate.

Edited October 3, 2013 by ViperStud

[Rusty Pipes]

My point about the 20% number was not that only that percentage of golden-boys (school selects, aka the only ones going to school) will sign the bonus; my point was that basically all of them will - and that is probably about 20% of the bonus eligibles.

Oh and by the way it essentially IS a career aviator program - if I sign it will keep me to 21 years. Maybe I retire as an O-5, maybe plus/minus one rank from there, but the nine YAS is no coincidence.

VS... Not disagreeing with most of your points, but not sure the numbers worked out for this round. Unless I'm reading it wrong, just looking at the numbers per location the obvious IDE locations (Maxwell, Newport, Leavenworth... possibly Pentagon and USAFA) it looks like those are significantly more than just 20% of the total takers this year. Maybe that wasn't exactly your point. Admittedly, I could be reading the take numbers wrong too. Also, it could just be timing where this year's ACP eligibles may be on their 3rd school look where a larger percentage of that year group went to IDE as both selects and eligibles which could skew the numbers.

When I say career aviator program I don't mean that signing the bonus gets you through 20 years (you're right, that is what this ACP does for the 11Fs), I mean that it would be like they do in some other Air Forces where you will be in an active flying position and actually flying for the rest of your career. If you tell me I can sign a 10 yr ADSC and be guaranteed to be actively flying then that is an incentive... ask me to sign a 10 yr ADSC where you may spend the last 5-6 yrs on Staff writing policy in a non-flying billet, not so much.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Rusty Pipes

[ViperStud]

VS... Not disagreeing with most of your points, but not sure the numbers worked out for this round. Unless I'm reading it wrong, just looking at the numbers per location the obvious IDE locations (Maxwell, Newport, Leavenworth... possibly Pentagon and USAFA) it looks like those are significantly more than just 20% of the total takers this year. Maybe that wasn't exactly your point.

When I say career aviator program I don't mean that signing the bonus gets you through 20 years (you're right, that is what this ACP does for the 11Fs), I mean that it would be like they do in some other Air Forces where you will be in an active flying position and actually flying for the rest of your career. If you tell me I can sign a 10 yr ADSC and be guaranteed to be actively flying then that is an incentive... ask me to sign a 10 yr ADSC where you may spend the last 5-6 yrs on Staff writing policy in a non-flying billet, not so much.

I haven't looked at the raw numbers - I'll take your word for it. No surprise though that the chosen ones are signing. Still, it's worth it for the AF to pay that money because an individual targeting of people by their specific circumstances would alienate more than it would keep, especially if the geniuses at AFPC are the ones trying to make the decision on who to target.

You're spot-on with the idea that guaranteed flying is an incentive. That would probably be a huge incentive for the heavy guys because being current when you leave is kind of important. I'm willing to bet that is how it is going to work out for the fighter guys that sign for the next year or two. If you're a burner and want to make rank, then you will go to school/staff and learn how to put it in your mouth.

If you are an average fighter guy and sign, you are probably going to stay in the (or a) cockpit for the vast majority of that time. I know there are naysayers out there and I am as cynical as the next guy but the facts (at least in the Viper) are: we haven't sent dudes to UAVs in forever & they have a pipeline now, very few ALO assignments, you don't go to staff without school, we don't even have enough dudes to fill UPT billets so if we end up with extra bodies it's not like they are getting sent to basket weaving academy. You pretty much have to pursue an assignment out of a cockpit to get one right now.

YMMV by the airframe you fly, but the multirole guys (Viper and Mudhen drivers) are looking good if you want to stay in a cockpit. Raptors are obviously safe. JSF guys are actually overmanned right now but I bet that will change if deliveries stay on schedule. A-10 guys and F-15C guys should be worried. I think it sucks from a national defense perspective, but Welsh has basically thrown down that single-mission aircraft are the first to get chopped. I just hope that if it does happen the Eagles go to the guard. Not having those bubbas around is a risk this country cannot take with the MR rate of the Raptor. And that's coming from a Viper driver.

[Rusty Pipes]

I haven't looked at the raw numbers - I'll take your word for it. No surprise though that the chosen ones are signing. Still, it's worth it for the AF to pay that money because an individual targeting of people by their specific circumstances would alienate more than it would keep, especially if the geniuses at AFPC are the ones trying to make the decision on who to target.

You're spot-on with the idea that guaranteed flying is an incentive. That would probably be a huge incentive for the heavy guys because being current when you leave is kind of important. I'm willing to bet that is how it is going to work out for the fighter guys that sign for the next year or two. If you're a burner and want to make rank, then you will go to school/staff and learn how to put it in your mouth.

If you are an average fighter guy and sign, you are probably going to stay in the (or a) cockpit for the vast majority of that time. I know there are naysayers out there and I am as cynical as the next guy but the facts (at least in the Viper) are: we haven't sent dudes to UAVs in forever & they have a pipeline now, very few ALO assignments, you don't go to staff without school, we don't even have enough dudes to fill UPT billets so if we end up with extra bodies it's not like they are getting sent to basket weaving academy. You pretty much have to pursue an assignment out of a cockpit to get one right now.

YMMV by the airframe you fly, but the multirole guys (Viper and Mudhen drivers) are looking good if you want to stay in a cockpit. Raptors are obviously safe. JSF guys are actually overmanned right now but I bet that will change if deliveries stay on schedule. A-10 guys and F-15C guys should be worried. I think it sucks from a national defense perspective, but Welsh has basically thrown down that single-mission aircraft are the first to get chopped. I just hope that if it does happen the Eagles go to the guard. Not having those bubbas around is a risk this country cannot take with the MR rate of the Raptor. And that's coming from a Viper driver.

I completely agree that we should keep giving the ACP to the school guys... they most definitely shouldn't be penalized for success. There are plenty of those who fit the mold of the current managers we have in power that couldn't lead a bowling ball down a hill, but there are also plenty of really sharp and good dudes/dudettes there as well. Up until this year there was a pretty big carrot of at least the opportunity for non-school selects to go to IDE as candidates... that is probably the most important group of pilots the AF absolutely needs to keep and it is probably going to take more than just the current ACP to get the majority of them to stay since going to School is no longer going to be an option.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Rusty Pipes

[ViperStud]

My CC and OG, as well as some of their peers, seem to think there is a silver lining to the school thing. The end result is that there will be more non-residence guys filling CC billets. In the end, this favors the concept of having your best leaders get a shot at being a CC. Overachievers will still do well, but the guys that are really sharp and didn't get selected for school on their O-4 board might have more opportunities because there will be fewer IDE grads to pass around to the staff/CC billets.

I'm not sure how much I buy it: too many moving parts to really guess what the end result of fewer school slots will be. I'm a candidate and I think I would have had a great shot at school next year in my third look under normal circumstances. Obviously now it's a longshot. I still like my chances at O-5 if I stay in, regardless of school attendance. If I am a CC then great, if not and I end up being a crusty old O-5 (or even O-4) at 20 years and I will do everything in my power to make sure the young dudes grow up in the mold of a true fighter pilot.

Maybe I'm missing something, but the fewer school slots (and "guaranteed" promotion that goes along with it) doesn't really change the math for me too much. Neither does the increased money. I'm still not sold 100% either way. Hopefully I end up with an assignment next summer as expected and I will make a decision based on all the data I have at the time. I'm staring at 8 more years (probably a Korea and two other assignments in some order) that will probably keep me in a fighter cockpit. That piece is way more important to me than going to school.

[Techsan]

Is this the IDE/promotion/PRF thread? I thought it was supposed to be about the bonus.

[C-21.Pilot]

Honestly, at this point - who cares?

It's apparent that nothing will change at the puzzle palace. I'm glad that those folks who signed, did and I wish the best. But, don't come crying in 2 years when you get that unwanted assignment, deployment, etc. You reap what you sow.

Edited October 4, 2013 by C-21.Pilot

[sputnik]

I can't find the current stats, which I felt like I looked at a few months ago. Can someone post a link? Help a brother out.

[C17Driver]

I can't find the current stats, which I felt like I looked at a few months ago. Can someone post a link? Help a brother out.

I don't have the link...but search on the portal for Air Force Statistics. Last I looked the ACP take rate was over 64% for this year.

[Smokin]

From an 11F perspective, I'd have to say I am surprised. If you look at the take rates for F-15C, F-15E, and F-22, they were all near 70-75%. This is a group whose take rate last year was closer to 55%. I'm not a stats guy, but that seems to be a statistically significant difference. However, the F-16 take rate wasn't all that different. I was particularly surprised at the low take rate of Luke. Any other 11F insights?

Guard/res opportunities plus the fact that our community was ground zero for the great PC witch hunt by a bunch of dickless leadership. Several canned FS/CCs later it's not surprising that F-16 guys are the last ones to sign on the dotted line. The community morale is in the shitter maybe even moreso than the average 11F.

But they are getting the numbers they need. The bonus is all about those sitting on the fence and my observation is that they got a lot of them. They don't care about overpaying the ~20% of kool-aid drinkers because that's a necessary evil that is tied to getting the fence sitters to sign. Combine that with basically banning viper guys from UPT/ALO types of queep and the machine keeps on ticking.

Sorry, late to the fight. Another big reason I think you're seeing with the low F-16 take rate is that of the fighters, the Vipers have been getting the pointless deployments to Korea for the past 5+ years with no hope in sight of that ending anytime soon. When a dude spends 18 months at the Kun only to be "deployed" back there six months later for another seven months is crushing. I know other fighters have not so fun "deployments" that really look more like a six+ month TDYs, but I think the Vipers have had a disproportionate amount to the worst locations.

Also, don't think that just because someone is a school select that he is a sure thing for the AF. I know multiple selects who 7-day'd either school or another F-16 assignment. Guys are just simply getting burned out and only see flying less and less in their future (specifically for them and for fighters in general). The good deals cross countries/TDYs and flying CT above RAP that used to recharge guys just don't happen like they used to.

[11F]

The take rate is just a hair under 69...percent. Oh sweet irony!

[HercDude]

The take rate is just a hair under 69...percent. Oh sweet irony!

What kind of hair?

[brabus]

Definitely a red cunt...wait, I've said too much, guess MEO will be at my door momentarily.

[Day Man]

Apparently fighter guys are bored...

more proof of disconnect between leadership and the troops.

[Champ Kind]

Apparently fighter guys are bored...

more proof of disconnect between leadership and the troops.

I had and still have such high hopes for this CSAF, but it really seems like there is a great deal of separation between reality and his perceptions (or at least the truth he's being fed and subsequently speaking to).

[Day Man]

I can't speak for the MAF, but if you let dudes fly 3 times a week, deploy about one every 2 years/as required (in their primary role aka flying their jet), and give dudes the capability to have an impact at their level then the this pilot shortage problem solves itself.

When I left the MAF, you were either spinning up to deploy, doing reconstitution tng when you got back, or TDY (flying/PME/upgrade), so the problem is a little different. Most guys were cool with that stuff...it was the job. It was the writing quarterly Jr CGO, CGO, Pilot, Leadership, etc awards and staying late to green up slides that burned people out.

[Danny Noonin]

I can't speak for the MAF, but if you let dudes fly 3 times a week, deploy about once every 2 years/as required to get the JOB done (in their primary role aka flying their jet), and give dudes the capability to have an impact at their level then the this pilot shortage problem solves itself.

Oh, so you mean all we have to do is scrape up billions of dollars in added flying hour money and procure enough new jets and train enough people to spread the deployments to meet COCOM (not Air Force) requirements around a little thinner and the problem will solve itself?

[Danny Noonin]

Yep.

I didn't say it was easy. But you'll get better results than throwing money at people. How many CAF dudes have you met who say, "dude this job is awesome but I'm gonna go fly for Delta cause I don't make enough money."

By the way I'm not scoffing the bonus. It is better, but I don't think it will solve the problem.

But are you that far removed from reality that you think there is enough money to do that? We can't afford flying hours in the name of readiness yet you are suggesting we can afford them in the name of retention? Edited November 15, 2013 by Danny Noonin