FLEA Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, ClearedHot said: 0.375 that of Earth - really helps when you run the fuel and return calculations. SpaceX and Musk have a very iterative process that is paying dividends as they outpace the traditional "experts". Amazing to watch their progress. Its like they've somewhat adopted an agile methodology where they just keep putting a bunch of MVP's out, that generally fail, but they garner so much info off each failure that their next product is leaps and bounds ahead of the next. The real secret sauce here has to be their analytics methodology. I remember when CNN showed pictures of the Boeing cockpit side by side with the Dragon cockpit. While the Boeing cockpit looked like a traditional air and space design the dragon was next level. All large touch screens, streamlined displays and user friendly GUI's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzle Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 1 hour ago, FLEA said: // // The real secret sauce here has to be their analytics methodology. // // Seems to be a focus on mission and top leaders enforce capability vs useless political, bureaucratic bloat; a singularly focused feedback loop. Also, stragglers seem to be cut away quickly, leading their corporate lawyers to manage the fallout decisively and quickly, aka 'drag'. Seems market dominance in space lift and other space capabilities is their focus, and all else should/will fall to the wayside. Rightfully so in order to seize the initiative, and therefore reap the enormous benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FourFans Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, FLEA said: I remember when CNN showed pictures of the Boeing cockpit side by side with the Dragon cockpit. While the Boeing cockpit looked like a traditional air and space design the dragon was next level. All large touch screens, streamlined displays and user friendly GUI's Designed for show only and no actual human interface. FIFY. I completely agree with you, but let's not pretend like the Dragon was designed to actually be piloted. The astronauts are passengers in that thing with a few "oh shit" buttons within easy reach. Honestly, it's what we should expect out of the future of space travel, disappointing as it may be to knuckle dragging pilots. Edited April 24, 2023 by FourFans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLEA Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 35 minutes ago, FourFans said: FIFY. I completely agree with you, but let's not pretend like the Dragon was designed to actually be piloted. The astronauts are passengers in that thing with a few "oh shit" buttons within easy reach. Honestly, it's what we should expect out of the future of space travel, disappointing as it may be to knuckle dragging pilots. Yeah for sure. And I know the feeling. My dad was a race car driver. Wild I know. I talked to him a while back about automation, Tesla and self driving cars. Of course he's old and grumpy so he hates the idea. But he concedes that it is a better future. Less traffic accident, faster transportation, no more worrying about drinking and driving, no speeding tickets. Automation will be a traumatic hurdle for us fun loving guys but it will also be an amazing step for humanity. Maybe somewhere in the southwest desert in 100 years they'll have some car amusement parks where you can drive around an old antique by yourself a bit, who knows. BTW, I'm not sure it will even be 100 years. A lot of people believe we've already approached the cusp of AI singularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FourFans Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 42 minutes ago, FLEA said: A lot of people believe we've already approached the cusp of AI singularity. That right there should be enough to give people pause. I've read enough to convince me we're not actually all that close to a general AI, much less a singularity. Maybe within 30 years on general AI I think. But it can't be ignored that tech advancement has routinely jumped the safety barriers and resulted in leaps in practical functionality that defy human anticipation. The Germans and the tank at the beginning of WWII is a great example. AI could easily be like that where we don't know how it's actually advancing until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bfargin Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 (edited) Driverless cars will require a 100% participation approach to realize any claimed safety and efficiency gains. All cars linked together in constant communication. It will also require limits on spontaneity (the lead time for changes to routes/destinations/intermediate stops) which many times is a cause of issues/crashes currently. It will be interesting to see development over the next 10 to 20 years. Edited April 24, 2023 by bfargin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLEA Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, FourFans said: That right there should be enough to give people pause. I've read enough to convince me we're not actually all that close to a general AI, much less a singularity. Maybe within 30 years on general AI I think. But it can't be ignored that tech advancement has routinely jumped the safety barriers and resulted in leaps in practical functionality that defy human anticipation. The Germans and the tank at the beginning of WWII is a great example. AI could easily be like that where we don't know how it's actually advancing until it's too late. I generally agree with you. But I pivoted into the tech space after the Air Force when it became clear an airline career wasn't going to work well for me, my family situation, host of other factors. I work in a big data and AI space now for a major firm in the US--and I work with some REALLY REALLY BIG BRAINS. One of my new Bobs is a former quant and has a PhD in Data Science and a MSCS in AI/ML. He was the one that told me one day that AI by its nature learns exponentially. Two years ago he was at a University lecture everyone thought the capability of ChatGPT 4 was 10 years away. They were all stunned this year when the latest language model dropped. Its going to come faster than we are ready for because we cant actually grasp in our human minds how fast the exponential learning curve is. This is why you have technophiles like Elon Musk warning that we need to slow down until we can actually understand what that curve looks like. Crazy insights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooter Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 2 hours ago, FLEA said: I generally agree with you. But I pivoted into the tech space after the Air Force when it became clear an airline career wasn't going to work well for me, my family situation, host of other factors. I work in a big data and AI space now for a major firm in the US--and I work with some REALLY REALLY BIG BRAINS. One of my new Bobs is a former quant and has a PhD in Data Science and a MSCS in AI/ML. He was the one that told me one day that AI by its nature learns exponentially. Two years ago he was at a University lecture everyone thought the capability of ChatGPT 4 was 10 years away. They were all stunned this year when the latest language model dropped. Its going to come faster than we are ready for because we cant actually grasp in our human minds how fast the exponential learning curve is. This is why you have technophiles like Elon Musk warning that we need to slow down until we can actually understand what that curve looks like. Crazy insights. Do any of your big brain coworkers talk at all about how we would measure something like consciousness? That's the part I'm most curious about. The exponential nature of language learning algorithms makes sense, but at some point there's a difference between a procedural learning machine and a living, feeling, conscious entity. If we created real AI would we even know we did? Or could it maybe be created by a more primitive AI iterating on itself? 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger41 Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, Pooter said: Do any of your big brain coworkers talk at all about how we would measure something like consciousness? That's the part I'm most curious about. The exponential nature of language learning algorithms makes sense, but at some point there's a difference between a procedural learning machine and a living, feeling, conscious entity. If we created real AI would we even know we did? Or could it maybe be created by a more primitive AI iterating on itself? 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ You basically described the Turing Test (maybe intentionally?) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test All this AI stuff is very interesting, but the leap to general AI is something that I don’t necessarily believe we will get to ever. A book called “The Myth of Artificial Intelligence” (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674983519) by Erik Larson is very good on this subject. The most interesting part of it to me is that we all just kind of assume general Ai will get here because we do. It’s not following a scientific method. Algorithmic AI is incredible and the exponential growth is shocking, but making that leap to general AI is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClearedHot Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 SpaceX continues to advance the ball down the field. A few minutes ago they successfully launched Starship. It appears Starship reached space and will continue around the glob before re-entering near Hawaii. The booster was not so lucky as it had a "Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly" after the hot stage separation. SpaceX continues to outpace the traditional defense government sponsored primes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 3 hours ago, ClearedHot said: SpaceX continues to advance the ball down the field. A few minutes ago they successfully launched Starship. It appears Starship reached space and will continue around the glob before re-entering near Hawaii. The booster was not so lucky as it had a "Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly" after the hot stage separation. SpaceX continues to outpace the traditional defense government sponsored primes. Got farther than they expected. Incredible stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Ratner Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 13 hours ago, ClearedHot said: SpaceX continues to embarrass the traditional defense government sponsored primes. Fixed it for you. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biff_T Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 I wonder if Elon is hiring washed up military pilots (especially those who can't pass a flight physical anymore) to fly those beasts in the future? Sign me up. This program has made me excited about being a human again. We were made to explore. Flying in space has always been a fascinating thought for me. It's good to see someone with that same passion for space exploration, doing something to make it happen. Say what you will about Mr Musk, but he definitely is pushing mankind to be space exporers in a manner that rivals NASA in the 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Biff_T said: I wonder if Elon is hiring washed up military pilots (especially those who can't pass a flight physical anymore) to fly those beasts in the future? Sign me up. This program has made me excited about being a human again. We were made to explore. Flying in space has always been a fascinating thought for me. It's good to see someone with that same passion for space exploration, doing something to make it happen. Say what you will about Mr Musk, but he definitely is pushing mankind to be space exporers in a manner that rivals NASA in the 60s and 70s. He's got MIG-29 CAPs https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1725736974143631855?s=20 Edited November 21, 2023 by uhhello 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brabus Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 side hustle retirement gig: Flying Space X MiGs…I’m in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biff_T Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, brabus said: side hustle retirement gig: Flying Space X MiGs…I’m in! To do the job right, Elon needs at least three squadrons of those and a detachment of armed rescue helos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brabus Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 “But why armed Biff?” - Elon ”Because I fucking want them, that’s why!” - Biff ”Well I’m convinced, here’s a no limit CC, go buy what you need” - Elon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biff_T Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) We could turn every Starship launch into a carnival. 30 ship fly bys, chicks in dirndls, mud wrestling (both?), good bands and balloon rides. No Kardashians. "Let's leave this fucking planet" - Starship Edited November 21, 2023 by Biff_T No fucking Kardashians 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 (edited) The gang knocked it out of the park and then some. Crazy. 3rd launch attempt and they nail it. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1LyxBnOvzvOxN Edited March 14 by uhhello 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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