uhhello Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Smokin said: Maybe they'll declare war on Ukraine? I don't understand the thought process that Ukraine somehow should have their hands tied about what targets they can strike. I get that the rest of the world doesn't want to the war to bring other countries in, but Russia invaded and all of Russia's targets have been in Ukraine. Why should Ukraine be held back from striking Russia? With how much Russia is struggling against Ukraine, I don't imagine Putin wants the war to widen either. The interesting thing to think about if these are drone strikes; does Ukraine now have drones capable of reaching that long range of a target or are there Ukrainian SOF units inside Russia? According to Russian sources the drone which hit Dyagilevo airbase was a Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh, a Soviet-made recon drone from the 1970s and 1980s. Hilarious if true. Maybe Russia doesn't want to admit UKR has something new.... Edited December 6, 2022 by uhhello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirkDiggler Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Nice pics of a slightly used Tu-22, too bad it's missiles didn't cook off and level the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 13 hours ago, Smokin said: Maybe they'll declare war on Ukraine? I don't understand the thought process that Ukraine somehow should have their hands tied about what targets they can strike. I get that the rest of the world doesn't want to the war to bring other countries in, but Russia invaded and all of Russia's targets have been in Ukraine. Why should Ukraine be held back from striking Russia? With how much Russia is struggling against Ukraine, I don't imagine Putin wants the war to widen either. The interesting thing to think about if these are drone strikes; does Ukraine now have drones capable of reaching that long range of a target or are there Ukrainian SOF units inside Russia? I don't understand that thought process either, but I also haven't heard anyone make that claim. If Russia is in Ukraine, Ukraine should have every justification to hit every military target inside Russia. But why haven't they? If anyone wants Ukraine to have it's hands tied, it would be NATO as it would also tie the hands of Russia. NATO benefits from a protracted limited conflict in Ukraine that bleeds Russia until they pack it up and go home. Ukraine itself likely doesn't have the patience as their homeland is being destroyed, so they lob a 1970s Soviet drone at a strategic nuclear base. They stand to benefit from a wider war. Events like this puts us at the threshold of moving beyond conventional conflict. Russia likely believes they can still achieve whatever goals they have with a limited conflict within Ukraine. I personally would like to see Russia fail miserably, but what does that look like? De-escalation and withdrawal.? There are no trends in that direction. History has shown that Russia's definition of "struggle" with regards to combat losses is somewhat different than ours, so we should hesitate to use it as a gauge of success/failure. It seems that unless all sides of the conflict are willing to make significant concessions, and that doesn't seem to be the case, the only other option is escalation by striking more targets within Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 Turns out their hands were tied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, torqued said: Turns out their hands were tied. Did they put GPS lockout zones on them or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurelySerious Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Won’t fire ATACMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Did they put GPS lockout zones on them or something? We’ve always maintained that capability through crypto.We did the same with partner nations during the GWOT exercised use of GPS guided munitions. Yeah we gave them to the nation for their inventory, but we held back the SKL with the codes that make it useful for a level of control. Doing so puts our say so directly into their targeting cycle. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) Poland news the past few days also seems to point to escalation and a widening conflict. Ukraine will be attempting to fight back the Russians during the winter in a possible complete blackout. If they struggle with that, we should see all the below pour into Western Ukraine from Poland. 5 Dec: First 600-700 of 2,400 US tanks and vehicles arrive in Poland ahead of The Big Red One for Atlantic Resolve. https://www.polandatsea.com/american-military-equipment-arrived-in-gdynia/ 6 Dec: Korea delivers tanks and howitzers. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/25/poland-receives-korean-tanks-howitzers/ 6 Dec: Poland to draft up to 200,000. https://tvpworld.com/64936493/poland-plans-to-draft-200000-for-military-training-next-year 6 Dec: State Department agrees to sell another 116 M1A1s and other equip to Poland: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-m1a1-abrams-main-battle-tanks Poland to buy hundreds of HIMARS and Korean rocket systems. (Ukraine has 20). https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/10/14/poland-to-buy-hundreds-of-s-korean-chunmoo-multiple-rocket-launchers/ Edited December 8, 2022 by torqued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FourFans Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/8/2022 at 7:50 AM, torqued said: Poland news the past few days also seems to point to escalation and a widening conflict. Ukraine will be attempting to fight back the Russians during the winter in a possible complete blackout. If they struggle with that, we should see all the below pour into Western Ukraine from Poland. 5 Dec: First 600-700 of 2,400 US tanks and vehicles arrive in Poland ahead of The Big Red One for Atlantic Resolve. https://www.polandatsea.com/american-military-equipment-arrived-in-gdynia/ 6 Dec: Korea delivers tanks and howitzers. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/25/poland-receives-korean-tanks-howitzers/ 6 Dec: Poland to draft up to 200,000. https://tvpworld.com/64936493/poland-plans-to-draft-200000-for-military-training-next-year 6 Dec: State Department agrees to sell another 116 M1A1s and other equip to Poland: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-m1a1-abrams-main-battle-tanks Poland to buy hundreds of HIMARS and Korean rocket systems. (Ukraine has 20). https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/10/14/poland-to-buy-hundreds-of-s-korean-chunmoo-multiple-rocket-launchers/ Someone's looking for a body of water labelled "Gulf of Tonkin" somewhere between Poland and Russia... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air. https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 (edited) 14 minutes ago, torqued said: Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air. https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA KC-135 strikes. Brings up a question. Does the mother ship get credit for the strikes or is it the actual drone? Edited January 28 by uhhello 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, uhhello said: KC-135 strikes. Brings up a question. Does the mother ship get credit for the strikes or is it the actual drone? Depends. Are the tanker guys WIC grads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 28 minutes ago, torqued said: Depends. Are the tanker guys WIC grads? The boom is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, torqued said: Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air. https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA 7 cities apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 (edited) 1 hour ago, uhhello said: 7 cities apparently. And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609 Edited January 29 by torqued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzle Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 hours ago, torqued said: And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609 https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential I wonder what a mapped out Iran nuclear sites versus earthquake epicenter would show? Someone has to be putting them on the same map... ...or it's ordinary quakes along their fault lines crisscrossing Iran 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609Some SAP/STO planner:“Dammit…. People are gonna find out about the Earthquake gun!”Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirkDiggler Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Lots of speculation over on Twitter about who was responsible and where things originated. Be interesting to see the real story/data. Israel Strikes Iran Amid International Push to Contain Tehran - WSJ Either way, things blowing up in Iran, no clearly responsible party, and videos on Twitter of Iranian citizens cheering some of the strikes. Not a bad way to start a Sunday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 (edited) CIA Director Bill Burns arrived in Israel on Friday. https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-escalation-cia-chief-said-visiting-israel-west-bank/ Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will arrive in Israel tomorrow - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blinken-begins-middle-east-trip-amid-spate-violence-2023-01-29/ Vid of the Khoy earthquake during the strikes on Iran yesterday. Looks like the earthquake caused some electrical transformers to explode. https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1619522084346138624?s=20&t=yCwJEv6gCVydRFnFUpMPOA EDIT: Aircraft are striking multiple targets in Syria now at the same location we had aircraft over yesterday (Al-Bukamal, Syria and Al Qaim, Iraq). Edited January 29 by torqued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 Lots of action today. This apparently is more than a slap on the wrist. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Headquarters just got smashed in Mahabad, Iran. This was the site of one of the heaviest crackdowns during the recent protests. https://twitter.com/gchahal/status/1619793176734359552?s=20&t=Ug9bHYNdfQxcLM8oe8tXlw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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