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Russian Ukraine shenanigans


08Dawg

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6 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Worthwhile analysis of the bridge strike; I did not realize it was detonated via suicide truck bomb: Link

This and NS2 sabotage are potentially pivotal incidents shaping the next few months. And nobody is taking credit and it’s not obvious who did it. Very strange.

The Ukrainians knew this would royally piss off Putin. Better to leave things somewhat ambiguous than to invite his wrath. Looks like they got it anyway. Today’s missile strikes didn’t hit a single militarily significant target, instead hitting parks, pedestrian bridges, and playgrounds. Putin continues to do a great job recruiting pissed off Ukrainians who want nothing more than to kill untrained, poorly equipped, elderly Russian “soldiers” by the bushel. 

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22 hours ago, Prozac said:

The Ukrainians knew this would royally piss off Putin. Better to leave things somewhat ambiguous than to invite his wrath. Looks like they got it anyway. Today’s missile strikes didn’t hit a single militarily significant target, instead hitting parks, pedestrian bridges, and playgrounds. Putin continues to do a great job recruiting pissed off Ukrainians who want nothing more than to kill untrained, poorly equipped, elderly Russian “soldiers” by the bushel. 

Anyone care to comment about whether-or-not Russia is running low on expendables (not humans).  Maybe poking the bear (STS) works if he isn't being fed - eventually he'll run out of energy (and resources) to fight?

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Anyone care to comment about whether-or-not Russia is running low on expendables (not humans).  Maybe poking the bear (STS) works if he isn't being fed - eventually he'll run out of energy (and resources) to fight?

When you are actively shooting as much as 60k rounds of artillery a day, nobody currently has industrial capacity to maintain that.

Buying ordnance from North Korean stockpiles isn’t a sign you have this going well for you logistically.


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On 10/8/2022 at 3:31 PM, ThreeHoler said:

NYT said truck bomb.

As per usual the NYT got it WRONG.  The bridge was actually attacked by a SOF team using a remote controlled boat that maneuvered a barge laden with a LOT of explosives into place under the bridge.  Like their cousins at the NYT, Russia was quick to blame a truck bomb and even named the driver. 

Good story and analysis here.  They even found the remote controlled boat afterwards.

 

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-fsb-arrests-eight-crimea-bridge-blast-2022-10-12/

Russia still says truck bomb.

“The FSB said the explosive device was camouflaged in rolls of construction polyethylene film on 22 pallets with a total weight of 22.7 tonnes, and moved from Ukraine to Russia via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia.”

Did I think it was a truck bomb? Undecided at the time which is why I said “NYT said…” Now? Not likely, and also not as likely that Ukraine did it. The FSB release gives more credibility to Russia doing it themselves to justify increasing their attacks.


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35 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I'm not an expert, but when I was watching the videos from the day of the explosion, it sure didn't look to me like the blast originated from the bridge.

If you watch the new CCTV video you can see the nose of the barge as it comes under the bridge and detonates. 

In other news, Ukraine "claims" to have shot down four Russian Helicopters in 18 minutes - presumably Ka-52s.

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1 hour ago, ThreeHoler said:

 


The train was supposedly stopped on the bridge in violation of normal transport rules.

 

interesting.  It looked like tanker cars which most likely would have fuel and had they known the train schedule and timed it that well....that is some good intel.

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5 hours ago, ecugringo said:

interesting.  It looked like tanker cars which most likely would have fuel and had they known the train schedule and timed it that well....that is some good intel.

Slides were in Times New Roman and not Calibri so it was destined for success.

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