Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[afaf]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

 

One thing I find remarkable is how similar the pretense for this invasion is to the South Osettia conflict of 2008. This is taken directly from the Wikipedia page. 

"Following the election of Vladimir Putin in Russia in 2000 and a pro-Western change of power in Georgia in 2003, relations between Russia and Georgia began to deteriorate, reaching a full diplomatic crisis by April 2008..... Russia accused Georgia of 'aggression against South Ossetia',^[46] and launched a full-scale land, air and sea invasion of Georgia on 8 August which Russia called a "peace enforcement" operation."

Just replace Georgia with Ukraine and Ossetia with Donbas and you can see Putin's run this playbook before. Georgia ended after a few days also when Putin's forces began facing more resistance than anticipated but it took France to negotiate a peace fire. 

 

I had similar thoughts as well.  Then expanding on those thoughts:

 

1. How long are Georgia and Ukraine going to hold onto the hope that they get to join NATO? They've both fought wars against Russia, propped up by Western support.  How long before they come to the conclusion we're using them for cannon fodder against are adversary?  I mean our support vs an actual Russian invasion, I still think we come out ahead as the system of beliefs they'd rather align with.  But if you've got any fence sitters, how long before they become disenfranchised and say screw America?  I mean Georgia had one of the biggest contingents in Afghanistan, in an attempt to show NATO they were serious.  Hell they were in Iraq with us too and had to be flown out of Iraq to go defend their own country against Russia.  After a decade of that, and we still haven't let them in NATO, because we don't want to piss off the Russians primarily.    Vice actually did a short video about similar thoughts.  Say what you want about their lean or bias, they into places most news companies will not send people.  

 

 

2.  And then the second thought, maybe now is the time Georgia attempt to take back South Ossetia and Abkhazia?  Russia's probably never been more distracted?

 

 

 

 

[VMFA187]

14 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

Or, it goes to show how easy it is to create mythology in 2022 and people will really believe anything no matter how outlandish.

The reality is likely that most of the Ukrainian kills have been through SAMs/Manpads and most of their air force was destroyed on the ground with very few if any air to air kills.

Valid. These were my first thoughts when I saw that DCS video:

1) I want to believe this is real.

2) The deck is the deck!

3) Where was the IRCCM?!

4) A viscap can f*ck up anyone's day.

[Majestik Møøse]

17 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

Or, it goes to show how easy it is to create mythology in 2022 and people will really believe anything no matter how outlandish.

The reality is likely that most of the Ukrainian kills have been through SAMs/Manpads and most of their air force was destroyed on the ground with very few if any air to air kills.

Ghost of Kiev is better thought of as the Ukrainian resolve personified.

[Buddy Spike]

Just now, Majestik Møøse said:

Ghost of Kiev is better thought of as the Ukrainian resolve personified.

Or one nerd's Ace Combat fantasy from half a world away gone viral to sell merch....

 

I've heard it both ways.

[FLEA]

13 minutes ago, afaf said:

I had similar thoughts as well.  Then expanding on those thoughts:

 

1. How long are Georgia and Ukraine going to hold onto the hope that they get to join NATO? They've both fought wars against Russia, propped up by Western support.  How long before they come to the conclusion we're using them for cannon fodder against are adversary?  I mean our support vs an actual Russian invasion, I still think we come out ahead as the system of beliefs they'd rather align with.  But if you've got any fence sitters, how long before they become disenfranchised and say screw America?  I mean Georgia had one of the biggest contingents in Afghanistan, in an attempt to show NATO they were serious.  Hell they were in Iraq with us too and had to be flown out of Iraq to go defend their own country against Russia.  After a decade of that, and we still haven't let them in NATO, because we don't want to piss off the Russians primarily.    Vice actually did a short video about similar thoughts.  Say what you want about their lean or bias, they into places most news companies will not send people.  

 

 

2.  And then the second thought, maybe now is the time Georgia attempt to take back South Ossetia and Abkhazia?  Russia's probably never been more distracted?

 

 

 

 

All good points and I can see Ukraine coming out of this with a bit of spite for the west. In there darkest hour did we do enough to show them we are serious about our partnership? I dunno. I know stuff is probably going on behind the scenes too well never hear about though. 

Regarding Vice, I knew they were crazy mutha fuckers when they did their ISIS Mosul episode and I saw them standing near a grain tower we had bombed the shit out of that week. Area was swarming with ISIS. 

[DirkDiggler]

Pictures of long lines of Ukrainians volunteering to defend Kyiv; also reports of Ukrainian expats in Europe returning home to defend Ukraine.  Anyone know if there’s any organizations forming from countries other than Ukraine to help them fight?

[VMFA187]

Just now, DirkDiggler said:

Pictures of long lines of Ukrainians volunteering to defend Kyiv; also reports of Ukrainian expats in Europe returning home to defend Ukraine.  Anyone know if there’s any organizations forming from countries other than Ukraine to help them fight?

I'd man up a Flanker if I weren't scared of the potential blue on blue...

[Prozac]

Good article discussing the wake up call the West is receiving at the moment. Hopefully voices like this become dominant in the current geopolitical discussion. It’s time to acknowledge reality and wean ourselves away from the illiberal, totalitarian influences in the world. 
 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/us-europe-russia-putin-new-world/622917/

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

Quote

In the 21 years since President George W. Bush declared Putin a man he could trust—having apparently peered into his soul—the Russian leader invaded Georgia, backed Assad in Syria, intervened in the U.S. election, annexed Crimea, armed separatists in Ukraine (who then shot down a Dutch aircraft), assassinated enemies in Britain and Germany, and, then, finally, launched a full-scale invasion of a sovereign European country. And still leaders across the West—among the populist right and the populist left, from Donald Trump in the U.S. to the Stop the War Coalition in Britain—defend, explain, excuse, or even praise Putin.

Let's also not forget he ordered a chemical attack inside the UK, which killed innocent bystanders instead of their target. I really think the best way forward is for Europe to rid themselves of natural gas power plants and switch to nuclear. I don't see any other way to cripple Russia.

[Waingro]

44 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

Or, it goes to show how easy it is to create mythology in 2022 and people will really believe anything no matter how outlandish.

The reality is likely that most of the Ukrainian kills have been through SAMs/Manpads and most of their air force was destroyed on the ground with very few if any air to air kills.

Nailed it. 

 

[Skitzo]

I have given this a watch/listen multiple times and have found it eerily familiar to some of the parallels to our modern society.

Not entirely spot on but close in a lot of areas.






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[Prozac]

Photo from 2013 but I still like it

[Sua Sponte]

 

[Danger41]

Posted on Instagram, former Thunderbird Pilot/Eagle guy Dozen Aldridge says that he has reliable first hand sources that say the “Ghost of Kyiv” was Colonel Olaksanser “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko. Retired former Ukrainian SU-27 demo pilot that came out of retirement for the war. Unknown veracity of any of that and I haven’t personally reviewed the HUD tapes or 781’s so scoff away.

[Sua Sponte]

 

[FLEA]

23 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

Posted on Instagram, former Thunderbird Pilot/Eagle guy Dozen Aldridge says that he has reliable first hand sources that say the “Ghost of Kyiv” was Colonel Olaksanser “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko. Retired former Ukrainian SU-27 demo pilot that came out of retirement for the war. Unknown veracity of any of that and I haven’t personally reviewed the HUD tapes or 781’s so scoff away.

The importance of the Ghost of Kyiv isnt to us but to the Ukranian people. Its a symbol of hope in a desperate time and despite how weak the veracity of the story is, its important for the people of Ukraine, if you support them, to keep it alive. The very idea of the Ghost of Kyiv is motivating its citizens to perform extraordinary merits that really outweigh the heroics of the Ghost of Kyiv is said to have accomplished. 

[Vito]

16 hours ago, Pooter said:

Ukraine happens a year into Biden's term.. absolutely nothing to do with anything trump did.

  Correct.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Vito

[Sua Sponte]

[Prosuper]

2 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

 

Looks like the Russian Army doesn't have Pizza Huts, Burger Kings, and or a Green Bean inside their wire. Looks like a cabbage and borsch diet at the DFAC.

 

[Clark Griswold]

No fly zone?

https://www.theblaze.com/news/adam-kinzinger-no-fly-zone-ukraine

Not sure how viable this is with where the war is now, no open source on far the extent of Russian AF air superiority extends into Western Ukraine but... if the Russian AF has not established CAPs (sustained) over the Western portion of Ukraine, could this be a high risk COA to establish a redoubt or sanctuary from which Ukraine can continue gather forces, receive aid from air and land connections, etc...

Gather up the team, not exactly under NATO but NATO members and execute in STRONG numbers... Put Pat 3 batteries on the other side of the border with WEZ rings extending into Western Ukraine and establish a mission with UN blessing (don't care if Russia has the Sec Council chair right now), have an overwhelming fighter advantage, thinking keeping 20-30 fast movers on station at all times with alert backup at the ready, tankers flying 24/7 over Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc... US, UK, Poland, French, Italy, Aussies... no air to ground work just a missile launching phalanx if any Russian aircraft crosses this longitude line... if we wanna do something, do it

Three of the nations I volunteered for this are nuclear powers, is Russia gonna go nuclear against three other nuclear powers?  Doubt it.  It has risk but letting him win here is riskier.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Clark Griswold

[ViperMan]

21 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Ok tough guy yea let’s assassinate the head of state of a nuclear power…any other brilliant ideas?

And trust me, I’m fully in the “F Russia” camp 🇺🇦💪

No, not really. Not besides just starting a long and grinding slog that's going to kill and maim a bunch of people who don't deserve to be killed or maimed. I'm just suggesting that there is a much, much, higher bar for using nukes than people seem to think exists around here - especially against another nuclear state! If Putin got legitimately splattered, there would be hell to pay, but nukes coming out? Pffffft. Scoff. No one gets to put that cat back in the bag, and everyone knows it. Also, assassinate is the wrong word. MLK, JFK, and Abe Lincoln were assassinated. If Putin was killed in a lawful military strike, that's that.

17 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

After watching this invasion, filtering out the trolls that are on Reddit/Twitter misinformation, I’m convinced that absent help from China and not lobbing nukes, Russia would severely get their asses beat by the U.S. in a conventional war. Their training is obviously shit and it sends a message that Russian commanders have such little faith in their conscript troops that they follow them around with mobile crematoriums once they’re killed.

This. Though I will say, Russia is likely not fighting with everything they have.

[Prosuper]

 

[FourFans]

26 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

No, not really. Not besides just starting a long and grinding slog that's going to kill and maim a bunch of people who don't deserve to be killed or maimed. I'm just suggesting that there is a much, much, higher bar for using nukes than people seem to think exists around here - especially against another nuclear state! If Putin got legitimately splattered, there would be hell to pay, but nukes coming out? Pffffft. Scoff. No one gets to put that cat back in the bag, and everyone knows it. Also, assassinate is the wrong word. MLK, JFK, and Abe Lincoln were assassinated. If Putin was killed in a lawful military strike, that's that.

This. Though I will say, Russia is likely not fighting with everything they have.

Kid, you need to go back to strategy and international relations class.  At a most basic level, it can't be a lawful military strike unless the strike originates from, and is entirely conducted by Ukrainians.  If they do it, I'm all for it.  However, if a nuclear power assassinates (that's the word we use when discussing the intentional targeting a nation's leader by another non-belligerent nation) the leader of another nuclear power, all rational and reasoned arguments concerning the likely response are out the window. 

Beyond that, such a strike, regardless of it's success, by any of the non-belligerents in this event would only serve to validate all of Putin's propaganda.  That then gives him (if he survives) or his replacement all the more validation for expanding what they would see as defensive and necessary combat operations...perhaps, though unlikely, with nuclear weapons.  No possible win with an overt decapitation strike in this case.

Chess, not checkers.

Edited February 27, 2022 by FourFans130

[ViperMan]

3 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Kid, you need to go back to strategy and international relations class there.  At a most basic level, it can't be a lawful military strike unless the strike originates from, and is entirely conducted by Ukrainians.  If they do it, I'm all for it.  However, if a nuclear power assassinates (that's the word we use when discussing the intentional targeting a nation's leader by another non-belligerent nation) the leader of another nuclear power, all rational and reasoned arguments concerning the likely response are out the window. 

Beyond that, such a strike, regardless of it's success, by any of the non-belligerents in this event would only serve to validate all of Putin's propaganda.  That then gives him (if he survives) or his replacement all the more validation for expanding what they would see as defensive and necessary combat operations...perhaps, though unlikely, with nuclear weapons.  No possible win with an overt decapitation strike in this case.

Chess, not checkers.

I'm good with the Ukrainians doing it 👍 - then it's belligerent vs belligerent. Doesn't have to be us, and you're right - it shouldn't be.

Either way, I think that what is conventionally accepted as gospel - that nuclear powers will fight each other with nukes - is 1950s cold war thinking. Putin is throwing his d*ck around in Europe and we are caught with our pants down. He is obviously playing by a different set of rules now, and he'll continue to outmaneuver us if we hold fast to this notion (fear) that he's got a legit itchy nuclear trigger finger. He doesn't, and thinking that orients itself around that "fact" is doomed to lose.

[Lawman]

No fly zone?
https://www.theblaze.com/news/adam-kinzinger-no-fly-zone-ukraine
Not sure how viable this is with where the war is now, no open source on far the extent of Russian AF air superiority extends into Western Ukraine but... if the Russian AF has not established CAPs (sustained) over the Western portion of Ukraine, could this be a high risk COA to establish a redoubt or sanctuary from which Ukraine can continue gather forces, receive aid from air and land connections, etc...

Gather up the team, not exactly under NATO but NATO members and execute in STRONG numbers... Put Pat 3 batteries on the other side of the border with WEZ rings extending into Western Ukraine and establish a mission with UN blessing (don't care if Russia has the Sec Council chair right now), have an overwhelming fighter advantage, thinking keeping 20-30 fast movers on station at all times with alert backup at the ready, tankers flying 24/7 over Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc... US, UK, Poland, French, Italy, Aussies... no air to ground work just a missile launching phalanx if any Russian aircraft crosses this longitude line... if we wanna do something, do it
Three of the nations I volunteered for this are nuclear powers, is Russia gonna go nuclear against three other nuclear powers?  Doubt it.  It has risk but letting him win here is riskier.

Not just no but hell no…

Let’s go fly around an active conflict as a nonparticipating/quasi referee… one where coordination with either sides air defense is questionable at best, no form of distributed ACO/IFF exists… Basically hope that any Ukrainian with a Stinger or SA-11 can tell the difference between our aircraft and the bad guys.

We’ve shot our own airplanes down when we did have TAGS/AGS working…. F all that


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