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9 hours ago, FLEA said:

I would say your social circle is by far an outlier than and you all should probably take social distancing measures more seriously than lol. Either way, the argument still stands that the risk of myocarditis is about the same in either population sample. 

Why would my social circle be the outlier if it much more closely aligns with the CDCs total case estimate?

 

But fair enough, you did your risk analysis and made your decision. I don't think your methodology is sound (taking 1 day's risk level and extrapolating over 3 years) but let's assume for the sake of argument your estimate is correct and myocarditis risk is roughly equivalent. 
 

Wouldn't that still favor the vaccine? If it's basically a wash on the myocarditis front, you're getting the added protection from the vaccine with no net loss. 

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Data from CDC as of today…


Risk of going to hospital:

65-75: 1.5% / 50-64: 1% / 18-49: 0.46% / 0-17: 0.075%

Note: Includes all those with health problems; 95% of those numbers above have at least one comorbidity. So your chance of being hospitalized if you’re healthy is roughly 5% of your age group number above (averaged across all age groups, so it won’t be exactly 5, but close enough).

Risk of death if you contract COVID:

65-75: 6.3% / 50-64: 1.9% / 18-49: 0.24% / 0-17: 0.01%

Note: Includes all those with comorbidites, as well as all data starting Mar 20. 

Interesting numbers on the vaccines:

Fully (partially) vax’d: 65+ 86.1% (99.4%) / 18+ 70.6% (81.6%) /12+ 68.9% (79.7%). Pretty high vaccination rates overall.

Over the course of the last year, the vaccines have reduced the death rate by 0.16% (averaged over all age groups/total US population).

My personal takeaways from the data:

1. If you’re under 65, your risk of hospitalization/death is minuscule; if you’re without comorbidities your risk is even more minuscule. There is certainly not zero risk (caveat for those who will try to misconstrue my words).

2. The vaccines have hardly moved the needle, despite what the MSM, gov reps, and Pharma say. Last 30 days death rate is only 0.16% less than the day prior to EUA. That is not to say vaccines have not accomplished anything, but rather they are significantly less impactful than what many want/believe them to be. 

3. Your overall health and age appear to be the largest factors in how you react to COVID. The “pandemic of the unvax’d” is a total misnomer, as it’s really a “pandemic of the unhealthy (who also may have chosen not to get vax’d).” If we actually root cause this thing, we should be directing much of our misplaced effort towards creating a healthier America, not on emotionally-driven virtue signaling/attacking our neighbors about masks, vaccine mandates, etc.

 

Edited by brabus
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9 hours ago, FLEA said:

I would say your social circle is by far an outlier

My experience has been 20-30 immediate contacts with COVID. But here’s the punchline:

None went to the hospital (including the few 70+) and most were mild cases at best. Related…my neighbor’s brother in-law was killed in a motorcycle accident - autopsy revealed COVID, death certificate says COVID…I shit you not. 

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4 hours ago, Guardian said:

For? Acquiring covid? Going to hospital? Death? What are you setting up by asking a low details question that you likely know your own answer to?

For myocarditis episodes.

 

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3 hours ago, brabus said:

Data from CDC as of today…


Risk of going to hospital:

65-75: 1.5% / 50-64: 1% / 18-49: 0.46% / 0-17: 0.075%

Note: Includes all those with health problems; 95% of those numbers above have at least one comorbidity. So your chance of being hospitalized if you’re healthy is roughly 5% of your age group number above (averaged across all age groups, so it won’t be exactly 5, but close enough).

Risk of death if you contract COVID:

65-75: 6.3% / 50-64: 1.9% / 18-49: 0.24% / 0-17: 0.01%

Note: Includes all those with comorbidites, as well as all data starting Mar 20. 

Interesting numbers on the vaccines:

Fully (partially) vax’d: 65+ 86.1% (99.4%) / 18+ 70.6% (81.6%) /12+ 68.9% (79.7%). Pretty high vaccination rates overall.

Over the course of the last year, the vaccines have reduced the death rate by 0.16% (averaged over all age groups/total US population).

My personal takeaways from the data:

1. If you’re under 65, your risk of hospitalization/death is minuscule; if you’re without comorbidities your risk is even more minuscule. There is certainly not zero risk (caveat for those who will try to misconstrue my words).

2. The vaccines have hardly moved the needle, despite what the MSM, gov reps, and Pharma say. Last 30 days death rate is only 0.16% less than the day prior to EUA. That is not to say vaccines have not accomplished anything, but rather they are significantly less impactful than what many want/believe them to be. 

3. Your overall health and age appear to be the largest factors in how you react to COVID. The “pandemic of the unvax’d” is a total misnomer, as it’s really a “pandemic of the unhealthy (who also may have chosen not to get vax’d).” If we actually root cause this thing, we should be directing much of our misplaced effort towards creating a healthier America, not on emotionally-driven virtue signaling/attacking our neighbors about masks, vaccine mandates, etc.

 

%of mild condition cases hasn’t budged, even before the vax was available. E92F3BE3-8BDE-47DB-9C94-0264F8BE12D0.thumb.jpeg.d2da7e6bf139c4df710501cd3fb7a7e5.jpeg

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9 hours ago, brabus said:

Over the course of the last year, the vaccines have reduced the death rate by 0.16% (averaged over all age groups/total US population).

 

2. The vaccines have hardly moved the needle, despite what the MSM, gov reps, and Pharma say. Last 30 days death rate is only 0.16% less than the day prior to EUA. 

What are you talking about dude? Why are we comparing a single cherry-picked time interval from 2020 to our current 30 day rolling average? Let's look at the charts.
 

EUA was issued on Dec 11 2020

2AAF4842-9611-49ED-8931-B9D1E585CB13.jpeg.be47e761114c74b7f7f2b7908990d1a1.jpeg

Current 7 day rolling average 

E43E12EF-60F2-46E9-900F-BEF15E0C9BFE.jpeg.ac7c18ce39106e5634df4c4ec5d5a85f.jpeg

Weird.. Because the 7 day rolling average looks like a decrease of over 50 percent. Well, we'd better expand that to 30 days to encompass more of the 2020 trough and more of the 2021 spike. Isn't data fun?!
 

This methodology makes no sense because comparing two brief snippets in time tells you basically nothing. 
 

If we want to determine how well the vaccines prevent death, what if we compared the.. oh I don't know... 

DEATH RATES BETWEEN VAXED AND UNVAXED PEOPLE??

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2282

Turns out, you're 11 times more likely to die from delta if you're unvaccinated.  It's almost like you're ignoring the obvious data and doing calendar fuckery to come up with a reason to hate the vaccine. 

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10 hours ago, Pooter said:

This methodology makes no sense because comparing two brief snippets in time tells you basically nothing. 
 

If we want to determine how well the vaccines prevent death, what if we compared the.. oh I don't know... 

DEATH RATES BETWEEN VAXED AND UNVAXED PEOPLE??

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2282

Turns out, you're 11 times more likely to die from delta if you're unvaccinated.  It's almost like you're ignoring the obvious data and doing calendar fuckery to come up with a reason to hate the vaccine. 

Let me rephrase: the death rate (averaged across all age groups and comorbidity amounts) from the day prior to EUA vs. today is a 0.16% change. That’s how much we’ve moved the needle in 11 months. Our 30 day rolling average is also in line with that number, which I suppose is a little more “Gee whiz” than the previous comparison.

Your falter is continuing to ignore the health factor…people aren’t dying primarily because they’re unvax’d, they’re dying because they’re unhealthy or a weakened immune system due to advanced age, and unfortunately these unhealthy people also coincidentally have not taken the vax in many cases. I have always argued unhealthy people should probably get the vax, as they’re the ones who are most at risk…they need every little bit of help they can get.

The main supporting data is the lack of significant vax progression in lowering death rates, old people are highly vax’d (they’re not making up the majority of the unvax’d hospitalized/dying), and 95% of those people in hospitals are 1+ comorbidity. Healthy people under 50 (like most of us and all of the mil) are hospitalizing at sub .5% and dying at sub .25% (doesn’t even account for the risk of getting COVID to begin with, which is < 100%) - this current problem is due to health and age by a wide margin. 
 

You can also throw in more minor data like the amount of vax’d infected/dying/hospitalized - e.g. vax not nearly as great as it was toted, and also people admitted to hospitals for non-COVID reasons (broken arm), then charted as covid patient because they tested positive (yet need no care for COVID directly because they’re mild to no symptoms) - what many people would call cooking the books.  

Bottom line, why don’t you look at ALL the data - it cannot be logically ignored that health and age are the leading issues and vax status is primarily a cherry picked talking point to elicit emotional response. When you buy into the MSM headline “97% of hospitalized cases are un-vax’d!” you’re playing right into their hope that you don’t point out almost all of those people are unhealthy (the largest demographic to skip the vax, but ironically the ones who actually need it) and some of them didn’t even go in for COVID to begin with. You’re also ignoring the multiple times in various places the vax’d made up a larger amount of hospitalizations/deaths than the unvax’d (over shorter time periods) - another blow to the belief that vaccines will stop all of this.

 

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1 hour ago, Negatory said:

Can you link the data?

Also, how can a death rate be 2-4 times higher than hospitalization for those 50+?

CDC COVID data tracker - lots of off-shoots from there to get to data characterized in different ways. Also, totally agree that was weird, caught me by surprise as well. My guess is maybe people in that age group are more likely to say fuck the hospital and end up dying before they or someone else make the decision to go? Another factor could be they died from something else, but coroner found COVID and labeled as such on death certificate. Sorry, don’t have a good answer. 

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1 hour ago, brabus said:

Let me rephrase: the death rate (averaged across all age groups and comorbidity amounts) from the day prior to EUA vs. today is a 0.16% change. That’s how much we’ve moved the needle in 11 months. Our 30 day rolling average is also in line with that number, which I suppose is a little more “Gee whiz” than the previous comparison.

Your falter is continuing to ignore the health factor…people aren’t dying primarily because they’re unvax’d, they’re dying because they’re unhealthy or a weakened immune system due to advanced age, and unfortunately these unhealthy people also coincidentally have not taken the vax in many cases. I have always argued unhealthy people should probably get the vax, as they’re the ones who are most at risk…they need every little bit of help they can get.

The main supporting data is the lack of significant vax progression in lowering death rates, old people are highly vax’d (they’re not making up the majority of the unvax’d hospitalized/dying), and 95% of those people in hospitals are 1+ comorbidity. Healthy people under 50 (like most of us and all of the mil) are hospitalizing at sub .5% and dying at sub .25% (doesn’t even account for the risk of getting COVID to begin with, which is < 100%) - this current problem is due to health and age by a wide margin. 
 

You can also throw in more minor data like the amount of vax’d infected/dying/hospitalized - e.g. vax not nearly as great as it was toted, and also people admitted to hospitals for non-COVID reasons (broken arm), then charted as covid patient because they tested positive (yet need no care for COVID directly because they’re mild to no symptoms) - what many people would call cooking the books.  

Bottom line, why don’t you look at ALL the data - it cannot be logically ignored that health and age are the leading issues and vax status is primarily a cherry picked talking point to elicit emotional response. When you buy into the MSM headline “97% of hospitalized cases are un-vax’d!” you’re playing right into their hope that you don’t point out almost all of those people are unhealthy (the largest demographic to skip the vax, but ironically the ones who actually need it) and some of them didn’t even go in for COVID to begin with. You’re also ignoring the multiple times in various places the vax’d made up a larger amount of hospitalizations/deaths than the unvax’d (over shorter time periods) - another blow to the belief that vaccines will stop all of this.

 

For you and the rest of the crowd who keep harping on the point that COVID disproportionately affects people with comorbidities, please help me understand the point you are trying to make:

Is it that there really is no crisis since only fat and elderly people are at risk?

Is it that healthy people should skip vaccination and/or other mitigation strategies?

Is it that there is some sort of media conspiracy intent on hiding the truth from us?

I guess my questions boil down to: Should we, as a nation/society, adopt a different strategy based on the fact that comorbidities are at a higher risk level? 

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21 minutes ago, Prozac said:

For you and the rest of the crowd who keep harping on the point that COVID disproportionately affects people with comorbidities, please help me understand the point you are trying to make:

Is it that there really is no crisis since only fat and elderly people are at risk?

Is it that healthy people should skip vaccination and/or other mitigation strategies?

Is it that there is some sort of media conspiracy intent on hiding the truth from us?

I guess my questions boil down to: Should we, as a nation/society, adopt a different strategy based on the fact that comorbidities are at a higher risk level? 

The point is its very hard to make a moral case based in standard ethical principles to enforce vaccine mandates unless the vaccine is significantly beneficial to the individuals it's being forced on. For some people it's being forced on, it is significantly beneficial. For others, it's not. 

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25 minutes ago, Prozac said:

For you and the rest of the crowd who keep harping on the point that COVID disproportionately affects people with comorbidities, please help me understand the point you are trying to make:

Great question, I think you hit the heart of the philosophical disagreement.

Simply answered- if COVID is not a danger to me, I shouldn’t be subjected to restrictions intended to protect those who are endangered.  As one (of many) examples: Why am I wearing a mask instead of the person afraid of catching it?

As a society, what other issue do we approach this way?  If I am afraid of catching something, I protect myself.  I don’t demand you change your behavior.  The times we force vaccinations on everyone (public school) it’s for diseases which are equally dangerous to all.  

 

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1 hour ago, Prozac said:

For you and the rest of the crowd who keep harping on the point that COVID disproportionately affects people with comorbidities, please help me understand the point you are trying to make:

Is it that there really is no crisis since only fat and elderly people are at risk?

Is it that healthy people should skip vaccination and/or other mitigation strategies?

Is it that there is some sort of media conspiracy intent on hiding the truth from us?

I guess my questions boil down to: Should we, as a nation/society, adopt a different strategy based on the fact that comorbidities are at a higher risk level? 

It is not my responsibility to subsidize other people's poor decisions or years lived. If they want to get the vaccine to protect them, amazing! Go for it, I don't care. But why are you forcing others to get it who don't need it? The vaccine "works" you say, right? Then why are others being forced to take it or risk losing the ability to care for their family, attend school, etc...? Shouldn't they be protected according to your viewpoint?

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Except vaccines work best when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Even with the less than perfect effectiveness of the current vaccines, a highly vaccinated population will give COVID far less opportunity to spread and perhaps more importantly, to mutate. Also, even young, healthy adults are highly likely to catch this bug at some point. The vaccine may well mean the difference between a case of the sniffles or an extended stay in the hospital with potential “long covid” complications down the road. Seems like a win-win to me. But what seems to be the unequivocal opinion of the nay sayers is: it’s all about me. I don’t feel vulnerable & fuck those who are (or may be going home to family members who are). I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing. 

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18 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Except vaccines work best when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Even with the less than perfect effectiveness of the current vaccines, a highly vaccinated population will give COVID far less opportunity to spread and perhaps more importantly, to mutate. Also, even young, healthy adults are highly likely to catch this bug at some point. The vaccine may well mean the difference between a case of the sniffles or an extended stay in the hospital with potential “long covid” complications down the road. Seems like a win-win to me. But what seems to be the unequivocal opinion of the nay sayers is: it’s all about me. I don’t feel vulnerable & fuck those who are (or may be going home to family members who are). I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing. 

And that mindset is 100% OK. 

Nobody owes society a damn thing. In return, society doesn't owe you anything as well. 

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10 minutes ago, FLEA said:

And that mindset is 100% OK. 

Nobody owes society a damn thing. In return, society doesn't owe you anything as well. 

That’s probably an overly simplistic mindset. I’d venture that no one on these forums is capable whatsoever of meeting all their needs on their own. You rely on society for food, transportation, protection, healthcare, etc. 

Society and each of us must have some amount of cooperation to function. Or you can choose to go fully “into the wild,” at which point I agree your and societies decisions would actually not interact.

 

This is not to say I agree with any more mandates. The point is black and white isn’t an effective way to argue in my opinion.

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41 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Except vaccines work best when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Even with the less than perfect effectiveness of the current vaccines, a highly vaccinated population will give COVID far less opportunity to spread and perhaps more importantly, to mutate. Also, even young, healthy adults are highly likely to catch this bug at some point. The vaccine may well mean the difference between a case of the sniffles or an extended stay in the hospital with potential “long covid” complications down the road. Seems like a win-win to me. But what seems to be the unequivocal opinion of the nay sayers is: it’s all about me. I don’t feel vulnerable & fuck those who are (or may be going home to family members who are). I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing. 

Fuck those expecting healthy people to take a vaccine that works marginally at best and which we have absolutely no knowledge of the potential long term, adverse effects. Its been out for what, not even a year? Most vaccines don't come to market for 8-10 years ... This has made it to market in months.

Edited by VMFA187
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1 minute ago, Negatory said:

That’s probably an overly simplistic mindset. I’d venture that no one on these forums is capable whatsoever of meeting all their needs on their own. You rely on society for food, transportation, protection, healthcare, etc. 

Society and each of us must have some amount of cooperation to function. Or you can choose to go fully “into the wild,” at which point I agree your and societies decisions would actually not interact.

 

This is not to say I agree with any more mandates. The point is black and white isn’t an effective way to argue in my opinion.

It's not simplistic at all. Society provides those things, but its not obligated to. It happens as a matter of transactional relationships that are mutually beneficial to multiple parties. The COVID vaccine is not transactional. It's great that you're worried about other people including myself, but I never asked you for that and frankly I don't need you to do it. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Prozac said:

I don’t feel vulnerable & fuck those who are (or may be going home to family members who are). I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing. 

I agree with your sentiment, but we must acknowledge that making changes for the greater good works both ways. I loathe the idea of legislating health, but many of those espousing taking one for the team will not concede the point that personal choices to be unhealthy have already hurt our society far more than COVID has. Perchance we should create exercise and eating vegetable mandates.

Admittedly, the libertarian in me (sts) likes the Ron Swanson approach.

Ron Swanson on freedom to eat what you want

 

Edited by Muscle2002
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Interesting kerfuffle between OK Guard and DoD.  A F U to your mandate while folks are Title 32.  Other states have been contacting OK to see how they did it.  I expect/hope more states to join the pushback.

As far as I know, there has been no official DoD response, but an anonymous source to Voice of America (odd choice of venue) stated that DoD would push OK out of the Guard and simply list them as a "state militia."

Supposedly a threat to OK funding.

My money is on the NGB 'union' winning this one.

 

Good...

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Interesting kerfuffle between OK Guard and DoD.  A F U to your mandate while folks are Title 32.  Other states have been contacting OK to see how they did it.  I expect/hope more states to join the pushback.
As far as I know, there has been no official DoD response, but an anonymous source to Voice of America (odd choice of venue) stated that DoD would push OK out of the Guard and simply list them as a "state militia."
Supposedly a threat to OK funding.
My money is on the NGB 'union' winning this one.
 
Good...
Okay great. Then we just don't deploy and do DoD's dirty work anymore for 1/3 the cost.
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3 hours ago, Prozac said:

 I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing. 

You don’t see the irony and hypocrisy in your own viewpoint?  Why do healthy people have to alter behavior for the vulnerable, and not the other way around?  You can’t make me feel guilty for not willingly obliging to the mandates when those espousing mandates show zero interest in changing their behavior to accommodate me.  You are guilty of what you lament in others.

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Prozac “I guess that’s where we’re at as a country these days. Not willing to make even small changes in our behavior for the greater good. It’s a bit depressing.”

Dude. Really? That’s super disingenuous if what small change you are talking about is a person violating their religion, conscious, belief in science, or belief in personal freedoms to get a vaccine (which 10 years ago wouldn’t have met the definition) to help protect themselves from something they are at less than 1% of 1% risk of dying from. Or less than 1% of getting sick from and even less for getting hospitalized from. Which is similar to our ongoing battle with flu, colds, and pneumonia.

I think it’s more sad of our country that the people responsible have not been held thus. It’s more sad that a large portion of our country is so willing in the face of something this insignificant to blame everything but their co morbidities, own personal choices, the responsible parties, and willing to sell out their fellow countrymen in such loathing and anger when supposedly they are protected from Covid by being Vax’ed. So why would you care? Because both Vax’ed and un-Vax’ed not only can spread it (along with animals, it won’t ever go away), but get sick and die from it. Never mind that if you caught it and survived it you are 27 times less likely to get it than a Vax’ed person.

What makes this sad isn’t people exercising their thoughts, beliefs, and freedoms in this totally survivable time, but those who are willing to sell the all aforementioned for perceived safety from a virus. That’s the sad part.

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3 hours ago, FLEA said:

It's not simplistic at all. Society provides those things, but its not obligated to. It happens as a matter of transactional relationships that are mutually beneficial to multiple parties. The COVID vaccine is not transactional. It's great that you're worried about other people including myself, but I never asked you for that and frankly I don't need you to do it. 

 

I mean, this gets deeper than this simplification. There’s plenty of counter examples in our society. Is public education a transactional relationship? How about fire departments? What about the military, even? I find the libertarian views you’re describing to be a little overly idealistic. If society was purely transactional you wouldn’t be able to have a lot of things you enjoy in America.

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