Jump to content

COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)


Orbit

Recommended Posts

I doubt anti-vax theories running wild in the Republican base is solid theory for the disparity.  More likely in my mind is a general difference in the perceived level of risk of the actual virus and a good dose of tribal politics on top of that.  

"The risk is overblown by left wing media" turns into "the risk is actually very low."

The left was jumping up and down about how getting a vaccine out anytime soon was impossible not three or four months ago.  So now that they're pushing it, the tribal instinct is to fight back regardless of the logic or illogic behind it.  

I'm actually curious what the narrative would be if Trump had actually won the election.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again...you don't need to interview every single American to build statistical models that represent the population.”

 

Of course polls are scientific.   Just ask President  Hillary.  Or ask 538 what happened to the 2020 Blue Wave in the congressional election.

Edited by JimNtexas
clarification
Link to comment
Share on other sites



“Again...you don't need to interview every single American to build statistical models that represent the population.”
 
Of course polls are scientific.   Just ask President  Hillary.  Or ask 538 what happened to the 2020 Blue Wave in the congressional election.


Not all polls are scientific/rigorous or representative of the population at large. But there are many statistical and experiment design techniques to increase how well a poll represents the population. And they are based on probabilities, and reality can fall at the extremes of those fancy bell curves.

Election polls build a model for the election results itself. But the model is only as good as the data put into it (garbage in, garbage out), and you have to keep in mind rule #1 of modeling: all models are wrong, but some are useful. The trick is making sure the poll is useful. Many exit polls really are just entertainment, they aren't rigorous polls.

The other thing that gets people in trouble is using a descriptive model to do predictions-they are designed differently, and models tend to break down quickly when you extrapolate if they weren't designed to do that.

And finally, yes, in a sense you're right: the only way to find the truth regarding an issue in a population is to ask every person, and no statistical model is the "truth". That's a fact. And it's the underlying principle behind a direct democracy. But it's very hard to do that in a realistic or timely manner, and an exact truth may not be needed when an approximate truth is acceptable or sufficient.

But even our government is not set up like that-it's too difficult to scale up direct votes on a national level. So we select representatives to do most of our voting for us. Our representatives are nothing but a small sample of our population, selected in a particular way (geographical representation), and in theory they represent the opinions of the population at large. So a democratic republic attempts to model the "will of the people" through electing a democratically selected sample of the population to decide issues.

That's why things like gerrymandering are so dangerous, it games the model to produce a biased outcome.

It's also why political parties are so dangerous, as the representatives may decide (and increasingly seem to) represent their party's interests instead of their constituency (which is defined geographically, not politically).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I recall...the US Army has had an office just for spotting pathogens like this Covid virus among others...warning the big system and starting response and prevention.  Gotta wonder if they spotted this bug at the start and what the response was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



There is a difference in understanding why people are declining opposed to running a statistical model. It's like running a model as to why pilots keep leaving opposed to actually talking to the pilots themselves as they 7 day opt. 


You have to do both.

AF needs to do exit interviews of a pilots leaving (all would be great), and take that information to build a model. And then continue to do exit interviews to assess the model and correct it if needed.

Or even better, survey why pilots leave AND why they stay (maybe every year when you your flight records review, or every other year, or at "critical" points in your career)

You need a model, because it's difficult to sort through reams of responses to figure out what's wrong. And even if you can extract data from it, it's frigidly to determine what factors are correlations versus causal. And without a model, it gets near impossible to see how two or more factors interact to create new correlations or causal interacting factors.

Problem is that the AF isn't really doing the surveys, so their model may not be accurate. Or maybe it is reasonably accurate, but they don't take action for one reason or another (limited budget, statutory requirements, or don't care). Maybe the retention model shows that given the limits on the AF, they can't fix pilot retention and can only slow the bleeding, and the only viable solution is to increase pilot production and accept the situation for the next 10 years.
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHO will end research into 'extremely unlikely' theory that COVID-19 originated in Wuhan lab

"The investigators have visited hospitals, research facilities and the seafood market where the first outbreak was identified, although their contacts in Wuhan are limited to visits organized by their Chinese hosts."

I feel so much better...

  • Like 5
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHO will end research into 'extremely unlikely' theory that COVID-19 originated in Wuhan lab
"The investigators have visited hospitals, research facilities and the seafood market where the first outbreak was identified, although their contacts in Wuhan are limited to visits organized by their Chinese hosts."
I feel so much better...

The organization that did all it could to carry China’s water at the beginning of this wants to assure us, it couldn’t possibly be anything from a Chinese lab... not at all... stop looking there.

Look I don’t really buy the conspiracy theory or anything, but at this point anything the WHO publishes on “where it came from” is at best suspect.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of vaccines...

I’d advise anybody getting the series to deliberately plan the backside of those shots to not be busy.

1st shot didn’t do much, just a little muscle stiffness in my arm/neck which meant a poor nights sleep and a touch of hangover...

2nd shot put me solidly on my ass 6 hours after getting it, basically it’s the 24-36 hour flu without the nausea/vomiting.

Needless to say if you told your wife you were gonna paint the bathroom that weekend or something, think about maybe putting something else on the schedule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Speaking of vaccines...

I’d advise anybody getting the series to deliberately plan the backside of those shots to not be busy.

1st shot didn’t do much, just a little muscle stiffness in my arm/neck which meant a poor nights sleep and a touch of hangover...

2nd shot put me solidly on my ass 6 hours after getting it, basically it’s the 24-36 hour flu without the nausea/vomiting.

Needless to say if you told your wife you were gonna paint the bathroom that weekend or something, think about maybe putting something else on the schedule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Reports from several coworkers that it is also with the nausea/vomiting which honestly really has me panicked. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’ve had many dudes go down for multiple days from each shot. One guy was hit hard for 3 weeks following the first one. Have cancelled a lot of lines for lack of pilot availability. It’s no walk-in-the-park flu shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just got the first shot and that night I slept for a solid 12 hours.  Next day I had some body aches, 800mg motrin solved that.  A squadron mate was down for the count for a day or two.  Hoping shot two doesn't take me down long since I'll be in the midst of airline training.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of vaccines...

I’d advise anybody getting the series to deliberately plan the backside of those shots to not be busy.

1st shot didn’t do much, just a little muscle stiffness in my arm/neck which meant a poor nights sleep and a touch of hangover...

2nd shot put me solidly on my ass 6 hours after getting it, basically it’s the 24-36 hour flu without the nausea/vomiting.

Needless to say if you told your wife you were gonna paint the bathroom that weekend or something, think about maybe putting something else on the schedule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


This is my experience. 2nd shot yesterday morning. Felt like shit last night thru lunch today. Just a little tired now.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st shot (moderana) was absolutely nothing.  Second shot in a little short of 24 hours later I was on my ass with high grade fever, then chills, and constant headache for about 8 hours.  All symptoms ceased after 8 hours and I was back to normal.  I basically slept the entire day.  We are scheduling at work based on that timeline.  48 hour DNIF.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

1st shot (moderana) was absolutely nothing.  Second shot in a little short of 24 hours later I was on my ass with high grade fever, then chills, and constant headache for about 8 hours.  All symptoms ceased after 8 hours and I was back to normal.  I basically slept the entire day.  We are scheduling at work based on that timeline.  48 hour DNIF.  

Are your MDGs telling you it's a 48 hour DNIF?  Mine is. No factor because a)non-flying job and b)my MTF ran out of vaccines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, MyCS said:

Civilian: I need you to really collect vaccine numbers weekly for the Groups in the wing. CC feels like people are being skipped.

Me: I guess you both don't read the SITREP. We don't have any vaccine and the medical office for scheduling is overwhelmed for this huge joint base. Giving you and the boss numbers isn't going to resolve a supply and scheduling issue. This is prevalent throughout the US right now. 

People aren't purposely skipping over others. Y'all acting like you're 75+ years old or something. 

 

1.) Commanders should not be asking people whether they got the vaccine or not. As long as it's on an emergency authorization thats health privledged information between a person and their provider. 

2.) People are definitely skipping at my OCONUS base, but that probably has more to do with talks on vaccine passports accelerating and people in a hurry to travel this summer. EUCOM, I think, has had the most oppressive lockdown restrictions of those I've I informally surveyed. People are pretty pent up here and want to get out. If the vaccine is the ticket, than so be it. 

Edited by FLEA
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No one is being skipped here but on vaccine days you can show up at the end and if they have leftover shots they’ll give it to you instead of throwing them away. They tend to run out of extras pretty quick.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, MCO said:

No one is being skipped here but on vaccine days you can show up at the end and if they have leftover shots they’ll give it to you instead of throwing them away. They tend to run out of extras pretty quick.

That’s how I got mine yesterday 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

I got the second dose of the vaccine yesterday (about 17 hours ago).  First dose I had a mild fever the next morning and joint pain the day of.  So far on the second dose, zero side effects.  Pfizer version.

I got the second Pfizer dose Thursday. Yesterday I was achy but it was nothing that some Motrin didn't ease.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Using COVID-19 as an opportunity for political retribution, our wonderful new White House administration had discussions (which they are trying to walk back), about imposing travel restrictions on those traveling from Florida.  The Fla governor has justifiably pushed back using actual infection ratesThe shocking thing is Florida's infection rate, even with the spike, it not in the top 20 of U.S. states.  Oddly, California has a higher rate than Florida but the White House doesn't see a need for restrictions on them.  I don't really like DeSantis but he had a great line - “And if you think about it, restricting the right of Americans to travel freely throughout our country while allowing illegal aliens to pour across the southern border unmolested would be a ridiculous, but very damaging farce.”

‘Absurd': DeSantis Pushes Back on Possible Florida Travel Restrictions by Biden Administration

These is some good news this morning as nationwide infection rates have dropped dramatically (Coronavirus infections are plummeting) in the past 30 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...