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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)


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22 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I mean shout out to all my 60/70s/80s/90s babies who died from polio...oh wait!

The science seems good here and I can’t wait to take the vaccine and end this long, shitty pandemic. There can always be problems, but the alternative is currently extremely problematic so I vote we go with a very promising solution.

Yes ... the 99+% survival rate for military aged folks is very problematic 

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17 hours ago, MyCS said:

The vaccine isn't the silver bullet. You can't factor in herd immunity until 80% of the populace receives the vaccine.

You mean like Polio? For things like measles, you have to hit ~94% and somehow we did that back when people trusted science. Source:

1) https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

17 hours ago, MyCS said:

You have vaccines from Pfizer, Astrazenca, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. How long is the effectiveness and duration? Nobody knows is what was said in the brief. 

First of all, Pfizer and Moderna are the only approved vaccines, so let's focus on those. We know for sure that, when it comes to COVID, it's way better than not being vaccinated at all (up to 95% effective) and that it has been proven to significantly reduce the severity of COVID infections when they do happen (almost all cases after vaccination are mild). Source:

2) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201118005595/en/

19 hours ago, HossHarris said:

Yes ... the 99+% survival rate for military aged folks is very problematic 

It's not about you or me. It's never been about you or me. It's about the herd.

While you guys love to quote death rates in a vacuum - and death rates are important- you have to know the assumptions. The current assumptions are that you get admitted to get care. This literally isn't true as of this week in highly populated parts of America. Without the ability to get in hospitals due to exponentially rising cases, folks that could have been cared for are going to die. Also, it's kind of funny to see that some of you literally last week pulled BS sources out that showed that we wouldn't have ICU capacity problems (you took overall US capacity in a vacuum or cherrypicked examples) and now they are manifesting in our most populated areas in America. Sources:

3) https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-has-southern-california-icu-capacity-at-zero

4) https://abc7.com/health/what-happens-when-ca-icu-capacity-reaches-0%/8879527/

Also, why don't you all ever talk about how the hospitalization rate for COVID is significantly less biased towards old people when compared to the death rate? Younger people actually have a much higher, real chance of being admitted to the hospital and/or icu than death rates lead you to believe. For example, let's compare 30-39 year olds to 65-74 year olds.

The average COVID patient who is 30-39 years old is on the order of 22.5 times less likely to die than a 65-74 year old. But they are only 2.5 times less likely to be hospitalized. Sources:

5) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/covid-data/hospitalization-death-by-age.pdf

6) https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

So what? Normal average aged people have no real chance of hospitalization though, right? Wrong. A predictor was created using data from a cohort of studies to tell you the relative likelihood of hospitalization based on your age, bmi, race, gender, etc. Spoilers, it's greater than you think. For example, a 40 year old male with a healthy BMI who is white statistically has a 3.6% chance to be hospitalized from COVID-19. Sources:

7) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237419

😎https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/

Who cares about hospitalizations though? ICU admission is what matters, and that's probably not that bad, right? Wrong. Studies have shown that, when you take the population as a whole, generally ~24% of all COVID cases are admitted to the ICU. And that's not just old people, it's everyone. For example, out of the hospitalized young people aged 18-34, 21% ended up requiring ICU care. Look at the other age groups and you'll see the same trend. Source:

9) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770542

Put it all together, and the hospitalization and ICU admission rate for 30-39 year olds is on the order of 3% and 0.8% respectively.  For 40-49 year olds it's on the order of 5% and 1.5%. Unfortunately, these aren't just trivial numbers, although we all wish they were. When you look at 65+, you get to terribly high requirements when it comes down to hospitalization and ICU admission rates. When a portion of society takes hospital capacity away because they go to strip clubs to protest "liberty," you end up making it literally impossible for numerous people to get life-saving care:

On 12/18/2020 at 9:28 AM, VMFA187 said:

Thinking about taking the wife and showing my appreciation tonight!

My hot take: If cases don't start to go down immediately, we are going to max out America's medical system from coast to coast. With this lack of access to care, significant amounts of people will die of treatable diseases - not just COVID. I mean, we've already had literally as many excess deaths this year as we did combat losses in WWII, so I guess this probably will fall on deaf ears. But no one's asking for permanent lockdowns or microchips or any changes to life that are long-lasting. Society is asking for you to be on the team that bands together for probably on the order of one year to take precautions, limit the spread, get vaccinated, and get through this. No one chose to have a worldwide pandemic that would unduly stress the entirety of the global human medical system. Everyone wants to get back to normal, and the only way to do that is to trust science and work as a team. Get on the team.

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17 hours ago, MyCS said:

I get to sit in on the briefs. The vaccine isn't the silver bullet. You can't factor in herd immunity until 80% of the populace receives the vaccine.

You have vaccines from Pfizer, Astrazenca, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. How long is the effectiveness and duration? Nobody knows is what was said in the brief. 

I'll pass...

 

Like PowerPoint?  You're taking a weak sauce pass because of PowerPoint?  Was it from scientists that understand biochemistry, how they manufacture mRNA, and how each vaccine mechanism works?  As for duration, how long does you body keep antibody memory for tetanus?  Or typhoid?  Next, effectiveness in trials were in the 95% range, which puts it at the top of the vaccine list of effectiveness.  So yes, in this instance, it is the silver bullet.  All the other bullets are useless.

My point here, do some of your own research.  I did.  For one, the mRNA approach is something that was talked about when I was in college and will be a true change in modern medicine.  "RNA is required for protein synthesis, does not integrate into the genome, is transiently expressed, is metabolized and eliminated by the natural mechanisms of the body and is therefore considered safe."  mRNA vaccines were already developed for Zika and rabies, but those diseases are mostly in check with other vaccines or low-rate infections, i.e., no urgency to market, so their trails were low priority.  But they laid the foundation and technology to quickly develop the COVID vaccines.

Anyone here that had the Anthrax vaccine can attest to some of the adverse effects.  I will wager that the mRNA vaccine adverse effects will likely pale in comparison. 

PS, I my undegrad degree is biochem, so I have a curiosity about how they did it.  Move over CRISPR, mRNA is whizzing by on the left.

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1 hour ago, Negatory said:

You mean like Polio? For things like measles, you have to hit ~94% and somehow we did that back when people trusted science. Source:

1) https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

First of all, Pfizer and Moderna are the only approved vaccines, so let's focus on those. We know for sure that, when it comes to COVID, it's way better than not being vaccinated at all (up to 95% effective) and that it has been proven to significantly reduce the severity of COVID infections when they do happen (almost all cases after vaccination are mild). Source:

2) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201118005595/en/

It's not about you or me. It's never been about you or me. It's about the herd.

While you guys love to quote death rates in a vacuum - and death rates are important- you have to know the assumptions. The current assumptions are that you get admitted to get care. This literally isn't true as of this week in highly populated parts of America. Without the ability to get in hospitals due to exponentially rising cases, folks that could have been cared for are going to die. Also, it's kind of funny to see that some of you literally last week pulled BS sources out that showed that we wouldn't have ICU capacity problems (you took overall US capacity in a vacuum or cherrypicked examples) and now they are manifesting in our most populated areas in America. Sources:

3) https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-has-southern-california-icu-capacity-at-zero

4) https://abc7.com/health/what-happens-when-ca-icu-capacity-reaches-0%/8879527/

Also, why don't you all ever talk about how the hospitalization rate for COVID is significantly less biased towards old people when compared to the death rate? Younger people actually have a much higher, real chance of being admitted to the hospital and/or icu than death rates lead you to believe. For example, let's compare 30-39 year olds to 65-74 year olds.

The average COVID patient who is 30-39 years old is on the order of 22.5 times less likely to die than a 65-74 year old. But they are only 2.5 times less likely to be hospitalized. Sources:

5) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/covid-data/hospitalization-death-by-age.pdf

6) https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

So what? Normal average aged people have no real chance of hospitalization though, right? Wrong. A predictor was created using data from a cohort of studies to tell you the relative likelihood of hospitalization based on your age, bmi, race, gender, etc. Spoilers, it's greater than you think. For example, a 40 year old male with a healthy BMI who is white statistically has a 3.6% chance to be hospitalized from COVID-19. Sources:

7) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237419

😎https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/

Who cares about hospitalizations though? ICU admission is what matters, and that's probably not that bad, right? Wrong. Studies have shown that, when you take the population as a whole, generally ~24% of all COVID cases are admitted to the ICU. And that's not just old people, it's everyone. For example, out of the hospitalized young people aged 18-34, 21% ended up requiring ICU care. Look at the other age groups and you'll see the same trend. Source:

9) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770542

Put it all together, and the hospitalization and ICU admission rate for 30-39 year olds is on the order of 3% and 0.8% respectively.  For 40-49 year olds it's on the order of 5% and 1.5%. Unfortunately, these aren't just trivial numbers, although we all wish they were. When you look at 65+, you get to terribly high requirements when it comes down to hospitalization and ICU admission rates. When a portion of society takes hospital capacity away because they go to strip clubs to protest "liberty," you end up making it literally impossible for numerous people to get life-saving care:

My hot take: If cases don't start to go down immediately, we are going to max out America's medical system from coast to coast. With this lack of access to care, significant amounts of people will die of treatable diseases - not just COVID. I mean, we've already had literally as many excess deaths this year as we did combat losses in WWII, so I guess this probably will fall on deaf ears. But no one's asking for permanent lockdowns or microchips or any changes to life that are long-lasting. Society is asking for you to be on the team that bands together for probably on the order of one year to take precautions, limit the spread, get vaccinated, and get through this. No one chose to have a worldwide pandemic that would unduly stress the entirety of the global human medical system. Everyone wants to get back to normal, and the only way to do that is to trust science and work as a team. Get on the team.

UT's current count, this is fine -

Percent of all non-ICU Bed Occupied 55.2%
Percent of all ICU Beds Occupied 99.4% (534/537)
Percent of Referral Center ICU Beds Occupied 104.1% (480/461)
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On 12/18/2020 at 6:16 PM, MyCS said:

I get to sit in on the briefs. The vaccine isn't the silver bullet. You can't factor in herd immunity until 80% of the populace receives the vaccine.

You have vaccines from Pfizer, Astrazenca, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. How long is the effectiveness and duration? Nobody knows is what was said in the brief. 

I'll pass...

 

Aren’t you active duty? Like you have a choice of declining the vaccine or not 😂 

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50 minutes ago, MyCS said:

But you think they are just going to let you take a vaccine and go fly where you may have an allergic reaction. Some people may have to be on quarters or DNIF after receiving the vaccine per a military doctor that oversees the administration of the vaccine.

https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=96258

I imagine they could follow the FAA rules.

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1 hour ago, MyCS said:

The vaccine isn't mandatory at my base or for anyone in the military. It's been said a million times to everyone it's not mandatory. Hell, my buddy who is AF at Naples in Italy knows this information too and he's overseas.

I am at a base issuing the Pfizer vaccine. We will be testing Astrazenca next. Johnson & Johnson will be evaluated too, not sure when. We won't receive Moderna. Pfizer is being administered in phases at my base. Which means not everyone is going to receive it right away. Only emergency personnel are receiving it right now to include inpatient/ED/ER/Fire/SF..etc.

I'm telling you what the experts are telling me in the briefings. I sit in on the briefings that discuss all the vaccines. 

80% of the populace needs to be vaccinated before we can factor herd immunity. 

You can still pass the virus and must wear a mask even after vaccinated.

There is an PHEO who is a full bird and another FGO from PH I can call 24/7 with questions. I had to put together a surveillance and testing plan with them. 

As a flyer, they won't let me take allergy shots from my dermatologist. But you think they are just going to let you take a vaccine and go fly where you may have an allergic reaction. Some people may have to be on quarters or DNIF after receiving the vaccine per a military doctor that oversees the administration of the vaccine.

If I was being dishonest, how does a flyer know about all the manufacturers of the vaccine, testing, and herd immunity? I didn't look this stuff up because this is what was briefed. And we have a bunch of the base that will return from holiday leave where we are expecting the numbers to spike. The city is already above 100K cases.

 

It’s not mandatory...now. Will it be mandatory later? I mean, the DoD still vaccinates against smallpox, so you do the math. 

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CS,

Go to the VARS site and read up on all the adverse reactions to all the vaccines you've ever taken, to include the yearly flu one.  Once your head spins from all the reported reactions, you might realize this one is no different.  If you've survived all the others, you will likely be fine. 

GFC, the crybaby mentality of people these days... grow a pair.  If Pelosi can push though it....

Out

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39 minutes ago, MyCS said:

I promise you there will be Airmen who will refuse the vaccine if it ever becomes mandatory. 

Really? You think “this generation” is going to refuse to follow a vaccine order after following all the other orders they’ve received to this point? My guess is that the military will prioritize war fighters and overseas members first, so it will be a year or two for the nonners to have to worry about it. My hope is that we develop an annual COVID vaccine that we take with our flu shot each year. And in a year or two you’ll think about it as much as you think about your flu shot. That is, not a lot. 
 

Man it pisses me off when “my generation” shits on “that generation” and questions their commitment to their service and craft. Order them to do a thing and they’ll do it. Punish those who disobey and make accommodation for those who need accommodation. I’m not going to force some 7th Day Adventist to take a vaccine if it violates their religion. Want a religious exemption? Join the JW or 7DA. 

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OK, I'll make it easy for everyone...

HOME COVID TEST

1. Open a can of beer, and try to smell it.

2. If you can smell the beer, drink it to see if you can taste it.

3. If you can smell and taste the beer, this confirms you don't have COVID!

I did this test 19 times last night, and all were negative!

Tonight I am going to do the test again, as I work up this morning with a pounding headache and feeling like I am coming down (STS) with something!

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I was told that, as long as the vaccine was under emergency approval only, it will not be mandatory for federal employees. 

I was also told that if you kick and scream when you see the needle you might get two lollipops after instead of just the usual one lollipop. However, if you start yelling about the shot altering your DNA, the nurse will just get annoyed and you won't get any lollipops.

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17 hours ago, MyCS said:

The current vaccines out/being tested does not account for this specific mutation, but can be tweaked.

 

From what I've read the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines (the two that are approved in the US right now) should still be relatively effective against the new UK mutation. Both the OG virus and the UK mutation use the same spike protein to latch on to cells and those two vaccines use mRNA to instruct our immune systems to attack that protein rather than other potential ways to get at the virus. YMMV on the details, I'm not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

FWIW this is a good article on the expected side effects of the COVID vaccine. It was worth the time spent reading it.

https://www.vox.com/22158238/covid-19-vaccine-side-effects-explained

TL;DR: people should expect mild/moderate reactions to both vaccines although perhaps less so with the Pfizer one, not unlike many other vaccines.

True story, I got 5x vaccines all at once before a deployment and one of them was even non-standard one (Japanese encephalitis virus). I went back to work and about 30 minutes later felt like I got hit with a tranq dart like Will Ferrell in Old School. I drove home but felt absolutely crazy and slept straight from 2pm until 9am the next morning. And that's to be expected haha, it's a lot to ask your immune system to spin up against that much shit at once!

Get your vaccines people; they save lives and we can end this pandemic sooner rather than later.

 

Edited by nsplayr
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Through some luck and timing I was offered and given the Pfizer COVID vaccine yesterday from my civilian job. So far the only side effect I've noticed is my arm being sore. Otherwise I feel fine. 

It's only 50ish% effective after one dose so I won't change any of my behaviors until a few weeks after my second dose. 

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38 minutes ago, MyCS said:

Maybe I'm conflicting information between military and civilian sides. I thought our high risk populace was receiving the vaccine first? Like emergency personnel, underlying medical conditions, elderly, our parents, etc...

 

It was blind luck. I was helping administer vaccines for my hospital. We had two extra Pfizer doses and couldn't find any front line staff in the hospital that was able and willing to take it before the dose expired. Had we found two additional people I would have waited. 

I expected to receive it early (as my state's plan involves vaccinating all hospital staff in the first group) but not this early. 

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It was blind luck. I was helping administer vaccines for my hospital. We had two extra Pfizer doses and couldn't find any front line staff in the hospital that was able and willing to take it before the dose expired. Had we found two additional people I would have waited. 
I expected to receive it early (as my state's plan involves vaccinating all hospital staff in the first group) but not this early. 


Yeah my wife works at a hospital and sometimes they get an extra dose out of a vial. Sometimes they get five doses, sometimes they get six. At the end of the day there may be no shows and/or a few extra doses and obviously it’s better to give it out than let it expire.

Those who administer the vaccine to the front liners also get it.
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Got mine a week ago in NY. ARNG and ANG had secured a whole bunch of doses for local units. Huge turnout, was organized into a multi day affair...pretty much they said whoever wants the vaccine just let us know.

Day after shot sore arm and a little "icky" feeling kind of like when I get the flu shot but more mild. Next day onward, no side effects. Still waiting on my 5G signal.

Separately I have to say I'm impressed with the CDC webapp they gave us. It automatically prompts you to check in with any side effects - I feel like we should have this level of automation for a lot of medication (seems like a great way to get data in the digital age).

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38 minutes ago, SPAWNmaster said:

Got mine a week ago in NY. ARNG and ANG had secured a whole bunch of doses for local units. Huge turnout, was organized into a multi day affair...pretty much they said whoever wants the vaccine just let us know.

Day after shot sore arm and a little "icky" feeling kind of like when I get the flu shot but more mild. Next day onward, no side effects. Still waiting on my 5G signal.

Separately I have to say I'm impressed with the CDC webapp they gave us. It automatically prompts you to check in with any side effects - I feel like we should have this level of automation for a lot of medication (seems like a great way to get data in the digital age).

Do you have to sync the app with the chip or does it do it automatically?

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6 hours ago, Scooter14 said:

 


Nope

I like having small businesses in my downtown. I do what I can to support them.

 

We have been eating outside, getting to go, and tipping generously because not everyone has the same pay stability that the military provides. I feel like we should help keep our local economies going. Except clovis, let that place burn. 

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