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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)


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100%. It’s all clickbait and it’s maddening. They throw around words like “mutation” and “highly transmissible” in the headline but when you read it, as CH illustrated, it’s all just hollow bullshit.

It drives me insane.

Well, back to the end of day 5 of my 14 day ROM...


I’m on day 8 of 14 in Korea quarantine. I feel like I’m in jail. Can’t step outside the room without an escort, get an hr of escorted yard time every day, COVID test on day 1 and day 12 with a complete room isolation until negative results, you have to have a mask on any time you open your door, and we get 2 hots and a box lunch everyday. And the WiFi sucks. Light at end of tunnel, I retire when I get back to the States.


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5 hours ago, MyCS said:

I went to public schools and I'm not a doctor. But this doesn't make sense at all. They have only inoculated 40M of 300M+ people. How does that add up to herd immunity? That 40M took about 3 months. Maybe the government timeline is more realistic.

Everyone leaves out the confirmed people who have already had COVID which is another 30M.  While they are saying people who have had should still get the vaccine, of the 111 Million world-wide confirmed cases there are only 25 confirmed reinfection cases which is a rate of 0.00002 %, to me that proves your immunty lasts far longer than they want to admit.

I believe they some of the "top virologists" also postulate that there a large segment of the population who have had COVID but are not aware.  I've read several studies and articles that suggest between 30% and 80% of the people who get COVID are asymptomatic and unaware they have had the virus.  Dr Fauci has been using the 40% number. 

There is also disagreement over the number it will take to get herd immunity.  Dr Fauci is saying 70% to 80%, many others say it will be the more typical 50%.  The numbers above have some big variations that make it difficult to calculate a certaintity

Whatever  "science" you choose to believe one thing is certain, something has changed and the infections rate is dropping dramtically.  The U.S. high was on Jan 8th, 2021 with 300,619 new cases per day (holiday bump?), as of yesterday the U.S. infection rate had fallen 78% to 69,740 per day.  If you look at the trend line you will see that since January the trend line drops faster than BQZips Mom's panties at a frat party.  That drop has continued as even more and more places are opening up.

 

 

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On 2/18/2021 at 10:51 PM, FDNYOldGuy said:

Reserves on AD orders, so not sure if it’ll be exactly the same, but I got the 1st Pfizer shot last night. Local Public Health was offering up extras and it was a “can you be here in 30?” call. My wife got her shot (healthcare worker, as well) and heard them saying they had extra doses, so she gave my number.

I tried to get it at the base clinic the same day and they had extras, but got told by the AD folks I needed a higher-up-the-chain-than-worth-it auth to get it because I’m Reserves. I’m on long term AD orders, downrange two weeks ago with issues due to potential crew exposures/sickness and looking like I might be headed out again this coming week, so I didn’t think it was crazy to inquire. But, I guess it’s a bigger hurdle for me to get an available dose than for them to give the extras to the retirees.

Reserves only offer it during UTAs and those filled rapidly, so gist I’ve heard is to get it on the outside, if possible. 

I haven’t run it through the wickets yet, so no info on whether there’s any pushback. There’s no cost involved, so Tricare should be a non issue and it didn’t sound like there was going to be one from flight med outside the 48 hour DNIF. Then again, I haven’t handed them the card yet because shit weather and I’m not flying in that window, so maybe the pee pee smack is coming...

Zero side effects from it, besides a little soreness in the arm. Less than Tetanus or Typhoid, so not really even worth mentioning. Second shot is fragged ~3 weeks out and supposedly public health just calls for scheduling it. 

11/10, would recommend over a few of the ass kickings I’ve heard from perfectly healthy folks that were unfortunate enough to not have the Diet COVIDs.

Weird how different everyone does it. My guard base had a "open-season" day for the vaccine on sunday of last UTA. By appointment only on Saturday and Sunday you could just stroll up and get it if you wanted to. 

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On 2/21/2021 at 6:19 AM, ClearedHot said:

The U.S. high was on Jan 8th, 2021 with 300,619 new cases per day (holiday bump?), as of yesterday the U.S. infection rate had fallen 78% to 69,740 per day.  If you look at the trend line you will see that since January the trend line drops faster than BQZips Mom's panties at a frat party.  That drop has continued as even more and more places are opening up.

Down from 69,740 to 55,195 in two days...something has changed.

Screen Shot 2021-02-22 at 9.04.06 AM.png

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3 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Down from 69,740 to 55,195 in two days...something has changed.

Screen Shot 2021-02-22 at 9.04.06 AM.png

My bet would be 2 months removed from the Holidays, winter months, people are staying inside their own homes?  I can't see the vaccine having this much of an effect so early.

Or the virus is running its natural course and running out of viable targets and dying off?

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On 2/21/2021 at 6:19 AM, ClearedHot said:

Whatever  "science" you choose to believe one thing is certain, something has changed and the infections rate is dropping dramtically.  The U.S. high was on Jan 8th, 2021 with 300,619 new cases per day (holiday bump?), as of yesterday the U.S. infection rate had fallen 78% to 69,740 per day.  If you look at the trend line you will see that since January the trend line drops faster than BQZips Mom's panties at a frat party.  That drop has continued as even more and more places are opening up.

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59 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

My bet would be 2 months removed from the Holidays, winter months, people are staying inside their own homes?  I can't see the vaccine having this much of an effect so early.

Or the virus is running its natural course and running out of viable targets and dying off?

Maybe scroll up a few posts...

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The vaccine, which is being rolled out in a national immunization program that began Dec. 20, was 89.4% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a copy of a draft publication that was posted on Twitter and confirmed by a person familiar with the work.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/pfizer-biontech-shot-stops-covid-s-spread-israeli-study-shows

I hope this is right because it changes the conversation about the vaccine. I think you could convince quite a few people to get it if they knew they could safely see their high risk family members again without transmitting it. 
 

I know my families behavior will change significantly once my in-laws and my kid’s nanny’s 2d doses take full effect. 

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The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....

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8 hours ago, Alpharatz said:

The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....

"Fatal role"?

People like you are ubelieveable.  "The virus is 99% survivable".

"This vaccine which has had 2 deaths in millions of cases is playing Russian Roulette!"

 

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The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....


Research results mean nothing if you never apply that research. Whether it's too expensive, or requires a large population to take an action that may not benefit them directly in the short term.

Also, a very interesting effect happens with how you frame decisions. Freaking the decision as a 99% chance of living after infection causes a different decision making process than framing it as a 1% chance of dying. (The effect is more visible if you slide the percentages, say 80/20. Like a doctor telling you you have an 80% chance of surviving surgery is different than them telling you you have a 20% chance of dying. Both are factually correct, but they could elicit different responses because of how the information is framed). It's why some people enjoy skydiving, while some will never try it even if it's free to them-it comes down to how they handle risks and decisions.

What makes it challenging is when decisions if others impacts your decisions and outcomes. With a 99% chance of living after infection, it's perfectly rational to say it doesn't matter at an individual level, live your life how you want, no masks, travel, etc, since your odds are good. (Yes, I'm ignoring the issue of getting infected, but recovering with longer term issues). But it causes problems for society at large.

If a society is able to limit the spread of a disease (for example let's say to 3 million people, or roughly 1% of the US population), at 1% death rate, that's 30,000 people who died. But if spread is not contained and everyone gets it, 1% becomes roughly 3,000,000 who does from it. Same percentages, but vastly different practical outcome.

So the challenge is for the society/countries to trade off individual risks and actions against broader social/national risks and actions. Especially in more individualistic countries, and where travel between cities/states is common.
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He is the top paid Federal Employee in the government and I have no idea why.  Seriously, you could pay me half of what he makes, which would be half of $416,000, and I'll make stupid decisions and save the government money.

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1 hour ago, TreeA10 said:

He is the top paid Federal Employee in the government and I have no idea why.  Seriously, you could pay me half of what he makes, which would be half of $416,000, and I'll make stupid decisions and save the government money.

Commentator Matt Walsh recently pointed out that Fauci is now very famous and will soon be rich, if not already.  He is in the spotlight and has millions of people listening to him.  Nobody knew his name a year ago.  That all happened to him overnight.  He’s not going to willingly give any of that up now that he has it.  He’s done the second he declares COVID a thing of the past.  It’s in his best interest to keep this going as long as he can. 

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He is the top paid Federal Employee in the government and I have no idea why.  Seriously, you could pay me half of what he makes, which would be half of $416,000, and I'll make stupid decisions and save the government money.


Basically pro pay for certain government employees, particularly doctors. Throw in the fact that he's got 50+ years of government service, and is the head of a government agency, so roughly equivalent to GO/SES pay scales as a starting point.

Have to pay to recruit and retain talent, especially with highly skilled/educted professions.

Your strategy sounds just like why the AF kept the pilot bonus so low for so long, and have a retention problem.

If you're outraged about Fauci's pay, are you also outaged that the highest paid state employee in several states is a football coach?

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45 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

 


If you're outraged about Fauci's pay, are you also outaged that the highest paid state employee in several states is a football coach?
 

 

When they keep losing games due to poor coaching, yes. 

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6 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Why do we listen to this fool?

he’s been wrong on everything. No accountability and no one ever challenges him on his bull shit  

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Neither supporting him or poopooing him, but to be fair, your three articles are from early 2020 when nobody knew anything about COVID and what it was or how it was going to spread. Now, has he been right?  Dunno...the “we may be wearing masks into 2022” thing has me pissed off though. North Dakota’s total infections and daily positive rates have dropped and stayed low even a month or more after the state mask mandate wasn’t renewed, and we were a hotspot over the fall. 

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12 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 


Basically pro pay for certain government employees, particularly doctors. Throw in the fact that he's got 50+ years of government service, and is the head of a government agency, so roughly equivalent to GO/SES pay scales as a starting point.

Have to pay to recruit and retain talent, especially with highly skilled/educted professions.

Your strategy sounds just like why the AF kept the pilot bonus so low for so long, and have a retention problem.

If you're outraged about Fauci's pay, are you also outaged that the highest paid state employee in several states is a football coach?
 

 

I have no problem paying people what they are worth. I have a problem paying people more than they are worth.  130,000 federal employees make more than the governor of Pennsylvania who makes @ $196K per year. I'm sure some of those federal jobs require skills and knowledge above and beyond what is required of 1 of 50 state governors. Let's say we need 30,000 people smarter and more knowledgeable than 50 state governors. Why do we need the other 100,000?  

 

@42 of 50 of the highest paid state employees are football or basketball coaches. The other are heads of medical or law schools. Yes, I think it's stupid to pay them ridiculous salaries BUT if their performance brings in $ to the state at least you can justify the cost. 

 

Fauci doesn't appear to bring solid or consistent decision making skills to the table to justify his oversized influence or salary. 

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I have no problem paying people what they are worth. I have a problem paying people more than they are worth.  130,000 federal employees make more than the governor of Pennsylvania who makes @ $196K per year. I'm sure some of those federal jobs require skills and knowledge above and beyond what is required of 1 of 50 state governors. Let's say we need 30,000 people smarter and more knowledgeable than 50 state governors. Why do we need the other 100,000?  
 
@42 of 50 of the highest paid state employees are football or basketball coaches. The other are heads of medical or law schools. Yes, I think it's stupid to pay them ridiculous salaries BUT if their performance brings in $ to the state at least you can justify the cost. 
 
Fauci doesn't appear to bring solid or consistent decision making skills to the table to justify his oversized influence or salary. 


Well, as an AD major on the pilot bonus, I make $191k/year, and that's ignoring the tax advantage of BAH or any tax free months (though I'm also living in a high BAH area).

At best, I'm an average officer, though you could make the case I'm below average since it took me 2 tries to make major. Is my salary/bonus justified?

I get you don't seem to like Fauci, or at least disagree strongly with his advice. But he seems to be well respected within the medical community. He's also only an advisor on pandemic response-governor's can do what they want (ref Florida). What would you say he's worth being paid? An immunologist makes about $285k on average in the DC area accordingly to salary.com. How much extra should a doctor get paid if they also are in a senior leadership/managerial role?
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08Dawg,

fair point. He’s changed his tune many times and early on I’ll give him the benefit. 
 

however this is from sep 20. He is the boy who cried wolf, and he never comes on the news to update his predictions. Just continues to preach his doom and gloom when the facts clearly show otherwise. 
 

 

631810F4-1E24-4369-9873-9D992BAF0303.jpeg

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