Right Seat Driver Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially. Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years. And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon. ChuckThat checks.Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialD Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 20 hours ago, Chuck17 said: And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon. Chuck Mid-late 90s OPS TEMPO you say? 30 day deployments, every 3+ years, with only the occasional long TDY in between. Sign me up! If I knew we wouldnt be deploying every 19-24 months, on a waste of time deployment, I would potentially stick around a bit longer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 On 7/18/2021 at 8:18 AM, Chuck17 said: In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially. Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years. And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon. Chuck I don't see any wings shuttering. If we didn't close any after kicking 25,000 people out in 2012-2013, we're not going to do it in 2023. Congress loves to save money in the military budget, but they hate the idea of losing the base in their district. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawman Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 I don't see any wings shuttering. If we didn't close any after kicking 25,000 people out in 2012-2013, we're not going to do it in 2023. Congress loves to save money in the military budget, but they hate the idea of losing the base in their district.You can always route federal funding to “resource” the base with Federal employees, despite the fact it has no real mission or justification for maintaining what is there in place. Fort Knox is a good example of this. No way the vault and Human Resources Command justifying the amount of real estate and support infrastructure that is on a base that used to maintain the Army’s second largest training intake BCT and the entire Armor and Cavalry branch schools. But still gotta pay all those range control guys to drive around on roads and make sure nobody is back there hunting without a pass. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breckey Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 6 hours ago, Lawman said: You can always route federal funding to “resource” the base with Federal employees, despite the fact it has no real mission or justification for maintaining what is there in place. Fort Knox is a good example of this. No way the vault and Human Resources Command justifying the amount of real estate and support infrastructure that is on a base that used to maintain the Army’s second largest training intake BCT and the entire Armor and Cavalry branch schools. But still gotta pay all those range control guys to drive around on roads and make sure nobody is back there hunting without a pass. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Or Grand Forks AFB. That base should have been shuttered when the tankers left. Especially now that the Global Hawk is gone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tac airlifter Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Looks like we’re not totally done out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawman Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Looks like we’re not totally done out there.F all that… “Yeah guys perform air strikes for a foreign military with no competent representation on the ground to actually dictate the targeting cycle or call in/off air appropriate to the scenarios… Sure everything will be fine.”Do we get to just pick our own targets now? Or do we get to use the “dude had a 3rd grade education and barely spoke English, how was I supposed to know that was a school I was shooting” at a future war crimes investigation? We crushed people’s souls for doing the right thing and having stuff go bad when it was Top tier guys calling it in. No way should bubbas be flying strike lines for them without some seriously predetermined immunity for this. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeloDude Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this… https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhhello Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, HeloDude said: How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this… https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI It won't look like that only because there aren't any helos with skids there 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swizzle Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, HeloDude said: How long before Kabul falls and resembles something like this… https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-august-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1sWr5guHDeA--Qaf--io-khSgxyvoeK_vznYxrPsnaKvczHkXJaFEGnUI What else could they have added, military coup? Riots? Seems a legit lvl. 4, puts other lvl 4 COVID-only advisories to shame. "The Travel Advisory for Afghanistan remains Level 4-Do Not Travel due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, armed conflict, and COVID-19." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegularJoe Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuggyU2 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 hours ago, RegularJoe said: How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country I'll never go back to that shit hole. But I might make a brief exception for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegularJoe Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 46 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said: I'll never go back to that shit hole. But I might make a brief exception for this. I figure if the C-27's sold for 40k then an A29 should be around a grand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeloDude Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 4 hours ago, RegularJoe said: I figure if the C-27's sold for 40k then an A29 should be around a grand. Nah…$2K. Bidenflation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
war007afa Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 On 8/9/2021 at 10:14 PM, RegularJoe said: How long until you can by an A-29 for scrap value? That might be worth a quick trip in country Trust me when I say you won’t want them anymore… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialD Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Taliban takes Kunduz and moving in on Herat and Lashkar Gah. Well it looks like we've finally turned that corner all those generals have been talking about over the last two decades... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegularJoe Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 12 hours ago, war007afa said: Trust me when I say you won’t want them anymore… I was in charge of getting them built originally so I know what to strip off them to make it worth while 😉 Anyone know where serial number 3 or 4 ended up, I thought 4 was in Kandahar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brabus Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 I feel like every bomb, rocket, and bullet I employed in Kunduz and Herat made such a difference in the world. Thanks for cementing that reality SocialD! Also, fuck that place… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breckey Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Who wants to be a Chopper Popper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Breckey said: Who wants to be a Chopper Popper? Eh, they'll crash them without any help from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arg Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 2 hours ago, pawnman said: Eh, they'll crash them without any help from us. It'll be hard to crash that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuggyU2 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Those morons can't maintain a treadmill in the gym. As soon as that helo goes Code 3, it will be a static display. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhog Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 (edited) Taliban soldier twitter account. That helo will never see the air again, but they scored "innumerable" vehicles, weapons, and equipment. They are currently making gains toward Kabul. As the Taliban effectively overtakes the whole of the country and imposes Islamic law, the Biden admin thinks they deserve a role in the international community: https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1425511981277134855?s=20 Edited August 12, 2021 by torqued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 So Trump is too dangerous for Twitter, but a literal terrorist organization is good to go? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLEA Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 32 minutes ago, pawnman said: So Trump is too dangerous for Twitter, but a literal terrorist organization is good to go? Yeah thats bit fucked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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