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Deaths Surpass 200, and State Department Urges Against Travel to China


LaneHBO

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I'm not a pathologist but I feel like the media is overblowing this and we are a following it. 

For one, of the cases in China, the death rate of the Novel Corona Virus is only about 2%. Compare this to 10% SARS and 35% MERS, the last big epidemics I remember. The prominance of these cases is in Wuhan which is very rural, has limited healthcare and no centralized hospital. Victims in more civilized countries seem to recover after 1-2 weeks. I'm curious what the age/health spectrum of fatalities is because there is likely a predominance of very young/old/already sick in there. 

There appears to be a misinformation campaign as well, designed ripple the Chinese economy by causing economic scare and withdrawal of Western businesses. 

I don't feel like getting overly panic'd about this yet. 

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2 hours ago, FLEA said:

I'm not a pathologist but I feel like the media is overblowing this and we are a following it. 

 

The Chinese could be silent or lying and the media could be inaccurate. But that is where intelligence comes into play. Like HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, cyber, and the list goes on to really obtain a valid assessment. Someone already stated you can't trust the Chinese media or their government. They copy the Russian state media playbook almost as well as the Iranians.

If there is an increase of people with dual citizenship trying to get the hell out of China. Would be another indicator of an issue. Why? Because they are on the ground there and might be seeing a different story than what is being portrayed on tv. Just my take.

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3 minutes ago, LaneHBO said:

The Chinese could be silent or lying and the media could be inaccurate. But that is where intelligence comes into play. Like HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, cyber, and the list goes on to really obtain a valid assessment. Someone already stated you can't trust the Chinese media or their government. They copy the Russian state media playbook almost as well as the Iranians. Just my take.

Some truth to all of that but to some degree I trust China more than I trust CNN or Fox trying to boost their viewership, so that tells you how cynical I've become.

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1 minute ago, FLEA said:

Some truth to all of that but to some degree I trust China more than I trust CNN or Fox trying to boost their viewership, so that tells you how cynical I've become.

About 15+ years ago, a situation went down. I'm watching the tv at work and what was being reported by the media wasn't even close to the information we were receiving from the horses mouth. Take some information you receive with a grain of salt. Hard for me to watch Fox, CNN, or MSNBC. 

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4 hours ago, FLEA said:

The prominance of these cases is in Wuhan which is very rural, has limited healthcare and no centralized hospital. Victims in more civilized countries seem to recover after 1-2 weeks.

Don’t know how long it’s been since you’ve been to WUH, but the view out of my 30th floor of the Hilton didn’t look very rural.  That’s not to say many other points made (health care quality, dis-information, etc) aren’t valid.

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4 hours ago, hindsight2020 said:

image.png.68e5e2232fea084d755cba40ff0924b8.png

All I know is, Kalitta doesn't pay well enough for that nonsense. So much for a pilot shortage. LOL

 

K4 pay isn’t spectacular, but it’s not Atlas by a long shot.

That said, they asked for volunteers.  They got plenty.  This has been a win for those guys.

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7 hours ago, BFM this said:

Don’t know how long it’s been since you’ve been to WUH, but the view out of my 30th floor of the Hilton didn’t look very rural.  That’s not to say many other points made (health care quality, dis-information, etc) aren’t valid.

Nah I changed it to reflect lack of healthcare. I haven't specifically been to Wuhan, but supposedly for a city of 11M they have no centralized hospital system, just lots of clinics. There was a Chinese propoganda story floating around in how they erected one in 2 weeks but actually turned out to be a building 1000km away. 

 

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8 hours ago, BFM this said:

K4 pay isn’t spectacular, but it’s not Atlas by a long shot.

That said, they asked for volunteers.  They got plenty.  This has been a win for those guys.

Just messing with ya BFM, wasn't trying to single out your employer, the picture was just a target of opportunity. 😉 Agreed, much worse places to hang out in than K4; Active Duty apparently being one of those if you take a straw poll around here these days. 😄

Cheers and y'all stay safe out there.

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Consider the source but it might be worse (seriously worse) than being reported:

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/wuhan-coronavirus-crematoriums-working-247-21434630

Now reading it and taking a look, if this is true is it more wide spread than reported or more dangerous than reported or unfortunately both?

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CDC and DOH finally getting in with boots on the ground. Good takeaway regarding regimes and how they conduct business. Keeping everyone out, controlling information, lockdowns in effect in various ways good and bad.

Either way this virus will run its course and burn out eventually, or a vaccine will be effective and implemented or we just add another annual flu type vaccine to the list of options to mitigate the effects. IF food driven, governments should provide some assistance in “wet market” cleanliness. It’s not the first time, definitely not the last.

This is a positive note to keep me in a good mindset versus the underlying theme of history.

Mother nature is a serial killer... 

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On 2/10/2020 at 3:05 PM, AirGuardianC141747 said:

CDC and DOH finally getting in with boots on the ground. Good takeaway regarding regimes and how they conduct business. Keeping everyone out, controlling information, lockdowns in effect in various ways good and bad.

Either way this virus will run its course and burn out eventually, or a vaccine will be effective and implemented or we just add another annual flu type vaccine to the list of options to mitigate the effects. IF food driven, governments should provide some assistance in “wet market” cleanliness. It’s not the first time, definitely not the last.

This is a positive note to keep me in a good mindset versus the underlying theme of history.

Mother nature is a serial killer... 

WHO said 18 months until a vaccine. I was thinking weeks...

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Seems like an extended period, but then again besides the test period, validation period, etc, it’s the sheer number to produce and distribute on a world wide scope that may be in play. Granted, it’s normally months to several years for vaccines to be fully vetted as they continuously mature into various stages of potency/ effect. 
Vaccines cost hundreds of millions of dollars to develop and hopefully this iteration of the Corona Virus (#5 of the previous 4) won’t take that long with a baseline of 4 current Types of the Corona on file that have supposedly been dealt with.

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