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Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.


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27 minutes ago, icohftb said:

What is the black on the very first bar chart? Forecasted seperated pilots?

I don't think it's a forecast, it's a "today" snap shot of every year group and how many are left (per 1000). The black is pilots who have separated.

It looks as though it should be more of a linear decline as years of service increase, but the huge dip in the 11-14 year range is creating the concern.

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Can any Mobility guys fill in/answer this question...

 

Why aren’t more Mobility pilots leaving?

 

Annual days gone is 200+ (anecdotal)
High probability of being a UPT IP
Do a staff job there’s no fighter guy to fill in for
Already “airline ready” knowing how to use FMS, fly international, crew concept

What’s keeping them in?

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10 minutes ago, Crosswind said:

Can any Mobility guys fill in/answer this question...

 

Why aren’t more Mobility pilots leaving?

 

Annual days gone is 200+ (anecdotal)
High probability of being a UPT IP
Do a staff job there’s no fighter guy to fill in for
Already “airline ready” knowing how to use FMS, fly international, crew concept

What’s keeping them in?

Some people suck. They can't make it in the outside world and they know it.

Some people are scared of change. The USAF is a guaranteed paycheck. It's hard to give up pay, medical care, and retirement if you have a family.

Some people want to be senior leaders.

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1 hour ago, Crosswind said:

Can any Mobility guys fill in/answer this question...

 

Why aren’t more Mobility pilots leaving?

 

Annual days gone is 200+ (anecdotal)
High probability of being a UPT IP
Do a staff job there’s no fighter guy to fill in for
Already “airline ready” knowing how to use FMS, fly international, crew concept

What’s keeping them in?

Mobility guys are leaving in droves. That positive delta can’t be correct.

Look at the steady decline in the take rates. It will be mid 30s in FY18

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I imagine part of it is that they over-produced mobility pilots for a few years, back when maybe only 4-5 guys in a class of 30 drop T-38's, combined with sending a bunch of T-38 trained dudes to heavies.

11M has been overmanned for a long, long time.

 

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7 minutes ago, joe1234 said:

I imagine part of it is that they over-produced mobility pilots for a few years, back when maybe only 4-5 guys in a class of 30 drop T-38's, combined with sending a bunch of T-38 trained dudes to heavies.

11M has been overmanned for a long, long time.

 

Again, I will say that we are overmanned only on paper

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Don’t forget to add in the large numbers of 11M’s who where sent to go fly droids to help out that problem. Which is only going to get worse in the next few years as they want to increase the numbers in the 18x career as well. Like it’s been stated here and over at TPN QOL is a big part of it but money is also a factor when you get them both the airlines are hands down the best thing when guys are wanting QOL with the pay that goes with it. 

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1 minute ago, pilotguy said:

Again, I will say that we are overmanned only on paper

Yeah, it certainly feels that way when half the line flyers in your squadron get non-vol'd to deployments and stupid AFPAK hands bullshit, while the other half are ladder climbing bitches eagerly volunteering for wing exec, aide-de-camp, and Phoenix whatever bullshit, leaving you and like 3 other dudes to fly the entire schedule.

Glad I'm out, haha.

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1 hour ago, JeremiahWeed said:

Just FYI:

Airlines give zero f#cks about this.  Same training for all no matter how "airline ready" someone might think they are.

I'm always entertained by the inevitable APC post (or here, for that matter) opining, "why would the airlines hire a fighter dude who doesn't know anything about their business when instead they can hire someone who knows how to be part of a crew and use an FMS and fly into high-volume airports like the airlines do?!"

Well, dude...why don't you ask the hiring folks at the airlines, who don't seem to see the same problem with it that you seem to think there is.

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4 hours ago, Crosswind said:

Can any Mobility guys fill in/answer this question...

 

Why aren’t more Mobility pilots leaving?

 

Annual days gone is 200+ (anecdotal)
High probability of being a UPT IP
Do a staff job there’s no fighter guy to fill in for
Already “airline ready” knowing how to use FMS, fly international, crew concept

What’s keeping them in?

For me - 2 years left on my ADSC.  I was late to UPT, so I've watched lots of my peers bail even if offered sweet school options/follow on assignments.  I'm stuck in a dead end staff job and AFPC doesn't seem to give a damn that I'm willing to go fly an airplane.  The longer I don't fly, the more I want to walk away at the end of my ADSC.

It was telling last month when Gen Holmes addressed the issue at WEPTAC.  Evidently 9 dudes (11F) who got school all turned it down to get out.. I personally don't think big blue GAF about the whole issue.. they'll wait it out until the next economic crunch when pilots get furloughed and come back in droves for a paycheck. 

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Oh great, a bunch of brand new wingmen/copilots shoved through UPT with no one in the operational squadrons to train them because your IPs are too busy in the Wing exec office to be able to train the youngins let alone remain proficient themselves...what could go wrong?

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Back in 2009-2013, the AF turned the 11F pipe down to a trickle, while increasing the MAF. Somewhere later, they changed the crew ratios for less pilots per jet. That has helped made the MAF look healthy on paper too.

All those guys who went T-38s to MAF/others commitment are all coming due in the next couple years. Talking to all of the guys that I know, none of them are sticking around.

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