Jump to content

Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.


ClearedHot

Recommended Posts

YMMV, but I know a good amount of O-5 through O-7s that at one time claimed they were getting out... some were disingenuous, many more really weren't as decided as they presented, and some just had major changes in life.  Some are pessimistic and are concerned of another 911 and layoffs... all depends on your crystal ball.  That being said, the more examples of positive outcomes for folks to look at does not bode well for the AF.  But there will always be a regression to a mean, there will be layoffs at some point...


To your point, I’ve seen AFRC guys who stayed way past 20 YOS mil due to the radiation burns from the post-9/11 furlough years. Can’t fault them a bit for keeping two jobs, not being sure how the airline side of things would eventually turn out.

I also don’t fault guys for the often hated phrase “keeping doors open”. But simple things like doing (dumb) PME can keep the promotion opportunities open for many years, particularly on the AFRC side. Having done Active Duty for over a decade, I enjoy the relatively low bar set in AFRC for progression. A pulse and PME is all that’s required for O-5. Masters and PME for O-6.

One the flip side of that, I also don’t fault an ARC baby who got hired at an airline in his/her first 10 years on mil service, starts making great money and having amazing time at home, and finds the inherent stupidity of PME insatiable, retiring as an O-4 with a smile.

Different strokes for different folks. In my AFRC unit, I fly with farmers, police officers, firefighters, teachers, dentists, airline pilots, you name it. My family’s best plan has literally nothing to do your family’s best plan. The ARC does a much better job of embracing that mentality than anything I experienced on AD (i.e. everyone should be a CSAF in training).
  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Serious question:  On average how much would a brand new 2 Lt on flying status make per month/year? I had a young guy who really wants to fly ask me this and I figure this would be a good place to ask.

Yes, he's aware of the "challenges" of being an air force pilot (drones, non-flying jobs, queep, etc...) and the AD vs. Guard situation.   

Edited by Stitch
Spelling is hard...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stitch,

I'd have him check out the following site. For a married O-2 at Vance AFB the annual salary showed like $55K without flight pay. 

http://militarypay.defense.gov/Calculators/RMC-Calculator/

And for reference at 12 years in as a major with flight pay you make about $120K. Often at that point you're either paid to leave or offered a bonus which is currently around $25K to $35K a year to stay in which can vary from around 5 to 9 years depending the Air Force's needs. 

Edited by Lifer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stitch,  sounds like the young man in question should dump the current wife and find a more attractive one that supports his dreams of living dangerously.  Alternatively, keep current wife and allow her to maintain the fiction that he makes only 650$ a month.  It’s all technique.  Good luck!

Edited by tac airlifter
COA 2 added.
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/13/2018 at 5:50 AM, HossHarris said:

Getting into the check-of-the-month club makes a lot of follow on decisions much much easier. 

Recommend. 

True, but having a low seniority number at a legacy airline makes life much easier too. Every time I see a guy break down the math of staying vs. going, they always come out much farther ahead by getting out ASAP.

Like investing, you go with the risk you can tolerate.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, joe1234 said:

True, but having a low seniority number at a legacy airline makes life much easier too. Every time I see a guy break down the math of staying vs. going, they always come out much farther ahead by getting out ASAP.

Like investing, you go with the risk you can tolerate.

 

Your retirement check will never be furloughed, fired, lose it’s medical, or merged with another company.....

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, HossHarris said:

Your retirement check will never be furloughed, fired, lose it’s medical, or merged with another company.....

You sure about that?

But also, it won't get you in the left seat of a widebody making 350k+/year for 10+ years.

Again, some people can stomach the risk and some can't. Do what's best for you and yours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, HossHarris said:

Your retirement check will never be furloughed, fired, lose it’s medical, or merged with another company.....

Just reduced by the amount your VA payment is, for most people.

 

Most of you didn't know that one did ya.

Edited by matmacwc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tac airlifter said:

Stitch,  sounds like the young man in question should dump the current wife and find a more attractive one that supports his dreams of living dangerously.  Alternatively, keep current wife and allow her to maintain the fiction that he makes only 650$ a month.  It’s all technique.  Good luck!

That's what allotments are for, right?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, joe1234 said:

True, but having a low seniority number at a legacy airline makes life much easier too. Every time I see a guy break down the math of staying vs. going, they always come out much farther ahead by getting out ASAP.

Like investing, you go with the risk you can tolerate.

 

Seniority is everything at an airline as long as you are actually working.  I remember a bunch of guys back in the late 90's crunching the numbers in the squadron and the math then, like now, clearly said GET OUT NOW!!!  Many did, most were promptly hired, almost all were quickly furloughed, and were then begging for a job.  At any time, anything can happen to dramatically change the landscape.  In 1998, you COULD NOT LOSE by going to an airline!  The math ALWAYS came out ahead by getting out ASAP...until there wasn't a job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

I don’t know if the airlines were facing the same mandatory retirement numbers for the next 10+ years in 1999.....

maybe they were. Old timers?

Valid point.  But at Delta at least, we have been steadily hiring WAY more per year than even our peak year will see in retirements.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

When they come for the military pension we’ll have bigger problems I think. 

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

With $21 Trillion in debt and interest rates held artificially low for such a long time, I’m not sure I’d bank on any pension backed by the government as fool proof.

Any Congressman who even mildly suggests revoking military pensions would be committing political suicide for their career.  Then the focus would turn to their pensions and it would become a mess.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Azimuth said:

Any Congressman who even mildly suggests revoking military pensions would be committing political suicide for their career.  Then the focus would turn to their pensions and it would become a mess.

 

 

They cut it back in 12 I think it was.  For "working age" military retirees they lopped the COLA.  One time catch up at 65.  It passed as part of a larger bill.  Saw Ryan give many a speech in defense of it.

Was eventually repealed, but they've done it once.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I won’t doubt the check of the month club padding is nice but in this given situation, the force retirements/mass hiring just to fill seats (not necessarily grow). I’d say you have just enough furlough protection with the numbers being hired behind you if your an early 2020s hire. About the same certainty that the gov isn’t going to chip away at your retirement. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...