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You can always “be full” if you decrease lines, routes and size of aircraft. Fairly obvious when you fly into several airports and see extra iron just lying around. Overseas is no different with a sea of metal still available although they don’t try to hide it like us. Actual aircraft at the gate with an engine missing or both all taped up with tire covers. They haven’t recovered nor have we fully recovered. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Just don’t be surprised.

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Everyone can picket all they want, but with the impending recession predicted to begin Q2 of 2023, all these companies have to do is drag their feet 6-8 more months before the ball is back in their court and our bargaining power will be next to ZERO just like it was during COVID. Business travel will drop, layoffs will ensue, vacations will drop, etc. People will run out of their COVID-Cash soon.

The only thing in our favor is that retirements will still be in full swing.

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23 minutes ago, TheNewGazmo said:

Everyone can picket all they want, but with the impending recession predicted to begin Q2 of 2023, all these companies have to do is drag their feet 6-8 more months before the ball is back in their court and our bargaining power will be next to ZERO just like it was during COVID. Business travel will drop, layoffs will ensue, vacations will drop, etc. People will run out of their COVID-Cash soon.

The only thing in our favor is that retirements will still be in full swing.

 

 

Maybe we'll finally get back to being a little better staffed!  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: the UAL Tentative Agreement...

No pilots are willing to admit they will vote Yes on the UA pilot forum.  While the forum is only made up of a small percentage of the pilots, I'd say those that are posting are not at all pleased.  

I don't believe there is any wording where UA pilots will get additional items should another airline end up with a better contract in the future.  

Of course, the mainstream media has made it sound like it has been agreed upon.  Far from it.  Though you just never know how new pilots will vote.  And UA has a LOT of new pilots.  

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Re: the UAL Tentative Agreement...
No pilots are willing to admit they will vote Yes on the UA pilot forum.  While the forum is only made up of a small percentage of the pilots, I'd say those that are posting are not at all pleased.  
I don't believe there is any wording where UA pilots will get additional items should another airline end up with a better contract in the future.  
Of course, the mainstream media has made it sound like it has been agreed upon.  Far from it.  Though you just never know how new pilots will vote.  And UA has a LOT of new pilots.  

From what I’ve seen, incredibly underwhelming. Small pay increase with hits on QoL. Break even ta at best.
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Not a UAL guy but from my perspective, their TA looks like a giant turd. Hope they vote it down and find a way to negotiate something better. Rising tide lifts all boats and all that. 

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If that turd passes, it's going to be a massive uphill battle for the rest of us.   At best, we'll have to hope that the already agreed upon sections will have been good enough to make a passable TA.  I didn't think it was possible, but appears they made their reserve even worse than it already was.  Here's hoping it gets overwhelmingly rejected.  

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5 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Of course, the mainstream media has made it sound like it has been agreed upon.  Far from it.

Yeah, I was scratching my head at Scott Kirby's recent Linkedin post heralding their "agreement" with ALPA.

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If that turd passes, it's going to be a massive uphill battle for the rest of us.   At best, we'll have to hope that the already agreed upon sections will have been good enough to make a passable TA.  I didn't think it was possible, but appears they made their reserve even worse than it already was.  Here's hoping it gets overwhelmingly rejected.  

Yeah, other CEOs must be salivating about only having to meet/beat this offer.
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The union negotiating team mustn't kill the Golden Goose. But they do need to squeeze it's neck until every last egg is laid. 

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On 6/15/2022 at 1:23 PM, AirGuardianC141747 said:

You can always “be full” if you decrease lines, routes and size of aircraft. Fairly obvious when you fly into several airports and see extra iron just lying around. Overseas is no different with a sea of metal still available although they don’t try to hide it like us. Actual aircraft at the gate with an engine missing or both all taped up with tire covers. They haven’t recovered nor have we fully recovered. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Just don’t be surprised.

Yeah I am a business traveler.  Usually every other week going somewhere for a few days.  Conferences are coming back but its still mostly full of vendors and not our customers.  We are finding they are still pretty slim and major operators are not rushing back to these events. I think most are realizing a huge part of customer/vendor interaction can be done via phone/email.  This was going to always be the case but covid accelerated it.  I dont think business travel will ever be what it was pre covid.  

Now with pleasure travel....my flight to Houston was $300-$400 bucks inside 2 weeks.  Its now over $800 with fewer options.  I suspect families will rethink travel plans as well.

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On 6/26/2022 at 11:48 PM, HuggyU2 said:

The union negotiating team mustn't kill the Golden Goose. But they do need to squeeze it's neck until every last egg is laid. 

 

 

With this TA, it appears they haven't even gotten off the couch to reach for the neck of that goose.

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On 6/26/2022 at 2:05 PM, HuggyU2 said:

Re: the UAL Tentative Agreement...

No pilots are willing to admit they will vote Yes on the UA pilot forum.  While the forum is only made up of a small percentage of the pilots, I'd say those that are posting are not at all pleased.  

I don't believe there is any wording where UA pilots will get additional items should another airline end up with a better contract in the future.  

Of course, the mainstream media has made it sound like it has been agreed upon.  Far from it.  Though you just never know how new pilots will vote.  And UA has a LOT of new pilots.  

My $0.02

That TA has nothing nobody asked for.  Vacation, nope.  Sick leave/pay, nope.  Training credit/pay, pay inches up but credit stays low for another 3.5 years. Reserve improvements, fuck no, and gave away a huge QOL item. Scope, give away so non seniority list pilots can be instructors.  Made it easier to get reassignments by removing reserves and Sr man options 1st.  All they did was toss out a bunch of add pays to appeal to our greed to shape actions.  That type of model stinks of Effects Based Operations.  What they often fail to see is that I/we want more time away from work, hence the vacation, training, SL, reserve, Rig improvements, among others.  The pay rates are just 4 and 5%, the other 5% was previously negotiated.  Not even close to inflation since 2019, when this was supposed to be done.

I once heard the work rules, etc. shows how much they care about you, and pay rates show how much they respect you.  To me, that TA says, "Eat shit and fuck off"

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On 6/27/2022 at 7:18 AM, ecugringo said:

Yeah I am a business traveler.  Usually every other week going somewhere for a few days.  Conferences are coming back but its still mostly full of vendors and not our customers.  We are finding they are still pretty slim and major operators are not rushing back to these events. I think most are realizing a huge part of customer/vendor interaction can be done via phone/email.  This was going to always be the case but covid accelerated it.  I dont think business travel will ever be what it was pre covid.  

Now with pleasure travel....my flight to Houston was $300-$400 bucks inside 2 weeks.  Its now over $800 with fewer options.  I suspect families will rethink travel plans as well.

Agree, prices are going ballistic in some areas. So many cancellations since they are unable to support with current staffing, etc. I have been fortunate enough to snag United, Delta and American four times returning from ANC to TN since Jan 22. I realize three out of the four flights were last minute business provided by the company and aren’t cheap, but they have more than doubled… Business is sought after on these 6hr (ish) flights, but May was about $1,500 (Delta/76/lie flat. Granted it’s tourism to ANC/Back, but earlier this week was $3,800 (American/Airbus). Company got it down to $3,200. ANC is a bit out there, but it seems to be high all around.

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17 hours ago, disgruntledemployee said:

My $0.02

That TA has nothing nobody asked for.  Vacation, nope.  Sick leave/pay, nope.  Training credit/pay, pay inches up but credit stays low for another 3.5 years. Reserve improvements, fuck no, and gave away a huge QOL item. Scope, give away so non seniority list pilots can be instructors.  Made it easier to get reassignments by removing reserves and Sr man options 1st.  All they did was toss out a bunch of add pays to appeal to our greed to shape actions.  That type of model stinks of Effects Based Operations.  What they often fail to see is that I/we want more time away from work, hence the vacation, training, SL, reserve, Rig improvements, among others.  The pay rates are just 4 and 5%, the other 5% was previously negotiated.  Not even close to inflation since 2019, when this was supposed to be done.

I once heard the work rules, etc. shows how much they care about you, and pay rates show how much they respect you.  To me, that TA says, "Eat shit and fuck off"

If the metal moves in July, there will be no contract.

 

I'm tired of listening to pilots bitch about the contract, then spend 15 minutes on the phone fixing a catering problem, or refusing to write up small discrepancies that will delay their flight, or chasing contractually non-compliant assignments for a few bucks, etc,etc,etc. 

 

"Well I don't want to delay the passengers..."

 

"But they might have to cancel the flight!"

 

"I'm not going to screw over the FAs"

 

"I just want to get to the hotel"

 

"I have family in Tulsa, so I'm just going to get us there."

 

It's the same here as it was in the military. A lot of type-A people who love the smell of their own farts. But if it isn't a specifically-enumerated decision authority for the PIC/A-code from the FAA/11-202, the tough guys get real soft when it gets to be time to cancel the flight. Fatigue, weather, maintenance, doesn't matter, the metal moves.

 

And since the motivations in the airlines are completely different, it's made me rethink my military experience entirely. I always thought it was fear of being passed over, or missing the next award, or not getting the desired assignment that kept military pilots grinding on, despite the regs and despite safety. But none of those considerations exist at the airline. So the only logical conclusion is that pilots are by and large a bunch of golden retrievers that get immense validation from "getting it done," even when no one gives a shit on the other side of the table.

 

That's probably a good thing in the context of a risk mitigation career. But it makes you incredibly vulnerable at the negotiating table.

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Side note: many at AA have been on the APA sucks so let’s go ALPA train…and the totally underwhelming agreement that came out for a vote from the NC at UALPA was just proof that it’s not the easy fix solution to switch to ALPA.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Side note: many at AA have been on the APA sucks so let’s go ALPA train…and the totally underwhelming agreement that came out for a vote from the NC at UALPA was just proof that it’s not the easy fix solution to switch to ALPA.

 

 

Worked under ALPA at two carriers now, as well as APA for a short while...agreed, same shit, different day!  Which is not all bad, as much as we love to bitch about he union, they do some great shit for us (and me personally).  It's just that, no matter the union, the ugly politics are there.  

Edited by SocialD
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I'm not savvy to the inner workings of labor negotiations at the airlines.

If airline management is offering substandard contract terms, is that just a sign that they're anticipating a slowdown in the industry?  And they're just trying to "run out the clock" until the economy cools, airline traffic decreases, and union members have less bargaining power?

Is there any penalty for the airlines if they keep "kicking the can down the road" when it comes to signing a pilot contract?

 

 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Blue said:

I'm not savvy to the inner workings of labor negotiations at the airlines.

If airline management is offering substandard contract terms, is that just a sign that they're anticipating a slowdown in the industry?  And they're just trying to "run out the clock" until the economy cools, airline traffic decreases, and union members have less bargaining power?

Is there any penalty for the airlines if they keep "kicking the can down the road" when it comes to signing a pilot contract?

 

 

Yes; this is exactly what they are doing.  Trust me; management is smarter than we are.

No.  Other than flying our contract, there's not much the pilot group can do.  I keep hearing that we need to stop picking up open time/premium.  LOL!!! Yeah, like that's going to happen when people are making tens of, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars per year picking up premium.  The "stick it to the company" is just not happening across the pilot group because this industry drives a "feast or famine/get it while you can" attitude.  Tomorrow may not be as lucrative.

Edited by TheNewGazmo
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