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The Next President is...


disgruntledemployee

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1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

*If* hypothetical protestors do storm federal buildings, beat up cops and attempt to overturn the working of our government via violence, I’ll be first in line to condemn them! 

But none of that has happened

What are your feelings on BLM riots & ANTIFA attacks on federal buildings in Portland?

 

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1 minute ago, HeloDude said:

Do you think the GOP will take the majority in the House? 

I thought there was no way they wouldn't.  But apparently SCOTUS found the one way to jeopardize it.

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4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I’m not quite sure what happened on April 3rd, but ok 😅

*If* hypothetical protestors do storm federal buildings, beat up cops and attempt to overturn the working of our government via violence, I’ll be first in line to condemn them! I would not say what Newsome said, next time @ him rather than me.

But none of that has happened; Jan 6th, 2021 did happen, and rightly some of those who took part are now being held accountable.

As far as the future goes, who knows, but it never fails that…

image.jpeg.a1192886b2042e5af7aa0fba6bcb408d.jpeg

I believe the draft was dated April 3rd...but ok it was released on May 3rd and now we have threats and endorsement from a sitting Governor to fight and burn it down...

So to be clear its cool when BLM and Antifa actually do storm and burn down government buildings or do you condemn them?  Also, you can threaten violence or say fight like hell and it is cool if it come from a liberal.

Thanks, it all makes sense now.

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4 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

What are your feelings on BLM riots & ANTIFA attacks on federal buildings in Portland?

Strongly negative. Letting those Portland protests go on for so long was an embarrassment. Go get a job you dirty hippies!

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2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

So to be clear its cool when BLM and Antifa actually do storm and burn down government buildings or do you condemn them?  Also, you can threaten violence or say fight like hell and it is cool if it come from a liberal.

Thanks, it all makes sense now.

See above; no. I don’t support violent protests or riots, I don’t support storming government buildings in order to try to change policy, and I don’t support political leaders inflaming their followers with fighting words that drive more violent action.

I’m assuming you feel similarly about the Bundy Standoff in 2016 and the Jan 6, 2021 insurrection & associated statements and in some cases outright participation from GOP political leaders? I genuinely hope so!

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3 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

See above; no. I don’t support violent protests or riots, I don’t support storming government buildings in order to try to change policy, and I don’t support political leaders inflaming their followers with fighting words that drive more violent action.

I’m assuming you feel similarly about the Buddy Standoff in 2016 and the Jan 6, 2021 insurrection & associated statements and in some cases outright participation from GOP political leaders? I genuinely hope so!

You don't support but do you condemn BLM and Antifa?  Should they be prosecuted with the same veracity for burning government buildings?

Honestly I didn't follow the details of the Buddy Stand off but I will take your word for it. 

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14 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

You don't support but do you condemn BLM and Antifa?  Should they be prosecuted with the same veracity for burning government buildings?

Am I under arrest officer or am I free to go? Dissecting words here like I’m on trial, good grief.

Yes, I, nsplayr of BO.net do hereby once and for all condemn violent protests/riots/insurrections that damage government (or private!) buildings, hurt cops (or innocent bystanders!) and especially which attempt to change government policy via violence, regardless of who participates.

In case it was for some reason unclear based on me previously saying I feel “strongly negative” toward these events and “don’t support” them 🙄

Do you feel the same about Jan 6th, 2021? How about the Bundy Standoff? I’m mainly talking there about the 2016 incident in Oregon. How about bombing abortion clinics, the Oklahoma City federal building, or the Nashville Christmas Day bombing?

My take: they’re all bad! Violence in the name of domestic political aims or insane political conspiracy theories is bad and people who do it are bad and should be arrested, prosecuted, and convicted if guilty.

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3 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Am I under arrest officer or am I free to go? Dissecting words here like I’m on trial, good grief.

Yes, I, nsplayr of BO.net do hereby once and for all condemn violent protests/riots/insurrections that damage government (or private!) buildings, hurt cops (or innocent bystanders!) and especially which attempt to change government policy via violence, regardless of who participates.

In case it was for some reason unclear based on me previously saying I feel “strongly negative” toward these events and “don’t support” them 🙄

Do you feel the same about Jan 6th, 2021? How about the Bundy Standoff? I’m mainly talking there about the 2016 incident in Oregon. How about bombing abortion clinics, the Oklahoma City federal building, or the Nashville Christmas Day bombing?

My take: they’re all bad! Violence in the name of domestic political aims or insane political conspiracy theories is bad and people who do it are bad and should be arrested, prosecuted, and convicted if guilty.

Good job, see that wasn't so hard.

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On 4/28/2022 at 10:42 AM, ClearedHot said:

While I don't lay all of the blame for our current situation at the feet of the Biden Administration, I think four big factors would have been very different had Trump won the election.

Energy costs - Whatever you think about pipelines and the actual utility of the Keystone Pipeline, the Biden administration launched multiple executive orders at the energy industry which have most certainly impacted the price and availability of oil.  The narratives are all over the place but when you attack pipelines, refineries and drilling, you are going to impact the price of oil.  The administration is attempting to spin many of these issues like the 9,000 unused leases on federal land without admitting they are holding up many of those leases through lawsuits.  Both sides are guilty and there are other factors like Putin going into Ukraine but ultimately Biden's policy has caused the price of oil to nearly doubled since he took office and most of that run up occurred well before Russia launched their attack. 

Continuing stimulus - Obviously we needed stimulus and support during a pandemic, but Biden continued to dump gasoline on what most knew was a raging fire.  $1.9T in relief and payments kept people out of the workforce WAY longer than was needed.  All that extra cash without workers available to produce goods caused a huge bubble of demand to surge through the economy.  While the supply chain issues are not entirely Biden's fault, some of that blame does fall on the DNC and their unions, just look at the situation at the Long Beach Port.  Crane operators making $250,000 a year refusing to work overtime in an emergency, refusing to allow non-union workers to help in an emergency and refusing to surge the port to 24 hour a day operations.  I honestly think Trump would have federalized that operation, at least temporarily.  I hope we learned our lesson on this one.

COVID Lockdown Policy - Biden and his Uber left folks kept things closed WAY too long.  The implications have had second and third order effects all across the economy.

Fed Policy - While the Fed is meant to be an independent body they do seem to follow the lead of the President.  They certainly did under Trump.  The Fed COMPLETELY missed the boat on interest rates.  They should have been slowly raising rates a year ago but they waited on perception of Biden and partially in response surging energy prices.  Now that they are late to the game they are trying to fix everything all at once.  When you signal four consecutive 50 basis point raises, the possibility of a 75 point basis raise, openly say interest rates should equal or exceed inflation and out right say the interest rate raises should be "front loaded", you again crush the economy.  Most people don't realize the impact of increasing interest rates.  Look at the report released today showing 1.4% GDP contraction, if you dig into the numbers you will see a decrease in home sales of over 1.5%.  That will further crush the economy as fewer people buy appliances, building materials and other home upgrades.  As my wealth advisor put it yesterday, they are going from creating inflation to completely putting out any fire related to the economy.  As a frame of reference the U.S. Economy went from 6.9% in Q4 2021 to -1.4% in Q1 2022.

Got to push back on you here. When the FED tried raising the interest rates back in 2017-2018, Trump lost his mind and was publicly excoriating Powell everyday as the stock market slid. I don't think there's a chance in hell that he would suddenly find God on sound fiscal policy, which was always a weakness for him. It is certainly possible that the inflation factor would change Trump's calculus, but we certainly have no evidence to suggest that.

 

I also think Trump would have pushed for more stimulus, though not as much as the democrats. One of the biggest drivers of inflation in this economy was the direct payments to consumers from the government, and that part of stimulus I think Trump would have wholeheartedly endorsed.

 

Agree on energy policy, agree on covid policy.

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22 hours ago, kaputt said:

Regardless of how one feels on abortion itself, this will likely strategically backfire on Republicans/Conservatives. 
 

Roe v Wade to the left is like the second amendment to the right, and all the stops are going to come out to spin this against conservatives. Also many moderates in this country were fine with the status quo. Look at the polling, 60% of Americans did not want to see Roe v Wade overturned, despite what their personal views on abortion were. 
 

All the shit going wrong in this country right now and reversing Roe v Wade is what conservatives are going to hang their hat on as a midterm approaches. Absolutely moronic; thank you Bible Belt southern states (and I live in one), for bringing this to the forefront at such a crucial time. 

I'm actually skeptical. A lot of the people who give a shit about this issue live in states that are absolutely not going to change abortion access.

 

There's also a 0% chance that abortion takes a meaningful position on the list of Americans concerns when the economy is doing poorly. Again, they didn't make abortion illegal, though some states certainly will, and the people in those states are already used to living in an abortion-hostile environment.

 

While it may have been politically risky, it was absolutely the right thing to do legally. If you haven't taken the time to read the draft ruling, it's only about 40 to 50 pages of actual text, and Scalia did an excellent job laying out the sheer lunacy of both the Roe and Casey rulings.

 

We need a greater return to states rights. The ideological differences in this country are growing, and you don't solve ideological differences by forcing one side to do what the other wants. That goes for both the left and the right.

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15 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I’m assuming you feel similarly about the Bundy Standoff in 2016

I'm not sure what your point here is, but the Bundy standoff in 2014 is one of the best examples of why the second amendment matters in modern history (the second being Waco).

In the Bundy standoffs, BLM nonsense and executive rulemaking were challenged with the threat of violence. Had there been no guns everyone knows the Bundy's would have been rounded up in one day and the issue would have never made the spotlight. Instead. the constitutional right to have weapons offset the power of the government and introduced a limiting principal to the random rulemaking power of the BLM: are we willing to hurt people to enforce this rule. The government should always have to perform this calculus before making a rule or law. This was a case of the 2nd Amendment limiting the government without bloodshed.

 

In the case of Waco, government overreach and zeal resulted in a horrifying loss of life. But the aftermath changed the way the government operates. This was a case of the 2nd Amendment limiting the government with bloodshed.

In both cases, only the 2nd Amendment allowed for important limitations on government intervention.

 

As far as Bundy, in 2016 he was arrested and charged, which curiously ended with this little nugget:

 

Quote

On December 21, 2017, a mistrial was declared by Judge Navarro, citing a "willful" failure by federal prosecutors to turn over FBI and BLM documents that would potentially aid the defense.[64] Soon thereafter on January 8, 2018, Navarro dismissed with prejudice all charges against Cliven Bundy and his sons, thus forbidding any retrial of the defendants. In her decision, Navarro further criticized prosecutors for willful violations of defendants' due process rights, as well as the aforementioned failure to properly turn over evidence to their lawyers.[4] The government appealed the dismissal.

 

So I'm not sure you're making the point you wish to make about Bundy.

 

Jan 6th, however, was a mess. Inspired (though not legally incited) by Trump. If you're wondering why Republicans are so reluctant to care about it, you'd have to appreciate the years of double-standard-outrage the left has imposed on the right. A year earlier the left was literally cheering on rioters. 

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On 1/26/2022 at 11:48 PM, nsplayr said:

Believe what you want on the other points, but this is not true.

  • DJIA close 3 Nov 2020 (election day): 27,480
  • DJIA close 20 Jan 2021 (inauguration day): 31,188
  • DJIA close 26 Jan 2022 (today): 34,168

 

  • S&P 500 close 3 Nov 2020: 3,369
  • S&P 500 close 20 Jan 2021: 3,851
  • S&P 500 close 26 Jan 2022: 4,349

Stocks have indeed taken a dip off all-time highs in the last 3 weeks but...🤷‍♂️

How about now?

DJIA 32,432 = today - 8.5% inflation = 29586

S&P500 = 4108 today - 8.5% inflation = 3759

You didn't include the NASDAQ before:

NASDAQ close 20 Jan 2021 = 13,197.18

NASDAQ today = 11,700.66 - 8.5% inflation = 10706

Your boy is knocking it out of the park, it just gets better and better, we are all so much better off.

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10 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

You don’t just deduct an inflation % off of stock indeces closing prices lol 😅

Humor Boomer GIF

When it comes to purchasing power it most certainly does.

Even without the loss of purchasing power from inflation his DOW and S&P gain are almost a wash and his "pure" loss on the NASDAQ is 11%...building back better!

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1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

You don’t just deduct an inflation % off of stock indeces closing prices lol 😅

Humor Boomer GIF

Progressives:  You need to adjust the minimum wage for inflation.

Also progressives:  When the market is up, you don’t adjust for inflation.

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On 5/4/2022 at 2:26 PM, ClearedHot said:

I believe the draft was dated April 3rd...but ok it was released on May 3rd and now we have threats and endorsement from a sitting Governor to fight and burn it down...

So to be clear its cool when BLM and Antifa actually do storm and burn down government buildings or do you condemn them?  Also, you can threaten violence or say fight like hell and it is cool if it come from a liberal.

Thanks, it all makes sense now.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/01/07/8-times-left-wing-protesters-broke-into-government-buildings-and-assaulted-democracy/

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3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

When it comes to purchasing power it most certainly does.

Even without the loss of purchasing power from inflation his DOW and S&P gain are almost a wash and his "pure" loss on the NASDAQ is 11%...building back better!

If you want to compare real returns over several periods of time that’s great, inflation plays a part in that calculation. But there’s more information needed: when did you you buy, when did you sell, etc.

But what you can’t do is say, “The S&P 500 was at 6,900 under Trump, and today under Biden it’s 7,069 but minus 8.5% inflation so it’s really 6,468 ergo it’s lower ergo Libs suck!!!!1”

If you would like to have a conversation about stock gains under different administrations, if that is even a good measure of success or failure, how real returns have faired over time, if real wages are growing over time, what measure of inflation best represents the average person’s experience vs what measure can government policy affect in the short term, etc., I’m potentially open to that.

If you just want to say, “Stocks down, Biden sucks, LGB” feel free to do that without tagging me 🍺 You will not find me currently arguing stock performance is amazing or that inflation is not a problem - neither are true anymore!

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1 hour ago, dream big said:

Shhhh, enough with that.  It’s only news worthy when it’s the right.  Not that you can legitimately associate the larpsters and mr Viking hat with any respectable spectrum of republicans. 

I would argue that you could add the current protest at SCOTUS justice homes onto that list since I recently learned it is actually against federal law to protest outside the home of a justice deciding a case. (Considered judicial intimidation, same as jury intimidation)

I said I wouldn't wade into a Roe v Wade discussion but I am baffled by the tolerance and even encouragement of this behavior. 

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