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The Next President is...


disgruntledemployee

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2 hours ago, FourFans said:

 

P.S.  Life isn't fair.  Trying to make it 'fair' as defined by one section of society only makes it worse.

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

I guess you forgot the first and most significant part of the Preamble to the Constitution. Life may not be fair, but we should always be striving to ensure we achieve "Liberty and Justice for all."  What does Justice mean?

Justice, in its broadest sense, is the concept that individuals are to be treated in a manner that is equitable and fair.

This is what people fail to remember when they say "Life isn't fair" or "Fairness is socialism" or "DEI is racism". They forget that the very first objective the Preamble states is to "Establish Justice." Even if you interpret Justice in this context to mean Justice in the eyes of the law, that still requires fairness.

I cringe at almost everything the modern Republican does these days since its goes directly against the Constitution.

Diminish and seek to eradicate LGBTQ+ people? That's definitely establishing justice.

Eliminate programs like DEI and the ultra scary "Critical Race Theory" that seek to highlight institutional discrimination? Lots of justice there.

Create a state where armed individuals/cops can essentially kill whoever they want (especially minorities) while suffering 0 consequences? Definitely a more perfect Union with a ton of justice.

Denying the outcome of a free and fair election without a shred of evidence to back-up any of their claims? Dang man, those Republicans really want Justice.

I could go on and on with examples of Republicans ignoring the Constitution, much like how Fourfans just ignored Prozac's post and keeps asking him "Why, Why, Why", showing an excellent example of the start of the infinite regress fallacy. No matter what Prozac types, Fourfans will just keep asking him "Why" so he can attempt to win the online argument. This is a very common tactic that weak debaters use to defend their weak positions. Definitely not surprised to see it on this forum.

 

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43 minutes ago, 500Stable said:

Justice, in its broadest sense, is the concept that individuals are to be treated in a manner that is equitable and fair.

 

Ah there it is. The single most dangerous word in use in America today. You got the fairness part right, but there is nothing about Justice that has to be equitable. In fact there has been nothing in the founding of this country that has desired or guaranteed “equitable” outcomes. 
 

The left really struck a home run when they realized how easily equitable could be transposed for equality and use it to confuse the masses on what we should be striving for.  
 

Btw, here’s Cornell’s definition of justice. “Justice is the ethical, philosophical idea that people are to be treated impartially, fairly, properly, and reasonably by the law and by arbiters of the law, that laws are to ensure that no harm befalls another, and that, where harm is alleged, a remedial action is taken - both the accuser and the accused receive a morally right consequence merited by their actions.”

The rest of your post is idiocy honestly. Cops killing anyone they want and eradicating LGBTQ people? Could you be more of a caricature of super leftest speak? 

 

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2 hours ago, 500Stable said:

This is a very common tactic that weak debaters use to defend their weak positions. Definitely not surprised to see it on this forum.

Coming from a human who created a burner account to argue with Fourfans lol.   Nerd.  

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13 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Adjusted for population and as compared to the rest of Tennessee and the nation, some sad numbers emerge.  The violent crime rate in Nashville is almost double the rate of the rest of Tennessee and nearly triple the national average.  The property crime and other crimes categories follow the same trend.

Nsplayr doesn’t even live in Nashville…he said he lives “near” Nashville.  He doesn’t seem to like to respond to me, so someone should ask him why he doesn’t live in the city limits and also why he didn’t want to send his kids to Nashville public schools, you know, because they’re so great?

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29 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Nsplayr doesn’t even live in Nashville…he said he lives “near” Nashville.  He doesn’t seem to like to respond to me, so someone should ask him why he doesn’t live in the city limits and also why he didn’t want to send his kids to Nashville public schools, you know, because they’re so great?

I have you on mute bro, give it up. Engaging with you isn't fruitful. One-time exception because I'm a degenerate and enjoy banging my head against the wall apparently.

We moved out of the city limits after 7+ years to be closer to my aging parents who had moved nearby. Even with them relatively close, it was annoyingly far for how often I wanted to be there to help them and spend time with them.

Absolutely nothing about the city "drove" me away, as I'm sure you imagined in you're weird obsession with me and my life.

I sent my older kid to a Nashville public school K-5 and it was great. My wife was a Nashville public school teacher as well. I miss our old walkable, urban neighborhood & our good friends, and we go back to visit often. Overall though, moving was the right decision for my family in the broader sense than just who lives inside my four walls.

Now please feel free to have a nice life and stop @ing me.

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4 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I have you on mute bro, give it up. Engaging with you isn't fruitful. One-time exception because I'm a degenerate and enjoy banging my head against the wall apparently.

Copy.  I appreciate you response about Nashville.  And honestly, I wish the best for your parents/family.

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14 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

As you know I have spent a LOT of time in Nashville and what you are saying is simply not true unless you are ignoring crime.

Aside from lunatics detonating bomb laden RVs in the center of town you also have some other statistics that are counter to your assertion.  In particular, violent crime is up year over year and increasing with homicide setting new records.  Over the last decade homicide in Nashville is up a staggering 78%...hardly the utopian liberal hemp fest you are suggesting.  Oh and according to current reports, after a 27% increase in 2019 and 2020, the 2023 homicide rate is up another 8.7% as compared to the same time in 2022...congrats!

Adjusted for population and as compared to the rest of Tennessee and the nation, some sad numbers emerge.  The violent crime rate in Nashville is almost double the rate of the rest of Tennessee and nearly triple the national average.  The property crime and other crimes categories follow the same trend.

I'm not sure where the stats from your paragraph are from, if you'd like to share I'll check out a link.

Your graphs compared Nashville to the rest of the state, which is apples to oranges. You need to compare the same place in different years for a fair comparison. Crime (and life!) is obviously different in BFE than in downtown Manhattan.

Here's what I know, based on the data the city provides. I didn't take the time to make a pretty graph because the data is provided in a table, as a PDF 🙄 Too much work for the dumbest hobby ever, forum posting.

What I'm looking at is the crime per capita (per 100K residents) from 1963 through 2021, the latest year they provide data for. It can be found here. Crime per capita to me is the fairest measure because measure X in relation to measure Y is much more meaningful than measure X as just an absolute value. For example, there is absolutely no crime on the moon! Statistically it's the safest place you can live /sarcasm

Some highlights:

Total crime varied from a low of 3,188.9 in 1965 to a high of 11,146.0 in 1996. Recent numbers are 5,475.8 in 2020 and 5,080.0 in 2021.  So total crime is now less than half of the peak worst year.

Violent crime has been pretty stable since 1987 (the data before then is lower with a cliff-like step change between 1985 and 1987...I suspect there was a change in how violent crime was categorized before then). From 1987 - 2021, the low was 1,105.2 in 2019 and the high was 1,963.2 in 1996. So the safest year for violent crime in Nashville in nearly my whole lifetime was a year when I lived there!

You mentioned murder, which is indeed up. Although "up" is from an aberrantly low level between 2010 and 2014. Murder bottomed out in 2014 at 6.5 and is troublingly back up to 14.8 in 2021. The peak high though was 20.3 in 1997, and the historical average over 59 years is 14.6, so we're basically back to exactly historical average. Needless to say even one murder is too many, and whatever we did to drive murder down for a few years, let's do it again!

Property crime between 1963 and 2021 varied from a low of 2,885.7 in 1965 to a high of 9,183.8 in 1996. Man, 1996 was a terrible year for Nashville! Luckily in 2021 it's down to 3,836.8.

This would all be more compelling with graphs vs random data vomited into a forum post, I get it, sorry. If you wanna TL;DR I don't blame you.

Bottom line on bottom

Crime per capita in Nashville is significantly lower now than in the mid-1990s. Total crime has been quite stable since 2013, locked in at that relatively lower level. Violent crime was the lowest it's been in a generation in 2019!

My point: negativity against cities in right-wing circles is grossly overblown. The city I know best, where I lived for 7+ years and continue to live near, is a safe, prosperous, fun place to visit, work, and raise a family. The trends on crime here are either static or declining, and crime is much lower than when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s.

YMMV with other cities, but if you wanna make the argument that a certain city is a dumpster fire shithole or some other hyperbolic BS, best bring receipts.

 

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48 minutes ago, lloyd christmas said:

The next President is Nashville? 

I'd vote for Nashville over a stumbling, babbling elderly gentleman suffering from dementia.  Getting them all on Air Force 1 should be entertaining.

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11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I'm not sure where the stats from your paragraph are from, if you'd like to share I'll check out a link.

Nashville.gov

Nashville, TN Is Among the Most Dangerous US Metro Areas

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/nashville/violent-crime-rates-nashville-2022-report/

11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Your graphs compared Nashville to the rest of the state, which is apples to oranges. You need to compare the same place in different years for a fair comparison. Crime (and life!) is obviously different in BFE than in downtown Manhattan.

It is not apples to oranges.  You have repeatedly stated all the big cities are run by democrats, that data (adjusted for population), clearly shows the rate of crime, especially violent crime is far higher when you live in an area controlled by democrats.  Interestingly the 2022 election results by county directly correlates to that data set.Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 5.40.40 AM.png

11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

What I'm looking at is the crime per capita (per 100K residents) from 1963 through 2021, the latest year they provide data for. It can be found here. Crime per capita to me is the fairest measure because measure X in relation to measure Y is much more meaningful than measure X as just an absolute value. For example, there is absolutely no crime on the moon! Statistically it's the safest place you can live /sarcasm

Ummm the graphs I posted are indeed population adjusted, Perhaps you didn't actually read them? 🤷‍♂️  You used data adjusted to 100K, the graphs I posted are more granular (FBI data sets), and are down to 1K.

11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Bottom line on bottom

Bottomline - you assert Nashville has never been better, that simply is not true, especially the past four years.

Your data set stops in 2021, the data I highlighted continues in to 2023.  From your data and mine, yes some crime is down, but violent crime (the crap that matters to me), is way up, particularly over the past four years.  Violent crime and murder are up 29%, I would invite you to focus on the bottom lines of the link YOU posted...notice the red?  Walk the data out to current day.  Violent crime, especially since the last election when the dems went soft on crime, is unsurprisingly way up.  A very telling quote from the story WKRN did "This year was the third year there had been over 100 homicides reported in Davidson County by Dec. 24. It was an 82.8% increase compared to just 10 years ago when there were only 58 homicides reported."  We both know Nashville is fast growing city, but the growth rate over the last ten years is 20.9% while the murder rate is up 82.8%.  Doesn't sound better than ever to me...

The FBI stats as of January stop at 2021 (no idea why it takes them so long), but as of 2020 Nashville was #41 in FBI ranking of most dangerous cities in the United States.  Given violent crime is accelerating thanks to the radical Dem policy of "Defund the Police", it will be interesting to see how Nashville relates to other cities.

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 6.07.44 AM.png

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55 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

 

 

It is not apples to oranges.  You have repeatedly stated all the big cities are run by democrats, that data (adjusted for population), clearly shows the rate of crime, especially violent crime is far higher when you live in an area controlled by democrats.  Interestingly the 2022 election results by county directly correlates to that data set.Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 5.40.40 AM.png

 

I'm glad you bring up rate of crime, since it shows just how equally prevalent (if not more so) violent crime is in areas that vote red.

Interesting enough, your own source you cite ( Nashville, TN Is Among the Most Dangerous US Metro Areas ) lists dozens of republican run cities with far higher rates than Nashville. Sure Memphis is #1, but I lost count of the GOP run cities on that list not to mention Anchorage with a violent crime rate almost double that of Nashville.

Not even trying to blame it on Republicans, just pointing out that correlating crime rates to the political party that runs the city is a fallacy and a pointless argument. 

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1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

that data (adjusted for population), clearly shows the rate of crime, especially violent crime is far higher when you live in an area controlled by democrats.

Correlation does not equal causation. Crime rates have always been higher in large cities, regardless of who was in charge. Look, I won’t argue with you that some ultra liberal policies have had negative consequences (homeless encampments, open drug use, etc). I share many of those sentiments and would like to see change (and I am seeing some positive movement in certain areas). But your statement above is pure fallacy. 

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38 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Correlation does not equal causation. Crime rates have always been higher in large cities, regardless of who was in charge. Look, I won’t argue with you that some ultra liberal policies have had negative consequences (homeless encampments, open drug use, etc). I share many of those sentiments and would like to see change (and I am seeing some positive movement in certain areas). But your statement above is pure fallacy. 

I know the truth hurts...

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2 hours ago, slc said:

How do we change this? 

Well I don't personally vote for idiots like the SF DA who doesn't want to enforce the law and I don't support defunding the police. That's how I do it when I've voted in local elections in urban places!

I do also advocate for legalizing most drugs because I legitimately think that would help A) end the death-by-fentanyl epidemic, B) allow the police to focus on crimes other than drug use, and C) would give adults more freedom to legally do things they want to do and will do anyways, illegally, if the laws remain the same.

We've already legalized weed in the majority of states without a ton of negative repercussions. Good thing we locked away people for weed-related crimes for decades! /sarcasm Just like the prohibition of alcohol, the War on Drugs has failed and we need different policies.

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Hi, Left Field here...

Would a center-left candidate like Robert Kennedy Jr. lure any conservatives to vote for him?  For example, those who think Trump is a little too orange for them (whatever that means).

I don't think I could vote for him, but wondered if Kennedy is traditional democrat enough to bring some republicans?

PS: I'm actually from right-field.

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40 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

legalized weed in the majority of states without a ton of negative repercussions.

Problem is the weed smoked now is 10x more potent than the dope at Woodstock.  When weed is more readily available, it becomes like any other drug/pharmaceutical around the house, more available to kids.  Genie is out of the bottle on this one.  Will be curious to see any "negative" repercussions on these next gen stoners.....    

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5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

That's the same data I'm using, great. And it shows exactly what I said, total crime is down slightly and violent crime is up slightly from 2020 to 2021. The official 2022 data should be out next month...I'm not sure why it takes 7 months to compile & verify, but that's how the TBI works.image.thumb.png.ce6248b85de556061d5cbd2f8886c2e6.png

When compared to a long historical record though rather than just year-to-year, crime of all types in Nashville is way down from the 90s. So even if there's a 69% surge next year in some category (which we should not accept & work to correct the negative trend!), I am still able to say, "US cities in 2023 aren't shitholes, they're way better & safer than when I was growing up" and be correct.

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

247WallStreet.com isn't exactly a credible outlet, and their headline is greatly at odds with what's in the actual story.

Even their actual story, using 2020 FBI UCR data, shows that Nashville is the 41st most dangerous urban area, and OBTW that excludes many major populated areas that don't report their data to the FBI, like NYC, Phoenix, LA, most places in Florida, Illinois, etc. That particular dataset from the FBI represents less than half of the US population, so it's hardly comprehensive. So yea, when you take out a massive number of other urban areas from consideration & comparison, I guess Nashville does seem really dangerous! Probably not the best way to truly understand the reality of the situation though.

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

This is a better local news source, reporting on preliminary 2022 data, but it's still got some flaws.

Let's talk murder specifically since you're most concerned with the worst violent crime, which is understandable. Like I linked to before, murders were particularly low in Nashville in 2013 and 2014...let's do whatever we can do repeat that and drive the murder rate even lower! BUT, I'm having a hard time wetting my pants over the 2021 number...it's almost exactly average looking over a nearly 60 year timespan, and again, it's like 25% lower than in the 90s when murder peaked in the city.

From the story, they say the preliminary data shows murders were up 7.1% compared to 2021, which I again will emphasize is bad. That would put murders at ~15.9 per 100K...the highest since...2017. Looking at even a few years of trend, the numbers are:

  • 2016: 12.5
  • 2017: 16.5
  • 2018: 13.1
  • 2019: 12.2
  • 2020: 16.5
  • 2021: 14.8
  • 2022 15.9 (preliminary data)

That's just not a super compelling dataset to support the narrative that (sic) "XXX city is a shithole, it's rapidly getting worse, lock your kids away and open-carry an AR-15 to Kroger." I know you haven't said those things, but that's definitely the vibe I get from others on the right, as well the narrative incessantly pushed by Fox News. They tell their views that cities are dangerous, you shouldn't go there, they're burning down, you need a gun to protect yourself on daily errands or tourist visits, etc. and that is just not the case.

The WKRN quote your bolded about how "Murder is up 82.8% in 10 years!" is both correct and misleading of the broader trend. Like I said, 2012 and 2013 were apparently lower years for murder. 2021 was almost exactly average and 2022 preliminary data would show slightly above the 60 year average. I'll say it again, we should work hard to get back to those per capita levels of murder (or go to zero!), but to me it's not house-on-fire news to say "Murder was way down for two years, and now it's back to historical average levels." Ok.

I can tell you from lived experience that the city felt no safer nor more dangerous from year to year in that timespan, all of which I lived in Nashville proper. 2017 didn't feel super dangerous! 2019 didn't feel so much safer! It's noise on a relatively static trend. Heck, even the bar graphs you showed from that WKRN story are honestly pretty damn flat an indistinguishable year-to-year, certainly not showing a dramatic rise. 🤷‍♂️

So maybe by the crime metrics alone I was wrong to say, "Nashville has never been better." I apologize. It was better in 2019. Funny enough, the same mayor that was elected in 2019 is still the Mayor today (John Cooper, a very moderate, pro-business Dem), so IDK exactly how you want to attribute praise & scorn for both the five-year low in murder and the five-year high in murder, because they happened under the same guy's leadership.

As someone else pointed out, citing granular crime data in order to sweepingly indict one political party doesn't work that great...Dems have been mayors of Nashville continuously since like the 1950s ,and crime has waxed, waned, and waxed again. It's almost like specific local policies, state policies, national policies and trends, and the overall mood of the country matters a lot more when it comes to crime than the letter next to a Mayor's name when assessing if a city is "safe" or not at any given time.

 

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7 hours ago, nsplayr said:

We've already legalized weed in the majority of states without a ton of negative repercussions. Good thing we locked away people for weed-related crimes for decades! /sarcasm Just like the prohibition of alcohol, the War on Drugs has failed

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/doj-prosecuting-pot-using-gun-owners-despite-state-legalization/ar-AA1cdb2O?cvid=c14fc05cedda45b8b26765bad115db36&ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&ei=11
 

i like you bro, and I think we actually agree on a lot.  You’re just gullible.  Harris imprisoned so many people for weed.  Biden DOJ now prosecuting people who buy firearms and smoke weed in states where pot is legal.  You’ve been duped into voting for a senile totalitarian in sheep’s clothing.
 

FWIW, I’d vote for RFK just to see him destroy big Pharma.  But your DNC won’t even allow debates.  Because you guys value democracy so much, lol.  You’ve been had dude, you just haven’t figured it out,

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Mmm, we’ll we’re gonna have to disagree on that. Respectfully of course 🥃

I have pretty well developed political views and follow politics extremely closely. I am aware of the candidates and party I support, the policies they enact, and the values underpinning the whole thing, even if you don’t like them or think only misguided, gullible fools could even possibly like them.

Locking people up for weed is & was bad! Biden’s 90s crime bill was bad in some regards! Some of Harris’ actions as DA and AG were also bad! I support drug legalization and my party does not yet top bottom, but I’m hopeful we’ll get there. Still punching my ticket for Biden 2024 eyes wide open. I do think Harris sucks FWIW, I wish we could figure out how to dump her off the ticket…

Of all the criticisms I make, I try not to just disbelieve folks’ stated views and values, even if they are wrong IMHO. Lots of people on here throw around accusations of others being weak, gullible, blind, etc. and A) not everyone knows everyone IRL so how are you even able to make that kind of weighty judgement? and B) life just works better when you take people at their word as being complex yet genuine.

You could say you believe in some absolutely wild, contradictory shit and I will tell you I think you’re wrong, but I will try my best not to call you naive, sheltered, brainwashed, weak, a sheep, or ask about your workout routine 😅

Anyways…RFK Jr. is an unfit crank who would get bitch-slapped by his dad (who I think would have made a fantastic President) if he were alive today.

Remind me, did Trump have primary debates against anyone in 2020? There were 4 candidates who ran against him, including three who had held major elected office before (2x US reps, 1x governor).

No, of course not. Fuuuck no they did not. They dropped those debates faster than a whore’s panties.

There was also no GOP party platform in 2020, not even an attempt to codify guiding values and policies that supported those values.

And I’m not even surprised or mad at the decision to forgo debates against noners! Trump was clearly going to be the nominee as a sitting President.

So yea I’m not gonna really feel bad that fail-son RFK Jr. doesn’t get a party-endorsed stage to spout BS from and I’m also not gonna find criticism of that stance from Republicans credible at all. Maybe you’re not a Republican, and in that case, my argument is the same as the Republicans was in 2020 and I guess you can be mad at both parties then if you want.

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7 hours ago, nsplayr said:

When compared to a long historical record though rather than just year-to-year, crime of all types in Nashville is way down from the 90s. So even if there's a 69% surge next year in some category (which we should not accept & work to correct the negative trend!), I am still able to say, "US cities in 2023 aren't shitholes, they're way better & safer than when I was growing up" and be correct.

I never said Nashville is a shithole, I almost moved there and I happen to love the town.  What I said was your previous statement that Nashville is better than it has ever been is incorrect...For the past few years (mysteriously aligned with the defund the police movement), violent crimes and murder are increasing in Nashville and most other large U.S. cities.

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Back to regularly scheduled sport bitching...

Does Trump Multiple Indictments change the race?  Guessing it will harden his base and given he admitted to not declassifying some things, he is in legal peril.  A charge under the Espionage Act seems like a stretch and how do you make that argument when DOJ gave Hillary a pass when she purposely took TS/SCI SAR/SAP off a classified server and transferred them to an open system.

I wonder if the DOJ will given Biden the same Espionage Act charge for taking large amounts of classified and storing them in multiple locations including his SCIF-Garage. 

Maybe we get lucky and neither one of these clowns can run.

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26 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Back to regularly scheduled sport bitching...

Does Trump Multiple Indictments change the race?  Guessing it will harden his base and given he admitted to not declassifying some things, he is in legal peril.  A charge under the Espionage Act seems like a stretch and how do you make that argument when DOJ gave Hillary a pass when she purposely took TS/SCI SAR/SAP off a classified server and transferred them to an open system.

I wonder if the DOJ will given Biden the same Espionage Act charge for taking large amounts of classified and storing them in multiple locations including his SCIF-Garage. 

Maybe we get lucky and neither one of these clowns can run.

No one above the law (definitely applies to you if your last name is Trump)…doesn’t apply if your last name is Clinton or Biden.

I seriously can’t fathom how leftists (even those on here) can honestly say they’re ok with this happening to Trump and not Clinton, Pence, Biden, etc.  I mean, I get the fact that they hate Trump, but conservatives hated Clinton and never did anything like this when there was plenty of evidence to do so.   

I can’t stand Trump personally, and though I agreed with many (not all) of his policies, I don’t want to see him be the nominee next year…and truth be told, it would probably just be best for the country if he died peacefully in his sleep tonight.  But what’s happening right now can’t be seen as a good thing.

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