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The Next President is...


disgruntledemployee

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7 hours ago, HeloDude said:

My final prediction:

GOP: 52 Senate seats, 241 seats in the House (that might be a little high).  For competitive Gov races, GOP wins KS, WI, NV, and AZ.  They “might” win OR, but I’d say no.  I think NY will be close, but GOP won’t win.

Assuming my predictions are correct, when will Biden/left say that democracy is over?  Since that’s what they told us if the Dems lose.

This didn't age well.

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21 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

Very disappointing night for republicans. 
 

the message is clear: trump is done. It’s desantis in 2024. 

Wouldn’t say disappointing but not a red wave like many were predicting. Republicans will take the house, new Speaker will be a Republican.  Senate stays split. 
 

Furthermore, Florida, Ohio and Texas remain solidly red, three states Democrats have targeted for years. No one is winning the presidency without one of those states. Also, Beto and Stacey lose again! 
 

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

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41 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

This didn't age well.

Haha nope!  In 2016, 2018, and 2020, Larry Sabato (who I still kind of follow) got all his statewide races for his GOP favorites right, but when he was wrong, it was when he picked a Dem over a GOP.  He had 51 for the GOP and 237 for the House.  I figured based on what he gets right vs wrong, the GOP would fair slightly better than his prediction.  But it turns out this time, he overestimated the GOP.

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37 minutes ago, dream big said:

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

Quoted for posterity.  

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10 hours ago, dream big said:

Wouldn’t say disappointing but not a red wave like many were predicting. Republicans will take the house, new Speaker will be a Republican.  Senate stays split. 
 

Furthermore, Florida, Ohio and Texas remain solidly red, three states Democrats have targeted for years. No one is winning the presidency without one of those states. Also, Beto and Stacey lose again! 
 

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

It looks like the DNC strategy to promote "Trump MAGA" candidates in the primaries was successful which does indeed say Trump's influence is in decline.  Let's see what his "big" announcement is on the 14th.  If he gets out of the way it would be a very good thing for the GOP, sadly I don't think his ego will allow for the greater good.

Personally I would go Desantis/Haley in 2024.  I think the dems will eventually dump Biden and push Gavin Newsome along with another extremist.

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As usual, both parties will likely come away with the wrong messages. Ds will say they’re still large & in charge, and Rs will double down on the Trumpiness. In reality, frustration with the economy & some of the more extreme policy points on the Democratic side is real. This should’ve been Republicans’ midterms to lose. But people are equally frustrated with Republican positions. Both parties have been captured by their “bases” whoever those people are. They’re definitely not the average Joe who just wants to live his life while his 401k does ok, the fire trucks show up when there’s a fire, the potholes on his way to work get fixed, & the government stays out of his religious beliefs and decisions. Neither party is offering that at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

It looks like the DNC strategy to promote "Trump MAGA" candidates in the primaries was successful which does indeed say Trump's influence is in decline.  Let's see what his "big" announcement is on the 14th.  If he gets out of the way it would be a very good thing for the GOP, sadly I don't think his ego will allow for the greater good.

Personally I would go Desantis/Haley in 2024.  I think the dems will eventually dumb Biden and push Gavin Newsome along with another extremist.

Desantis/Haley will be a tough one for the current democrat party to beat.  

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10 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Biden won while losing all 3 of those states.

I stand corrected in my absolute, however Ohio and Florida, states that used to be purple are solidly red. The Dems have spent millions trying to “flip Texas blue,” and haven’t come close. That’s not great news for them.

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6 minutes ago, dream big said:

I stand corrected in my absolute, however Ohio and Florida, states that used to be purple are solidly red. The Dems have spent millions trying to “flip Texas blue,” and haven’t come close. That’s not great news for them.

A few interesting stats:

1.  The DNC has spent over $200M on Beto on three separate elections, $100M on last night's election alone, he has lost every attempt.

2.  The DNC has spent over $100M on Stacy Adams on two elections, both of which she lost.  During her most recent campaign she was raising (and spending), funds at a rate of 3:1 on Kemp, and she still lost. 

Do you think either one of these extremists will get the message?

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To me (non-party affiliated voter), the biggest takeaway is that candidate quality matters. Pennsylvania senate race between Oz and Fetterman should've been the easiest win ever based on Fetterman and his stroke + debate performance. Or juxtaposing the Georgia senate race with the state governor race. How the hell does Herschel Walker end up as the nominee when he was very clearly not qualified for the job. At the same time, Brian Kemp (who Trump hates) beats Democratic super candidate (ref CH post above) by a significant margin.

It's that the makes me think Desantis will absolutely roll in 2024 unless Trump pulls a Ross Perot and siphons off significant votes from the Republican candidate. Please don't interpret that I'm equating Ross Perot and Donald Trump on a personal level. Purely a corollary to splitting the GOP vote. 

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1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

2.  The DNC has spent over $100M on Stacy Adams on two elections, both of which she lost.  During her most recent campaign she was raising (and spending), funds at a rate of 3:1 on Kemp, and she still lost. 

 

Stacey Abrams was never a serious candidate.  More akin to the Maxine Waters type who takes the campaign money and funnels it to friends and family.  She herself has gotten very wealthy for accomplishing little in life. 

Pennsylvania is what astounds me.  They elected a brain damaged candidate to the US Senate, and in their statehouse, elected a candidate who died a month ago.  Is it shadiness or stupidity?  I'm not sure I'm comfortable with either answer.         

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Stacey Abrams was never a serious candidate.  More akin to the Maxine Waters type who takes the campaign money and funnels it to friends and family.  She herself has gotten very wealthy for accomplishing little in life. 
Pennsylvania is what astounds me.  They elected a brain damaged candidate to the US Senate, and in their statehouse, elected a candidate who died a month ago.  Is it shadiness or stupidity?  I'm not sure I'm comfortable with either answer.         


According to my wife, it’s shadiness. She used to be involved with PA politics and she said it’s shady.


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image.jpeg.b87337ecbda2ad45b7922442be61861e.jpeg

Cheers to all my Republican/conservative friends 🍺 

The House is still too close to call but either side will have an extremely slim majority. The Senate will either be +1 to the Dems or decided in another December GA runoff.

Glad to see some of my favorite elected leaders & ballot issues have good nights (Polis in CO, Spanberger in VA, weed legalization in MO and MD, Medicaid expansion in SD.) I'm glad voting seemed to have gone smoothly and at least so far I don't see anyone throwing a fit about the results.

Overall it was a very strong performance at a midterm for a party with trifecta control of DC, the norm would have been to lose ~30 House seats and a handful of Senate seats. It may end up being -4 in the House while maintaining control and +1 in the Senate, which is batting well, well above that historical average.

Hopefully the GOP will put some more thought into blindly following Trump endorsements re: candidate quality. I want to see better candidates from both parties!

On the plus side for the GOP, y'all may yet still get one or both chambers when all the results are finalized, the 2024 Senate map is brutal for Dems, and Biden's age will be a factor even more so than 2020 for his potential reelection.

Better luck next time!

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3 hours ago, NKAWTG said:

Stacey Abrams was never a serious candidate.  More akin to the Maxine Waters type who takes the campaign money and funnels it to friends and family.  She herself has gotten very wealthy for accomplishing little in life. 

Pennsylvania is what astounds me.  They elected a brain damaged candidate to the US Senate, and in their statehouse, elected a candidate who died a month ago.  Is it shadiness or stupidity?  I'm not sure I'm comfortable with either answer.       

It is in the GOP’s best interest that the DNC keeps funneling money to Abrams to run. She’s far too dangerous as a non-candidate to them getting people who don’t normally vote to vote. Watch was she does with the upcoming runoff on 12/6.

Iowa re-elected a dinosaur in Grassley. There is no reason why anyone in their 70s+ should be in in the Executive or Legislative Branch.

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1 hour ago, bfargin said:

If it were only libs we’d be OK. With the numerous leftist serving and miraculously re-elected, it’s not looking good for the nation. I’m not sure we can survive intact with too many years of Build back Better

To be fair, Majorie T Greene was re-elected by a giant majority......

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5 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

Colorado showed up and said eating shrooms is cool, but not selling liquor in grocery stores.

I live in Denver and loved the petitions for the booze in grocery stores thing. A bunch of old retired white dudes that looked absolutely hammered in the middle of the afternoon on a Tuesday. Naturally I signed and voted for it.

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33 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

I live in Denver and loved the petitions for the booze in grocery stores thing. A bunch of old retired white dudes that looked absolutely hammered in the middle of the afternoon on a Tuesday. Naturally I signed and voted for it.

I’m in Parker. I voted for it too since, to me, it made sense since they already sold beer in grocery stores.

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