The Next President is...

[pawnman]

18 hours ago, FLEA said:

Its an observation. If you're going to dismiss it as tribal nonsense, extrapolate. Why do you think democrats would significantly poll differently? 

Of note, in the same poll, dems are more willing to support Ukrainian refugees than Republicans. This indicates a significant difference in values and perceived responsibilities in a security challenged world. I have my ideas and none of them cast anyone as the bad guy, im just curious what other people think first. 

 

Edit: Also of note, this is a university poll, not a media poll. which gives it a bit more relevance in my opinion since it would have had to meet scholastic norms for ethical human research and it would have deliberately tried to omit population biases. 

Here is a link to the study if anyone is interested in reading it: 

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03072022_ujca44.pdf

Omit population biases? Its focused on college students - people who are predominantly from wealthier families, and who skew away from violence in almost all forms.

[FLEA]

4 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Omit population biases? Its focused on college students - people who are predominantly from wealthier families, and who skew away from violence in almost all forms.

They have a full population sample up to 65+. Where do you see it focused on college students? A university poll means it was conducted by a university, doesn't mean it just poll'd university students. 

From the study "The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones."

"1,374 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from March 4th – 6 th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points."

Edited March 8, 2022 by FLEA

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, FLEA said:

They have a full population sample up to 65+. Where do you see it focused on college students? A university poll means it was conducted by a university, doesn't mean it just poll'd university students. 

From the study "The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones."

Ah. In that case, it likely skews much older than average. Good luck get a twenty-something to answer an unknown number, and good luck finding anyone under 30 with a landlines.

It's a self-selecting sample of people willing to talk to a survey taker.

[FLEA]

Just now, pawnman said:

Ah. In that case, it likely skews much older than average. Good luck get a twenty-something to answer an unknown number, and good luck finding anyone under 30 with a landlines.

It's a self-selecting sample of people willing to talk to a survey taker.

Thats fair and a criticism of any poll. But there is only so much you can do to eliminate selection bias. No polling is perfect, just ask Hilary!

[nsplayr]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

From the study "The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones."

"1,374 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from March 4th – 6 th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points."

All good polling organizations use this model, it's an industry best-practice for a reason. It's not perfect obviously and there is both an art and a science to getting your demographics right based on who picks up the phone. Efforts are being made in the industry to layer on additional data since as was pointed out, not everyone is excited to pick up the phone and talk to a pollster calling from an unknown number.

That being said, the fact that Quinnipiac is a university has absolutely nothing to do with it. Polls can be conducted by media companies, universities, private companies, or any combination of the three and can either do a good job or not, but the best-practices are the same. Quinnipiac happens to do a pretty good job, but that's not because they are associated with a university necessarily.

The confusion for a lot of people comes in because A) there are pollsters who do not do a good job on a particular poll or cycle either due incompetence, bad data, or bad practices and B) there are also polls conducted and released specifically for influence rather than inform the public. Be wary of internal campaign polling that is released publically or organizations that do not follow industry best-practices and/or are looking to influence public opinion rather than report on the world as it actually is.

Most pollsters benefit by calling races accurately and putting out good and interesting data, but some less scrupulous or less neutral groups benefit by either giving politicians the numbers they want to see or by pushing hot-button patsian issues backed by dubious "data," and they are paid well to do so.

This from 538 is a good place to start when evaluating how good a particular pollster is, and Quinnipiac currently rates an A-.

Edited March 9, 2022 by nsplayr

[nsplayr]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

No polling is perfect, just ask Hilary!

And Romney! Both very seriously believed they would win even late into the evening on election day.

Edited March 9, 2022 by nsplayr

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

All good polling organizations use this model, it's an industry best-practice for a reason. It's not perfect obviously and there is both an art and a science to getting your demographics right based on who picks up the phone. Efforts are being made in the industry to layer on additional data since as was pointed out, not everyone is excited to pick up the phone and talk to a pollster calling from an unknown number.

That being said, the fact that Quinnipiac is a university has absolutely nothing to do with it. Polls can be conducted by media companies, universities, private companies, or any combination of the three and can either do a good job or not, but the best-practices are the same. Quinnipiac happens to do a pretty good job, but that's not because they are associated with a university necessarily.

The confusion for a lot of people comes in because A) there are pollsters who do not do a good job on a particular poll or cycle either due incompetence, bad data, or bad practices and B) there are also polls conducted and released specifically for influence rather than inform the public. Be wary of internal campaign polling that is released publically or organizations that do not follow industry best-practices and/or are looking to influence public opinion rather than report on the world as it actually is.

Most pollsters benefit by calling races accurately and putting out good and interesting data, but some less scrupulous or less neutral groups benefit by either giving politicians the numbers they want to see or by pushing hot-button patsian issues backed by dubious "data," and they are paid well to do so.

This from 538 is a good place to start when evaluating how good a particular pollster is, and Quinnipiac currently rates an A-.

Good stuff. When I talk about media polling im mainly critical of the practice of using a web polling which is obviously going to target readers who are probably geared to a political bias based on what media they are already consuming. This then gets published in an effort to influence public opinion, as you've mentioned. 

[Waingro]

 

On 3/7/2022 at 10:26 PM, Waingro said:

I feel sorry for anyone still falls for this tribal nonsense. What a ridiculous thing to buy into. I can't imagine harboring this much disdain for my fellow Americans. 

On 3/8/2022 at 7:19 AM, HeloDude said:

Really?  Progressives literally think that requiring an ID to vote is “Jim Crow 2.0”.

Go back to the first thing I said. Your response is more tribal nonsense. I've never met any of these two-dimensional people in real life.

[dream big]

12 minutes ago, Waingro said:

 

Go back to the first thing I said. Your response is more tribal nonsense. I've never met any of these two-dimensional people in real life.

Neither have I, thankfully…however many of them are sitting at the highest level’s of government to include in our military so that is concerning. 

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, Waingro said:

 

Go back to the first thing I said. Your response is more tribal nonsense. I've never met any of these two-dimensional people in real life.

I’m literally quoting the President…

https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-excoriated-twitter-insinuating-blocks-legislation-jim-crow-2-0

[brickhistory]

Special Counsel Durham questioned in front of a grand jury a Georgia Tech contract data analyst as to why DoD - specifically DARPA - was using him to find out who hacked the DNC servers during 2016 campaign.  Why was DARPA involved?

I really, really, really hope some mid-level and senior-level governments heads eventually roll over this.

The message to be apolitical as a government employee must be brutally reinforced or the misuse of government agencies/tools to harm political opponents will only continue and get worse.

Edited March 11, 2022 by brickhistory

[dream big]

11 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Special Counsel Durham questioned in front of a grand jury a Georgia Tech contract data analyst as to why DoD - specifically DARPA - was using him to find out who hacked the DNC servers during 2016 campaign.  Why was DARPA involved?

I really, really, really hope some mid-level and senior-level governments heads eventually roll over this.

The message to be apolitical as a government employee must be brutally reinforced or the misuse of government agencies/tools to harm political opponents will only continue and get worse.

Did any heads roll with Afghanistan? Hands down our most embarrassing moment since 1972 courtesy of the Biden Administration?  Nothing will come of this.

[ClearedHot]

The latest from the nitwit in chief:

"And, by the way, we can’t be — this is the United States of America.  We can’t be the country where for a mom to get her kid on the Internet to be able to do their homework has to pull into a McDonald’s parking lot.  I mean, for real, that’s what was happening. 

This law is going to put an end to all of that.  It’s going to put people in a much different position to be able to determine their own — their own judgments about when to sell their cattle, when they should — I just — just — we’re going to change things."

In case you think it is fake you can find the exact transcript here on Whitehouse.gov.

[uninformed]

CH, thanks for the link.  The man is truly delusional.  For example (from the link you provided):  "Make no mistake, inflation is largely the fault of Putin." and,  "They’re the facts.  Democrats didn’t cause this problem.  Vladimir Putin did."  It's actually insulting that he says the thing he does.  He seems to think we're a nation of idiots and we don't remember inflation was at record high levels before Putin did anything.

Hopefully, come November Biden and the Democrats will get a dose of reality. 

[arg]

CH, thanks for the link.  The man is truly delusional.  For example (from the link you provided):  "Make no mistake, inflation is largely the fault of Putin." and,  "They’re the facts.  Democrats didn’t cause this problem.  Vladimir Putin did."  It's actually insulting that he says the thing he does.  He seems to think we're a nation of idiots and we don't remember inflation was at record high levels before Putin did anything.
Hopefully, come November Biden and the Democrats will get a dose of reality. 

You might be surprised how many people believe


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[HeloDude]

I sometimes wonder if they actually believe what they’re saying.

 

[arg]

[brickhistory]

New York Times is out today with a "bombshell" report about Hunter Biden's laptop and it containing e-mails relating to his Ukraine dealings, among other things.

One wonders what's changed now and this is 'legit' news but in October, 2020, it was Russian disinformation.

As attested to in a signed letter by 50 former senior intelligence officials: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000

 

But trust the IC to not take political sides...

[Sim]

4 hours ago, brickhistory said:

New York Times is out today with a "bombshell" report about Hunter Biden's laptop and it containing e-mails relating to his Ukraine dealings, among other things

[HeloDude]

So if Zelensky is an honest leader, then why didn’t the Dems trust him in 2019? 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ukraine-president-says-no-blackmail-in-phone-call-with-trump

[HeloDude]

On 11/28/2020 at 5:37 PM, Sua Sponte said:

Oh yeah, whatever happen to Hunter Biden’s laptop? I thought that was going to put a dagger in Biden’s campaign?

When the MSM right away comes out to discredit the Hunter Laptop story as misinformation/Russian propaganda, and big tech tech sensors anything related to the story…only to 1.5 years admit that it was true, then you have to ask yourself “why”?

https://nypost.com/2022/03/17/the-times-finally-admits-hunter-bidens-laptop-is-real/

[ClearedHot]

18 hours ago, brickhistory said:

New York Times is out today with a "bombshell" report about Hunter Biden's laptop and it containing e-mails relating to his Ukraine dealings, among other things.

One wonders what's changed now and this is 'legit' news but in October, 2020, it was Russian disinformation.

As attested to in a signed letter by 50 former senior intelligence officials: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000

 

But trust the IC to not take political sides...

Sickening...further proof the big tech oligarch's have far too much control in this country.  I've never bought into the Trump stop the steal movement, but it is very clear the big Facebook and Twitter suppressed a story that turns out to be true and could have shaped the election.  Hunter Biden is a private citizen and I have a feeling the Grand Jury will ultimately fry his drug addicted ass but we need to know the truth about 10% for the big guy.

[arg]

[Sim]

......

[GrndPndr]

From The Times