The Next President is...

[FLEA]

Ahhhhh nothing like a good ol security crises to cement those approval ratings before going into an election your party is unpopular in....

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/596890-bidens-approval-rating-jumps-to-47-percent-after-state-of-the-union-address

[kaputt]

Elon Musk supports increasing oil output in wake of Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com)

So will the current admin go down this path or will they cling to their "green energy" addiction for dear life?

 

[FLEA]

52 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Elon Musk supports increasing oil output in wake of Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com)

So will the current admin go down this path or will they cling to their "green energy" addiction for dear life?

 

There seems to be a split right now between WH Dems and Congressional Dems. I think negotiating a solution to override WH though will be hard though. Dems are facing a bit of a crises now for which values they are going to stand up for. 

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, kaputt said:

Elon Musk supports increasing oil output in wake of Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com)

So will the current admin go down this path or will they cling to their "green energy" addiction for dear life?

 

The latter.  War in Ukraine actually gives them a bit of an excuse as to why gas is a lot higher than under Trump (even before Covid)…but it won’t work.  I still don’t see how the Dems keep the House.  Their chances for keeping the Senate right now are 50/50 at best.  Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

[bfargin]

11 hours ago, FLEA said:

Ahhhhh nothing like a good ol security crises to cement those approval ratings before going into an election your party is unpopular in....

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/596890-bidens-approval-rating-jumps-to-47-percent-after-state-of-the-union-address

I'm wondering what rational person listened to that feces and thought "yeah, he seems to have it all under control". I get that his supporters know what he is and accept it, but how did that dumpster fire of a speech positively sway anybody's opinion??

Edited March 5, 2022 by bfargin

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, HeloDude said:

The latter.  War in Ukraine actually gives them a bit of an excuse as to why gas is a lot higher than under Trump (even before Covid)…but it won’t work.  I still don’t see how the Dems keep the House.  Their chances for keeping the Senate right now are 50/50 at best.  Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

Voters have notably short attention spans. Local governments are removing mask mandates...I totally see that being a selling point in the elections.  "Trump and the GOP put you in masks and closed businesses. Biden and the dems have made it safe to take off the masks and go back to work..."

All nonsense, of course. But that's what I expect to see.  And a lot of voters will forget that it was democratically controlled states and cities that created the most burdensome mandates.

[arg]

[Lord Ratner]

On 3/4/2022 at 12:02 AM, FLEA said:

Holy shit people we've come full circle.....

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2022/03/03/biden-lower-inflation-plan/9341221002/

It's amazing how they literally just argue that inflationary things are actually deflationary.

 

17 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Does anyone really see things getting better here at home by the later summer/early fall?

No. I expect hyperinflation (already happening) to be reflected in the official numbers, especially as rent increases from last year start making it into the metrics. They are going to get slaughtered.

[nsplayr]

The baseline assumption in modern American politics is the incumbent party loses seats at the first midterm. All bets should be made from that baseline, e.g. a Dem loss of both chambers in 2022 should be expected even if you know nothing about anything other than the raw seat numbers in both chambers and which party holds the White House.

My personal guess as of tonight is the GOP takes the House with a 10-20 seat majority (net +20-30ish from now) seats and I could believe a senate anywhere from 46/54 GOP-led to a 52/48 Dem led, there are some interesting senate races out there this cycle.

But as we see in the news, sh*t happens and people’s memories are short, so we’ll see where we’re at by November!

Feel free to look back and laugh in a few months, although I will mention that I predicted Biden’s SCOTUS nominee correctly when the vacancy was first announced 😎 My guy did famously narrow it down quite a bit though haha…made it relatively easy. Though one could say the same of Trump, having chosen all three of his nominees from a well-publicized short list and saying specifically he wanted to replace Ginsburg with another woman (how sexist of him! /sarcasm).

Edited March 6, 2022 by nsplayr

[bfargin]

10 hours ago, nsplayr said:

The baseline assumption in modern American politics is the incumbent party loses seats at the first midterm. All bets should be made from that baseline, e.g. a Dem loss of both chambers in 2022 should be expected even if you know nothing about anything other than the raw seat numbers in both chambers and which party holds the White House.

My personal guess as of tonight is the GOP takes the House with a 10-20 seat majority (net +20-30ish from now) seats and I could believe a senate anywhere from 46/54 GOP-led to a 52/48 Dem led, there are some interesting senate races out there this cycle.

But as we see in the news, sh*t happens and people’s memories are short, so we’ll see where we’re at by November!

Feel free to look back and laugh in a few months, although I will mention that I predicted Biden’s SCOTUS nominee correctly when the vacancy was first announced 😎 My guy did famously narrow it down quite a bit though haha…made it relatively easy. Though one could say the same of Trump, having chosen all three of his nominees from a well-publicized short list and saying specifically he wanted to replace Ginsburg with another woman (how sexist of him! /sarcasm).

I'm just hoping we never have all three (house, senate, potus) controlled by the same party.  I absolutely love a slow cumbersome government that has to convince everyone that the cause du-jour is a good idea. It's not foolproof, as evidenced by the Patriot Act among others, but it usually works better than either party does alone.

[dream big]

1 hour ago, bfargin said:

I'm just hoping we never have all three (house, senate, potus) controlled by the same party.  I absolutely love a slow cumbersome government that has to convince everyone that the cause du-jour is a good idea. It's not foolproof, as evidenced by the Patriot Act among others, but it usually works better than either party does alone.

The flip side is said slow cumbersome government actually passing a budget and funding essential elements of our government such as the military. 

[bfargin]

3 hours ago, dream big said:

The flip side is said slow cumbersome government actually passing a budget and funding essential elements of our government such as the military. 

There is truth in your words of iron ... (sorry, I just watched Outlaw Josie Wales again.)

[brickhistory]

Hay-sus Krist, this 'thing' won't die...

Multiple political outlets have reported on the Clintons spooling up their "Clinton Global Initiative" machinery again.

You know, that multi-hundreds of millions of dollars in donations for access to then-Senator, later SecState, later presumed POTUS heir apparent.  When she crashed and burned in 2016, donations went down from the 10s of millions per year in, largely, foreign money - Russia/Saudi/Pakistan, etc - to the thousands.

Now, the old band is getting back together.

She's gonna try again.

[herkbum]

Hay-sus Krist, this 'thing' won't die...
Multiple political outlets have reported on the Clintons spooling up their "Clinton Global Initiative" machinery again.
You know, that multi-hundreds of millions of dollars in donations for access to then-Senator, later SecState, later presumed POTUS heir apparent.  When she crashed and burned in 2016, donations went down from the 10s of millions per year in, largely, foreign money - Russia/Saudi/Pakistan, etc - to the thousands.
Now, the old band is getting back together.
She's gonna try again.

It’s hard to kill the devil


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[kaputt]

Possible Biden Saudi Arabia trip could mean embracing oil, ignoring brutality

Still have yet to see an article about this administration looking to re-embrace domestic oil production. 

[tac airlifter]

56 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Possible Biden Saudi Arabia trip could mean embracing oil, ignoring brutality

Still have yet to see an article about this administration looking to re-embrace domestic oil production. 

Because they aren’t.  They’ve done everything possible to shit on domestic production. My brother works in the oil industry, it’s heartbreaking to see what this administration has done: appeal to domestic environmentalists by crushing domestic oil, simultaneously increasing reliance on brutal dictators.  I love the environment, but green energy isn’t ready for the volume  our nation requires.  And sending money to OPEC instead of US based production has been awful for national security.

[dream big]

3 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Because they aren’t.  They’ve done everything possible to shit on domestic production. My brother works in the oil industry, it’s heartbreaking to see what this administration has done: appeal to domestic environmentalists by crushing domestic oil, simultaneously increasing reliance on brutal dictators.  I love the environment, but green energy isn’t ready for the volume  our nation requires.  And sending money to OPEC instead of US based production has been awful for national security.

The hyenas on the green new deal squad have more influence and cojones than this current POTUS. 

[ViperMan]

2 hours ago, dream big said:

The hyenas on the green new deal squad have more influence and cojones than this current POTUS. 

I'm a pretty big naysayer of this current administration, but what they've done so far with Javelins and tough sanctions (what they've been able to do), has been commendable. Russia's economy is getting absolutely crushed, and there is still a lot more that we can do. And we should. Putin should be relegated to permanent pariah status.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M

[FLEA]

https://newsworldupdate.com/politics/more-republicans-than-democrats-would-stay-and-fight-if-what-happened-in-ukraine-occurred-in-us-poll/

 

BLUF: if the US were in the exact same situation as the Ukraine, the majority of Republicans would defend the country while the majority of Democrats flee. 

 

[Waingro]

41 minutes ago, FLEA said:

https://newsworldupdate.com/politics/more-republicans-than-democrats-would-stay-and-fight-if-what-happened-in-ukraine-occurred-in-us-poll/

 

BLUF: if the US were in the exact same situation as the Ukraine, the majority of Republicans would defend the country while the majority of Democrats flee. 

 

I feel sorry for anyone still falls for this tribal nonsense. What a ridiculous thing to buy into. I can't imagine harboring this much disdain for my fellow Americans. 

[FLEA]

21 minutes ago, Waingro said:

I feel sorry for anyone still falls for this tribal nonsense. What a ridiculous thing to buy into. I can't imagine harboring this much disdain for my fellow Americans. 

Its an observation. If you're going to dismiss it as tribal nonsense, extrapolate. Why do you think democrats would significantly poll differently? 

Of note, in the same poll, dems are more willing to support Ukrainian refugees than Republicans. This indicates a significant difference in values and perceived responsibilities in a security challenged world. I have my ideas and none of them cast anyone as the bad guy, im just curious what other people think first. 

 

Edit: Also of note, this is a university poll, not a media poll. which gives it a bit more relevance in my opinion since it would have had to meet scholastic norms for ethical human research and it would have deliberately tried to omit population biases. 

Here is a link to the study if anyone is interested in reading it: 

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03072022_ujca44.pdf

Edited March 8, 2022 by FLEA

[Waingro]

12 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Its an observation. If you're going to dismiss it as tribal nonsense, extrapolate. Why do you think democrats would significantly poll differently? 

Because people aren't two-dimensional caricatures. There are more than two different belief systems out there. Subscribing to a dialogue that can't deviate from a binary solution is asinine.

[HeloDude]

8 hours ago, Waingro said:

I feel sorry for anyone still falls for this tribal nonsense. What a ridiculous thing to buy into. I can't imagine harboring this much disdain for my fellow Americans. 

Really?  Progressives literally think that requiring an ID to vote is “Jim Crow 2.0”.

Edited March 8, 2022 by HeloDude

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

I just don't see Canada or Mexico ever driving tanks across our border, or letting China/North Korea/Russia hold military exercises on our border. Ever. One of the benefits of being a newer country, we don't have all that baggage that comes with a thousand years of empires spreading and collapsing.

[FLEA]

2 hours ago, LumberjackAxe said:

I just don't see Canada or Mexico ever driving tanks across our border, or letting China/North Korea/Russia hold military exercises on our border. Ever. One of the benefits of being a newer country, we don't have all that baggage that comes with a thousand years of empires spreading and collapsing.

Probably not in the next 1-4 decades but Mexico did have enough fascist at the time that Hitler thought he had a reasonable chance of getting them to join the Axis. I would never say never. The biggest obstacle is our terrain. We have an ocean to the east/west and a single neighbor to the north/south. Neighbors bring more baggage than history, so only having one of each is advantageous. Additionally, we are probably the only country in the world at the moment that can stage an army on a different continent but that gap will close over time.

Regardless, its just a thought experiment. As I've said, I have my ideas on some of the gap but I cant explain it all. The real clues are probably in race/gender/immigration status, how they vote, and how/why they would see their war time responsibility differently. For example, far more women in the democratic party than men, and women might be more likely to see their war time responsibility to flee with children and get them to safety. No one would fault anyone for that or say they're less committed Americans. In the full meta data it shows that women were only 40% likely to stay vs men 70%.