Clark Griswold Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Decade forecast from Stratfor, sounds plausible, world somewhat FUBAR somewhat functional. https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025 Here's the Jack Ryan part: It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia's failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s, in which Moscow's ability to support the national infrastructure declined. In this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves by forming informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray Historically, the Russians solved such problems via the secret police — the KGB and its successor, the Federal Security Services (FSB). But just as in the 1980s, the secret police will not be able to contain the centrifugal forces pulling regions away from Moscow this decade. In this case, the FSB's power is weakened by its leadership's involvement in the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB's strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of the Russian Federation will not be preventable. ... This will create the greatest crisis of the next decade. Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands. The decline of Moscow's power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed. This will be a major test for the United States. Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process. How the hell do you secure 4000+ nukes in Russia as its coming apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magellan Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 How the hell do you secure 4000+ nukes in Russia as its coming apart? Suitcases of hundred dollar bills would probably be a good place to start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clark Griswold Posted July 11, 2015 Author Share Posted July 11, 2015 Yup If we're not going to be friends then a "business" relationship is better Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcraftllc Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Yup If we're not going to be friends then a "business" relationship is better Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Worked last time. Hell, we gotta get our Titanium from somewhere anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Freshwater Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Maybe we could organize a covert op to pass their Missileers some bad/wrong test answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clark Griswold Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Maybe we could organize a covert op to pass their Missileers some bad/wrong test answers. That may or may not be a big deal over there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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