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What's wrong with the Air Force?


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2 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

If they do nothing, a dwindling number of AD and faster dwindling number of ARC members on Involuntary Mobilization orders.  

The spiral will wrap up tighter and tighter.

What do you think the endgame is here? It seems like things are on a steep downward trajectory and I think a certain number of candidates who do their homework here and elsewhere will decide not to subject themselves to it which will only accelerate the issue. I'd like to remain optimistic (naive?) that things could work themselves out in a few years. 

On a related note, it would be nice if the AF would pay out my travel voucher from 14 months ago! 

Edited by bb17
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27 minutes ago, bb17 said:

What do you think the endgame is here? It seems like things are on a steep downward trajectory and I think a certain number of candidates who do their homework here and elsewhere will decide not to subject themselves to it which will only accelerate the issue. I'd like to remain optimistic (naive?) that things could work themselves out in a few years. 

On a related note, it would be nice if the AF would pay out my travel voucher from 14 months ago! 

Don't think they have an endgame in mind, that is a plan to fundamentally change the AF.  My two cents, I think they believe this is just a normal rough patch for the AF to play thru. 

No, you're not naive to be optimistic but be realistic, this CSAF and the MAJCOM/CCs are not revolutionaries nor particularly reform minded from what I have observed.  At best they are tinkering at the edges, it will take a boss willing to fire his/her friends to get movement at the top to enable reform. 

You can want to fix an organization but unless you are willing to remove those in leadership that will filter, dilute and stymie you efforts, you probably won't change anything.

Do good work, argue for common sense, take advantage of opportunities, roll with the times and never drink the kool-aid - from the perspective of one individual.

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1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

it will take a boss willing to fire his/her friends to get movement at the top to enable reform. 

AHAHAHAHA....We can't even get them to fire terrible Group Commanders and up.

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4 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Not sure if "principled" is the right word.  If it is, I am missing your point.

If you meant pilots have an expensive skillset that has a real market value today, I'm with you.

But remind me what adorns most of the GOs' upper left side of their uniforms in the Air Force, including, especially, the ultimate leadership in the USAF?  So no, I don't think "principled" is the correct word choice.

Hey bro not trying to pick a word fight! I will remove the offending device.

 

the economy is great for pilots they have many choices and as they come up on the decision point to leave or stay they have more wiggle room. Thus, it is easier to walk with our feet and talk about the lack of integrity. Would it be the same if the economy sucked for us, I doubt it.

 

what do you think?

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12 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

It will be ugly but not in the ways we assume, some people are staying and they will most certainly be overworked.  This will be yet another opportunity for non-pilots to rise to positions of influence (Space/Cyber/Intel), and we will see a further erosion of morale and our core competencies of employing airpower as they seek to further agendas and secure tribal position and power.  I fear this will ultimately result in a non-warrior leading the USAF or a GCC. 

Plans are in motion to dramatically increase the UPT pipeline so we will likely see an Air Force with a glut of younger far less experienced aviators and in IMHO that will manifest itself in a much higher accident rate.  Also, look for increased incidents of battlefield "mistakes" and fratricide.

If there is a major conflict in the middle of this...scholars will write books for a 100 years on the death of a once great power.

"If there is a major conflict...." --> this right here is my biggest fear with all of the problems surrounding the AF.  

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9 minutes ago, dream big said:

"If there is a major conflict...." --> this right here is my biggest fear with all of the problems surrounding the AF.  

Fortunately, I think we actually have this part covered. If a meaningful shooting match broke out, so many of the experienced bros would drop Mil Leave and be chomping at the bit to kill sh!theads for the USA.  I know I would.

I'm not talking about another "Operation Deny Christmas" that our inept politicians seem to seek out, but if a real shooting match happened, commercial travel would take a crap and the bros would get shit done. For this reason, I think the steady-state "peacetime" ops of the AF are actually the more complicated challenge. 

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1 hour ago, ViperStud said:

Fortunately, I think we actually have this part covered. If a meaningful shooting match broke out, so many of the experienced bros would drop Mil Leave and be chomping at the bit to kill sh!theads for the USA.  I know I would.

I'd still go back and fly the U-2, in peacetime.  

Unfortunately, if things escalated (wartime) to the point where they needed me back even more, I have zero faith that the fucking AFPC bureaucracy could make it happen... even if the squadron was BEGGING for pilots.   Honestly, AFPC simply couldn't get through the mountains of paperwork and levels of coordination.  You'd be back in your Viper and I'd be back in the Deuce after it was all said and done.  

I think Maj Gen Poore is still the AFPC/CC.  If so, she and the Executive Director need to be thrown out personally by Gen Goldfein.  AFPC has failed, and how they do business needs to be re-thought.   

edit:  I looked and the E.D. is fairly new, so I'd give her another 9 months to prove her worth before I shitcanned her.  

Edited by HuggyU2
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8 hours ago, 1111 said:

Hey bro not trying to pick a word fight! I will remove the offending device.

 

the economy is great for pilots they have many choices and as they come up on the decision point to leave or stay they have more wiggle room. Thus, it is easier to walk with our feet and talk about the lack of integrity. Would it be the same if the economy sucked for us, I doubt it.

 

what do you think?

We're good.  I just wasn't getting "principled" nor was I offended.

I believe we are on the same page.  If Big Blue keeps the stupidity set to 11, those of options will bail.

:beer:

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the economy is great for pilots they have many choices and as they come up on the decision point to leave or stay they have more wiggle room.
 
what do you think?


I think right this second you are right. Until the airlines fix the pilot shortage with drone and remotely operated options to their problem. Then we will have a pilot job crisis just like 9/11. It's coming. And if you don't think so just check out how much research is being done and funded by who. Necessity is the mother of invention. Both airlines and the Air Force need right now.


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2 minutes ago, Guardian said:

I think right this second you are right. Until the airlines fix the pilot shortage with drone and remotely operated options to their problem. ...... It's coming. 

 

I totally disagree, I don't think RPA airline ops are anywhere feasible within the next 30 years.  We still have humans with flashlights backing airliners out of parking, driving baggage carts and pushing drink carts down the aisle. 

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I totally disagree, I don't think RPA airline ops are anywhere feasible within the next 30 years.  We still have humans with flashlights backing airliners out of parking, driving baggage carts and pushing drink carts down the aisle. 

I think the bigger near term danger would single pilot ops in the airlines, although that would still involve a significant investment in modernizing airliners. However, as technology and safety systems continue to improve, first officers will eventually go the way of the navigator/flight engineer/radio operator. The question is how long will it take to get to that point.
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1 minute ago, Guardian said:

Based on what knowledge?

Based on opinion, not knowledge.  Technically it is feasible now.  In my opinion, "should we do it" and "will we invest in it" discussions will surmount any pure technical capability discussion.  As mentioned previously, if we are moving toward more autonomy there are easier and cheaper targets I'd expect to be prosecuted before going straight to the most difficult.  What do you think?

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I agree. But I think they will be put in a difficult position. Maybe at fed ex or ups without passengers to get that going. And once that happens then the airlines will probably adopt it. And I'm not saying autonomy but the pilot in control is on the ground and in charge of 3 or 4 airplanes instead of having a bunch of crews. I just don't think 30 years is realistic but it's all subjective conjecture and my guess. Then we have another pilot crisis because we won't be needed on the scale we think we should be. And then we won't have nearly as many options or ones that pay well.


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1 minute ago, Guardian said:

I agree. But I think they will be put in a difficult position. Maybe at fed ex or ups without passengers to get that going. And once that happens then the airlines will probably adopt it. And I'm not saying autonomy but the pilot in control is on the ground and in charge of 3 or 4 airplanes instead of having a bunch of crews. I just don't think 30 years is realistic but it's all subjective conjecture and my guess.


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That would be awesome.  No crappy layovers. No droning on autopilot while listening to a Captain's sob story about his 3rd divorce. No dealing with the entitled cattle in the back.  Just show up, fly a few takeoffs and landings, and go home to your super model wife and Cadillac-a-month paycheck.

Where do I sign up?  

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I agree. But I think they will be put in a difficult position. Maybe at fed ex or ups without passengers to get that going. And once that happens then the airlines will probably adopt it. And I'm not saying autonomy but the pilot in control is on the ground and in charge of 3 or 4 airplanes instead of having a bunch of crews. I just don't think 30 years is realistic but it's all subjective conjecture and my guess. Then we have another pilot crisis because we won't be needed on the scale we think we should be. And then we won't have nearly as many options or ones that pay well.


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There is a reason why the AF calls them RPAs instead of UAVs. We couldn't even figure out how to have a pilot control multiple Predators, I don't think having a single pilot control multiple airliners will happen anytime soon. However, the profit motive is a powerful force and when it is private enterprise driving the innovation it could be developed at a much faster pace. I just hope it's after I hit 65.


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I'd still go back and fly the U-2, in peacetime.  
Unfortunately, if things escalated (wartime) to the point where they needed me back even more, I have zero faith that the ing AFPC bureaucracy could make it happen... even if the squadron was BEGGING for pilots.   Honestly, AFPC simply couldn't get through the mountains of paperwork and levels of coordination.  You'd be back in your Viper and I'd be back in the Deuce after it was all said and done.  
I think Maj Gen Poore is still the AFPC/CC.  If so, she and the Executive Director need to be thrown out personally by Gen Goldfein.  AFPC has failed, and how they do business needs to be re-thought.   
edit:  I looked and the E.D. is fairly new, so I'd give her another 9 months to prove her worth before I shitcanned her.  

Is the Deuce that insulated from the rest of the AF? Or you just like the community that it's easier to deal with the BS?

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Until we get some serious AI (not the b.s that is currently being passed off as AI) with problem solving capabilities I don't see dual cockpits going any where.  Single pilot Airlines are a non starter due to the Lufthansa/German Wings issue, and any automation that cannot deal with complicated multiple system failure / conflicting information is going to fail even with reliability rates as high as we have seen them(Allegiant aka Single Engine Airline?).  I also don't see the military going that direction to the extreme because so long as it has any kind of "remote" piece within its operation it will be hackable / jammed and rendered inop. 

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The FAA is going to allow single pilot ops?  You mean the same FAA that just recently allowed WiFi to be used forward of the cockpit door despite it's common use for how many years?  The same FAA that required the iPad to withstand a FL600 decompression?  I wish I could remember the iPad G load requirement but I don't recall the number.  I do recall thinking that the iPad surviving if we encounter such a G load would be the least of my worries.  Never say never but I'm doubtful.  Odds favor cargo, if at all.

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Guest LumberjackAxe

Wasn't there another thread discussing the whole remotely piloted airline thing? 

I think the end result was this:

- the airplane still needs life support so the drastic savings we see in AF drones wouldn't happen 

- it'll be more like "the pilot is the flight attendant" or vice versa

- any airline who keeps pilots has a great marketing point and will drive the other pilotless airlines out of business ("Come fly Delta! We actually have pilots so you won't crash and die in a fireball!")

- it's obviously gonna happen at some point in the future, but I'm going to be walking with a cane by the time it does

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9 hours ago, Guardian said:

 


I think right this second you are right. Until the airlines fix the pilot shortage with drone and remotely operated options to their problem. Then we will have a pilot job crisis just like 9/11. It's coming. And if you don't think so just check out how much research is being done and funded by who. Necessity is the mother of invention. Both airlines and the Air Force need right now.


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Not happening anytime soon.  Where is the cost savings? You aren't getting rid of the pilot, they are just no longer in the cockpit.  Single pilot, for airlines? Way too much liability, maybe for cargo.  Look at what the airlines are investing in for the next 10-20 years, none of it is remote technology. 

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