HossHarris Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 It is interesting to see what RF is doing today. And I am not impressed. Seen/Been to a Tier 1 flag lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClearedHot Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Once those pilots are gone in number - which is going to happen in the next five years or so if nothing changes - it will take at least a decade and billions of dollars to fix. Or Stop Loss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Seen/Been to a Tier 1 flag lately? No. But have visited and discussed current execution with staff (know several of them from previous life and get opprtunites to visit Nellis in my current life.) I find it interesting to look at who the assumed training audience is and prioritized and how each RF is executed. I think some things have improved and some things have been hijacked. These are items worth of disucssion over several beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I got my 2012 AF climate survey link today. I'm pretty sure I marked "disagree" or "strongly disagree" for most of the questions like "I think HAF is looking out for me." I have a feeling I'm not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Or Stop Loss... I give it a 3 in 5 chance we will have a fighter pilot stop loss in the next decade. No shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy pilgrim Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I give it a 3 in 5 chance we will have a fighter pilot stop loss in the next decade. No shit. I would keep stuff like this away from the RPA guys. No amount of resilancy CBTs would be able to undo the damage done by that. This is indepenant RAND study is a good read - http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG855.html It forewarned of the lack of cockpits problem as well as the inability to absorb new wingmen and advocated for a separate training pipeling for UAV operators. From that study: "Two other, extraordinary, methods have been used to influence TARS: stop-loss orders and changing the active-duty service commitment. Following the attacks of 9/11, the Air Force issued a stop-loss order, which prevented fighter pilots from separating from the Air Force for two years.5 Becoming a fighter pilot entails a commitment to a specific length of active duty. This commitment can be changed and has been, from 6 to 8 years in the mid-1990s and from 8 to 10 years in 2002 and 2003. Neither of these extraordinary measures can be taken very often." It it BEYOND RIDICULOUS that the band-aid for negligent mismanagement is, oh - just don't let them leave. Problem solved. To quote a buddy of mine - every short term problem can be fixed by creating a larger long-term one. You think the young guys don't see this BS? There's a recent Academy grad in my unit that said no way to UPT because of this garbage... Ten years is a big chunk of your life and if there's no faith that you will be looked out for it becomes an unacceptable gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 It it BEYOND RIDICULOUS HISTORICALLY STANDARD USAF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT that the band-aid for negligent mismanagement is, oh - just don't let them leave. FIFY, dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuggyU2 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I give it a 3 in 5 chance we will have a fighter pilot stop loss in the next decade. No shit. Hey, don't go out on a limb, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I am just so glad that we sent so many dudes straight from T-38s into "overmanned" heavies over the past 3 years. Not to mention pulling fully qualified dudes straight out of fighter cockpits to send them to Creech. A retarded monkey could fix the Air Force, unfortunately we are out of retarded monkeys and we are left with these idiots at the controls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap-10 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I am just so glad that we sent so many dudes straight from T-38s into "overmanned" heavies over the past 3 years. Not to mention pulling fully qualified dudes straight out of fighter cockpits to send them to Creech. A retarded monkey could fix the Air Force, unfortunately we are out of retarded monkeys and we are left with these idiots at the controls. Cheers, Cap-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F16Deuce Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Cheers, Cap-10 http://bit.ly/JQbqxu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmacwc Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I give it a 3 in 5 chance we will have a fighter pilot stop loss in the next decade. No shit. You are probably 3-6 (Harrumph) years too short on that guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuggyU2 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 A retarded monkey could fix the Air Force, unfortunately we are out of retarded monkeys and we are left with these idiots at the controls. Best quote I've heard in weeks! Hope you don't mind if I steal it for some laughs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 By all means! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 So, what do you guys actually think of the new "Dear Boss" letter? I hadn't heard about this letter at all, outside of seeing the link in this thread. It's not making it's way around the bro email network in my sliver of the AF world -- is it causing discussions in your squadrons? Certainly the 2009 letter DID spread like wildfire through the email chains, and I even remember the 1997 letter getting pretty good distribution, even being posted in the O'Club bar bathroom at Nellis back in the day, and being printed as front-page news in AF Times. So, what's up with this one? Personally, I think this 2012 Dear Boss is a bit different than the previous three letters in an important way: this one's primary complaint is with the Senior Leadership Management in the USAF, and focusing on the post-Buzz Mosely-firing kotowing the USAF has done to the SECDEF, the other Service Chiefs, and the other Secretaries over our role in the current US national defense strategy. The previous letters focused on the squadron- and wing-level problems from the Captain's point of view; how changes and decay to the way the USAF was operating had compromised the ability to conduct combat airpower at mostly the tactical level. There was the occasional swipe at the Strategic level, but it was never the main focus of the reason the authors were deciding to get out of the USAF. I also find the frequency of these letters of interest; 1974, 1997, 2009, and now 2012. Is it that Gen X officers are just more pussified, needing to write a new, different letter only three years after the previous one because it didn't have enough of an impact? Or is it indicating a real significant sea-change in the last 3 years that warrants its own separate series of complaints? The real funny thing is, we haven't yet seen the fighter/pilot/officer exodus promised by the frustrations in the 2009 letter. Sure, we know it prompted our next CSAF to take a look at the bro-level problems, but there sure hasn't yet been enough of a giant-sucking-sound (sts) of officers walking out the door to put a punctuation mark on either the 2009 or 2012 letters. Real crises are the only thing that the senior level is going to respond to....certainly a letter in Small Wars Journal, that doesn't seem to be making waves at the bro level that I've seen, isn't going to have the least bit of impact on decisions and attitudes at HAF. It's all just crying wolf if there's no action to back up the words, and so far, I haven't seen any tangible reason why the senior level would be inspired to change course based on the "threat" of departure leveled in the last two letters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClearedHot Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Hacker, I think this letter is different from past letters in that it is more of a direct assault on General Schwartz, the others were on the culture of the force, this is directly in the face of the boss. Each one of those letters came a very interesting point in our history and the dynamics were slightly different each time. It is interesting that the letter took such a shot at Schwartz just as he is about to exit stage right. It is also interesting that the author picked SMJ to publish his/her concerns, I still haven't figured that out. Personally I think we are at a major inflection point. The declining budget puts us as serious risk of becoming a hollow force again (sequestration will assure that), we are worn out from 10 years of constant combat, AND the economy is bad. You are exactly correct that we have not yet seen the mass exodus that was promised, but the economy has certainly kept that somewhat in check, as did the age 65 retirement and the increased UPT commitment. I am not a rocket surgeon but if the economy does improve I think you will see a major run for the door. My friends in big business share all sorts of stories about the major corporations holding back on investment and hiring, but if they get a sign things are truly on the mend there will be a lot of higher quality jobs available for military officers. Now to get in the weeds but there is well over $3Trillion sitting on the sidelines just waiting to jump into the market and I think it could be the tipping point. We are so far behind in AVIATOR production, it will literally take a decade to catch up unless stop loss or other drastic measures are used. Welsh himself could hold the key, it will be interesting to see how he plays his cards. He is the one leader who through force of passion and leadership might sway the tide, but will he come out swinging or wait for the tide to go out. Regardless, I think we are in for a very rough ride the next few years and the increased frequency of the Dear Boss letters highlights the concern growing in the force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenny Powers Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) I am not a rocket surgeon Rocket surgeon? Edited May 18, 2012 by Kenny Powers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butters Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Rocket surgeon? Yes, Rocket Surgeon, a difficult profession similar to Brain Science. You need to watch more TV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flare Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 The real funny thing is, we haven't yet seen the fighter/pilot/officer exodus promised by the frustrations in the 2009 letter. Sure, we know it prompted our next CSAF to take a look at the bro-level problems, but there sure hasn't yet been enough of a giant-sucking-sound (sts) of officers walking out the door to put a punctuation mark on either the 2009 or 2012 letters. When's the actual date when the first 10-year-commitment guys start getting the chance to punch? I thought we were just now arriving there. Or has that been for a few months now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butters Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 When's the actual date when the first 10-year-commitment guys start getting the chance to punch? I thought we were just now arriving there. Or has that been for a few months now? For a while now. From the guys I know it has been about 50/50 for take bonus or GTFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jughead Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Rocket surgeon? Forget it, he's rolling.... EDIT: Corrected the quote; I'd always thought it was "Leave him alone, he's on a roll...." Edited May 18, 2012 by Jughead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Rocket surgeon? KIO for loss of SA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 December 2012 is the first time we are going to start seeing age 65 retirements from the airlines as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) December 2012 is the first time we are going to start seeing... http://www.2012supplies.com/countdown3.swf On a little more serious note... Nothing you guys do will have an impact on what the USAF does or doesn't do. You need to make personal decisions based on what is best for your families. You guys need to turn the map around to get the perspective on the big picture. The number of USAF pilots available to the airlines is a trickle from their perspective, even if everyone who can get out does get out. The airlines can find pilots anywhere. They can train pilots themselves in a fraction of the time it takes to make a 10 year IP in the USAF. The USAF is under serious threat of capability loss as CH mentioned. Planes are old and people aren't getting the kind of training and experience they need. We have become accustomed to low intensity conflict. The global economy depends on the strength of the US military to keep the trade lanes open. No one else can do this and everyone else depends on us for this, friend and foe alike. The entire planet is in trouble if the US loses that ability. That's what is really at stake. Edited May 18, 2012 by Rainman A-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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