[Artificial Intelligence: Discussion and demonstrations]

Neither. Intelligence requires consciousness. It's nonsensical to call an abacus conscious.

[Artificial Intelligence: Discussion and demonstrations]

@Danger41 is spot on. There is a lot of hype and misunderstanding about what AI is and about what it can do. The discussion about artificial general intelligence (AGI) is more theoretical. IMO AGI is not possible, because no matter how sophisticated the output seems, a computer is still just a really really fast abacus. In order to admit a computer into the realm of the "intelligent" you simultaneously need to admit an abacus into the same category. I don't think many people would be comfortable with that leap.

Really the whole discipline suffers from having ever been associated with the word "intelligence" in the first place as it begets consciousness, which a computer can never be.

What AI is going to do is make a lot of previously seemingly intractable problems solvable, but all it really is at rock bottom is advanced math (statistics) being applied to lots of high-dimensional data. Computers are good at solving things like that. People not so much. Once you understand that, the magic disappears.

[I didn’t make Major rank what next]

I know plenty of guys in the guard who were passed over (not sure about twice, or if there are implications there) and have gone on to become Lt Cols in the guard. It ain't necessarily over, and this could wind up working in your favor. I'm not saying don't prep for a civilian career, but if you want a future in the military, all doors are not necessarily closed to you.

[World War III Updates]

Well said. It's a sad thing, but our modern concept of urban warfare and being able to solve these problems without massive human casualties is a pipe dream - and honestly, Hamas' strategy takes direct advantage of the fact that it's a pipe dream.

Someone else said it best, which was that Hamas gave Israel two bad choices. Israel is making the less bad choice. People who honestly think there's a good way out of this are deluding themselves. The entire population of Gaza is will likely need to be displaced in order to solve this conflict. That's a sad thing to confront, but it is what it is, and it's not Israel's fault.

[The First Amendment, Freedom of the press.]

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Is what new?

The episode of that podcast. I guess I can just check myself.

[Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP]

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Inflation in particular punishes people who stupidly overspend and richly rewards those who save.

The truth is the exact opposite of this. I actually can't tell if you're serious, or seriously trolling. But inflation crushes those who save, and richly rewards those who spend every cent.

Think about it this way - inflation makes your money worthless. Does it make sense to hold on to something whose value is decreasing?

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

What's the price of braided belts like these days?

.No idea. However, the price of braided belt futures is way down from its previous highs in the late 90s and early 2000s.

[Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP]

5 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I mean if inflation is around 3.5% YOY and my investments are up 26% over that same time, my purchasing power increased about 22.5%, which is incredibly good! I will take years like the last 12 months economically every day and twice on Sunday.

The “one weird trick” of investing is DCA into a broad index of equities, and literally do nothing else.

Yes, the hill we're climbing right now isn't as steep as it recently was.

Cumulative inflation since 2019 (or March 2020) has been approximately 21-22%. This is an extreme historical anomaly. That's 5%+ per year, and it doesn't include certain sectors like housing. Which has undergone even more extreme inflation. The worst part is that we're not addressing the root cause - which is an out of control spending habit.

Furthermore, even though the end product is the same, when you have higher inflation earlier in an inflationary period, the later inflation, even if it is lower, has a worse effect because the intermediate products are greater for a longer period of time. Recent years' inflation was over 9%. That's going to have a downstream affect.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1%2C000.00&year1=202003&year2=202403

[The new airline thread]

4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Democratic Admin argues one thing, companies argue another, decided in DOJ’s favor by a Republican judge. Doesn’t seem particular partisan when the Dem admin and GOP judge both agree with the same argument. That was my point on the politics.

That being said, I’m neutral on the actual case…do you have an opinion on this or other mergers that’s worth sharing?

It's fine for one guy to have decided in the government's favor. I don't lament that part of our system. And one rando deciding in the government's favor doesn't make it equal parts R and D responsibility. My problem is with the administrative philosophy that leads to such decisions being made in the first place.

Personally, I don't know how the ULCCs have been able to operate for so many years. Honestly, if a business wants to sell itself to another business, I don't see how it's the government's business to stop it. This case seems similar to me as the government saying to an individual they can't sell their home to buyer X at price $Y even though they feel they can't afford the mortgage anymore. The government comes in and says no, you can't sell to party X for $Y...two months later, the business is going under (as predicted by said business), and lo and behold, it seems like the business will have to sell to multiple parties for less than $Y. I know you don't think that would be fair, and I don't see how that's a proper function for our government to play. The business isn't viable to begin with, so the legal reasoning the R judge used was bunk in the first place. And furthermore, you holding one random judge's viewpoint as an equal counter-weight to the entire executive branch's decision to pursue this case is a comically lopsided what-about-ish view of how the government works.

That was my argument. Let's not wander too far. What about that argument do you find lacking? And if it's nothing, do you think the administration should face liability for damaging the financial prospects of the owners of that business? IMO the American public is not entitled to cheap airfare. I don't see how it's any of the government's business to regulate a non-necessity.

[The new airline thread]

7 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Yep, that why I mentioned that the Biden DOJ argued the case! Good noticing though. I guess their argument was more persuasive to a very experienced and likely a decently conservative judge than the argument made by the companies.

What were the best arguments for and against allowing the merger? At what point is the industry too consolidated? Would you be ok with, say, Delta and United merging today? How did the Delta & NW merger work out? How about American and U.S. Air? And for whom? Shareholders, managers, workers, and customers are all different constituencies.

How about McDonnell-Douglas and Boeing merging, how well did that work out?

I’m asking genuine questions, other than that last one. Like I said, I’m not an expert and have no dog in the fight of the actual JetBlue/Spirit merger, other than bad experiences flying with both of them. Interested in the thoughts of others here on the pros/cons of both historical airline mergers and possible future defense & aviation consolidation in general.

I did notice. I didn't understand the "but Republicans" refrain. Anyway.

[The new airline thread]

40 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Yea that dastardly Ronald Reagan really played the long game on this one! The judge in that case was appointed by Reagan in 1985. I get that the Biden DOJ was arguing against the merger, but it was not them that decided the case. 
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_G._Young

FWIW I’m not a M&A expert nor an airline business expert, so I don’t really have a dog in the fight on if the merger was a good idea or not.

My hot take is that as a customer you shouldn’t fly either JetBlue nor Spirit anyways! Pay for a big boy airline ticket and you & your bags have a much better chance of arriving at your destination fairly close to your intended arrival time.

Ok a Reagan judge decided the case. You do understand that it was Biden's administration that brought the case right?

You understand one of the most basic features of our government and the separation of powers is that the judicial branch can't charge people? That they can't bring cases? That they can't actually direct the very power they wield? 

[Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP]

8 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Another month another higher than expected inflation report...All that free money...As Biden attempts to buy younger votes with student loan forgiveness, inflation goes up.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% over the previous month and 3.5% over the prior year in March, an acceleration from February's 3.2% annual gain. 

Anyway, bonds are way up, the 10-year Treasury yield gained as much as 14 basis points on Wednesday morning, touching above 4.5% for the first time in 2024.

Sounds like it's time to cut to me!

22 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Most of my portfolio is up ~26% in the last 12 months so life is good there. No trading, no crypto, no art/wine/startups/etc. just DCA into index and move on living life. Literally the easiest path to comfortable wealth available given enough time and some modest inputs, especially if made early on in your life.

Bruh, a pair of jeans at the BX now costs $50+. For Levis. So I'm glad you have 26% more dollars in your account, but will it buy 26% more? A "nice" shirt at the NEX costs $99 - for a Lucky flannel. $99. At the NEX.

Here, read about this phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

[Today in hypocrisy...]

3 hours ago, Negatory said:

Doubt. Here i'll respond to this appeal to emotion right here! I hope this atones for "our" sins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_balance

Congressman Hank Johnson on Guam tipping over - how is this person in charge

Interestingly, the most prominent "false balance" I can point to in modern times is the frame that ALL legacy media uses to discuss current politics. Donald Trump basically got half the vote, yet the presentation of his views as "extreme" belie that most fundamental truth. Casting his views as "extreme" is extreme false balance. Our media DOES NOT, and has not, seriously reckoned with the fact that HALF of all Americans are not on board with the crazy that is the current democratic establishment.

I'm glad you're able to call out a few less-prominent democrats who say obviously dumb things. Next step: acknowledge that many, central democrat policies are having detrimental effects on our society WITHOUT a "but Trump is worse" chaser.

[The First Amendment, Freedom of the press.]

5 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

The Bari Weiss podcast interviewing him is more interesting than the article. But to anyone who's been following this for the last few years it's just going to be more of the same. Still, it is interesting to hear "from the horse's mouth."

Is that new?

[Today in hypocrisy...]

The difference on the board between R's and D's is that the R's are willing to call out and name their retards. The D's defend their retards and/or don't recognize that they're retarted. That's the difference on this board. It plays out on a larger scale as well.

[The new airline thread]

8 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Here we go...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/spirit-airlines-will-defer-airbus-orders-furlough-260-pilots.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Message
 

Isn't it great that the judge prevented Jet Blue's purchase of Spirit, and allowed Spirit to continue their ultra low fare model?

 

7 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

We can’t have two airlines combining and “reducing competition” and “raising prices.” Instead we’ll have the government artificially reduce all commercial flights into the northeast for the summer and then block a useful merger that puts one out of business.

Spirit and JB should be allowed to sue the shit out of the Biden regime.

[Today in hypocrisy...]

7 hours ago, Pooter said:

I think you're misunderstanding the scope of the fraud. 
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/tto_release_properties_addendum_-_final.pdf

Here's a great 8 page list of fraudulent activity across a wide range of properties including everything from commercial, residential penthouses, estates, and rent controlled apartments. This is not some zoning snafu on a single commercial development project. 

In a few instances he had properties professionally appraised, then lied about the appraisal value, but still cited the appraiser.

In other instances trump org lied about the value of future development projects fully knowing that environmental and zoning regulations would prevent them from completing anything close to full development. This would be like me saying my house is worth 10 million because I'm going to 'develop' an amusement park on my property.. oh wait I live in a residential neighborhood and absolutely cannot do that. 

This litany of overvaluations fed into the acquisition of favorable loans by drastically inflating the reported 'net worth' of the trump org. While simultaneously, they used lower appraisal figures internally that they knew to be more accurate for tax and insurance purposes. 

It's fraud. On a massive, hilarious scale. Try doing even 1/10th of 1% of what the trump org did and you'd be absolutely f**ked by auditors. 

All of this can be and is likely true. It's also true that a second Trump term will be far less damaging to the future of this country than another Biden term will be. So it doesn't matter - to the people voting for him, and to many on this board. You beating the drum about Trump being a real-estate fraudster is sort of nonsensical and childish. Why are you doing it? Do you think people who are voting for him GAF? People are choosing between the lesser of two evils as they see them. The hour is way past the point where caring even one iota about lying on a tax form is going to move the needle for most people in this election cycle. This complaint seems has an air to me similar to that of running to the teacher to tattle on your fellow classmates in 1st grade. Ms. Krabapple, he stole my lunch money!!

[Retirement / Separation Considerations]

31 minutes ago, di1630 said:

I don’t think it plays in. Once you hit 20, each day you work adds to your TIS.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

So if I was to retire with 20 years active and 8 months reserve, would my retirement be 20+8 months or just 20 years?

[The Next President is...]

41 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Even more shocking when you examine SCOTUS Justice Jackson's questions today in oral arguments when she said out loud the position of our liberal friends - "My biggest concern is that your view has the First Amendment hamstringing the federal government in significant ways in the most important time periods..."  Why yes it has you Fing TWAT Waffle!  That was the freaking purpose of the 1st amendment. 

Her presence on the court is a tragedy and disgrace. It's shameful and embarrassing reading her dissents on Affirmative Action (SFA v Harvard) and the Dobbs rulings. Not because she's wrong or I disagree with her (and I do), but because in both cases, she makes no attempt to proffer any legal reasoning whatsoever, making an absolute mockery of her office. That said, she is fulfilling her actual purpose on the court.

Twat status confirmed.

[Post retirement part-time military job]

Question for the crowd.

Does anyone know of opportunities that will allow you to collect your retirement, but also retain the ability to go on orders for short periods of time?

Examples could look like:

1. Part-time technician that could do things like sit alert from time to time.
2. White jet instructor (DSG/ART) that can turn a few sorties a month at a UPT base.
3. A "points" only gig like USAFA liaison officer - not sure if something like that would even qualify for USERRA.

Why? To be able to collect basically the full retirement, keep flying military jets, and also retain full USERRA control over one's airline schedule when necessary.

Just looking to the crowd to see if there's stuff out there I'm unaware of as I approach my date.

[Retirement / Separation Considerations]

Does anybody know how "reserve" points count towards your retirement if you trip an AD retirement?

Here's the situation, I will be tripping 20 years TAFMS, but will have 6-9 months of reserve time (drills, AFTPs, membership points, etc.). I know I'll qualify for the immediate pay check, but how does that added time - which doesn't "count" toward the 20 - play in? If at all?

[Niger: USA out, Russia in.]

On 3/17/2024 at 8:25 AM, tac airlifter said:

NS, yes we were a great force for international good in the 40s & 50s and even beyond (sporadically).  But something is obviously deeply wrong in our foreign policy now.  

It's run and designed by lawyers. That's why.

Currently skimming a book titled "Bodyguard of lies" about the deception program during WWII to conceal the allies true plans for invading Europe. Book touches on how many people within the German war machine were intent on a coup and looked to gain allied assurances that they'd be treated favorably after the war. In the end, the US merely used them to validate and provide cover for the intelligence provided by ULTRA. The US resolved that the "outcome of the war would be determined by force of arms," not negotiation.

Last time we "won" a war is when we decided that we weren't going to negotiate the outcome with the people who started it. Seems to have worked well for us. Doesn't seem like a strategy developed by someone who's primary field was studying laws.

[The new airline thread]

21 hours ago, Biff_T said:

Teeth? 

Grabbed the wrong stick?

[Music]

On 3/5/2024 at 11:14 AM, Biff_T said:

@wikz

The first 4 Metallica albums are all awesome.

But this is my favorite by them:

For those with time to kill, this is a banger. Wish I could have seen them at this level.

 

[World War III Updates]

4 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Our idiot generals have learned nothing & continue to fail the nation but see themselves promoted.

You think the generals are in charge? Hmm.

[WTF? (**NSFW**)]

8 hours ago, gearhog said:

The people who are least equipped (and being raised) to deal with modern life are self-sterilizing and effectively ending their genetic lineage.  And... they're happy to do it.  And... likely willing to become angry/violent if not allowed. Who are we to deny their pursuit of happiness? Why not let it play out?

This line of reasoning / justification is retarded.

Society imposes innumerable restrictions to prevent individuals from hurting themselves, and beyond that, there are numerous other safety nets to prevent people from damaging themselves in permanent ways due to mental issues because we have decided that human life has innate value...but I suppose you're comfortable with all the service-related suicides that occur each and every day?

This decision entails certain consequences, among them, that you don't allow mentally damaged (healing) people to destroy themselves. Many (most) people who suffer from this ailment return to normal if given the time, space, and opportunity. That's why.