I had a blast in my 11 years of AD, but I had a lot of good timing and luck with assignments and commanders. The guard has been phenomenal and much better than AD, even considering my admittedly good run in the AD. There is so much less BS in the guard, you know what you’re flying (vs. hoping it works out and you don’t have poor luck on assignment night), and it’s probably in a location you enjoy living.
My opinion is go guard until your age puts you at a disadvantage (late 20s), then go AD.
1) You’re correct, it’s going to be harder to do non-standard things in the ARC, but a common misconception is you’re “stuck” for a full career at one squadron doing the same thing. There are absolutely opportunities to go do test, live in Europe, go back to UPT, change airframes/units, do a staff job, go to Weapons School, teach at Weapons School, etc. There’s a reserve B-2 squadron and I think there’s at least one or two U-2 reservist (someone correct me if I’m wrong on that). Point is a hell of a lot more “change it up” opportunity in the ARC than people think.
2) That’s not the mold, just some people. Tons of dudes fly their ass off in the guard and don’t work for an airline. At least in the fighter world, you will be expected to give 5-7 days a month as a part timer. Most guys live local, so I’ve seen many part timers flying 10+ sorties a month. I can’t speak for other communities, but we are very far from the “one weekend a month” side of the guard. There’s also plenty of opportunity to stay full time if you don’t want another civ job - you can’t plan on it of course, but I’ve never seen a guy who wanted to be full time not be kept full time through one of many avenues.