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Promotion and PRF Information

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7 hours ago, HarleyQuinn said:

If the promotion rate is 90% for the 05 year group, I wouldn't sweat it. Your situation could be common throughout many wings. What if AFPC already knows there might not be enough DPs for the 05 year group? A 90% promotion rate just doesn't seem reasonable for a year group. Unless big blue goes screw it, promote everyone without any negative indicators, which could potentially be everyone. 

It's a big "what-if?".  I've not heard the 90% from anywhere else.  I had a meeting with my WG/CV that was only tangentially related (more about where my next job will be), and he hadn't heard the 90% rumor.  Neither had the guys running the AFPC webinar yesterday afternoon.  
What I do know is that AFGSC has 50 officers going to the MLR.

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8 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

 


With no outright DP, and if the MLR doesn’t net you a DP...the push line “If I had a DP...” is key.

 

Absolutely.  This happened to my buddy on the last O-5 board.  Only 2 eligibles  and he came away with a P at the MLR.  Senior Rater wrote push line "If I had a DP...it would be his" and he got promoted. 

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On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 5:59 AM, Jetpilot said:

I was referring to dudes who were 1 BTZ.  I wanted to clarify if the above statement referencing the colonel applied to IPZ folks or BTZ.  

IPZ.  It's still difficult to pull a DP from the school MLR BTZ from what I've gathered.  My point from the post was that if you're in student status for your IPZ look and you get a P or DP, your chances at getting promoted are nearly 100....so it's not that big of deal of you come away from the school MLR with a P.  

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8 hours ago, HarleyQuinn said:

If the promotion rate is 90% for the 05 year group, I wouldn't sweat it. Your situation could be common throughout many wings. What if AFPC already knows there might not be enough DPs for the 05 year group? A 90% promotion rate just doesn't seem reasonable for a year group. Unless big blue goes screw it, promote everyone without any negative indicators, which could potentially be everyone. 

High promotion rate can be deceptive...My YG was promoted at about 75% overall.  For DP it was nearly 100% but Ps only promoted at about 50% rate.  

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Has anyone here gone through a Special Selection Promotion Board for missing documentation etc.?  It was discussed on the AFPC webinar yesterday.  Also, a couple of people asked questions about processes out of their control holding up OPRs/DECs, which seems likely those folks should meet a Special Selection board.   

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1 hour ago, Jetpilot said:

Has anyone here gone through a Special Selection Promotion Board for missing documentation etc.?  It was discussed on the AFPC webinar yesterday.  Also, a couple of people asked questions about processes out of their control holding up OPRs/DECs, which seems likely those folks should meet a Special Selection board.   

 

I have not gone through a special selection board but I did spend a stint as the assignments officer for my career field (not on the porch).

 

Here's what I can tell you from my memory... If you are missing items, last I heard, the default answer is to allow the member to meet the supplemental board.

What does the supplemental board look like? They essentially recreate the board that you met. Meaning, the records of folks that need to meet the supplemental board are intermingled with a controlled sample from the original board. This sample represents the cut-off that occurred at that board. If your record can beat the records that made it across the finish line...then you will be promoted. If not, then you do not promote.

A word of advice. I had a member's put a crap-ton of hope into "Well my joint time was incorrect" on my record. But in the end, it didn't move the needle. Don't get me wrong, every inch counts (Al Pachino--Any Given Sunday)... but be mindful that you aren't creating false hope.

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12 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

Blows my mind that some of y’all care this much about such a broken process of paper work queep

 

god bless you

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1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

Blows my mind that some of y’all care this much about such a broken process of paper work queep

 

god bless you

I'd love to not care, but I'm actually looking to get promoted.  Turns out, airlines don't use navigators anymore.

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4 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Blows my mind that some of y’all care this much about such a broken process of paper work queep

 

god bless you

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I'm just happy that I joined the AF to be at the controls of a multi-million dollar manned aerial machine with the goal of helping people. 

Edited by norskman
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The guys that come to work for 4 hours a day and are pretty useless get paid the same as those who spend 10 hours a day at work embracing the queep monster.  If you are between the 5 year and 18 year mark, have wings, a pulse and don't stab someone, you will make it to 20 years in the current air force.

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4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I'd love to not care, but I'm actually looking to get promoted.  Turns out, airlines don't use navigators anymore.

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

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1 hour ago, FUSEPLUG said:

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

I've seen Reserve guys get O-5 without ACSC. Not sure how Guard would work, but I've always gotten the impression they give less Forks.

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The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation.

Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress...

Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

 

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16 hours ago, Swizzle said:

The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation.

Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress...

Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

 

It's possible there will be a smaller pool, but in my neck of the woods at least, there are far more LtCols leaving than O-4s getting continuation.

Also, watching the promotion webinar, AFPC said there's a hard cap of 10% on BPZ.  They don't have to use all 10% on BPZ folks, but if they want to promote 1000 people (using your numbers), no more than 100 can be BPZ.

I'm trying not to stress too much about it... It's pretty much out of my hands at this point.  Either I get promoted, or I get continued... And with the bonus, I'll be paid like an O-5 even if I get passed over.

Edited by pawnman

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3 hours ago, pawnman said:

I'm trying not to stress too much about it... It's pretty much out of my hands at this point.  Either I get promoted, or I get continued... And with the bonus, I'll be paid like an O-5 even if I get passed over.

It's going to be interesting to see how this works in my AFSC since the first round of bonus takers comes retainability in a couple of years. 

I've got young Capts coming to me worrying about this stuff...when what pawnman is saying is accurate.  None of this is in your hands, timing and luck cover a lot of these issues.  Bad bosses, poor writers, stuck in a shitty command...God Speed.

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19 hours ago, snoopyeast said:

The guys that come to work for 4 hours a day and are pretty useless get paid the same as those who spend 10 hours a day at work embracing the queep monster.  If you are between the 5 year and 18 year mark, have wings, a pulse and don't stab someone, you will make it to 20 years in the current air force.

Shack

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5 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

It's going to be interesting to see how this works in my AFSC since the first round of bonus takers comes retainability in a couple of years. 

I've got young Capts coming to me worrying about this stuff...when what pawnman is saying is accurate.  None of this is in your hands, timing and luck cover a lot of these issues.  Bad bosses, poor writers, stuck in a shitty command...God Speed.

The young captains are the ones that should be paying attention.  All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago.  Hell, it was only in the past two years I learned that pairing the push line with your boss' gameplan is a recipe for disaster (i.e., the OPR says "perfect for chief of OGV" or "stellar choice for chief of safety" instead of a DO or SQ/CC push).

Those young captains need that input now, before those push lines are finalized.

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The young captains are the ones that should be paying attention.  All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago.  Hell, it was only in the past two years I learned that pairing the push line with your boss' gameplan is a recipe for disaster (i.e., the OPR says "perfect for chief of OGV" or "stellar choice for chief of safety" instead of a DO or SQ/CC push).
Those young captains need that input now, before those push lines are finalized.

Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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15 minutes ago, slackline said:


Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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Potentially, but definitely by their Major's board.  "IDE, HAF, then SQ/CC!"

But they do need to watch for push lines that don't go up the chain.  A current flight commander shouldn't get a push to another flight commander or shop chief job, even if that is where they are going.  They should have ADO, staff, school, and depending on year group, SQ/DO or SQ/CC.

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Potentially, but definitely by their Major's board.  "IDE, HAF, then SQ/CC!"
But they do need to watch for push lines that don't go up the chain.  A current flight commander shouldn't get a push to another flight commander or shop chief job, even if that is where they are going.  They should have ADO, staff, school, and depending on year group, SQ/DO or SQ/CC.

That’s understandable, but it’s odd to be pushing a young-ish Capt for DO or SQ/CC. People are speeding, and it usually has snowball effects. Before you know it, master’s degrees will be required even earlier if that crap happens.


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1 minute ago, slackline said:


That’s understandable, but it’s odd to be pushing a young-ish Capt for DO or SQ/CC. People are speeding, and it usually has snowball effects. Before you know it, master’s degrees will be required even earlier if that crap happens.


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I get what you're saying, but just know this is what the MSG officers are doing, and it's why their promotion rates are the same or higher, even with CSAF telling Congress about his pilot manning crisis.

Edited by pawnman

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1 hour ago, slackline said:


Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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No he's correct. That's what all mine said. Here's correct about it, however our career-field is having a seizure about what we're going to value.

I almost got sent to what a Sq CC considered a DO equivalent job... Except for the duty title. Wing and Sq would have "understood" but that's it, so I fought it. I would have been labeled poorly at DT since last opr said DO selection spot-on.  Wing CC got appraised if situation and called shenanigans.

I meant to say the young Capts are worrying about if the next job/move puts them in some HPO path or awesome wing job for a wing strat. Let about "bloom where planted." Those things can be influenced, but are beyond individual control.

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4 hours ago, pawnman said:

All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago. 

You can't have an OPR for a Captain say "future Sq/CC."  An OPR for a Captain can say "IDE in-res a must" or "perfect for HAF staff" because a Major can do those jobs.  Majors (pilots) can't be an ops squadron CC.  Since all ops Sq/CCs are Lt Cols you can't start making that OPR push till the ratee is a Major.

Authorized push statements must only be for jobs the ratee can serve in a the next higher grade at most.

My guess is that MSG Captains can get that push because MSG Majors must have Sq/CC billets somewhere.

Edited by Homestar
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