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Promotion and PRF Information

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So looking at the data for CY 2017A LAF Major compared to 2016 for pilots specifically (since we have a pilot crisis don't ya know!)...

Summary

2017: 93.1% selection IPZ, 21.8% APZ

2016: 94.4% selection, 10.6% APZ

Details

PDE complete and DP = 100% both years

PDE complete and P 2017: 76% selection IPZ (182/239), 10% APZ (8/84)

PDE complete and P 2016: 83% selection IPZ (199/241), 20% APZ (17/87)

BL: Pilots in the rank of Captain were less competitive for promotion to Major this board than last board

For all other categories (CSO, ABM, Non-Rated Ops, & Mission Support) across the board all categories were more promotable in 2017 than in 2016 save for a 1-man-less erosion for APZ CSOs.

Super Double BL: the AF in as clear of terms as possible is demonstrating to pilots that they are not any more specifically wanted/needed at the rank of Major now during this "crisis" even compared to last year and 2015. Take action appropriately when considering outside opportunities.

Edit to add: to not sound too alarmist, the movements were relatively small. 24 pilots passed over who would have been promoted at last year's rate. And 19 of them can possibly be explained away by a 2% higher DP allocation rate, meaning DP is more important than ever in order to be promoted. 

Factor in the handful of Ducks that were clearly promotable but took themselves out of the running and maybe there ya have it.

Interpret the data how you will...my takeaway is that the AF is treating things like business as usual where the rubber meets the road, yet is talking like we're in some kind of pilot retention crisis. It's almost as if management's words don't match their actions...weird.

Edited by nsplayr
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I just found out that an earlier separation date is at the discretion of your commander. I'm hoping to be out pretty quickly, but our unit is hurting for bodies, so I'm wondering how this plays out.

For those wondering, an earlier separation date has no effect on separation pay, unless you end up not making the minimum service required to qualify for the pay. Since they set my date for 31 December, there are no tax reasons for waiting the full 6 months, so I'm going to press for an early separation.

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I wasn't going to post, but curiosity has gotten the better of me. Duck, aren't you worried about taking the rather drastic steps you're taking to get out of your commitment early affecting your transition to the ANG? If I was on the hiring board, I know I'd get a raised eyebrow with all the stuff you've said you did. 

And please don't just go "no". I'm seriously interested.

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18 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

I wasn't going to post, but curiosity has gotten the better of me. Duck, aren't you worried about taking the rather drastic steps you're taking to get out of your commitment early affecting your transition to the ANG? If I was on the hiring board, I know I'd get a raised eyebrow with all the stuff you've said you did. 

And please don't just go "no". I'm seriously interested.

he had better be sure he can get out of any remaining ADSCs.... 

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he had better be sure he can get out of any remaining ADSCs.... 

All ADSCs are negated when you decline continuation.


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I wasn't going to post, but curiosity has gotten the better of me. Duck, aren't you worried about taking the rather drastic steps you're taking to get out of your commitment early affecting your transition to the ANG? If I was on the hiring board, I know I'd get a raised eyebrow with all the stuff you've said you did. 

And please don't just go "no". I'm seriously interested.

Good question. Before I did any of this I had previously tried to Palace Chase back to my home ANG unit, you know back when we had too many pilots... I had already been hired with a Position Number way back then which they have kept open for me. Along the way I made it clear to them my intentions and they have been super cool with it all. Eventually I will need a waiver but right now they aren't having any problems with it. It also helps that my Guard unit is one of the few true Guard units left. The hatred for all things AD is still strong there, however they did just recently start wearing flight caps outside (all good things eventually come to an end). Still no saluting and all first name basis, including the Two-Star down at State HQ. All in all they have all been suooirtive with it (leadership included) and even said to expect my promotion to O-4 shortly after I arrive (whether true or not, I really don't care). In fact several in leadership there now were twice passed over Capts. Their main point is they want someone they don't mind hanging out/partying with for the next 10-20 years.

 

Life is good man.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Duck said:

Good question. Before I did any of this I had previously tried to Palace Chase back to my home ANG unit, you know back when we had too many pilots... I had already been hired with a Position Number way back then which they have kept open for me. Along the way I made it clear to them my intentions and they have been super cool with it all. Eventually I will need a waiver but right now they aren't having any problems with it. It also helps that my Guard unit is one of the few true Guard units left. The hatred for all things AD is still strong there, however they did just recently start wearing flight caps outside (all good things eventually come to an end). Still no saluting and all first name basis, including the Two-Star down at State HQ. All in all they have all been suooirtive with it (leadership included) and even said to expect my promotion to O-4 shortly after I arrive (whether true or not, I really don't care). In fact several in leadership there now were twice passed over Capts. Their main point is they want someone they don't mind hanging out/partying with for the next 10-20 years.

 

Life is good man.

 

 

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Tankers?

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From AFPC site:

"Officers are positioned for promotion sequence based on the following criteria, applied in the order listed:

-Current Grade Date of Rank
-Previous grade date of rank, if applicable
-Total Active Federal Commissioned Service
-Total Federal Commissioned Service
-Regular officers will precede Reserve officers. Regular officers will rank among themselves based on date of Presidential nomination for appointment as a Regular officer
-Regular Air Force acceptance date; based on the date of the Air Force Form 133, Oath of Office
-Graduates of Service academies, appointed as Regular officers and assigned the same date of rank, on the active duty list in order of their graduation class standing
-Date of birth, with the earliest date taking precedence
-Reverse social security number, with the lowest number taking precedence"

From the looks of other Major selects TAFCS seemed to play the biggest part putting all the pilot types towards the end thanks to our six month "vacation".


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There's a page on Mypers that gives a rundown

date of rank, date of ADSC, goes all the way down to last 4 of your SSN in reverse order if there's a tie.  

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Rumor floating around that the P0417D board for '09 Capts has been moved up 2 months from December to October. Can anyone verify?


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7 minutes ago, Duck said:

Rumor floating around that the P0417D board for '09 Capts has been moved up 2 months from December to October. Can anyone verify?


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Interesting.  I thought boards were moving in the other direction.  I'll check when I get to work next week if not already answered 

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15 hours ago, bennynova said:

Interesting.  I thought boards were moving in the other direction.  I'll check when I get to work next week if not already answered 

They were until all the majors hit the end of their ADSC and bailed for the airlines.

Meanwhile, the promotion rate for rated officers continues to lag the MSG.

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Quick question from a long retired guy.   When I was on active duty the promotion board looked at your official photograph.  Every time a senior officer who had been on a promotion would talk about what they considered important, they would go on and on about how important that photo was to them.  Don't look angry, but don't smile like an idiot.   Be sure your ribbons are all there and they are not crooked.    NO MUSTACHE!  HAIRCUT HAIRCUT HAIRCUT.   Don't have a double chin.

Shortly after I retired in 1994 they took the photos out of the promotion jackets.

Given the USAF tendency to download the bombs and upload the torpedos I was wondering, do current promotion boards look at your official picture?

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I submitted this and still made it. I guess the standards have lowered.

IMG_0440.JPG

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Question:

With a continued decrease in the number of pilots coming up for promotion each year (due to the pilot shortage), will it be less competitive to promote to O-5 and above? Or does the promotion rate roughly remain the same? 

 

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46 minutes ago, Newb said:

Question:

With a continued decrease in the number of pilots coming up for promotion each year (due to the pilot shortage), will it be less competitive to promote to O-5 and above? Or does the promotion rate roughly remain the same? 

 

Hard to say.  In the midst of a rated retention crisis, this year's major and Lt Col promotion boards selected rated officers at a lower rate than MSG officers.  The overall number of MSG officers and rated officers competing for Lt Col were about equal.  I know a rated officer who was passed over for Lt Col with a DP on his PRF.

Bottom line: despite the shortage, the promotion boards don't seem to be looking at your primary AFSC when making decisions.

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On 7/26/2017 at 8:13 AM, Duck said:

Rumor floating around that the P0417D board for '09 Capts has been moved up 2 months from December to October. Can anyone verify?


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Any ideas on why they would do this? Unless they are going to have a very high increment and fly through pinning on the 08' guys, I don't know why they would move the board to the left.  Otherwise they would just be building a massive amount of Maj selects.

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50 minutes ago, flyusaf83 said:

Any ideas on why they would do this? Unless they are going to have a very high increment and fly through pinning on the 08' guys, I don't know why they would move the board to the left.  Otherwise they would just be building a massive amount of Maj selects.

they aren't doing it, so it doesn't matter

 

PO417D board remains in December.   we are about 150 days out (minimum needed to get through all the gouge).   I think it's too late to make it any earlier already.

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Sorry everyone. My Wing Exec misread the email on the PRF dates and thought the whole board was pushing left.

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17 hours ago, Newb said:

Question:

With a continued decrease in the number of pilots coming up for promotion each year (due to the pilot shortage), will it be less competitive to promote to O-5 and above? Or does the promotion rate roughly remain the same? 

 

While there is some merit to being the best of what's left, I doubt it will be any less competitive.  You're in the line of the AF category, which includes a majority of the support personnel.  You shouldn't see a change in absolute numbers or quality of records for them since the economy isn't luring them away at the same rate as pilots.  With 4 year commitments, by the time they reach the O-4/O-5 boards, they've had a couple chances to leave, RIF, etc.  Whatever is left out of that pool is going to be competitive.

Pilot side, your path is already set by the time you hit your 10 year commitment.  When the chosen ones bail at 10 years, the overall chances of the pilot pool decrease, since the system doesn't accept late bloomers.

Short of specific board directions to promote more pilots, the current crop of O-6s will look for the things that got themselves promoted.  You'll continue to see support personnel promoted at a higher rate than pilots, and your promotion board members lamenting the fact that pilot records aren't as strong as they used to be. 

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37 minutes ago, NKAWTG said:

 

Short of specific board directions to promote more pilots, the current crop of O-6s will look for the things that got themselves promoted. 

Remind me again; who is in charge of flying wings?  Of most MAJCOMs?  Of Big Blue itself?

Image result for same as it ever was

Same as it ever was...

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7 hours ago, NKAWTG said:

While there is some merit to being the best of what's left, I doubt it will be any less competitive.  You're in the line of the AF category, which includes a majority of the support personnel.  You shouldn't see a change in absolute numbers or quality of records for them since the economy isn't luring them away at the same rate as pilots.  With 4 year commitments, by the time they reach the O-4/O-5 boards, they've had a couple chances to leave, RIF, etc.  Whatever is left out of that pool is going to be competitive.

Pilot side, your path is already set by the time you hit your 10 year commitment.  When the chosen ones bail at 10 years, the overall chances of the pilot pool decrease, since the system doesn't accept late bloomers.

Short of specific board directions to promote more pilots, the current crop of O-6s will look for the things that got themselves promoted.  You'll continue to see support personnel promoted at a higher rate than pilots, and your promotion board members lamenting the fact that pilot records aren't as strong as they used to be. 

Actually, you'll probably see select percentages go down. Why? Because everyone left will HAVE to fly the line, leaving the REMFs as the only able bodies to man the Wing Bake Sale. 

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On 7/31/2017 at 5:25 PM, war007afa said:

Actually, you'll probably see select percentages go down. Why? Because everyone left will HAVE to fly the line, leaving the REMFs as the only able bodies to man the Wing Bake Sale. 

Telling that rated promotion rates continue to decline in the midst of a rated Manning shortage.

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