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Promotion and PRF Information


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20 minutes ago, ihtfp06 said:


I think it was for the FY16 board that somebody FOIA requested and then compiled the full board stats. For IPZ, if you were at school it was 100%, staff was in the 90s, Wing/Base level was around 50%.


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Staffs actually tend to do worse. Less overall DP opportunity. 

Ive always been bothered by our promotion construct. We take our “top XX%” bodies and move them up to staff. Then we allocate the same DP proportion to the staff bubbas as the Wing guys. So you can be 3/4 staff weenies when you would have been solidly in the DP pool if you stayed at the Wing with a 55% DP.

MAJCOMs make up for some of this in the MLRs, but the Air Staff rarely has an aggregate large enough to make a difference due to the effects of staff cuts from PBD720 (less staff is good, unless you’re looking for a DP while on it). 

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Just for a frame of reference... I met my 1BTZ and IPZ looks on student status. Was an ACSC student for the BTZ and got a P. The next year, was in a Fellowship for my IPZ. The only change in my record was a training report from ACSC. Met the board with the exact same NO PRF both years. Got a DP for my IPZ. Obviously the board weighed my school completion and/or promotion zone as those were the only changes to my records between the two boards. YMMV


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I'm a prior LAF guy, now flt doc, that's been lurking here.  The amount of good gouge is appreciated.  

MC0618A "as met" has posted on PRDA.  Our releases have ranged from late Nov to early Jan, so no telling when results actually come out, but I follow this site to learn and be entertained.  Cheers.

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3 hours ago, pcola said:

Just for a frame of reference... I met my 1BTZ and IPZ looks on student status. Was an ACSC student for the BTZ and got a P. The next year, was in a Fellowship for my IPZ. The only change in my record was a training report from ACSC. Met the board with the exact same NO PRF both years. Got a DP for my IPZ. Obviously the board weighed my school completion and/or promotion zone as those were the only changes to my records between the two boards. YMMV


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BPZ DP allocation rates are much lower than IPZ DP allocation rates. Your situation is pretty common.

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Just found out that my wing doesn't even have one DP to hand out...only 2 officers total in the '05 Year Group, and the AFI says you need at least three to get one DP.
Pray for me going into the MLR, fellas.  I need all the help I can get.

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If the promotion rate is 90% for the 05 year group, I wouldn't sweat it. Your situation could be common throughout many wings. What if AFPC already knows there might not be enough DPs for the 05 year group? A 90% promotion rate just doesn't seem reasonable for a year group. Unless big blue goes screw it, promote everyone without any negative indicators, which could potentially be everyone. 

Edited by HarleyQuinn
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Just found out that my wing doesn't even have one DP to hand out...only 2 officers total in the '05 Year Group, and the AFI says you need at least three to get one DP.
Pray for me going into the MLR, fellas.  I need all the help I can get.


With no outright DP, and if the MLR doesn’t net you a DP...the push line “If I had a DP...” is key.
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7 hours ago, HarleyQuinn said:

If the promotion rate is 90% for the 05 year group, I wouldn't sweat it. Your situation could be common throughout many wings. What if AFPC already knows there might not be enough DPs for the 05 year group? A 90% promotion rate just doesn't seem reasonable for a year group. Unless big blue goes screw it, promote everyone without any negative indicators, which could potentially be everyone. 

It's a big "what-if?".  I've not heard the 90% from anywhere else.  I had a meeting with my WG/CV that was only tangentially related (more about where my next job will be), and he hadn't heard the 90% rumor.  Neither had the guys running the AFPC webinar yesterday afternoon.  
What I do know is that AFGSC has 50 officers going to the MLR.

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8 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

 


With no outright DP, and if the MLR doesn’t net you a DP...the push line “If I had a DP...” is key.

 

Absolutely.  This happened to my buddy on the last O-5 board.  Only 2 eligibles  and he came away with a P at the MLR.  Senior Rater wrote push line "If I had a DP...it would be his" and he got promoted. 

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On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 5:59 AM, Jetpilot said:

I was referring to dudes who were 1 BTZ.  I wanted to clarify if the above statement referencing the colonel applied to IPZ folks or BTZ.  

IPZ.  It's still difficult to pull a DP from the school MLR BTZ from what I've gathered.  My point from the post was that if you're in student status for your IPZ look and you get a P or DP, your chances at getting promoted are nearly 100....so it's not that big of deal of you come away from the school MLR with a P.  

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8 hours ago, HarleyQuinn said:

If the promotion rate is 90% for the 05 year group, I wouldn't sweat it. Your situation could be common throughout many wings. What if AFPC already knows there might not be enough DPs for the 05 year group? A 90% promotion rate just doesn't seem reasonable for a year group. Unless big blue goes screw it, promote everyone without any negative indicators, which could potentially be everyone. 

High promotion rate can be deceptive...My YG was promoted at about 75% overall.  For DP it was nearly 100% but Ps only promoted at about 50% rate.  

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Has anyone here gone through a Special Selection Promotion Board for missing documentation etc.?  It was discussed on the AFPC webinar yesterday.  Also, a couple of people asked questions about processes out of their control holding up OPRs/DECs, which seems likely those folks should meet a Special Selection board.   

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1 hour ago, Jetpilot said:

Has anyone here gone through a Special Selection Promotion Board for missing documentation etc.?  It was discussed on the AFPC webinar yesterday.  Also, a couple of people asked questions about processes out of their control holding up OPRs/DECs, which seems likely those folks should meet a Special Selection board.   

 

I have not gone through a special selection board but I did spend a stint as the assignments officer for my career field (not on the porch).

 

Here's what I can tell you from my memory... If you are missing items, last I heard, the default answer is to allow the member to meet the supplemental board.

What does the supplemental board look like? They essentially recreate the board that you met. Meaning, the records of folks that need to meet the supplemental board are intermingled with a controlled sample from the original board. This sample represents the cut-off that occurred at that board. If your record can beat the records that made it across the finish line...then you will be promoted. If not, then you do not promote.

A word of advice. I had a member's put a crap-ton of hope into "Well my joint time was incorrect" on my record. But in the end, it didn't move the needle. Don't get me wrong, every inch counts (Al Pachino--Any Given Sunday)... but be mindful that you aren't creating false hope.

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1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

Blows my mind that some of y’all care this much about such a broken process of paper work queep

 

god bless you

I'd love to not care, but I'm actually looking to get promoted.  Turns out, airlines don't use navigators anymore.

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4 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Blows my mind that some of y’all care this much about such a broken process of paper work queep

 

god bless you

3

I'm just happy that I joined the AF to be at the controls of a multi-million dollar manned aerial machine with the goal of helping people. 

Edited by norskman
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The guys that come to work for 4 hours a day and are pretty useless get paid the same as those who spend 10 hours a day at work embracing the queep monster.  If you are between the 5 year and 18 year mark, have wings, a pulse and don't stab someone, you will make it to 20 years in the current air force.

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4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I'd love to not care, but I'm actually looking to get promoted.  Turns out, airlines don't use navigators anymore.

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

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1 hour ago, FUSEPLUG said:

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

I've seen Reserve guys get O-5 without ACSC. Not sure how Guard would work, but I've always gotten the impression they give less Forks.

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The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation.

Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress...

Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

 

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