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Promotion and PRF Information


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Just now, Duck said:

I'm thinking this is a way to keep pilots from requesting to be passed over. That's what my Commander thinks. Too many people wrote letters.

Is that common? I mean, you're the only person I've heard of that has written a do not promote me letter.

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3 minutes ago, Homestar said:

Is that common? I mean, you're the only person I've heard of that has written a do not promote me letter.

I've had a ton of people PM me telling me they were thinking of doing the same thing. Most of the guys I know APZ write letters to make sure they don't get promoted 1 Above. Bottom line, who knows? Probably more than we think.

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I've had a ton of people PM me telling me they were thinking of doing the same thing. Most of the guys I know APZ write letters to make sure they don't get promoted 1 Above. Bottom line, who knows? Probably more than we think.
I don't think that many write letters. That said, I'm guessing after offering blanket continuation to the critical AFSCs, they saw how many people are refusing continuation and realized there was a leak they could plug.
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3 hours ago, Duck said:

I'm thinking this is a way to keep pilots from requesting to be passed over. That's what my Commander thinks. Too many people wrote letters.

We'll call it the Duck Effect. You thought you could out smart the system by asking not to be promoted but the AF needs 11Ms to fly and fill everything 11F/Bs can't be released. This gets you and others to 12 and if necessary with a strategic PCS to 14. At that point the AF can evaluate the force and conveniently at O-5. Some (not you) will choose to stay, or try to stay, possibly get passed over once (or twice) if we need to cull, and continuation to 20 to smooth things out. That gives the AF four or five opportunities to manage the force. The unfortunate reality is that unless everyone pulls a Duck, that O-5 decision point is going to be painful for people who should have left at O-4, are at 14-16 of 20, past the point of changing their retirement, and aren't continued.

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56 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:
3 hours ago, Duck said:
they saw how many people are refusing continuation and realized there was a leak they could plug.

I believe it's this... this is my category and I've had a ton of questions if this affects me. Nope, separation orders in hand, couldn't be happier. 

 I wonder if I could change my declination of continuation with AFPC... then meet an APZ board and be promoted. Oh, no thanks. 

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17 hours ago, DUNBAR said:

I think we're really missing the most noteworthy part of that AFPC news release.  Specifically, there is actually a duty title called "Chief of Workforce Development for the Air Force Talent Management Innovation Cell." 

I wonder if there's a Deputy Chief as well.

Dude, we found out where to cut the staffs!!

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16 hours ago, Homestar said:

Is that common? I mean, you're the only person I've heard of that has written a do not promote me letter.

It is very common  Perhaps not in the circles that you run in, but there are tons of guys doing anything they can to escape from Big Blue.

The desperation is real. We're not just making it up.

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1 minute ago, bennynova said:

What does this do for the lt Col boards in the future?

Same number will be promoted as historically has been, meaning lower promotion percentage?

 

increased or equal percentage will be promoted?

 

Depends.

By law, only so many officers can be on the rolls at each grade.  That percentage fluctuates depending on authorized force strength.

Big Blue saying 100% to O-4 means they literally don't have to cut anyone.  (Why that fact exists, of course, is the great unanswered by Air Staff question).

The number of total O-5s will also be set so the culling of the herd will occur then as well.  Assuming that the herd doesn't keep finding weak areas of the fence and escape into the wild.  If the numbers then are also below requirements, then the percentages for O-5 will increase.

 

Instead of the cliché of "Will the last one leaving the Air Force please turn out the lights?," it appears that USAF is working its way toward 100% selection to general officer.

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How so?

Blue says it needs X number of majors to do all the jobs-staff, leadership, etc.- now.  To get that number of O-4s, everyone will make it on this board.

The flying warrant officer idea is for dudes to just fly.

I'm not arguing, I'm just not tracking.

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27 minutes ago, bennynova said:

He's stating that there will be a number of majors who have no realistic chance to make O-5s.   

Ok, understand now.

Don't think the math adds up, but at least I understand what he meant.

If 100 majors are promoted now and four years from now, 65 lt cols are needed, then 65% (or whatever the legal limit is at that time) of those 100 majors (discounting any variables like separation, etc) will be promoted.

None of this detracts from this very visible failure by the Air Force to retain enough people, never mind of a higher quality, to fill its quota of majors, hence it has to promote 100%.  Yet the beast doesn't seem to be questioning "why?"

 

 

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 It appears that this is a "forest and number of trees" situation.

The Air Force isn't promoting more people to major.  It will promote the same number of people.  

It is because people are bailing at what should be an alarming rate to the Air Staff that the percentage of those eligible is 100% on this board per the announcement.  Bigger percentage of a smaller pool = same total numbers promoting.  Not a net gain for anyone.

Not sure if the "insecurity" thing was directed specifically, but in two more weeks I can hit the cigs aisle and Class VI with my retirement check for the month, so my dog in this fight is exceedingly small.  Others do.  As stated above, this is an administrative stop-loss to some.  To others, it's a good thing.

USAF does not seem to be addressing the fundamental issues and instead is trying different sized band-aids to stop the bleeding.  

Edited by brickhistory
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5 hours ago, HeloDude said:

If you were originally going to be passed over to O-4 your chances of making O-5 is pretty close to zero.  I would also like to add that only insecure people are against a higher promotion rate to Major.  

Exactly. JQP of course wrote an article about how he was against it, you should see some of the drama queen comments on there...

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6 hours ago, dream big said:

Exactly. JQP of course wrote an article about how he was against it, you should see some of the drama queen comments on there...

I think the JQP article was trying to make a very nuanced point that is over-simplified by saying that he is against this decision.  As brick said above, this decision results in the same number of people promoting, not more, but in a smaller pool the percentage must be higher.  The USAF needs that number of people to fill jobs that many people think don't need to be filled. 

Instead of promoting a higher percentage IOT achieve the same numbers to fill useless staff billets, why not promote less (or the same historical %) and cut the dumb jobs?  That was the point JQP was trying to make, but you're right that it's been drowned out by drama queens who are salty that making O-4 will no longer require whatever knob gobbling they did to make it.

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Well.. not just this YG - 

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2017/09/18/all-eligible-air-force-captains-to-be-promoted-to-major-for-next-three-four-years/

"Goldfein also said that promoting all qualified captains will mean squadron commanders won’t have to do the paperwork involved, which he said amounted to “a pretty significant administrative burden” and would free up considerable amounts of their time.

Wilson also said that without these promotion boards, squadron commanders will have to step up and tell underperforming captains that they’re not cutting it.

“If you’ve got a captain who really shouldn’t become a major, you need to step forward and say so, and not move it to some faceless promotion board,” Wilson said."

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Well.. not just this YG - 
http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2017/09/18/all-eligible-air-force-captains-to-be-promoted-to-major-for-next-three-four-years/
"Goldfein also said that promoting all qualified captains will mean squadron commanders won’t have to do the paperwork involved, which he said amounted to “a pretty significant administrative burden” and would free up considerable amounts of their time.
Wilson also said that without these promotion boards, squadron commanders will have to step up and tell underperforming captains that they’re not cutting it.
“If you’ve got a captain who really shouldn’t become a major, you need to step forward and say so, and not move it to some faceless promotion board,” Wilson said."


Well... if nothing else, I don't have to worry about my board next year if this actually happens like it seems it will. (I'm a 2010 guy so my board is 2018)
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47 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

“If you’ve got a captain who really shouldn’t become a major, you need to step forward and say so, and not move it to some faceless promotion board,” Wilson said."

So at what point prior to the next board is the AF going to provide CC's the spine to truly mentor and state an individuals worth in the squadron to their face? This is a novel concept by the Secretary, but I posit that it will not happen in the next 4 years. CC's typically let someone else do their dirty work or have become all too accustomed to utilizing PRF subtleties to eliminate an individual. 

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15 hours ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

So at what point prior to the next board is the AF going to provide CC's the spine to truly mentor and state an individuals worth in the squadron to their face? This is a novel concept by the Secretary, but I posit that it will not happen in the next 4 years. CC's typically let someone else do their dirty work or have become all too accustomed to utilizing PRF subtleties to eliminate an individual. 

While I agree with you, it is not up to someone else to tell me as a leader to be a f$&king man and give someone feedback to their face.  My old Sq/cc would rack and stack everyone, and wouldn't hesitate to tell someone they were his #99/99, why they were 99 and what they could do to fix it.

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9 hours ago, dream big said:

While I agree with you, it is not up to someone else to tell me as a leader to be a f$&king man and give someone feedback to their face.  My old Sq/cc would rack and stack everyone, and wouldn't hesitate to tell someone they were his #99/99, why they were 99 and what they could do to fix it.

Dream...I wish that your experience was more of the norm. Unfortunately, in my experience leadership has typically passed the buck on making the call on many under-performers. I am not talking about individuals who force commanders to take action after a DUI/e-ticket/etc, but rather those who just aren't performing in the top 85% but do just enough to get by, legally. Does the CSAF still want those individuals promoted? To me it is obvious not to promote those with a UIF (though I know not all UIFs are equal) but it's not obvious what the Chief's expectations are in his latest comments.

My original comment was tongue-in-cheek...I've worked for some great commander's, many that I consider close confidantes a decade plus after I worked for them. One of which is lauded by many in this forum for his AF viral blog. The weakness I witnessed by each of them was to nip poor performance in the bud. Maybe I am a bit jaded, but I have a gut feeling that going forward without any regulated accountability, commanders will not "be a f$&king man" and choose the path of least resistance. How long was fire-wall fives a known problem? Everyone knew the right thing was to mark individuals down to truly depict many individuals records but the top 85% were firewalled! I expect the negative connotation to "be a man" and have an individual without a UIF or any obvious negative discriminators passed over, even if it's the right thing to do, will outweigh their decision to speak up. Just my .02, not how I would handle it, nor is is how I want it done.

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1 hour ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Dream...I wish ...

OK, but now the promo game has changed for the next few years.  The man (or woman) to impress is the CC, not a board, at least til O-5.  We may see unit/aircraft performance become the leading indicator of leadership and promotion.  Records will still need good (enough) paper for O-5 and on, and for PSCing to that new boss.  I think it'll be an interesting period and a process that may stick around for more than 4 years/boards. 

What will be interesting is the outside pressures to keep people instead of letting them go.  

Out

Edited by disgruntledemployee
English, MFer, I can't spell it
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