Promotion and PRF Information

[jazzdude]

I think it serves as a quality check and a second chance.  Dudes were nonselects in the gray can bust their butt the next year if they really want to and still possibly make it, while those IPZ guys who were just kind of coasting get a wakeup call that they need to improve somehow if they want to get the nod.
If my numbers are correct, the APZ numbers this year were around 57, which is a fairly small percentage (although much higher than last year).  In my mind that also accounts for subjectivity and human error in the promotion board process.  Basically, if 1-5% of the promotions are going to APZs, then they're acknowledging that there's a 1-5% margin of error over the year before.

I would add that, if this becomes the norm, this could help ease career pressures, and maybe even make the AF a better place. It attacks one of the fundemental problems where everything is done by year groups. This seems like the first step in making year groups matter less, and would provide a bigger pool of experience to select commanders from, so the AF wins (no longer has to pick from the best of what's left in a year group for command, and hopefully screen out toxic officers from taking command by virtue of just not getting out).

But the average officer wins as well: less pressure to check boxes on an artificially short timeline to meet what in the past was essentially a one shot at promotion (where APZ really did seem like correcting for a margin of error), and time to learn a job and make a difference. Maybe there would be less pressure for commanders to cycle people through jobs every six months to make them look good on paper, and allow people to acquire some semblance of depth of knowledge and experience. And once there are people with actual knowledge and experience in jobs, maybe they can start to fix a broken system (vs now, when, by the time someone is knowledgeable enough to start to fix problems in their shop, they are moved out elsewhere, so nothing ever really gets fixed, or no meaningful changes are ever enacted). Or they could choose to just fly the line for a few years, but not completely close the door to promotion later down the line. Or just fly the line under continuation. It gives us career options again, and I think that's a good thing.

Maybe I'm just trying to be (cautiously) optimistic about the AF, despite all the problems I've seen/experienced. I don't really get mad at the AF anymore, just disappointed that what the AF says it values and what it values doesn't always line up. I think increasing APZ rates is a step in the right direction though.

In full disclosure, I was APZ to major. My commanders were shocked when I got passed over, and happy the AF "righted a wrong" about 7 months later. I had decided if I want picked up APZ that I'd decline continuation, primarily because there was no real career path for a continued Capt (also, I remember how AMC treats anyone not on the golden path, especially the passed over guys). That being said, once I came to that conclusion, I had an incredible amount of freedom to say no to stupid stuff (what are you going to do, kick me out? My airline apps are just waiting for an availability date, and I hear there's a hiring wave going on). It's amazing how good life gets when you don't feel like you have to play the game anymore.

[bennynova]

For clarification, and most picked up on it

 

   I was seeing the following percentages.

85% overall selection rate out of estimated 1300 eligibles 1105 promotees

At the Maicon level, seeing following percentages.... iPZ will go up slightly when not in a MAJCOM

65% effective promotion rate for IPZ, or 845 promotees

13% of 1300 or 169 BPZ promotions

  obviously 169/3500 is a smaller percent

 

7% of 1300 or 91 APZ promotees

 

  when it's all said and done and the total Af stats are announced I think it will be closer to 900 in zone   140 below and 75 above 

 

 

[Weezer]

1 hour ago, bennynova said:

For clarification, and most picked up on it

 

   I was seeing the following percentages.

85% overall selection rate out of estimated 1300 eligibles 1105 promotees

At the Maicon level, seeing following percentages.... iPZ will go up slightly when not in a MAJCOM

65% effective promotion rate for IPZ, or 845 promotees

13% of 1300 or 169 BPZ promotions

  obviously 169/3500 is a smaller percent

 

7% of 1300 or 91 APZ promotees

 

  when it's all said and done and the total Af stats are announced I think it will be closer to 900 in zone   140 below and 75 above 

 

 

Interesting:  I saw (AF wide) -

IPZ:  1045/1439 (72.62%)

APZ:  57/1063 (5.36%)

I don't have the BPZ at my fingertips.  Wonder where the delta is...I like your numbers for APZ and BPZ better, but obviously not great for IPZ.

[CopyShot]

Interesting:  I saw (AF wide) -
IPZ:  1045/1439 (72.62%)
APZ:  57/1063 (5.36%)
I don't have the BPZ at my fingertips.  Wonder where the delta is...I like your numbers for APZ and BPZ better, but obviously not great for IPZ.

Is that truth data from this year's board?


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[Weezer]

1 minute ago, CopyShot said:

 

Is that truth data from this year's board?


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It's supposed to be...

[bennynova]

I'm extrapolating mine from one majcom.   Acc

 

and I'd  imagine acc has a higher rate of APZ promotions with many 11fs

 

 

Edited May 16, 2017 by bennynova

[Champ Kind]

3 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 

I would add that, if this becomes the norm, this could help ease career pressures, and maybe even make the AF a better place. It attacks one of the fundemental problems where everything is done by year groups. This seems like the first step in making year groups matter less, and would provide a bigger pool of experience to select commanders from, so the AF wins (no longer has to pick from the best of what's left in a year group for command, and hopefully screen out toxic officers from taking command by virtue of just not getting out).

But the average officer wins as well: less pressure to check boxes on an artificially short timeline to meet what in the past was essentially a one shot at promotion (where APZ really did seem like correcting for a margin of error), and time to learn a job and make a difference. Maybe there would be less pressure for commanders to cycle people through jobs every six months to make them look good on paper, and allow people to acquire some semblance of depth of knowledge and experience. And once there are people with actual knowledge and experience in jobs, maybe they can start to fix a broken system (vs now, when, by the time someone is knowledgeable enough to start to fix problems in their shop, they are moved out elsewhere, so nothing ever really gets fixed, or no meaningful changes are ever enacted). Or they could choose to just fly the line for a few years, but not completely close the door to promotion later down the line. Or just fly the line under continuation. It gives us career options again, and I think that's a good thing.

Maybe I'm just trying to be (cautiously) optimistic about the AF, despite all the problems I've seen/experienced. I don't really get mad at the AF anymore, just disappointed that what the AF says it values and what it values doesn't always line up. I think increasing APZ rates is a step in the right direction though.

In full disclosure, I was APZ to major. My commanders were shocked when I got passed over, and happy the AF "righted a wrong" about 7 months later. I had decided if I want picked up APZ that I'd decline continuation, primarily because there was no real career path for a continued Capt (also, I remember how AMC treats anyone not on the golden path, especially the passed over guys). That being said, once I came to that conclusion, I had an incredible amount of freedom to say no to stupid stuff (what are you going to do, kick me out? My airline apps are just waiting for an availability date, and I hear there's a hiring wave going on). It's amazing how good life gets when you don't feel like you have to play the game anymore.

 

I think you're giving the AF way too much credit.  I applaud your optimism, though.

 

It's amazing how good life gets when you don't feel like you have to play the game anymore.

 

Absolutely spot on.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Champ Kind

[pcola]

B/I/APZ is all a stupid holdover of an antiquated system of "paying your dues." Everyone should always be eligible to compete for the next higher grade, regardless of time in rank. That's where the cream is able to rise to the top. The best talent often get frustrated at the prospect of having to wait 20 years to be in a position to make any real changes and move on long before then. Tim Kane wrote a great book about it..."Bleeding Talent." I think the moment one pins on Capt, he/she should be eligible to compete for Maj the next year, and so on. You keep competing until you get out. Everyone is ITZ all the time.
ETA : And yes, I'm aware of DOPMA. Doesn't make it any less stupid.

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[Weezer]

5 minutes ago, pcola said:

B/I/APZ is all a stupid holdover of an antiquated system of "paying your dues." Everyone should always be eligible to compete for the next higher grade, regardless of time in rank. That's where the cream is able to rise to the top. The best talent often get frustrated at the prospect of having to wait 20 years to be in a position to make any real changes and move on long before then. Tim Kane wrote a great book about it..."Bleeding Talent." I think the moment one pins on Capt, he/she should be eligible to compete for Maj the next year, and so on. You keep competing until you get out. Everyone is ITZ all the time.


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How about instead of a flat out time standard (3 years TIG, minimum by DOPMA, waived for BPZ), you have a performance-based one?  Pick a key qualification or upgrade (or set thereof) that you have to meet before you're eligible...could be as simple as "Pilot" rating for Captain, "Senior Pilot" for Major, and "Command Pilot" for Lt Col.  Could be something else.  Similar to how the enlisted have to have a certain skill-level at a certain grade.  That way, you balance experience with quality.

Probably have to figure out something similar for maintenance and mission support, but the possibility is there.

[Guest]

I think the moment one pins on Capt, he/she should be eligible to compete for Maj the next year, and so on. You keep competing until you get out. Everyone is ITZ all the time.

This would only make the HPO system worse. It's bad enough that a lot of BPZs are staff weenies. If you were immediately eligible for promotion, it would be the guys with proximity to General Officers who would get picked up soonest. We'd have career execs/aide de camps pinning on faster than anyone's business while the guys hacking the mission get left in the dust. A pure meritocracy doesn't work when the "merits" are based on utter bullshit.


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[pcola]

Valid point about current BS metrics.  It is not a stand-alone solution, but revising DOPMA and up-or-out is certainly a part of any real solution.


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Edited May 16, 2017 by pcola

[baileynme]

I've recommended reading this report on a different thread, but Panetta's bi-partisan commission report on military personnel changes covers this and many other issues in their recommended changes. Here's the section on DOPMA:
"T-1: Replace “up-or-out” promotion processes with a “perform-to-stay” system.
For officers, remove DOPMA and ROPMA field-grade-officer- strength tables in order to allow the services to extend the careers of valuable service members who are not competitive for continued promotion. Additionally, allow individual service members to voluntarily remove themselves from promotion consideration in order to continue building technical expertise while also continuing to strengthen their professional résumés to become more competitive for future promotions.

For enlisted service members, although there are few statutory limitations on their ability to continue serving, the military services have implemented policies that mimic the officer system of up-or-out. Service secretaries should use their authority to ensure valuable, high-performing enlisted members are not being forced out of the military just because they are not competitive or interested in further promotion.

This recommendation would take advantage of the existing military-promotion-board process. Those service members continuing to remain in uniform must continue performing at a high level as verified by annual performance reports and supervisor assessments."

It's a pretty cool read if you just skip to the recommendations (we all know the issues so no reason to read the first 50 or so pages).
Link: https://cdn.bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BPC-Defense-Building-A-FAST-Force.pdf


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[17D_guy]

Next SOS class was cancelled to do a course re-write.  Gouge is they're going to add another week back, so future schedule is in the air also.

Class was supposed to start 5 Jun, so lots of people just had summer plans nixed.

[Weezer]

2 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

Next SOS class was cancelled to do a course re-write.  Gouge is they're going to add another week back, so future schedule is in the air also.

Class was supposed to start 5 Jun, so lots of people just had summer plans nixed.

Hope they add flickerball back in.  Probably would increase retention.

[Guest]

Hope they add flickerball back in.  Probably would increase retention.

What??? ICARUS is far better than flicker ball!


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[SurelySerious]

What??? ICARUS is far better than flicker ball!

 

 

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Could be their only chance in life to perform OCA.

 

Edit to add parody:

[Weezer]

23 minutes ago, ihtfp06 said:

What??? ICARUS is far better than flicker ball!


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[Karl Hungus]

3 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

Next SOS class was cancelled to do a course re-write.  Gouge is they're going to add another week back, so future schedule is in the air also.

Class was supposed to start 5 Jun, so lots of people just had summer plans nixed.

6.5 weeks.  Still a complete waste of time.

[LookieRookie]

3 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

Next SOS class was cancelled to do a course re-write.  Gouge is they're going to add another week back, so future schedule is in the air also.

Class was supposed to start 5 Jun, so lots of people just had summer plans nixed.

I got back my 4th of July since it was going to run till the 7th, no complaints from me.

[tac airlifter]

On 5/16/2017 at 1:12 PM, Weezer said:

Interesting:  I saw (AF wide) -

IPZ:  1045/1439 (72.62%)

APZ:  57/1063 (5.36%)

I don't have the BPZ at my fingertips.  Wonder where the delta is...I like your numbers for APZ and BPZ better, but obviously not great for IPZ.

3.4% BPZ.  There's one pilot with a P and no IDE that made BPZ, good for him!

[yin&yang]

This scheduled is posted in the SOS barbershop.  

[Duck]

SOS go home you're drunk and this is the promotion/PRF thread.


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[Skitzo]

3.4% BPZ.  There's one pilot with a P and no IDE that made BPZ, good for him!

How is that possible? At school presently maybe?


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[tac airlifter]

14 minutes ago, Skitzo said:

How is that possible? At school presently maybe?

 

There's always one black swan that bucks conventional wisdom.  I can't explain it.

[Bender]

There's always one black swan that bucks conventional wisdom.  I can't explain it.

Who are you? I must see this PRF...a black swan? More like the rainbow shitting unicorn. I want to see that...a lot. I'm as curious as I can possibly get about this sort of thing...which is less than my interest in the...proper use of the ellipsis.

But seriously, if you're on here...do share,
Bendy


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