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Promotion and PRF Information


Guest e3racing

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21 hours ago, Duck said:

Maybe ignorant question, is it common for most Commanders to let you know as soon as they know or to leave you hanging till public release?


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From my time as an exec the data would show up from the FSS to our office.  They would provide a letter of congratulations/regret that would typically be given to the Sq/CC's for dissemination.  The letters would be signed by the senior rater and he would invite a time to discuss the results if anyone was interested.  Also we would notify the non-selects first before the selects.  I don't remember there ever being a NET release date.  We would get the info out ASAP, usually a couple of days from receipt until all were notified.  It was understood that folks wouldn't make it facebook official until the time of the official release.  

I have seen other senior raters hand the letters out themselves.  This typically delayed the notification becuase finding a block in their schedule large enough for the LTC or Maj board results is difficult.

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Senior Raters and the FSS have always gotten the info early

both have letters to draft, documentation to update on surfs, etc

group and squadron commanders or equivalent find out a few days later.   Individuals have always found out by COB prior to release date.   

 

Statistics don't generally come out until public release date.  Sometimes a senior rather Or base might try to figure out statistics based on their persons and the list, but it's only accurate to a certain degree. 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Ram said:

Are the statistics of the board publicly available now?  Promotion rates for various categories should be pretty interesting...

Not as of 13 MAY. And for those looking, said statistics are located in AFPC Secure's Retrieval Application Web area under "Static Demographics." I used the site to determine if USAF rounded up or down to my 1% odds of selection. All the best to those competing! 

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85% promotion rate this year
  65% in the zone.   
The remainder comes from below and above the zone and equates numerically to roughly 20% of the in the zone eligibles.   


Are those stats coming off of AFPC or any place else that's accessible? Any further breakdown of the stats?


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11 hours ago, bennynova said:

85% promotion rate this year

  65% in the zone.   

The remainder comes from below and above the zone and equates numerically to roughly 20% of the in the zone eligibles.   

These stats don't make sense to me. From 2016 there were 1411 IPZ eligibles, with a 74% IPZ select rate meaning roughly 365 IPZ non-selects from 2016. Last year there were almost 3500 BPZ eligibles (includes both 1- and 2-yr BPZ). Assuming we limit BPZ to 5% and IPZ to 65% and promote 100% of last years non selects that results in a 28% overall promotion rate across the entire BPZ+IPZ+APZ pool.

edit:

(0.65*IPZ+0.05*BPZ+0.3*APZ) / (IPZ eligibles) ~ 85% overall selection rate

I think this is what was meant by 85% promotion rate.

Edited by Dogs-N-Guns
I think I figured out the fuzzy math...
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So with an overall promotion opportunity of 85%, that equates to a 75% I/APZ selection rate if the 10% BPZ opportunity is used completely.

If I was a betting man, I'd put this year's IPZ rate at 73% and APZ at 5%.

So:

There were around 1439 IPZ elibles.  the 85% opportunity equates to ~1223 promotions available.  ~122 are available for BPZs.  That leaves ~1101 for I/APZs to share.  The IPZ DP rate was 50%, so there were 719 DPs, so 382 Ps that got promoted in the I/APZ category (assuming 100% of DPs got picked up).  So the P selection rate for I/APZ (with ~1063 APZ) was 382/(719+1036) or 21%.  Realistically, that'll skew towards IPZ vice APZ.

Historically, IPZ rates are (from AFPC):

2016:  74.13%

2015:  72.03%

2014:  67.00% (opportunity was only 75% that year I believe)

2013:  74.40%

2012:  75.43%

2002-2011 average:  73.69%

So, USUALLY (2014 and 2012 being probable exceptions), 10% gets taken off the 85% opportunity to give to BPZ.  Some small percentage of the remaining 75% goes to APZ guys, and the rest goes to IPZ.

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1 hour ago, Champ Kind said:

How does lowering the IPZ opportunity this year to accommodate APZ help? It will just kick the can to subsequent years.

They don't lower the "IPZ opportunity."  What they've done for the past few years is instruct the board to discount the IPZ/APZ status of the record and compete them equally.  So, the IPZ opportunity isn't lowered, but APZ records that have good paper on top could "steal" an IPZ slot.

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They don't lower the "IPZ opportunity."  What they've done for the past few years is instruct the board to discount the IPZ/APZ status of the record and compete them equally.  So, the IPZ opportunity isn't lowered, but APZ records that have good paper on top could "steal" an IPZ slot.


Words matter and I didn't precisely phrase my comment. The point stands, though. IPZ guys that otherwise would have gotten promoted in favor of APZs only to create the same issue next year. Doesn't make sense.
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So with an overall promotion opportunity of 85%, that equates to a 75% I/APZ selection rate if the 10% BPZ opportunity is used completely.
If I was a betting man, I'd put this year's IPZ rate at 73% and APZ at 5%.
So:
There were around 1439 IPZ elibles.  the 85% opportunity equates to ~1223 promotions available.  ~122 are available for BPZs.  That leaves ~1101 for I/APZs to share.  The IPZ DP rate was 50%, so there were 719 DPs, so 382 Ps that got promoted in the I/APZ category (assuming 100% of DPs got picked up).  So the P selection rate for I/APZ (with ~1063 APZ) was 382/(719+1036) or 21%.  Realistically, that'll skew towards IPZ vice APZ.
Historically, IPZ rates are (from AFPC):
2016:  74.13%
2015:  72.03%
2014:  67.00% (opportunity was only 75% that year I believe)
2013:  74.40%
2012:  75.43%
2002-2011 average:  73.69%
So, USUALLY (2014 and 2012 being probable exceptions), 10% gets taken off the 85% opportunity to give to BPZ.  Some small percentage of the remaining 75% goes to APZ guys, and the rest goes to IPZ.


Where are you getting 10% BPZ? It's typically ~3%.
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6 minutes ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

It's part of the fuzzy AFPC math. 10% of the promotions are given to BPZ, but 10% of the total promotions are only ~3% of the BPZ eligibles.

Correct...the 10% is the percentage of the IPZ slots that are given to BPZers.  This year, since there are 1223 IPZ, there are ~122 BPZ promotions theoretically available.  Given that there are 2 YGs competing BPZ (that are often larger than the IPZ), that means it's at most a ~5% selection rate, assuming the 1 and 2 BPZ YGs are equal to the IPZ one.

For some reason, the RAW application where the stats are stored on AFPC Secure isn't showing up for me right now, so I can't give the actual numbers.

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22 minutes ago, Champ Kind said:

 


Words matter and I didn't precisely phrase my comment. The point stands, though. IPZ guys that otherwise would have gotten promoted in favor of APZs only to create the same issue next year. Doesn't make sense.

I think it serves as a quality check and a second chance.  Dudes were nonselects in the gray can bust their butt the next year if they really want to and still possibly make it, while those IPZ guys who were just kind of coasting get a wakeup call that they need to improve somehow if they want to get the nod.

If my numbers are correct, the APZ numbers this year were around 57, which is a fairly small percentage (although much higher than last year).  In my mind that also accounts for subjectivity and human error in the promotion board process.  Basically, if 1-5% of the promotions are going to APZs, then they're acknowledging that there's a 1-5% margin of error over the year before.

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