Promotion and PRF Information

[Tonka]

15 hours ago, pawnman said:

I still struggle to understand how I can be #1/24 flight commanders, #3/64 instructors in my squadron (the FTU), and be in the bottom 25% of my year group.

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

[Karl Hungus]

6 hours ago, Duck said:

How would the board look at a record that has several top strats but chose to NOT put them on their prf? Would a senior leader even let you sabotage yourself like that? Does the board really dig into your records? My OPR before my board shouldn't have a strat and will be my top OPR. Crazy questions I know, just trying to figure out options.

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

[pawnman]

11 hours ago, Skitzo said:

AFSOC did this with the "Commando Reach" program a couple years ago... Results were mixed.

I get the idea, but I worry about the year groups they are targeting and the stated desire to put guys through a TXC-3 (for previously qualified instructors) and make them an instructor a year later.  We have several BUFF guys we've been putting through the IQC course, on a shortened timeline due to their previous experience, and they all feel oversped (they all made it through, though).  I worry what happens when we cut the time for academics and the number of sorties in half for a guy who has never flown that aircraft.

I don't know what AFSOC or AMC is like in regards to upgrade timelines, but a year to instructor is unheard of in my community.  A year is where we start looking at guys for mission lead or aircraft commander.

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, Tonka said:

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

I can see that to a point, but I would have hoped #1/24 flight commanders in the OG would have helped.  The OG (not that anyone here isn't already aware) includes the OSS...stuff like Tower, Airfield Management, AFE, Wing Weapons and Tactics, Wing Intel, ARMS, SERE...

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, Karl Hungus said:

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

There's no commitment associated with promotion.

Are you looking to not be passed over, denied continuation, and get a severance package on the way out?

[Chuck17]

8 hours ago, Tonka said:

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

Pile on, and gonna play devils advocate because I'm sitting in cue for my O-5 board results, and I've just had this conversation with two flag officers.

Do you, as a pilot, care if someone is the #1/20 MPF officers or #1/20 LRS officers? No? Neither does the board. The board doesn't care if you're the best pilot in the world - when you reach the FGO ranks, they care about your ability to lead, to think, to get things done. Your skill at your AFSC matters - if you've not hit IP/EP status it will detract. But # 1/20 pilots is a second rate strat, because ultimately it doesn't matter. They want to see a demonstrated ability to lead "in the field..." Hence Field Grade Officer. 

No decoder wheel. No slight of hand. While obviously some are more skilled at the written word and PRFmanship than others, ultimately that form comes down to the bottom line and who is signing it. Nothing else matters. Not the C-method, not the narrative, not the language. When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you fall.

And more importantly, your commanders should have the guts to look you in the eye and tell you where you fall and why. That's the hard part of leadership. YMMV.

Chuck

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, Chuck17 said:

Pile on, and gonna play devils advocate because I'm sitting in cue for my O-5 board results, and I've just had this conversation with two flag officers.

Do you, as a pilot, care if someone is the #1/20 MPF officers or #1/20 LRS officers? No? Neither does the board. The board doesn't care if you're the best pilot in the world - when you reach the FGO ranks, they care about your ability to lead, to think, to get things done. Your skill at your AFSC matters - if you've not hit IP/EP status it will detract. But # 1/20 pilots is a second rate strat, because ultimately it doesn't matter. They want to see a demonstrated ability to lead "in the field..." Hence Field Grade Officer. 

No decoder wheel. No slight of hand. While obviously some are more skilled at the written word and PRFmanship than others, ultimately that form comes down to the bottom line and who is signing it. Nothing else matters. Not the C-method, not the narrative, not the language. When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you fall.

And more importantly, your commanders should have the guts to look you in the eye and tell you where you fall and why. That's the hard part of leadership. YMMV.

Chuck

The last point is the big one, isn't it?  Unfortunately, I found out I was getting a P when I got my PRF back from the WG/CC...all while my commander and the OG/CC were telling me what a great officer I was, how I was kicking ass at my job, how I had really hit the ground running after my PCS...

If this is the system we're going to use, it relies on telling people where they stack up BEFORE the PRFs are written, along with some guidance on how to improve that standing.

[Karl Hungus]

31 minutes ago, pawnman said:

There's no commitment associated with promotion.

Are you looking to not be passed over, denied continuation, and get a severance package on the way out?

I was asking a hypothetical regarding Duck's desires.  I'm not trying to separate... yet.  

[Duck]

How would the board look at a record that has several top strats but chose to NOT put them on their prf? Would a senior leader even let you sabotage yourself like that? Does the board really dig into your records? My OPR before my board shouldn't have a strat and will be my top OPR. Crazy questions I know, just trying to figure out options.

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

Great question for which I have dug through regs extensively to find the answer to. Short answer is if you are selected but decline promotion, you will serve out the remaining ADSC at the lower rank. You weren't twice passed over so no continuation required but you will separate at the end of your commitment.

[Hot Sauce Hoy]

5 hours ago, Chuck17 said:

 

 When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you stand

Chuck, good post. But I look at my O-5 PRF and don't know if I will be promoted. I have the "p" box checked but was strated #1 in a small pool of 5 by SR and have a super P and a bottom line that says all the right things. Is this the senior rater saying I need to fit in that 40% or so of "p"s that get promoted IPZ?  Is having a strong SR strat one of the keys to being promoted with a "p"?  Of course I have realistic expectations simply because the P is checked. 

Edited April 2, 2016 by Hot Sauce Hoy

[Chuck17]

If you're strat'd #1 on the PRF and have the super P because (for instance) the SR had no DPs to give, well I'd say you're good.

Are you on a staff? Duty above wing level at some point? That seemed to be a descriminator last year for whatever reason - I guess because we all look the same... If so, chances are good I'd say.

Chuck

[Chuck17]

On 3/11/2016 at 8:44 PM, TMFan said:

Chuck, link doesn't work anymore.  Would you mind reposting?

My bad. Let me see if I can make this work.

How to for PRFs...

And last year's promotions stats to O-5 from AMC...

PRF 101 January 2015.pdf

CY15A Lt Col Promotion Results.pdf

[ArcticGator]

Chuck, that's great info. Thanks!

[ArcticGator]

So help me understand slide 50 (performance based review) of the Lt Col Promotion Results brief...

Is that saying that 1 of the 28 guys who were passed over for O-5 had every one of those "boxes" checked in his record and didn't get selected?

That is very useful information when trying to figure out your chances.

[ThreeHoler]

All the AMC slides tell me is AMC is shitty at developing officers [on paper] who don't fit the "magic mold" (i.e. do a Phoenix program).

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, ArcticGator said:

So help me understand slide 50 (performance based review) of the Lt Col Promotion Results brief...

Is that saying that 1 of the 28 guys who were passed over for O-5 had every one of those "boxes" checked in his record and didn't get selected?

That is very useful information when trying to figure out your chances.

I'm curious how slide 18 flows from slide 17.  2 guys with only basic quals in the aircraft, both got DPs...yet a lack of instructor/examiner qual is called out on the next slide as a "detractor".

I also find it hilarious that they say "duty performance is job #1", when the slides seem to say the best way to succeed is to get a job that involves not doing your primary duty.

Edited April 3, 2016 by pawnman

[Homestar]

9 hours ago, pawnman said:

2 guys with only basic quals in the aircraft, both got DPs...yet a lack of instructor/examiner qual is called out on the next slide as a "detractor".
 

I wonder if in these cases they had instructor duty in previous aircraft, but due to crossflow hadn't upgraded to IP yet?

Everything you need to know about AMC is on slide 27:

AMC IPZ Recommendation:

DP: 69 Considered, 68 Promoted

P: 57 Considered, 8 Promoted.

If you get a P, you know exactly where you stand in AMC.

[Hot Sauce Hoy]

Something else I found of interest was slide 5. It states that MAJCOMs had a 64.3% select rate but "other" had an 82.3% select rate. Is "other" places like HAF, COCOMs, etc?  I wouldn't have thought that 43% of eligibles would have come from that pool. 

[Bode]

What is interesting is the promotion rate difference between AMC and CAF. I don't know what to make of it other than AMC doesn't take care of their people.

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[ThreeHoler]

What is interesting is the promotion rate difference between AMC and CAF. I don't know what to make of it other than AMC doesn't take care of their people.

QFT. If you compare the overall "punch" of PRFs coming out of the CAF vs MAF, you will see why. The CAF is better at telling the story. AMC/18 AF does not learn from other commands' successes and continues to write the same limp-dick PRFs with the same limp-dick results (I saw several C-method PRF with punch written for dudes by a very highly rated officer in AMC...get turned into mush by the group and wing leadership).

I'm curious to see what the real weight of "job above wing level" is on the O-5 boards as everyone I personally know who was passed over had no staff job at all (including someone with a DP). I only know of one (again my personal observation) person who was passed over on staff and he made every effort to be passed over (refused to do IDE).

[Chuck17]

Well you had a string of commanders in the Scott zip code who refused to do C-method PRFs for a while... I'm not saying everyone can sport a C-method, but if they can, than they should.

I didn't hang the "other PRF how-to" I have on hand because I need to edit it and remove the authors name (GO).  Then you'll see how bad the flavor of AMC PRFs can be - especially compared to the CAF... Hopefully we've moved past that...

Chuck

[Longhorn15]

1 hour ago, ThreeHoler said:

QFT. If you compare the overall "punch" of PRFs coming out of the CAF vs MAF, you will see why. The CAF is better at telling the story. AMC/18 AF does not learn from other commands' successes and continues to write the same limp-dick PRFs with the same limp-dick results (I saw several C-method PRF with punch written for dudes by a very highly rated officer in AMC...get turned into mush by the group and wing leadership).

I'm curious to see what the real weight of "job above wing level" is on the O-5 boards as everyone I personally know who was passed over had no staff job at all (including someone with a DP). I only know of one (again my personal observation) person who was passed over on staff and he made every effort to be passed over (refused to do IDE).

This is an interesting concept.  Very few CAF guys are going to staff these days.  In fact, as part of the CAF match, guys are volunteering for remote staff to get staff credit.  To give MAF guys an idea, I provide these two examples that I've seen in the last 2 years.  

1.  A FS/DO who turned down command, went Ops-to-Ops, and not for a command opportunity

2. An O-5, who has never been an IP, got non-vol'd to the FTU for IP duty

We saw a few pure-ops guys get BTZ last year from the CAF and AFSOC.  I'd be curious to know what directions to the board were.  Maybe staff matters more for MAF than CAF?

Notice you rarely see 11Fs anywhere but a fighter base of staff?  Strange times.

[ThreeHoler]

Agreed. My examples were MAF only. Most of my friends in the CAF have already bailed.

[pawnman]

14 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

QFT. If you compare the overall "punch" of PRFs coming out of the CAF vs MAF, you will see why. The CAF is better at telling the story. AMC/18 AF does not learn from other commands' successes and continues to write the same limp-dick PRFs with the same limp-dick results (I saw several C-method PRF with punch written for dudes by a very highly rated officer in AMC...get turned into mush by the group and wing leadership).

I'm curious to see what the real weight of "job above wing level" is on the O-5 boards as everyone I personally know who was passed over had no staff job at all (including someone with a DP). I only know of one (again my personal observation) person who was passed over on staff and he made every effort to be passed over (refused to do IDE).

Hilarious, because my wing was preaching to us a couple years ago to stop using so many acronyms in OPRs to make them more readable because "that's what the MAF does and they have higher promotion rates".

[TnkrToad]

16 hours ago, Lstcause257 said:

What is interesting is the promotion rate difference between AMC and CAF. I don't know what to make of it other than AMC doesn't take care of their people.

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Slides 9 & 10 on the AMC promo brief supports your assertion, particularly for WIC grads:

- IPZ O-5 promo rate for WIC grads:

-- AMC: 33% (2/6) . . . I can't for the life of me figure out how/why WIC grads fared so poorly

-- Overall AF: 72.7% (16/22) . . . The overall AF pilot promo rate was 73.4%; MAF WIC grads actually got promoted at a marginally lower rate that pilots across the entire AF

- BPZ O-5 promo rate:

-- Exactly Zero WIC, Phoenix Reach & Phoenix Mobility grads were selected BPZ in AMC

The funniest part is the banner across the bottom of the slide that touts, "Development Programs are Achieving Desired Outcome." I guess the desired outcome is for everyone but MAF experts to lead AMC/the AF.

TT