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Promotion and PRF Information


Guest e3racing

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Regarding recent O-4 board--higher promo % overall (92), but lower school select % (16). Masking grad school info had the desired result: for the bottom 20% of bubbas with a P, they competed on their official records.

Officers from non-ops career fields have 5 distinct advantages in both the competition for DPs and the O-4 board itself:

1) 100% have been Flight Commanders and supervised other people, which is not the case in ops. I expect that the non-selects for O-4 were not cycled through the Mickey Mouse flight command positions (A/B/C Flt vs DOV, DOT, etc) in their ops squadrons;

2) Non-ops have spent their entire careers trying to articulate their value to the broader AF. Everyone has an important role to play, but It is more of a stretch that a FSS 1Lt advances the national interests of the US than the officers in the OG. Every CGOM/CGOQ/CGOY/functional awards package requires them to think about and to justify their operational-to-strategic impact that is assumed away by many operators.

3) Ops bubbas do not get the same credit for deployed experience. Most non-ops folks have deployed to IZ and Afghan, while many (not all) ops frames supported from bases in other countries. Similar to #2 above, ops records--OPRs & citations--often use MDS-specific language and assume that the reader knows both the mission sets as well as the officer's role in that mission.

4) Ops communities have trouble weeding out folks due to ADSCs. Non-ops career fields have more weed-out options due to the shorter ADSC.

5) Competing for O-4 from a staff billet. Smaller pool of officers for strats/DPs, but their Sr Raters will probably be FO/GOs.

Grad school, SOS, performance in combat was not masked for the Sr Rater/Wg CC to give out DPs to the top 75% or to fight for folks on the bubble at the MLR.

Edited by WeTheSheeple
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1) 100% have been Flight Commanders and supervised other people, which is not the case in ops. I expect that the non-selects for O-4 were not cycled through the Mickey Mouse flight command positions (A/B/C Flt vs DOV, DOT, etc) in their ops squadrons;

Uh.. ok.

2) Non-ops have spent their entire careers trying to articulate their value to the broader AF. Everyone has an important role to play, but It is more of a stretch that a FSS 1Lt advances the national interests of the US than the officers in the OG. Every CGOM/CGOQ/CGOY/functional awards package requires them to think about and to justify their operational-to-strategic impact that is assumed away by many operators.

Begrudging true.

3) Ops bubbas do not get the same credit for deployed experience. Most non-ops folks have deployed to IZ and Afghan, while many (not all) ops frames supported from bases in other countries. Similar to #2 above, ops records--OPRs & citations--often use MDS-specific language and assume that the reader knows both the mission sets as well as the officer's role in that mission.

And.... you're an idiot.

4) Ops communities have trouble weeding out folks due to ADSCs. Non-ops career fields have more weed-out options due to the shorter ADSC.

See above.

5) Competing for O-4 from a staff billet. Smaller pool of officers for strats/DPs, but their Sr Raters will probably be FO/GOs.

What? Never mind, don't answer.

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Regarding recent O-4 board--higher promo % overall (92), but lower school select % (16).

It was still about the usual 20% school selection - for IPZ Captains. The 16% overall is because there were a sh-t ton more APZ dudes that made major this round that added to the denominator.

zb

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3) Ops bubbas do not get the same credit for deployed experience. Most non-ops folks have deployed to IZ and Afghan, while many (not all) ops frames supported from bases in other countries. Similar to #2 above, ops records--OPRs & citations--often use MDS-specific language and assume that the reader knows both the mission sets as well as the officer's role in that mission.

And.... you're an idiot.

>>> My bad for the lack of clarity. Ops units do not appropriately document deployed experience in reports, dec citations, etc, which is the primary reason for not getting credit. I have read post-CENTCOM AOR reports that do not mention CENTCOM, anywhere in the AOR, what they did, or what msns they supported. The handful of passed-over-for-O4-ops folks that I know were in this boat. Edited by WeTheSheeple
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It was still about the usual 20% school selection - for IPZ Captains. The 16% overall is because there were a sh-t ton more APZ dudes that made major this round that added to the denominator.

zb

Incorrect. Overall, 16.5%. IPZ only, 17.0%. The 73 APZ bubbas didn't move the needle that much.

It amounts to more than 100 fewer officers designated as IDE selects from this board compared with the last one.

This will increase raw numbers and % of candidates going to school (particularly in the '05-'07 Year Groups), assuming that the number of schools slots remains constant (after the 30% reduction a few years ago).

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Incorrect. Overall, 16.5%. IPZ only, 17.0%. The 73 APZ bubbas didn't move the needle that much.

It amounts to more than 100 fewer officers designated as IDE selects from this board compared with the last one.

This will increase raw numbers and % of candidates going to school (particularly in the '05-'07 Year Groups), assuming that the number of schools slots remains constant (after the 30% reduction a few years ago).

Well there you have it. I stand corrected… Hope it does mean a better shot for candidates - at least for the ones that want to go to school.

ZB

Edited by zach braff
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3) Ops bubbas do not get the same credit for deployed experience. Most non-ops folks have deployed to IZ and Afghan, while many (not all) ops frames supported from bases in other countries.

Relevant, because people get to pick where they're sent/staged from.

Edited by day man
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Incorrect. Overall, 16.5%. IPZ only, 17.0%. The 73 APZ bubbas didn't move the needle that much.

It amounts to more than 100 fewer officers designated as IDE selects from this board compared with the last one.

This will increase raw numbers and % of candidates going to school (particularly in the '05-'07 Year Groups), assuming that the number of schools slots remains constant (after the 30% reduction a few years ago).

That is the plan.

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The thing to keep in mind is that there are fewer seats overall. I've heard guys interpreting the shift from 20% to 15% selects as meaning there will be *more* opportunity for candidates to go. ....Realize the shift is being made so that there is *any* opportunity for candidates to go.

All they've done is trick-fuck the numbers so that not every single seat at IDE is occupied by a select. As always, it'll be very very competitive to get picked up as a candidate. And now it'll be more competitive to get designated as a select off the board.

Source on the total number of seats?

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They cut waaaaaay back on equivalency credit this year as well. You can only get DE credit if you are 1) a DE select on your board and 2) did the program during your DE window. What's up with that? Any ideas or RUMINT?

ZB

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All they've done is trick-###### the numbers so that not every single seat at IDE is occupied by a select.

Wasted effort on the trick-fucking; all they have to do is keep chugging along like they are and the bullshit will continue to naturally weed out selects from going to IDE in the form of two big middle fingers combined with a guard/reserve/airline job.

Edited by brabus
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They cut waaaaaay back on equivalency credit this year as well. You can only get DE credit if you are 1) a DE select on your board and 2) did the program during your DE window. What's up with that? Any ideas or RUMINT?

ZB

Basically, it boils down to "Complete", "Select" or nothing are the only things that show on your OSB at a promotion board, thus giving credit is not as important now as it used to be. At least, that was how it was explained during my own experience with gaining credit out of cycle.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Anyone seen the list/have any info on the stats for this latest LtCol board? Been away from my .mil computer.

Don't have all the stats.. but overall 72% promotion rate. As far as AFSOC... the "P" had a promotion rate of 28%....just wow. Also know of one WIC (DG) passed over as well. Guess it's not an O5 patch anymore.

Edited by Chicken
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Don't have all the stats.. but overall 72% promotion rate. As far as AFSOC... the "P" had a promotion rate of 28%....just wow. Also know of one WIC (DG) passed over as well. Guess it's not an O5 patch anymore.

Overall those with only a "P" promoted at 36% across the board

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Here's some more stats I pulled from the promotion list:

1,451 total selects

- 145 were BTZ with school

- 72 were I/APZ with school

- 1,234 were I/APZ

Personally, I'd like to know more about the DP non selects... Is this because SRs are trying to play the system? Or items missing from their promotion folder? I'm sure these guys are good dudes, and we're supposed to have checks and balances to double check that the DPs go to the right people.

-9-

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited by Nineline
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So it's good to be a Mission Support guy with no PME and a DP.

The MSG and no PME qualifiers are red herrings.

Truth be told, it's good to be a line officer with a DP regardless of any other qualifiers (IPZ speaking).

-9-

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited by Nineline
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The "non-select" phone call came Monday. Unfortunately, a Wg/CC DP wasn't enough... But here's a toast to the selects. To those who didn't - To those who did! A round on me...

Were you IPZ? If so, damn, that sucks. Any negative indicators (if you don't mind sharing)--failed PT test in the past, LOR, etc?

Quick math shows me that 58% of those IPZ got DP's...without doing the math for the previous years, I wonder how this compares to the recent past?

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