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Shockingly dismal results in my corner of the AF. Don't remember exactly...something like:

0/11 BPZ (2 DPs--got 1 ea last 2 bds)

3/9 IPZ (3 DPs)--got 2 ea Ps last 2 bds)

0/16 APZ (1 DP)--and 3 were second-time pass overs, and did NOT get continued, they separate or TERA by Dec '14. Previously continued pass overs stayed continued.

-Various rated/non-rated AFSCs on staff, w/2-star SR.

-A couple had negative quality indicators, all IPZ/BPZ had all "squares" filled (IP/EP/CC/AAD/Deployments/Combat/etc)

Define negative quality indicators? Referral OPR, UIF? If so no brainer right? At least they are offering TERA vs nothing.

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0/16 APZ (1 DP)--and 3 were second-time pass overs, and did NOT get continued, they separate or TERA by Dec '14. Previously continued pass overs stayed continued.

Can you confirm TERA for 2x passed over? I understand if NOT continued a DOS is established pretty much as soon as the board is complete (6-7 months out). And I thought an established DOS made one ineligible for TERA.

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Can you confirm TERA for 2x passed over? I understand if NOT continued a DOS is established pretty much as soon as the board is complete (6-7 months out). And I thought an established DOS made one ineligible for TERA.

I got the info 2nd hand...my understanding was this: the board did not select the Majs for continuation, and since TERA is in effect, they got TERA if eligible for TERA. If TERA was NOT in effect, they'd have gotten separated normally.
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I got the info 2nd hand...my understanding was this: the board did not select the Majs for continuation, and since TERA is in effect, they got TERA if eligible for TERA. If TERA was NOT in effect, they'd have gotten separated normally.

I can say for a fact that TERA was offered for twice passed over O4s with 15 years TIS or more and that continuation was not offered. In my case,11S, 99 year group, just over 15 years TIS, spotless record (no adverse action/"negative quality indicators"). If anyone is interested in the particulars of how the process works as it progresses or any other particulars I'm happy to answer them.

Per 1 SOG/CC 8/18 selected in the OG.

Incidentally, if anyone knows of a good FAA medical examiner in the FWB/Navarre area, could you please PM me?

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My calculations put it at roughly $1k/month for a 15 vs 20 year O-4. It takes about 12 years for the 20 year pay total to exceed the 15 year pay (due to the extra 5 years of payments). Those are just rough guesstimates I used when making my decision to apply for TERA earlier in the year.

I noticed they had added a paragraph on the mypers TERA page saying in effect that all twice passed over O-4s would be offered TERA if eligible. Of course, they didn't define eligibility, whether that was the current TERA criteria, or just meaning you have >15 years. I wondered the reason why they added that late in the game (April) and whether they were going to continue or not. I was approved for TERA in April, but had kind of held out hope that this might be a second chance if originally denied, since I was most likely not gonna make it.

Are there reports of continuation being offered to anyone? Sorry to hear about this being implemented for people that really wanted to stay in...can't help the timing!

Edited by Shaft34
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I'm somewhat surprised they didn't offer continuation, specifically since Big Blue had the VSP/RIF/TERA program to get their numbers the way wanted and then would be able to allow the others to continue to 20. Possibly because they didn't want their 'better' people (ie those that did get picked up for O-5) to have a chance to get out early with VSP/TERA?

Also, assuming you got commissioned/went active duty in the early summer, wouldn't just about everyone who was twice passed over have at least 15 years and thus be allowed to retire under TERA?

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I'm somewhat surprised they didn't offer continuation, specifically since Big Blue had the VSP/RIF/TERA program to get their numbers the way wanted and then would be able to allow the others to continue to 20. Possibly because they didn't want their 'better' people (ie those that did get picked up for O-5) to have a chance to get out early with VSP/TERA?

Also, assuming you got commissioned/went active duty in the early summer, wouldn't just about everyone who was twice passed over have at least 15 years and thus be allowed to retire under TERA?

You would think so.. When/if I am passed over, I will have 16 years. My IPZ is next year, and based on some folks that had pretty strong records and didn't get promoted...I don't have much hope. And now it seems we are back to the non-continuation strategy similar to 2011. I just hope that TERA is available in 2016 for my 2 above.. either that or bigblue panics after they realize everyone got out and they promote everyone.

Are there any statistics on non-continuation/continuation? Anything negative on the records or just average joes?

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My calculations put it at roughly $1k/month for a 15 vs 20 year O-4. It takes about 12 years for the 20 year pay total to exceed the 15 year pay (due to the extra 5 years of payments). Those are just rough guesstimates I used when making my decision to apply for TERA earlier in the year.

I noticed they had added a paragraph on the mypers TERA page saying in effect that all twice passed over O-4s would be offered TERA if eligible. Of course, they didn't define eligibility, whether that was the current TERA criteria, or just meaning you have >15 years. I wondered the reason why they added that late in the game (April) and whether they were going to continue or not. I was approved for TERA in April, but had kind of held out hope that this might be a second chance if originally denied, since I was most likely not gonna make it.

Are there reports of continuation being offered to anyone? Sorry to hear about this being implemented for people that really wanted to stay in...can't help the timing!

Checks... I show about $3700/month for 20 and about $2600 for 15.5 yr...

I haven't heard of anyone getting continuation... As you said, timing is everything...

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I noticed they had added a paragraph on the mypers TERA page saying in effect that all twice passed over O-4s would be offered TERA if eligible. Of course, they didn't define eligibility, whether that was the current TERA criteria, or just meaning you have >15 years. I wondered the reason why they added that late in the game (April) and whether they were going to continue or not. I was approved for TERA in April, but had kind of held out hope that this might be a second chance if originally denied, since I was most likely not gonna make it.

This was my exact question all along once all this FM junk came out. No one had a clue/could give me a damn answer. So it's nice to to know AFPC now has it written down somewhere.

Here's to hoping it's available next year at 15-yrs and APZ time! Now... off to call sheppard air about that atp prep...

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Checks... I show about $3700/month for 20 and about $2600 for 15.5 yr...

I haven't heard of anyone getting continuation... As you said, timing is everything...

Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011?

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Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011?

My worthless opinion is that AFPC is going to offer continuation when they need numbers in certain ADSCs, regardless of TERA being offered or not. It's been my experience that AFPC doesn't consider your welfare for strategic planning.
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Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011?

Continuation is at issue on your APZ board...(one above). No sure things at this point, so I wouldn't bank on TERA being offered every year. I believe non-continuation is an easy force management measure. The TERA, I assume, is being offered due to backlash from the last time folks were dumped en mass...

Mikey, VERY interesting! Dispels the theory/rumor that no 99ers were continued APZ. I wonder if we're expected to be short on 11Ms...I thought we we're thin on 11S ISR dudes, but maybe it's not looked at that way...

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I find it interesting the board wasn't pushed back a few months. In my little compcat the O4 and O5 board was moved from its traditional June date and combined with the O6 board in Sept so the boards would occur after a lot of the force mgmt movement.

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Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011?

All of the guys from our wing who were just passed over their APZ to O5 were all given TERA with a NLT 31 Dec 14 date...all 11M. For what it's worth.
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All of the guys from our wing who were just passed over their APZ to O5 were all given TERA with a NLT 31 Dec 14 date...all 11M. For what it's worth.

How many guys are we talking? It is hard to believe the MAF can keep pressing with the huge loss of 11Ms. Not to mention most of these guys were experienced IPs/EPs.

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Mikey, VERY interesting! Dispels the theory/rumor that no 99ers were continued APZ. I wonder if we're expected to be short on 11Ms...I thought we we're thin on 11S ISR dudes, but maybe it's not looked at that way...

Sweet baby Jesus, I might be the only one left! Maybe the fact that I JUST PCS'd might have something to do with my retention. It definitely wasn't my "on track for AETC SQ DO!" push that I got on my last two OPRs (from a real sweetheart).

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How many guys are we talking? It is hard to believe the MAF can keep pressing with the huge loss of 11Ms. Not to mention most of these guys were experienced IPs/EPs.

The outlook for MAF leadership does look bleak, but it seems to me that the damage has been/will be done in a way that our senior leaders will fail to recognize it and do anything about it:

- The lower overall promo rate for pilots of all types is down, from 74.7% in the last board, to 70.3% in this board

- Best I can tell, the promotion opportunity for this board was 75%, whereas it was 85% in the previous board (BPZs & APZs reduced this and last

boards' IPZ rates to 67% & 74%, respectively)

- MAF pilots typically fare worse than those from other MDSs, so the MAF pilot promo rate is likely going to be even worse than the overall

- Throw in the improving outlook in the civilian sector, and many of those the Air Force doesn't force out/encourage to get out through promo boards and force management programs will punch when they hit retirement eligibility at 20 yrs

- The problem is that there will still be enough high-speed MAF types that get promoted and choose to stay in that MAF leaders will remain unconcerned about the health of the leadership pipeline or the ability to fill Joint & HAF staffs. Furthermore, they won't worry too much about having enough pilots overall, since long SUPT commitments will ensure that flying wings/groups/squadrons have plenty of bodies to hack the mission. What senior leaders will likely fail to realize or appreciate is how few experienced senior O-4 and O-5 types will exist in operational staffs, at the Wing through MAJCOM level. Taken together with a rapidly aging and retiring government civilian population where most corporate knowledge resides, this will mean that there will be precious few who know how to translate our leaders great ideas into actionable plans that wings and below can execute

-- The relatively small group of MAF pilots selected for O-5 will, by the time they meet their O-6 board IPZ at 20+ years, will consist almost entirely of bright-and-shiny IDE/SDE types, PME/USAFA instructors (read people who have good deals and are happy to stay where they are) and dead weight (those who somehow got selected for O-5 but contribute little to the mission)

The result will be a MAF community that (from everything the leaders can quantify) will have what it needs: an adequately large pool of future senior leaders and enough pilots to hack the mission.

What, pray tell, do you think TACC is going to look like 5ish years from now? We won't be able to fight our way out of a wet paper bag, because the Baby Boomer generation civilians where most corporate knowledge resides will have retired, the Reservists who came back on active duty will have hit 20 yrs of AD time and retired (or gone back to their Traditional Reserve and airline jobs), the bright-and-shiny types will be too busy going to school and promotable staff assignments, and hardworking/competent/but not promotable beyond O-5 types will have taken their 20 yr retirements and will be walking into airline jobs. The pool of retired MAF Navs (another great source of GS civilian types) will be drying up if not completely dried up, since they've been replaced by avionics.

Bottom line, in the not-too-distant future (if it's not here already--I'm too far removed from the real world), the guys responsible for making leaders' dreams into operationally-executable reality will mostly be a bunch of dead-weight senior O-4s and O-5s . . . aided by a much smaller number of dedicated, competent but grossly overworked O-5s who are trying to keep the ship afloat.

edited to add a little more verbiage

Edited by TnkrToad
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