Lord Ratner Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 (edited) Now's your chance, boys. If there's a zero percent take rate, there will be positive changes....to ADSCs, to bonus rates, to RSAP, to assignment policies, to abominations like TAMI-21. Prove Chang wrong and don't take the bait. Vote with your brain. Your freedom to choose your fate is priceless. Don't sell it too cheaply. "2" The new bonus options prove it works. I'm not so sure this will make a huge change to the take-rate. If, hypothetically, someone who wishes to continue serving is unwilling to sign a five year contract for $25k/year, it seems unlikely they would sign an even longer contract for the same annual incentive. For most pilots in the era of the 10 year UPT commitment, taking the bonus is a proxy decision for staying until retirement. There may be exceptions, but I think for the sake of argument we can say that if a pilot takes the (5 year) bonus, they are planning on retiring. UPT + ADSC = 11-12. + Bonus ADSC = 16-17. Maybe I'm isolated, but the only guys I've seen get out with more than 16 years in were forced or TERA'd. So a pilot who doesn't take the bonus either wants to continue flying for the Air Force but isn't planning to do so for five years, or would like to retire, however wants the option to change that plan should he get a terrible assignment or 365. Why would a pilot in either of those scenarios take a longer bonus? Especially when the value of the annual bonus as a percentage of total annual income decreases as that person makes rank? Retirement is a powerful incentive the closer you get to it. Put a pilot 3 to 4 years away from retiring and most, though admittedly not all, will stick it out to get in the paycheck-of-the-month club. This new bonus squanders that advantage, and may actually do more damage to retention since it doesn't address the reasons a pilot might not take the bonus. If Jane Pilot isn't willing to take a 5-year commitment, she's not thinking about retirement as an absolute, so a 9-year commitment would be even less appealing to her. And if she's smart, she would realize that a longer bonus should be accompanied by a HIGHER annual incentive. There's a reason CDs and auto loans have higher APRs for longer terms. Instead, the Air Force should just double the bonus. 5 years at $50k/year. First it's a good chunk of change, but even better, compared to the old bonus it seems even bigger. Second, it entices the people who were worried about a 5-year extended sentence in the AF without exacerbating their main cause for skipping the bonus. Third, you get those uncommitted pilots to that fabled "final PCS" before retirement, and even after the bonus dries up most will stick it out 3-4 more years for the pension. I get that a higher annual bonus may require congressional approval, or more work of some sort, but after talking to people about why they did or didn't take the bonus, I would submit that it would be better for the AF to change nothing rather than move to 9yrs@$25k. It's been argued here that the bonus only pays people who were staying in anyways. I don't think that's true, but I do think the number of people who were unwilling to commit to 5yrs@$25k but are willing to commit to 9yrs@$25k will justify the increased cost. If for every 1 pilot you convince you pay 10 already committed pilots an extra $100k, thats an effective change of $1 million per pilot; now you're getting into the numbers people throw around when they talk about what a new pilot costs. And yes, I'm estimating that at best this bonus will convince one uncommitted pilot to commit for every 10 that were going to take the old bonus anyways. We'll see next year when the numbers are out. Edited April 2, 2015 by Lord Ratner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Fuck You Air Force. If you are going to offer to pay me $25K/year less than my coworkers doing the same job with the same rank and experience, I'm going to do $25K/year less work. Sorry for those who have to pick up the slack... The Reserve option is looking better, even at 16 years TAFMS. I feel your pain. 12B. My squadron is 42% manned, my sister squadron is 70% manned, and the OSS is in low double digits for manning...yet AFPC RIFed 12Bs last year. No bonus for us either, because we don't have the "F" identifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 stuff So, you did see there was the option to take $25K/5 years or $25K/20 YAS, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Ratner Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 So, you did see there was the option to take $25K/5 years or $25K/20 YAS, right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TnkrToad Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Just curious-- Now that this year's ACP bonus offering has been out for a while & folks are being forced to show their cards, anyone seen/heard any data on take rates thus far? From the anecdotal evidence on this forum (the silence is deafening), I'm guessing the take rate numbers are gonna be grim. I'd love to be wrong in my pessimism, however. I'm sure someone will chime in and tell me to wait 'til Final Jeopardy (late Sep) when the numbers can really change . . . but I imagine most of this year's bonus eligibles have a pretty good idea whether they're staying in or getting out. Is SUPT getting to be like it was in the late 90s, when the IPs spent more time talking about airline hiring than they did teaching students how to fly? For those making the decision, best wishes, regardless of what you choose. TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestar Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The bonus to 20 years nearly doubles the payout for 11Xs. I predict that take rates will be close to historical average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineline Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The bonus to 20 years nearly doubles the payout for 11Xs. I predict that take rates will be close to historical average. It nearly doubles the payout, but you gotta serve nearly double the commitment. Also, the bonus is to 20 years of aviation service, which for most folks is 21-22 years of total service and means that the 9 year bonus will make people serve longer than necessary for retirement. -9- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestar Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I'd like to see the number of 5-year bonus-takers who made it to 16 but didn't stick it out to 20. My guess is that nearly all bonus takers rode it out to 20. So yeah, a 5-year taker could get out at 16, but who does that? I'm sure it happens, but that's leaving a lot of money on the table by skipping out on the cliff pension. I'm in a fortunate position because 20 YAS takes me to 20 years 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooseAg03 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 You started pilot training 2 months after your EAD date? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineline Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) I'd like to see the number of 5-year bonus-takers who made it to 16 but didn't stick it out to 20. My guess is that nearly all bonus takers rode it out to 20. So yeah, a 5-year taker could get out at 16, but who does that? I'm sure it happens, but that's leaving a lot of money on the table by skipping out on the cliff pension. I'm in a fortunate position because 20 YAS takes me to 20 years 2 months. I know a few passed-over majors that were offered full-time guard or reserve jobs for units that were standing up or switching airframes, and those that could jump ship at 16 did to take advantage of that. As an added bonus, most if not all of those guys pinned on O-5 after leaving AD and will get the same AD retirement. -9- Reason for edit: Misinformation Edited April 23, 2015 by Nineline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeloDude Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 And unless you commissioned and completed pilot training in 2 months, you're mistaken. The "years of aviation service" clock begins when you finish UPT, not when you start it. Hopefully you weren't a Whiting/Corpus guy who took 2-3 years to finish UPT. -9- Negative. It starts when you went on AO's...first day you started UPT. Ask your HARM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herk Driver Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Negative. It starts when you went on AO's...first day you started UPT. Ask your HARM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineline Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Negative. It starts when you went on AO's...first day you started UPT. Ask your HARM. You're right, I stand corrected. Note to self: YAS is different from years of rated service as defined in 11-402. -9- Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StealthDriver Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) This rant is meant for those who are thinking of staying in 20years and plan to either fly airlines or have airlines in mind as a backup post retirement.... It still boggles my mind how $25k per year could be the least bit appetizing to anyone...especially in this current environment. Hell, by the time you factor in taxes, your are getting as much as your son or daughter could make with a part time job at McDonalds. What a freaking joke. Another bit of food for thought is that (unless you played your cards right and are a millionair by the time you retire as a LT Col) you are going to still need to work. Based on current retiring Lt Cols, about 70% of them, maybie more are going airlines, or at least trying. What does this mean? Well it means that they either planned from the begging to go airlines or had it as a backup because they realize they still need to work. So let's say that stays the same, that means about 70% of us will be looking to do the same in 10 years. Sooo, either way, most of us will still need to work. With the current hiring boom, if your plan or back-up plan is to fly commercial post retirement as a means of maintaining your financial quality of life, why the heck would you not get out as a young guy now? The wave has arrived and the front side of that wave is going to stick around for 3-4 years or so. It just makes sence to be at the beginning of that hiring spree. The biggest stress you will have in the commercial world is how many numbers are behind you. Seniority is THE issue. Doing so gets you that seniority that you will not have should you wait 10 years from now. The guys that are taking these commercial jobs withen the next 2-3 years are going to realize that their decision to punch was probably one of their best financial decisions they've made. When their buddies show up to the same Airline at age 45 kicking the tires as retired Lt Cols that took a $25k/yr bonus while the one who didn't is now a Captain it will be interesting to see who's quality of life is better at that point. It would take that dude probably to age 55 maybie 60 just to hit Captain! Also, the dude who punched is looking at a 30 year Airline retirement vs the other dude who is looking at a 15yr. The difference is HUGE (sts)! And the set income of an AF Retirement doesn't come close to what you would have made by putting in 30yrs with an Airline. As it stands today, if your plan is to do airlines after 20years AD, your going to have missed the hiring wave, you will be older, you will still need to work, your standard of living will be higher, your kids will be in college, you will have probably done at least one 365 away from your family, you will be joining an airline and flying the crappy lines as an FO to pay your dues to climb the ladder all while being older and your body not as swift to recoupe had you done it when you were 33yrs old and the hiring wave was cush, you will be tired, it will take you forever and a day to make Captain because by the time you do you will be forced to retire at age 65, 10 years from now you will be looking at your buddies FB profile pics who punched and you will be kicking yourself, you will have PCS'd at least 2-3 more times for the Air Force, one of those moves will probably be right smack in the middle of one of your kids high school years and they will hate you (ok, maybe not hate)...all for $25k per year before taxes...what a joke. Don't sell your sole for this last ditch effort that AD AF is trying to get you to bite off on...Their mismanagement and apparent attempts to fix the situation is nothing more than a slap in the face to good aviators and good people who deserve much better treatment. It's not about the money...never was. Anyone else see this as well? Maybe it's just the beer talking ;) Edited April 23, 2015 by StealthDriver 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bender Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) ...all for $25k per year before taxes...what a joke. It's not about the money...never was.Apparently, for you, it is now...and that's okay. The Air Force is doing a lot of things wrong, and a lot of things right. You need to go ahead and do what is right for you; I'm glad you know what that is. Go ahead, finish your beer, and stop telling me what the fuck to do. Bendy Edited April 23, 2015 by Bender 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeloDude Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 You're right, I stand corrected. Note to self: YAS is different from years of rated service as defined in 11-402. -9- Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No problem man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StealthDriver Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) Go ahead, finish your beer, and stop telling me what the to do. Bendy #1. I will finish my beer #2. Stay classy brother Edited April 23, 2015 by StealthDriver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guineapigfury Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 StealthDriver, I get where you're coming from. But each pilot's decision is his own. As far as the millionaire thing, I think i can make it. My situation is far from ideal: i'm in debt right now due to a recent divorce and i expect to get passed over for major this year. If i take the devils money, i need to bank the signing bonus and an additional 50k per year and get about a 7% return on my money per year to hit 7 figures. Certainly doable. I've got no kids and i don't plan on having any, so that helps. I don't like my job (mq-9s) but i will like being retired in my mid 40s, sitting on a beach in Thailand with a drink in my hand enjoying $75k+ in retirement income (pension + investments) and never working another day in my life. Technique only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 You expect to make 75k a year from retirement after being passed over for major? I'm not a math major, but... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestar Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Stuff Strange level of vitriol on this one. I get being jaded, but jeezus. You started pilot training 2 months after your EAD date? Wow. Indeed, was fortunate to get slammed 4 months early into a drop-down spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 You started pilot training 2 months after your EAD date? Wow. Shortest I know of is 12 days after EAD, but that was many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skitzo Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 1 month. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeloDude Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Shortest I know of is 12 days after EAD, but that was many years ago. Me and a lot of my buds all started within 3+ months of our EAD. So if the AF needs me to serve an extra 3 months past 20 to get an extra $75-100K for something I was going to do anyway, then why not? As someone who has little to no desire to fly after the AF (whether rotary or fixed wing), I appreciate the guys who are getting out and the AF having to throw more money at the rest of us to try and solve their problem. This also should make it a 'little' bit easier when competing for O-5...but who knows. As for all the guys serving their commitment and wanting to punch for the airlines, I wish them the best of luck and thank them for their courage and service. If my goal was to fly for the airlines then there's no way in hell I would stay in past the 11-12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirkDiggler Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 14 days for me. No rhyme or reason why...every other dude I knew at the time did a year casual. Stealth driver, I think most people who decide, like me, to stay are aware of the missed opportunity for seniority and decide to accept it. I know that doesn't make sense to you for the reasons you stated. The problem with your argument is that you're comparing 9 extra years in the AF and 9 years working at an airline as if they're completely equivalent except for the money/seniority. Money is important and a huge motivator, but there are so many other variables at play. Guys are fairly confident they're not going to go broke in either profession, so other QoL issues become priorities. I have several core reasons I stayed, and money was not very high on the list. Really. I'm one of the few guys who truely enjoys my job, the people, the lifestyle and the benefits (...not just the financial ones). I assessed that my (and my families) quality of life and happiness would take a significant hit if I went to the airlines at the 11 year mark, so to me it was a no-brainer to stay and keep doing what I love to do versus someing that appeals to me only to pay the bills. I'll most likely pay a monetary penalty for that later, and that's fine. My kids will still have food on the table. You mention the benefits of spending 30 years of your life at an airline, except there's a problem: I don't want to spend 30 years of my life working at an airline. If you do, good on you. If that's a better option for you than your experience in the AF, press. Enjoy. But I think it's shortsighted to assume that everyone that wants to do airlines wants to do it for 30 years or that the driving factor for decisions to stay in/get out are money/seniority. As most guys have stated before, the fundamental flaw in the bonus is that the majority of guys taking it were going to stay anyway. So again, I think it's a little melodramatic to say that bonus takers have "sold their soul" or are staying, literally, for an extra 25k a year. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViperStud Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 I love how a lot of dudes that punch complain about the leadership/management on AD and about how the patch or WG/CC can't process why people don't want to follow the exact path they did... Then after they punch and get another job (ie, airlines), they preach that anyone is stupid for not following the exact same path they did... Pot, meet kettle. Just sayin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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