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So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.

I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 

so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?

And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right? 😉

 

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Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.
Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.
The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.


I think the idea is to flatten the curve to buy time, which if used properly to build up testing and acute care capacity, allows you to move back into the “containment” phase where you can quickly identify new cases/clusters, and isolate before they cause exponential growth.

Gradual reintroduction of social freedoms could be applied along with improved testing and treatment, to essentially play “whack-a-mole” as cases pop up until a vaccine is developed.

The article (written by a mathematician, not an epidemiologist or virologist) only makes a passing reference to those changes, noting that they should be specified in modeling (which I would think they are if you look into the 1s and 0s of the inputs to the models).

The main thesis (deferring spikes if social distancing is the only factor in the model) is valid but doesn’t acknowledge broader strategies.
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48 minutes ago, herkbier said:

So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.

I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 

so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?

And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right? 😉

 

Getting on the back end of the curve, with less new cases and deaths per day. Having rapid testing everywhere to clear people back to work. Maybe a decent treatment program (anti-malaria drugs, antibodies, etc). Probably partial openings, restaurants/bars are screwed for a while longer, schools are done till August. Vaccine is at least a year out.

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So April 30 is the new date.. I feel like we are setting ourselves up for failure and/or disappointment.
I learned once upon a time that event/phased based operations are more effective than time based operations.. I’m relatively certain there are more than a few DLOs to that effect.. 
so.. What is the event based trigger (expected to occur on April 30th) Trump/Fauci/whoever is looking for so we can ease restrictions?
And.. what do those eased restrictions/guidelines look like? I assume they have a plan, right?
 

This is just a rolling ETIC anyway you slice it.
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My uneducated opinion? The next event based trigger probably would be X ventilators on hand, plans to surge ICU and in-patient care (alternate locations and staffing), and rebuild our stock of PPE for medical workers.

At least rebuilding the stock of PPE should allow at least outpatient surgeries/procedures to resume. However, the supply chains seem to have taken a big hit, with a lot of production happening overseas, and producing countries holding on to their production to help at home first before exporting.

I've got family in the medical field. My brother (anesthesiologist), said his hospital has already gone from changing their respirator for every patient (prior to the whole COVID-19 problem) to "here's your one respirator, keep it in your locker when you go home, make it last as long as you can." And that's across the board at his hospital, not just for COVID-19 patients, and there's no approved procedure to sterilize/disinfect the respirator (since it's supposed to be a one time use item). It'd be like the AF saying "OBOGS is good, there's only a small risk of physiological incidents, so press on..." except grounding the fleet is off the table, there can be no safety stand down, and in fact, ops tempo is expected to surge for the foreseeable future, crew rest is waived, so suck it up.

A nurse catching COVID-19 means they're out for 14-30 days, and each day they are out means 6-10 patients that day can't be supported (or 2-3 ICU patients). I'd imagine the number is roughly the same for doctors. So keeping them healthy (through triage, deferring care that can be deferred, and proper PPE) keeps them in the fight, not just for COVID, but for any procedure that can't be deferred.

Right now, we are just delaying the big fight until we can mass our forces appropriately. However, just like in war, it doesn't really matter if we win battles now if we don't have the logistical support to sustain the fight and win the war. So hopefully we are using this time now to appropriately mass our resources and not get caught with our pants down when the fighting starts in earnest.

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3 hours ago, pawnman said:

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.

Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.

The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

The other advantage of flattening the curve other than what’s already stated is the effect of herd immunity, which is more effective if you already have a population of immune people.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, pawnman said:

Sure... But you're only flattening the current curve.  There will eventually be a spike, and that spike will almost certainly outpace medical readiness no matter how long we wait.

Couple that with all the medically necessary but non-urgent procedures (removing tumors, replacing hips, reconstructing shoulders, etc) being cancelled and you've got a real fun time when both bills come due together.

The article even suggests we're going to make it worse by pushing the spike into November and December, when it's colder, people are already more vulnerable, and there's a lot more demand for gathering and travel than March/April.

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

Edited by Seriously
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5 minutes ago, Seriously said:

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

Been watching that model for a while, it's probably one of the best ones around.  You can see each individual state via the pull-down menu at top.  Some are quite scary! 

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6 hours ago, Seriously said:

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

Perhaps, but it'll only be the top until we start relaxing social distancing again.  At some point, people will have to be allowed out of the house... And when that happens, there will be another spike in positive cases.

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Perhaps, but it'll only be the top until we start relaxing social distancing again.  At some point, people will have to be allowed out of the house... And when that happens, there will be another spike in positive cases.


Again, buying time could get us back to, and remain in, a containment phase.

I’m not a huge fan of relying on non peer-reviewed articles written by non-experts on the webs but if that’s your jam, here is another Medium article describing how a broader strategy would play out after a hard-core mitigation phase.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

And here’s a published, peer-reviewed piece on how cities who cracked down hard and fast during the 1918 pandemic rebounded faster economically than those who resisted tough restrictions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

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Huh, an 0-6.
CINCPAC from CMDR ROOSEVELT
AM IMMEDIATELY TAKING SAILORS OFF THE SHIP TO QUARANTINE.  ALL MEASURES TAKEN FOR SECURITY AND DISINFECTION OF SHIP.
HAVE NICE DAY.

Well in standard pentagon tradition, the one who goes against the machine gets removed from command


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351


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12 minutes ago, the g-man said:


Well in standard pentagon tradition, the one who goes against the machine gets removed from command


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351


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Article just has the "loss of trust" boilerplate stated as the reason he was relieved.  Presumably because he went public with his request for assistance?

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22 minutes ago, the g-man said:


Well in standard pentagon tradition, the one who goes against the machine gets removed from command


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

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He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

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All, 

  Just a general info note, but with so many people out of work due to the COVID situation, food banks are getting overwhelmed by the vast increase in unemployed people needing food.  Most of the regulars on here (including me) are pretty lucky to have stable government employment/paychecks.  Great way to help out your local community is donating to your local food bank if you’re able.

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46 minutes ago, Stoker said:

He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

This.

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2 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Big Gray/Green/Blue does not like to be embarrassed.

 

And just a reminder you are just an expendable number.

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1 hour ago, Stoker said:

He knew he was getting fired the moment he sent that letter. Which, IMO, makes him the kind of person you'd want to be in charge.

Probably found out his next assignment was some desk in the Pentagon in a windowless room. Fell on his sword for his sailors.

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3 hours ago, Orbit said:

Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

Yeah, this.  Sounded like it wasn't so much the fact that he sent the letter asking for help.  That was OK.

Everything I've read makes it sound like they guy sent it via unclassified channels, to his boss on the To: line and everyone and their mother on cc:  That's what got him fired.

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14 hours ago, Orbit said:

Uhh it is kind of a big deal to discuss readiness when it comes to such a large strategic asset. 

IMHO, the main strategic asset on aircraft carriers are its aircraft: Can US Aircraft Carriers still launch aircraft (particularly fixed wing jets) while sitting idle - pierside/minus 75/% of its crew? If not - then maybe they should've launched all their aircraft while the carrier was still at sea/underway (to relocate these assets to a useful location/airfield) before the carrier docked and the crew was overrun by COVID-19.

Latest photo/USS Theodore Roosevelt docked in Guam; 

Navy commander relieved of duties, suspected of leaking memo ...

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