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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)


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The vaccine, which is being rolled out in a national immunization program that began Dec. 20, was 89.4% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a copy of a draft publication that was posted on Twitter and confirmed by a person familiar with the work.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/pfizer-biontech-shot-stops-covid-s-spread-israeli-study-shows

I hope this is right because it changes the conversation about the vaccine. I think you could convince quite a few people to get it if they knew they could safely see their high risk family members again without transmitting it. 
 

I know my families behavior will change significantly once my in-laws and my kid’s nanny’s 2d doses take full effect. 

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These horror stories of police arresting people on the beach or dragging people out of church are way overblown.  The media is going to over-report anything that will get views and outrage--similar to

The Crozier situation has sparked many illuminating conversations up and down the chain.  No, we don’t know all details but the core issues ring true to anyone who has experienced mid-level authority

You went from making a reasonable point to saying religious people should all get together and give themselves coronovirus because they’re stupid.  Not sure why or how you made this leap, but maybe yo

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The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....

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8 hours ago, Alpharatz said:

The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....

"Fatal role"?

People like you are ubelieveable.  "The virus is 99% survivable".

"This vaccine which has had 2 deaths in millions of cases is playing Russian Roulette!"

 

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The fact that the lab rats are self selecting for a variety of roles in this grand experiment should make for excellent research results down the line...Not often that subjects will volunteer for a possibly fatal role in a great medical/sociological experiment like Covid.. The conclusions may very well save a lot of lives the next time.. We shall see....


Research results mean nothing if you never apply that research. Whether it's too expensive, or requires a large population to take an action that may not benefit them directly in the short term.

Also, a very interesting effect happens with how you frame decisions. Freaking the decision as a 99% chance of living after infection causes a different decision making process than framing it as a 1% chance of dying. (The effect is more visible if you slide the percentages, say 80/20. Like a doctor telling you you have an 80% chance of surviving surgery is different than them telling you you have a 20% chance of dying. Both are factually correct, but they could elicit different responses because of how the information is framed). It's why some people enjoy skydiving, while some will never try it even if it's free to them-it comes down to how they handle risks and decisions.

What makes it challenging is when decisions if others impacts your decisions and outcomes. With a 99% chance of living after infection, it's perfectly rational to say it doesn't matter at an individual level, live your life how you want, no masks, travel, etc, since your odds are good. (Yes, I'm ignoring the issue of getting infected, but recovering with longer term issues). But it causes problems for society at large.

If a society is able to limit the spread of a disease (for example let's say to 3 million people, or roughly 1% of the US population), at 1% death rate, that's 30,000 people who died. But if spread is not contained and everyone gets it, 1% becomes roughly 3,000,000 who does from it. Same percentages, but vastly different practical outcome.

So the challenge is for the society/countries to trade off individual risks and actions against broader social/national risks and actions. Especially in more individualistic countries, and where travel between cities/states is common.
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1 hour ago, TreeA10 said:

He is the top paid Federal Employee in the government and I have no idea why.  Seriously, you could pay me half of what he makes, which would be half of $416,000, and I'll make stupid decisions and save the government money.

Commentator Matt Walsh recently pointed out that Fauci is now very famous and will soon be rich, if not already.  He is in the spotlight and has millions of people listening to him.  Nobody knew his name a year ago.  That all happened to him overnight.  He’s not going to willingly give any of that up now that he has it.  He’s done the second he declares COVID a thing of the past.  It’s in his best interest to keep this going as long as he can. 

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He is the top paid Federal Employee in the government and I have no idea why.  Seriously, you could pay me half of what he makes, which would be half of $416,000, and I'll make stupid decisions and save the government money.


Basically pro pay for certain government employees, particularly doctors. Throw in the fact that he's got 50+ years of government service, and is the head of a government agency, so roughly equivalent to GO/SES pay scales as a starting point.

Have to pay to recruit and retain talent, especially with highly skilled/educted professions.

Your strategy sounds just like why the AF kept the pilot bonus so low for so long, and have a retention problem.

If you're outraged about Fauci's pay, are you also outaged that the highest paid state employee in several states is a football coach?

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6 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Why do we listen to this fool?

he’s been wrong on everything. No accountability and no one ever challenges him on his bull shit  

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Neither supporting him or poopooing him, but to be fair, your three articles are from early 2020 when nobody knew anything about COVID and what it was or how it was going to spread. Now, has he been right?  Dunno...the “we may be wearing masks into 2022” thing has me pissed off though. North Dakota’s total infections and daily positive rates have dropped and stayed low even a month or more after the state mask mandate wasn’t renewed, and we were a hotspot over the fall. 

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12 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 


Basically pro pay for certain government employees, particularly doctors. Throw in the fact that he's got 50+ years of government service, and is the head of a government agency, so roughly equivalent to GO/SES pay scales as a starting point.

Have to pay to recruit and retain talent, especially with highly skilled/educted professions.

Your strategy sounds just like why the AF kept the pilot bonus so low for so long, and have a retention problem.

If you're outraged about Fauci's pay, are you also outaged that the highest paid state employee in several states is a football coach?
 

 

I have no problem paying people what they are worth. I have a problem paying people more than they are worth.  130,000 federal employees make more than the governor of Pennsylvania who makes @ $196K per year. I'm sure some of those federal jobs require skills and knowledge above and beyond what is required of 1 of 50 state governors. Let's say we need 30,000 people smarter and more knowledgeable than 50 state governors. Why do we need the other 100,000?  

 

@42 of 50 of the highest paid state employees are football or basketball coaches. The other are heads of medical or law schools. Yes, I think it's stupid to pay them ridiculous salaries BUT if their performance brings in $ to the state at least you can justify the cost. 

 

Fauci doesn't appear to bring solid or consistent decision making skills to the table to justify his oversized influence or salary. 

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I have no problem paying people what they are worth. I have a problem paying people more than they are worth.  130,000 federal employees make more than the governor of Pennsylvania who makes @ $196K per year. I'm sure some of those federal jobs require skills and knowledge above and beyond what is required of 1 of 50 state governors. Let's say we need 30,000 people smarter and more knowledgeable than 50 state governors. Why do we need the other 100,000?  
 
@42 of 50 of the highest paid state employees are football or basketball coaches. The other are heads of medical or law schools. Yes, I think it's stupid to pay them ridiculous salaries BUT if their performance brings in $ to the state at least you can justify the cost. 
 
Fauci doesn't appear to bring solid or consistent decision making skills to the table to justify his oversized influence or salary. 


Well, as an AD major on the pilot bonus, I make $191k/year, and that's ignoring the tax advantage of BAH or any tax free months (though I'm also living in a high BAH area).

At best, I'm an average officer, though you could make the case I'm below average since it took me 2 tries to make major. Is my salary/bonus justified?

I get you don't seem to like Fauci, or at least disagree strongly with his advice. But he seems to be well respected within the medical community. He's also only an advisor on pandemic response-governor's can do what they want (ref Florida). What would you say he's worth being paid? An immunologist makes about $285k on average in the DC area accordingly to salary.com. How much extra should a doctor get paid if they also are in a senior leadership/managerial role?
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08Dawg,

fair point. He’s changed his tune many times and early on I’ll give him the benefit. 
 

however this is from sep 20. He is the boy who cried wolf, and he never comes on the news to update his predictions. Just continues to preach his doom and gloom when the facts clearly show otherwise. 
 

 

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Well, as an AD major on the pilot bonus, I make $191k/year, and that's ignoring the tax advantage of BAH or any tax free months (though I'm also living in a high BAH area).


You weren’t kidding about living in a high BAH area. For another data point, my LES says my 2020 entitlement was $183K for an 18+ yr AD O-5 also on the bonus.

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25 minutes ago, Day Man said:

maybe because of his warnings?

I don’t know he hasn’t been asked that. That’s my point. 
 

also why are the places with lockdowns doing worse than places without them? CA vs. FL?

he praised NY and dogged FL but the results are inverse. 

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1 hour ago, Day Man said:

maybe because of his warnings?

Yes, we are pre-supposing that hardly anyone listens-to or follows his advice.  Or, I guess, think he is a reliable source.

You've seen some numbers somewhere which highlight his effectiveness?

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15 minutes ago, GrndPndr said:

Yes, we are pre-supposing that hardly anyone listens-to or follows his advice.  Or, I guess, think he is a reliable source.

You've seen some numbers somewhere which highlight his effectiveness?

are you implying that you don't follow his advice, while simultaneously criticizing his effectiveness?

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11 minutes ago, Day Man said:

are you implying that you don't follow his advice, while simultaneously criticizing his effectiveness?

To be fair, effectiveness as a leader includes getting people to follow you. I digress. 

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3 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

To be fair, effectiveness as a leader includes getting people to follow you. I digress. 

To be fairererere, right or wrong, he wasn't in step with his boss.  The Wg CC was saying/doing one thing while the OG cc was doing/saying the opposite.

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7 minutes ago, uhhello said:

To be fairererere, right or wrong, he wasn't in step with his boss.  The Wg CC was saying/doing one thing while the OG cc was doing/saying the opposite.

Tough spot, for sure, but then you question the effectiveness in the role as a senior advisor. But then you have to consider that an executive branch leader has to weigh many factors (generally speaking, separate from whether Trump did it appropriately) whereas a doctor advisor on public health is roughly always going to be incredibly conservative to doing everything to try saving as many people as possible without regard to other factors. 

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The 50 Millionth vaccine was administered today in the U.S.  With 30 million confirmed US cases we are approaching 1/3 of the U.S. population that is likely protected.  The overall U.S. infection rate continues a steep downward trend (although there was a bounce two days ago.)    There is a projected huge increase in vaccine production and delivery that will that will provide another 140 million doses in the next five weeks.  Also, on Wednesday the FDA approved Johnson and Johnson's single does vaccine which is already being shipped for distribution.  If the states can continue to accelerate shots to arms we will have immunity in 70% of the U.S. population by the end of April and the entire U.S. population by the end of June.

My Baseops epidemiology degree predicts the infection rate will continue to plummet while the calls to reopen everything will grow much louder. 

 

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To be fair, effectiveness as a leader includes getting people to follow you. I digress. 
Yes, he's the head of a federal agency, but that agency doesn't have the ability to force the public to do anything. NIAID is focused on research.

He's on the staff for the COVID task force, not leading it, or implementing/enforcing recommendations for the general public. He makes recommendations, but ultimately, it's on the president (or governors) to lead, and implement/enforce policy.

It's like getting angry at a Capt/Maj AO for a decision a wing/CC made; it doesn't make sense.
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