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4 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Understand your concern but that math doesn't follow you logic.I read an interesting study yesterday...short version = of the 238,000 U.S. deaths 9300 were normal healthy people that had no underlying health issues. 

Do you happen to have a link to the 9300 healthy people deaths article or source? Not that I disagree with you, it just seems high. 

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3 hours ago, jazzdude said:

Pretty sure this is driven by business decisions. Hospitals don't want to be way overstaffed, or purchase (expensive) equipment they won't use. This goes for for-profit and non-profit hospitals. So they forecast out demand, and staff and purchase equipment according to the capability they plan to provide.

Hospitals can surge (do more with less... sound familiar?), but who knows for how long. They are accepting more risk (more patients per provider/nurse than typical, longer days, having COVID positive but asymptomatic healthcare workers continue working until they physically can't). Just like the AF and the pilot shortage, there's been a shortage of doctors and nurses, and both have a long lead time to add to the workforce, and their management probably isn't much better than ours. So it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

This checks with what I have seen. I've learned that hospitals will typically run 80-90% full in November and December due to people taking care of issues (i.e. surgeries)  before their deductible resets. But a bunch of knee replacements is a different patient population than a bunch of COVID positive patients. 

The hospital I work at has a solid surge plan, and contingencies on top of contingencies, but if individuals don't change their behaviors we will be overrun. Much like AF leadership assuming there will be a pilot in the seat when needed, the public assumes there will be a bed for them if they get sick. It's true right this minute but it's might not be true in a few weeks. 

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10 hours ago, herkbier said:

Do you happen to have a link to the 9300 healthy people deaths article or source? Not that I disagree with you, it just seems high. 

I think it was NY Times and I am out of free views...I certainly won't support that paper.  I do have an older story from the NY Times saying the same thing (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html)

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22 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

9300 were normal healthy people that had no underlying health issues. 

The two most common causes of death due to a flu shot are anaphylaxis and Guillain-Barre Syndrome, and from the information given by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) it is possible to work out an approximate number.

 

Interestingly enough, whenever I see stories that have pictures of "healthy" people dying from Covid, they are all massively obese. Maybe that goes along with the whole "large is beautiful" movement, but I digress.

Sure, the probability of death from a vaccine are low, but what of other potential effects that we have absolutely zero knowledge of?

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15 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I think it was NY Times and I am out of free views...I certainly won't support that paper.  I do have an older story from the NY Times saying the same thing (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html)

IF you're on a normal browser you can use "private" or "incognito" mode and get some more free views.

That's your cyber tip for the day!

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5 hours ago, VMFA187 said:

Interestingly enough, whenever I see stories that have pictures of "healthy" people dying from Covid, they are all massively obese. Maybe that goes along with the whole "large is beautiful" movement, but I digress.

Sure, the probability of death from a vaccine are low, but what of other potential effects that we have absolutely zero knowledge of?

Well, obesity is a co-morbidity.  Just because someone has a co-morbidity doesn't mean they couldn't have had a much longer life.  I have a quite a few, some I'm working on, some I got cursed genetics on.  My line generally survives until about 70 without medical intervention, with it..Dad's probably going to get into his mid-80's.  To hand wave a possible COVID death off for me with "co-morbidity" isn't a honest way to look at it.  I think that's the same for a lot of the folks out there. 

What I've read more was pregnant women late in term having miscarriages, and at least here in UT there's some strange syndrome hitting some of the kids that get it.

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18 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I think it was NY Times and I am out of free views...I certainly won't support that paper.  I do have an older story from the NY Times saying the same thing (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html)

If incognito doesn't work, disable javascript - there's a chrome extension. Works like a charm on NYT. $0 spent.

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Heard some rumors from someone connected to HAF/A1 today that USAF is at historically high retention due to COVID and voluntary seperation programs are being considered for FY21 to meet end strength. No hints as to career fields or what the bonus will look like. 

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3 hours ago, FLEA said:

Heard some rumors from someone connected to HAF/A1 today that USAF is at historically high retention due to COVID and voluntary seperation programs are being considered for FY21 to meet end strength. No hints as to career fields or what the bonus will look like. 

Ah yes, the old “if you recognize the impending dumpster fire we’ll pay you to leave” trick. Sun Tzu and Clausewitz were both huge advocates. Check and mate.

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Heard some rumors from someone connected to HAF/A1 today that USAF is at historically high retention due to COVID and voluntary seperation programs are being considered for FY21 to meet end strength. No hints as to career fields or what the bonus will look like. 
Thought I saw somewhere that rated retention didn't improve despite the pandemic...

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Thought I saw somewhere that rated retention didn't improve despite the pandemic...

The shoe clerks are staying in. I know a LOT of shoes that haven’t had to go to work for months and so their 30 min of email from home each day while getting a paycheck.

Pilots, maintainers and others actually still have to work. But I know a lot of pilots who aren’t separating as covid dashed their airline plans.


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The only people I’ve seen that didn’t change their separation plans were ones with a reserve job lined up down the hall. And that was because they had a sim job across the street lined up. 
 

I don’t believe for a second that rated retention is the same in 2020 as it was in 2019. 

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I am a perfect example of COVID induced retention. I created over 20 YOS this fall and planned to retire this month. Obviously, for a guy who wants to fly still the job market is bleak.

Now I’m trying to decide if I should take another assignment to get into multi engine aircraft before the airlines start hiring, whenever the hell that might be.


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Another COVID retention here. Had a CJO, TR job, and a sep date all lined up very neatly. CJO got turned off and I was luckily able to turn off the separation. Signed the bonus and now gonna try and stay til 15 years and then give the airlines another try and then see if I can get 5+ years of AGR somewhere and still fish out an AD retirement.

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52 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

Another COVID retention here. Had a CJO, TR job, and a sep date all lined up very neatly. CJO got turned off and I was luckily able to turn off the separation. Signed the bonus and now gonna try and stay til 15 years and then give the airlines another try and then see if I can get 5+ years of AGR somewhere and still fish out an AD retirement.

Are we the same person because damn that sounds familiar.

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1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

vaccines on the way. this will be over by spring.

With two big caveats:

1. If we can get it manufactured and distributed quickly.

2. If we can get people to take it. 

I'm pretty confident on the first point but not so much on the second. There should have been national education campaign this summer to explain to the American people how we know the vaccine is safe and effective. I've done an informal survey of my coworkers and maybe 50% are willing to get the first round of vaccines.  

If those two things happen I bet things get back to normal pretty quick. COVID has proven that Zoom can't replace all business meetings and people really miss traveling. I feel terrible for all of my UPT classmates that had training dates at the majors lined up then got COVID'ed and hope it gets back to normal quickly. 

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1 hour ago, Snuggie said:

With two big caveats:

1. If we can get it manufactured and distributed quickly.

2. If we can get people to take it. 

I'm pretty confident on the first point but not so much on the second. There should have been national education campaign this summer to explain to the American people how we know the vaccine is safe and effective. I've done an informal survey of my coworkers and maybe 50% are willing to get the first round of vaccines.  

If those two things happen I bet things get back to normal pretty quick. COVID has proven that Zoom can't replace all business meetings and people really miss traveling. I feel terrible for all of my UPT classmates that had training dates at the majors lined up then got COVID'ed and hope it gets back to normal quickly. 

Rogan had NICHOLAS CHRISTAKIS on the other day again.  Lots of good info.  Distribution isn't so easy due to super refrigeration requirements.  Will be interesting the level of manufacturing/logistic power behind this.  He also isn't seeing a return to "normal" until 2024...............

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1 hour ago, Snuggie said:

With two big caveats:

1. If we can get it manufactured and distributed quickly.

2. If we can get people to take it. 

I'm pretty confident on the first point but not so much on the second. There should have been national education campaign this summer to explain to the American people how we know the vaccine is safe and effective. I've done an informal survey of my coworkers and maybe 50% are willing to get the first round of vaccines.  

If those two things happen I bet things get back to normal pretty quick. COVID has proven that Zoom can't replace all business meetings and people really miss traveling. I feel terrible for all of my UPT classmates that had training dates at the majors lined up then got COVID'ed and hope it gets back to normal quickly. 

2. Count me as a hard no for #2. If you all haven’t heard about it, Moderna and Pfizer are using genetic therapy/modification technology that has NEVER been used for a vaccine (believe it’s called CRISPR) ever before. Most currently approved vaccines use attenuated or dead virus cells to create an immune system response. Modified RNA (mRNA) used in these two new COVID vaccines will reprogram (essentially changing targeted parts of your DNA) cells to produce Covid and Covid like proteins/enzymes/etc...Add to this, it’s the first vaccine that hasn’t had trend data for at least 3-4 years to verify safety before approval for use. Moderna also hasn’t produced a single vaccine in the past. I’m not a doctor/biologist/virologist, but I’d encourage all of you to not take my word for it. Check it out on a search engine besides google. I’ve seen I Am Legend, doesn’t seem like a great idea to me.

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52 minutes ago, GoodSplash9 said:

2. Count me as a hard no for #2. If you all haven’t heard about it, Moderna and Pfizer are using genetic therapy/modification technology that has NEVER been used for a vaccine (believe it’s called CRISPR) ever before. Most currently approved vaccines use attenuated or dead virus cells to create an immune system response. Modified RNA (mRNA) used in these two new COVID vaccines will reprogram (essentially changing targeted parts of your DNA) cells to produce Covid and Covid like proteins/enzymes/etc...Add to this, it’s the first vaccine that hasn’t had trend data for at least 3-4 years to verify safety before approval for use. Moderna also hasn’t produced a single vaccine in the past. I’m not a doctor/biologist/virologist, but I’d encourage all of you to not take my word for it. Check it out on a search engine besides google. I’ve seen I Am Legend, doesn’t seem like a great idea to me.

If you’re serious, then no. These vaccines do not change or modify your DNA. They do not use CRISPR. Will Smith will not be aimlessly driving a GT500 in an empty NYC.

They use mRNA that is processed by the ribosomes (and subsequently destroyed) to make antigens, that then spur the bodies to make antibodies. I get being apprehensive about new tech in vaccines, but let’s keep the misinformation to a minimum.

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7 hours ago, Snuggie said:

I've done an informal survey of my coworkers and maybe 50% are willing to get the first round of vaccines

Same here, among co workers and neighbors. I’m honestly surprised that high of a percentage is willing to get it. 

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6 hours ago, brabus said:

Same here, among co workers and neighbors. I’m honestly surprised that high of a percentage is willing to get it. 

I'm surprised that all the people saying "the virus isn't a big deal" and "99% of people who get it survive" are reluctant to get a vaccine.

I mean...the other additives are basically the same as for the flu shot or MMR vaccine.  So the only novel part is the Covid-19...which is really survivable for anyone who is relatively young and in good health.

But then...there's a pretty big overlap in the population that believes masks infringe on their personal freedom and the anit-vax, "I never get a flu shot because you just get the flu anyway" crowd.

I'll be first in line for a Covid-19 vaccine if it means seeing my extended family on holidays again, having live sports and concerts, having in-person parties and group events, etc...

Quote

Rogan had NICHOLAS CHRISTAKIS on the other day again.  Lots of good info.  Distribution isn't so easy due to super refrigeration requirements.  Will be interesting the level of manufacturing/logistic power behind this.  He also isn't seeing a return to "normal" until 2024..........

The flu shot also needs refrigeration...yet we somehow manage to distribute that to millions of people every year.  Refrigeration is not an insurmountable obstacle...Hell, it's not even a difficult obstacle.

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1 hour ago, pawnman said:

The flu shot also needs refrigeration...yet we somehow manage to distribute that to millions of people every year.  Refrigeration is not an insurmountable obstacle...Hell, it's not even a difficult obstacle.

-80 degrees C (colder than dry ice) is not your standard refrigeration obstacle.

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