COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[skybert 40]

On 4/13/2020 at 9:48 AM, ryleypav said:

As a Michigan resident, I will say, our Governor may over overstepped her bounds. Sure. Not going to argue that point. However, there are many people who just dont bother to read the legislation and spread misinformation to the masses. All of a sudden people are shouting out how its now all of a sudden illegal to buy seeds and have a garden. Turns out, if you actually read things, you can most definitely buy seeds and lawn/garden equipment from a store so long as it isn't over 50,000 sq-ft (i.e. Menards or Lowes where people stand around in the garden section for days on end). So any local hardware store is fine. The use of motorboats seems to be the big point of contention here. While I agree its a touch to far, I get it too. I went flying the other day and there were probably 200+ boats out on the Bay fishing. At that point in time, so long as everyone in the boat was from the same house, you were fine. I know for a fact that many were not following this. On the same note, that is 200+ people going to the gas station and 200+ people going else where to get supplies. I believe that same train of thought is applied to industries like Lawn care, and golf courses here in MI. The activities themselves can be done in isolation, but not the preparation.

I live in Michigan as well,  our governor has gone well beyond executive power

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by skybert

[jazzdude 431]

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

[brabus 1,583]

6 hours ago, jazzdude said:

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

You clearly haven’t had a personal connection to the small business world. People aren’t losing their livelihood because they’ve planned poorly. Additionally on the big side of the house,  corps don’t run with billions of cash reserve because it doesn’t make sense. They would not be profitable if scrooging away money was their aim. Not to say there aren’t companies out there who have fucked it away, but in general the economic impact is in large not due to how businesses have ran. 

[FLEA 692]

Got my stimulus check today. Honestly I feel like I hit the jackpot being in the military right now. Nice to be working, getting paid, and still get free money on the side. 

[Homestar 881]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Got my stimulus check today. Honestly I feel like I hit the jackpot being in the military right now. Nice to be working, getting paid, and still get free money on the side. 

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

[HU&W 829]

Just now, Homestar said:

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

It’s an additional credit, paid in advance. 

[Homestar 881]

1 minute ago, HU&W said:

It’s an additional credit, paid in advance. 

For now. 

[HU&W 829]

Just now, Homestar said:

For now. 

All the tax rules are written into the legislation for it.  They were pretty clear, and it would be politically untenable to directly reverse it. 

[Homestar 881]

The legislation also requires that the SBA grant me a $10,000 refundable advance on my EIDL loan within three days. I’m still waiting. I guess I just don’t trust the government to do what they said they’d do. 

[Scuba 3]

Speaking of SBA.  Have any small business owners, independent contractors or self-employed persons had success with the paycheck protection program?

[GrndPndr 67]

2 hours ago, Homestar said:

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

I think the invoice to the taxpayer will likely be spread out over several years tax returns.

[Homestar 881]

1 hour ago, Scuba said:

Speaking of SBA.  Have any small business owners, independent contractors or self-employed persons had success with the paycheck protection program?

Speaking for my situation, not yet. My state has also not yet made unemployment insurance available to self employed, like the Act says they will. My guess is that the state is hoping that if they delay enough the crisis will pass before they have to pay out any benefits. But that’s probably overly cynical of me. 

[jonlbs 38]

2 hours ago, Homestar said:

The legislation also requires that the SBA grant me a $10,000 refundable advance on my EIDL loan within three days. I’m still waiting. I guess I just don’t trust the government to do what they said they’d do. 

SBA just sent out an update email this morning with a little more info but still muddy. It's $1000 per employee so only $1000 for the self employed. But I still haven't heard anything solid and honestly am not counting on it to come to fruition for me either.

Texas has made unemployment available for us contractors but it is so over tasked that it is nearly impossible to get a claim through (phone since online isn't equipped for contractors). Would love to get some help with the reduced hours but by the time I'm able to get my claim approved everything will be back to normal.

On the bright side, $1200 dropped into the account today 🤑

[Prozac 663]

12 hours ago, jazzdude said:

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

Really? Because they weren’t saving up for the rainy day that was an unprecedented shutdown of the entire global economy? Sure, this thing has shined a light on some questionable practices (stock buybacks anyone?), but now is not the time to go all Ayn Rand. No business or household could be reasonably expected to be fiscally prepared for what is currently transpiring. 

[Homestar 881]

2 hours ago, jonlbs said:

SBA just sent out an update email this morning with a little more info but still muddy. It's $1000 per employee so only $1000 for the self employed. But I still haven't heard anything solid and honestly am not counting on it to come to fruition for me either.

Texas has made unemployment available for us contractors but it is so over tasked that it is nearly impossible to get a claim through (phone since online isn't equipped for contractors). Would love to get some help with the reduced hours but by the time I'm able to get my claim approved everything will be back to normal.

On the bright side, $1200 dropped into the account today 🤑

Got the same from the SBA today.  $1,000 is about 7 days of work....  Better than nothing, but just barely.  

I'll be looking into PPP now.

[Homestar 881]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

Really? Because they weren’t saving up for the rainy day that was an unprecedented shutdown of the entire global economy? Sure, this thing has shined a light on some questionable practices (stock buybacks anyone?), but now is not the time to go all Ayn Rand. No business or household could be reasonably expected to be fiscally prepared for what is currently transpiring. 

I don't think that the nature of business was unhealthy (like it was in 2008 in the mortgage industry).  It doesn't make sense (unless you're Apple) to carry billions of dollars in cash, and it certainly isn't feasible for small business to carry enough cash to weather a 2 month (or longer) government mandated shutdown.  That businesses are failing isn't the fault of the business....it's because the government made these business unable to operate.

[Seriously 183]

On 4/2/2020 at 4:48 PM, Seriously said:

These next 2-4 weeks will be interesting to watch (I hope I'm not saying that again next month). 

Some projections have the US topping out somewhere towards the end of April, but that assumes full social distancing.  I'm obviously an old man now because I want to kick all of the spring breakers in the ass who are ignoring the social distancing requirements. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Looks like we're flattening it. Hoping we're done with this shit by the middle of May.

[FDNYOldGuy 162]

15 hours ago, jazzdude said:

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

Here's an excellent article (with super informational links and rabbit holes to run down) by Harvard Business Review (penned Jan 7th this year) that explains a huge part of exactly what your takeaway is.

BLUF: companies have been taking on massive amounts of "cheap" debt in the low interest rate environment we've lived in to buy their own stocks back and pay out dividends over reinvesting in R&D, paying higher wages, expanding workforces/manufacturing, etc.

Little true "value" has been created, but prices have been driven up as capital flocks to the stock markets to chase returns. Which feeds back to the cycle of PE ratios, debt, and stock prices all increasing without there being much true growth. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

The emperor has no pants, IMHO, and COVID was a catalyst to help show that. Which it did...until the Fed stepped in (and WAYYYY overstepped their mandate) by buying...everything...to prop prices up.  

[Bigred 158]

Control yourself before you try to control others. If you have a disease or have an immunodeficiency, it’s on you to avoid situations that puts you at risk.

Case in point, saying it’s irresponsible for 200 boaters to be on the water while ignoring the hundreds of people at Wal-Mart sorta defeats the argument. I’m more at risk being near the fat fvck hacking in the cereal aisle than I would be if I was on my Bassmaster 3000. Hell, if you’ve never been fishing on a lake before, boaters typically get pissed if you’re closer than a 100 yards from their fishing hole. 
 

My bigger point, I can get behind barring gatherings in a place like a movie theatre, or sporting events. When you start telling people they can’t go hiking, by themselves, or can only exercise within a few hundred yards of their house, we’ve officially reached Ludicrous Speed. 

[FLEA 692]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/a-post-from-germany/

I'm living in Germany right now. I thought some people would be interested to know the civil Rights discussion is not exclusive to the US right now. 

I would like to accept that isolating the immuno compromised is a doable strategy but the more I run it through in my head, it really isn't. If my wife is immunocompromised, I would still have to go to work, buy groceries, take the kids to school, etc... Her chance of catching the virus is the exact same as mine now. If my probability goes way up because we open the flood gates than so does hers. Furthermore, because normally healthy people will flood the hospitals with what is still a very severe sickness for many younger people, when she does get sick, she will possibly be denied care on the basis of resource availability, all but ensuring her fate.

I like many others on here find the erosion of civil rights concerning but as I eluded to earlier, we live in a country that cares more about how that bitch Carol Baskins hid her husband's body than pathogenic precautions. I'm not saying I have a right or wrong moral answer to this, it's a plague. Anyone who is naieve to think we can get through something like this with minimal suffering is wrong. People are going to suffer. Our only choice as a society is who will bear that suffering and how. 

 

[skybert 40]

11 hours ago, Scuba said:

Speaking of SBA.  Have any small business owners, independent contractors or self-employed persons had success with the paycheck protection program?

Not me.

[billy pilgrim 161]

12 hours ago, Homestar said:

You’ll pay it back on your 2021 tax return. There’s no free lunch. 

The next generation(s) will pay it back.  Whether they want to or not.

The panic in the media feels orchestrated, over reaching and unnecessary.

The social media reaction to all of this is what scares me the most.  The acceptance of curfews, ridiculous restrictions and just general “the government knows best” attitude.

That’s what is truly scary, and I have immediate family in the high risk category for this.

[HU&W 829]

5 hours ago, Bigred said:

When you start telling people they can’t go hiking, by themselves, or can only exercise within a few hundred yards of their house, we’ve officially reached Ludicrous Speed. 

And when you start arresting people for peaceable assembly for the redress of grievances to the government, we’ve gone from safety to power.  

According to the Raleigh NC police department, “Protesting is a non-essential activity.”  The protesters were requesting that the their state decriminalize their ability to work and provide for their families  

https://mobile.twitter.com/raleighpolice/status/1250111779574894594

[BashiChuni 1,058]

Wow

[ThreeHoler 814]

SECDEF announced the STOP MOVE would be extended to an as yet undecided date.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app