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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)


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7 minutes ago, GKinnear said:

We're all trying to pace ourselves at my location...I've got an Airmen who's single luckily caught up in his PCS to a NATO assignment. All his goods were shipped the day before the STOP MOVEMNT order dropped. At least we're in a small housing market so his house hasn't sold yet and he's banking per diem. 

This is my hell, right now (literally the exact same situation with HHG).  We're rolling in an AirBnB until it we're cleared to go.  Demand is down for lodging at the moment, so that's a positive we have going for us right now.

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8 minutes ago, war007afa said:

This is my hell, right now (literally the exact same situation with HHG).  We're rolling in an AirBnB until it we're cleared to go.  Demand is down for lodging at the moment, so that's a positive we have going for us right now.

That suckssss.  If it's any consolation I'm "essential personnel" enroute to more training so I'm still cleared to PCS.  All I have to do is figure out how to make that happen when no one answers their phones because every base agency is working from home.  

Edited by Pooter
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On 4/13/2020 at 3:55 PM, FLEA said:

One thing I've caught is people keep throwing the mortality rate of 1-2% around still. I went to look it up yesterday on google and the actual mortality rate is above 6% globally now and over 3% in the US. That's a pretty big difference no matter how you look at it. 

I think it's also understated that even healthy younger people who survive the virus often recieve permanent or lasting lung and cardiovascular damage from it. That's going to become an increasingly important issue, especially for many on this forum that turn 40 when theyll be required to pass an annual ekg. 

 

There is a zero percent chance the mortality rate of this thing is 3%. We have crappy data on the actual number of deaths, and effectively no data of the number of asymptomatic/resolved cases. 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

 

13% of a semi-random sample were infected without symptoms. Extrapolate that out and NYC alone has one million asymptomatic cases, or five times what the entire state is reporting. That means at the epicenter in the US the death rate is 1% or lower. Everywhere else will be even better.

 

This thing is going to be about as fatal as the flu (my guess), but it's much more contagious than the flu, and everyone is getting it all at once. We definitely needed to do something to mitigate the risk. But we did nothing, then we did too much. 

 

Face masks for everyone who goes out in public, six feet social distancing, including tables at restaurants, no public gathering like concerts and sporting events, and keep the high-risk people at home. That probably would have been enough, but we panicked and didn't allow the social distancing measures to take effect before locking everything down. TJ Maxx, where no one gets within 6 feet of each other usually, is closed while grocery stores, where people are all over each other, are open.

 

We did not have to erase 3 months of wealth creation, but we did. At least it will be a great time to invest or get a mortgage, if I don't get furloughed. But worse, because the "experts" were too afraid to admit they just didn't know (death rate of 3.4%), because they felt the need to bend the truth to influence behavior ("masks don't really help, so let the health professionals have them"), we will leave this crisis with yet another reason for many people to not trust trained professionals, and to not trust science. Pity. 

 

Another one added to the list. Global warming, global cooling, acid rain, peak oil, overpopulation, nuclear holocaust, zika, Y2K, the food pyramid, satanic cults, COVID-19. 

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46 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

13% of a semi-random sample were infected without symptoms. Extrapolate that out and NYC alone has one million asymptomatic cases, or five times what the entire state is reporting. That means at the epicenter in the US the death rate is 1% or lower. Everywhere else will be even better.

The Theodore Roosevelt might be a good "Case" study on this subject. Here's the latest stats;

"Of the 585 cases on Roosevelt, about 400 were found to be asymptomatic."

“What we’ve learned, certainly in the Navy, is that with regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, the surgeon general of the Navy" - stated.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/14/950-sailors-now-have-covid-19-2nd-uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailor-in-intensive-care#more-75435

 

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On 4/13/2020 at 1:06 AM, arg said:

Got two full freezers, one for pork and the other for beef that we raised here on our place. We make our own bacon, corned beef and pastrami, plus we render the pork fat to make lard. Wife still buys chicken though, however we are getting enough eggs from ours for our needs. Where was I going with this....oh yeah I don't think our pork has the virus.

Edit, picture of bacon

IMG_1159.jpg

Yes! Yes! Yes! I know pic takes up space, but it’s glorious Bacon. Arg has it right. Self sustaining, if not close to it. Preparing Prime Rib right now, store bought but still a nice cut. Everyone else bought the Chicken out and ignored the Prime Rib at $6 a lb. Guess I’ll eat the Prime(s) x 4 for two weeks, too lazy to thaw my chicken. Thx Arg, that’s living - some will say it’s bad for us but we all pass and there’s nothing like being a carnivore. Sorry, derailed there - But it’s Bacon!

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Sure, we can argue about Kung flu mortality rates.  Is it 3%  Is it .01%?

We can b1tch about frozen PCS and money lost and families inconvenienced.

We can commiserate about our comrades who had their deployments extended.

But dammit, THIS is serious:

https://movieweb.com/top-gun-2-maverick-release-date-delay/

 

Oh, the humanity...

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38 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

curve flattened.

back to work.

stop trampling on the fucking constitution.

image.png.e1be3a45031d03d5c875e1cb3e07668e.png

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

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12 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

image.png.e1be3a45031d03d5c875e1cb3e07668e.png

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

It's funny how we get discouraged when people arm chair general military matters but so many of us are willing to do the same with a health issue. 

 

In other news, I realised service secretaries have the power to extend bonus pay (I think up to $1000/mo) to individuals who are deployed more than 180 days a year as a result of unforseen circumstances. It would sure be nice if someone forwarded that up the staff to compensate all those Bros and broettes taking one for the team right now. 

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17 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

image.png.e1be3a45031d03d5c875e1cb3e07668e.png

I mean hey, nothing like declaring victory right away at the first sign of hope! I can't see any historical precedent where that didn't work out...

In all seriousness, let's follow the science & the recommendations of public health experts and implement a conditions-based plan for how we can lessen some of the temporary restrictions without needlessly getting more people killed. That doesn't exactly fit on a bumper sticker but it's the best way to move forward.

Everyone wants to get back to normal, but I for one don't want to do so at the cost of thousands more American lives who would otherwise live if we act more cautiously. Let's ensure the virus is truly beaten back and ultimately defeated via better treatments for those who get sick & effective vaccines for everyone else.

we were sold on these drastic measures to "flatten the curve" and not "overwhelm" our healthcare system.

that's been accomplished

now let's get to it. or do you keep moving goal posts around?

 

people die every year of the flu. people will die of this virus. it sucks. but its not an excuse to wreck our economy, take away constitutional rights (ie Raleigh police), and FORCE people to stay in their house

Edited by BashiChuni
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So what is the desired outcome now that we’ve ramped medical supply production and flattened the curve?

We don’t have a vaccine. That means at least 80%* of the population needs to become infected to develop her immunity.

Places that don’t have subways or huge events like Mardi Gras are less likely to spread.

*Unsure if 80% is the precise number.

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Ed Yong has done some fantastic writing over at The Atlantic about the, “What next?” question. I recommend both of these pieces.

Start here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Latest here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/

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10 hours ago, waveshaper said:

The Theodore Roosevelt might be a good "Case" study on this subject. Here's the latest stats;

"Of the 585 cases on Roosevelt, about 400 were found to be asymptomatic."

“What we’ve learned, certainly in the Navy, is that with regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, the surgeon general of the Navy" - stated.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/14/950-sailors-now-have-covid-19-2nd-uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailor-in-intensive-care#more-75435

 

This is great news. If we find out that *way more* people are infected than we thought, then it's not as deadly, and the curve is a lot flatter than originally suggested.

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9 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is great news. If we find out that *way more* people are infected than we thought, then it's not as deadly, and the curve is a lot flatter than originally suggested.

Interesting you say that. 30-50% of patients tested at the Chicago Roseland hospital already have the antibody.  https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

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