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Merle Dixon

Happy 2019! May your exit dreams come true!

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Well, this year it really starts to start - the airline retirement wave. The next 10 years will see the largest airline pilot retirement surge in civil aviation history. May all of your escape hopes and dream come true.

 

FREEEEEEEDOM!!!!

-William Wallace (the Braveheart guy).

Edited by Merle Dixon
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I'm sure there are way more accurate retirement numbers than this, but here are some literal bar napkin scribbles that a friend recently ginned up based off APC numbers (so typical caveats apply).

 

IMG_6983.jpg

Edited by Hacker
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2019 plan is to hire 910.

Here are the projected class dates at AA. 
2019-1 8-Jan 
2019-2 22-Jan 
2019-3 5-Feb 
2019-4 19-Feb 
2019-5 5-Mar 
2019-6 19-Mar 
2019-7 2-Apr 
2019-8 16-Apr 
2019-9 30-Apr 
2019-10 14-May 
2019-11 28-May 
2019-12 11-Jun 
2019-13 25-Jun 
2019-14 9-Jul 
2019-15 23-Jul 
2019-16 6-Aug 
2019-17 27-Aug 
2019-18 10-Sep 
2019-19 24-Sep 
2019-20 8-Oct 
2019-21 22-Oct 
2019-22 5-Nov 
2019-23 19-Nov 
2019-24 3-Dec 
2019-25 17-Dec

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5 minutes ago, di1630 said:

How long is typical airline training?


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6-8 weeks for the training footprint unless there are some wait times for sims or something else. Sometimes OE can take a while to schedule/finish, which can add up to another month depending on the efficiency. If it’s a mil leave consideration, consolidation (100 flight hours) also has to be done in the first few months, otherwise you have to redo training. Both of my airline training footprints (as well as an aircraft transition) were a little less than 2 months, and I had a few couple/3 day breaks mixed in. Avg’d couple weeks break before OE, and OE took a couple weeks due to timing out and not getting the 25 hours (the min required) in the initially scheduled trips and having to reschedule. So about 3 months total. Then about 1-2 months to get consolidated. Ymmv. 

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I've just completed my 7th transition course.  Started academics Nov 12th and completed sim training on Dec 7th.  There is also some training done via iPad before I started the academics.  Nothing terribly difficult.

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All good points, though I'd say there's some rumblings of slow down this year, recession talks (my personal prediction is by 4th Qtr calendar 19). That may temper hiring. Of course the retirement numbers are what they are, so that natural attrition should keep everyone well safe from the F word. Much better setup than the Lost Decade, to say the least. I'd say between late 2016 and the end of 2019 (maybe the Fall) is the first apogee of a double wave of hiring.

I think things will cool off through 2020, then pick back up again in a couple years (wrt hiring). If I was in that race, I'd probably secure a Guard/Reserve position, or some form of mil leaving that regional work, until things picked back up, if you get caught without a chair through the slow down. If my PM inbox is any indication these days, folks are worried about this slowdown, when they come asking about the ARC in the context of the airlines and jumping ship. Don't shoot the messenger.

Other than that, the advice is still to punch, and I agree with that advice as a generality.

Edited by hindsight2020
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I'm sure there are way more accurate retirement numbers than this, but here are some literal bar napkin scribbles that a friend recently ginned up based off APC numbers (so typical caveats apply).
 
IMG_6983.jpg.bac19d07bc1198c72144c2b880d401ef.jpg
AA has almost 15,200 pilots on property right now. APC is wrong.

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16 hours ago, FlyArmy said:

6-8 weeks for the training footprint unless there are some wait times for sims or something else. Sometimes OE can take a while to schedule/finish, which can add up to another month depending on the efficiency. If it’s a mil leave consideration, consolidation (100 flight hours) also has to be done in the first few months, otherwise you have to redo training. Both of my airline training footprints (as well as an aircraft transition) were a little less than 2 months, and I had a few couple/3 day breaks mixed in. Avg’d couple weeks break before OE, and OE took a couple weeks due to timing out and not getting the 25 hours (the min required) in the initially scheduled trips and having to reschedule. So about 3 months total. Then about 1-2 months to get consolidated. Ymmv. 

Weekends off?

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4 hours ago, billy pilgrim said:

Weekends off?

If the breaks happen to fall on weekends yes...but generally no. At least not at my two airlines. 

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21 hours ago, di1630 said:

How long is typical airline training?

At two different airlines my training footprint was ~90 days.  That's from start of indoc until off OE and flying the line.  

4 hours ago, billy pilgrim said:

Weekends off?

Unlikely for training.

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13 hours ago, Gazmo said:

AA has almost 15,200 pilots on property right now. APC is wrong.

(hence why I said, "based off APC numbers (so typical caveats apply)"

Their numbers for FedEx are wrong, too, but they're ballpark close enough to see relative sizes of the pilot groups, as well as the significance of the retirement numbers compared to those ballpark sizes.

That's what the "typical caveat" is.

Edited by Hacker
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AA has around 14,815 pilots including those on various leaves.  The company only updates the seniority list once a year in July, hence the difference in numbers, while the union updates it monthly.  

Other recent news...

8 Jan class will have 48 new hires

A new vacancy bid is about to post in 2 weeks.  It’s supposed to be the largest number of openings for Group 4 CAs/FOs, Group 3 CAs/FOs, and Group 2 CAs since the merger in 2013.  This should create a ton of movement.  If things continue on the present course, we could possibly see G4 FOs/G2 CAs with 3-3.5 years on property in late 2020/early 2021

 

 

 

Edited by Firstname.Lastname@AA.com
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Let's say you are getting ready to start terminal leave and the day after your terminal leave ends, you start with the reserves/guard.  Is there a standard final out kind of thing you have to do with mpf that last week prior to terminal leave starting?  Meaning, can you fly Mon-Fri that last week of active duty, then go on terminal leave for 30 days prior to starting the reserves/guard?  

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There are many wickets to run thru to both leave AD and gain into the guard/reserves. 

None are cosmic .... but you’re not gonna figure them out nor jump thru them in the last week before terminal leave. 

Start early. Start often. Get scrolled. 

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From The Pilot Network on FaceBook:

FedEx bid 19-01 will close this week.  Ramifications for wannabes is open vacancies on about all seats...757, 767, MD-11, 777, HKG 767 and CGN 757s.  New Chief pilot reportedly indicated he wants to push to make the Personal Endorsement program carry a bit more weight than it currently does.  Hiring is currently pretty robust.  

You DO NOT have to be ace of the base these days to get an invite to FedEx.  I am seeing plenty of under 35 corporate and regional types as well as the standard mix of military pilots.  

Update your apps.  Call your sponsors.  Review your applications again for errors and omissions.  Word is we need 500-600 more pilots in the next 18 months.  I've been at FedEx since 2002, and I've never seen our hiring as aggressive at is was this last year.  

Keep the faith and good luck to all....

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FedEx is probably still the best flying job there is if you want to see the world, fly the nicest jets, and make the most money doing it. Also by far the best job to commute to.

American is hiring nearly every goddamn mil pilot they can get their hands on. Pretty sure they should just send HR reps to the TAP class and just hand out class dates at this point, because it would save them a lot of trouble. Also has the most movement.

Delta's still hiring a lot but not going bonkers like they were 4 years ago. But apparently those numbers show they're due for another run in a few years. Great options on the narrowbody/SNB side and domestic operation making a ton of money, but not a great option if true widebodies are your goal.

United is hiring a lot but still has yet to hit their peak. Definitely the place to be if being a fat lazy widebody pilot (least amount of energy expended per dollar earned) is your dream job.

And SWA, who has the slowest movement and only one fleet type. Yeah it's a great gig, but I personally don't see the appeal unless she's the only girl at the dance who'll even give you the time of day.

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On 1/14/2019 at 5:34 PM, joe1234 said:

FedEx is probably still the best flying job there is if you want to see the world, fly the nicest jets, and make the most money doing it. Also by far the best job to commute to.

It's also probably the best job for doing as little as possible if you don't mind living in base.  I've been bidding afternoon reserve for the last 6 months and I've only been used 4 times.  And, I'll make enough that I'll owe more in taxes this year than I made as an O-4 my last year of active duty.  

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On 1/10/2019 at 10:43 AM, isuguy1234 said:

Let's say you are getting ready to start terminal leave and the day after your terminal leave ends, you start with the reserves/guard.  Is there a standard final out kind of thing you have to do with mpf that last week prior to terminal leave starting?  Meaning, can you fly Mon-Fri that last week of active duty, then go on terminal leave for 30 days prior to starting the reserves/guard?  

Palace front, should acquire you into the ANG/AFRC, it takes months so one week would be, tough

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That’s a trap if I’ve ever seen one. If... then maybe...

“Hey man if you let me bang your wife, I may be able to hook you up with Kate Upton.” -AFPC


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I think that’s a valid request. Pull the retirement and get a good deal. What’s the issue? If the assignment doesn’t go thru, retire.

I get the feeling AFPC isn’t pulling shady shit these days because the PR nightmare via social media has swift blowback.


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