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Merle Dixon

FY 18 ACP take rate?

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5 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 


How’s that workin’ out for ya?

 

Not great

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Curious to see where the take rates end up for the year.  I wish they'd filter out the old folks like me who just took a second bonus because it gets me to 20 and retirement. The only real number that matters is how many pilots took a bonus and remained after their initial UPT commitment was up.

The annual rated manning report is always interesting in how they try and spin the pilot exodus numbers. This year I'm sure it will all be glowing pats on the back for how they've stabilized pilot numbers and actually increased by a few. Not really a success when you're still down 2K pilots for the total force.

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Last update that I saw had it right at 40% and that was posted last week. The bomber/rescue/rpa folks are the ones who are bumping that number up some. The rest are all in the 30% range.  

1 hour ago, Hunter Rose said:

Curious to see where the take rates end up for the year.  I wish they'd filter out the old folks like me who just took a second bonus because it gets me to 20 and retirement. The only real number that matters is how many pilots took a bonus and remained after their initial UPT commitment was up.

The annual rated manning report is always interesting in how they try and spin the pilot exodus numbers. This year I'm sure it will all be glowing pats on the back for how they've stabilized pilot numbers and actually increased by a few. Not really a success when you're still down 2K pilots for the total force.

As for if that shows the ones who took it again I don’t know. I do know that when the FY starts is takes into account all who are eligible in that FY. 

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40 minutes ago, BroncoEN said:

When do the take rate polls close and the finally tally released? 

Normally after the window closes, which was the end of this month, but it was extended to mid Sep. Even so, rumor has it that fixed wing pilot take rates are expected to remain in the 30s.

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I think it's safe to say that the majority of that 30 some odd % represents the dudes and dudets who have very little interest in flying airplanes as a career and eat that command/staff $hit up for lunch. We probably won't see the number drop much more, but it is still 30% less than what they'd like it to be.

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I guess put me down in the minority. Signed the bonus this year since I've just got 7 more years to go to retirement, and have made the decision to push for retirement. Probably going to be a terminal major, so it's refreshing as the VML comes up to focus on finding some interesting flying vs trying to play the game.

It's still interesting work, and the flying is still good. Plus life's much better when you stop caring about promotion and just try to make what you can better while notching the BS.

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On 8/31/2019 at 1:22 PM, jazzdude said:

I guess put me down in the minority. Signed the bonus this year since I've just got 7 more years to go to retirement, and have made the decision to push for retirement. Probably going to be a terminal major, so it's refreshing as the VML comes up to focus on finding some interesting flying vs trying to play the game.

It's still interesting work, and the flying is still good. Plus life's much better when you stop caring about promotion and just try to make what you can better while notching the BS.

Why not join the guard and do all that plus get promoted?

While on active duty, I saw too many passed over bros (or even just dudes not on command track) get tagged with undesirable assignments and/or remotes. 

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Why not join the guard and do all that plus get promoted?

While on active duty, I saw too many passed over bros (or even just dudes not on command track) get tagged with undesirable assignments and/or remotes. 



I did consider guard/reserve. I know the last decade has been great (anecdotally) for getting AD orders making getting an active retirement feasible. But there's always the risk that that pot of money dries up.

Tricare and joining the check off the month club were also desirable, with a known end date to achieve it.

But the chance to see and do different things was also a strong draw for me. I think I've been fortunate to have what I think were some interesting opportunities, and the ability to move on before getting ground down and unhappy with what I was doing. Plus I don't really see people beating down the doors to go to the assignments I'd like to go, so it may be a win/win for the AF filling a billet and me getting to do something I'd like to do.

I guess the risk I take is if I don't make O-5 and the pilot manning crisis for my year group magically fixed itself and continuation isn't offered.
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The ART to AGR conversions in AFRC are just getting started, and should be in full-swing within 12-24 mos.  As an AGR, you'll see identical pay/bennies - and still be eligible for the 35K bonus, plus AD retirement at your 20 year point.  Lots of info myPers, just sayin'.

https://www.afrc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1755395/chief-of-air-force-reserve-approves-changes-to-the-active-guard-reserve-program/

Edited by ROCK 10
Link posted, meant to say the program/vacancies are now more visible and accessible via MyPERS
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On 9/6/2019 at 11:25 AM, ROCK 10 said:

The ART to AGR conversions in AFRC are just getting started, and should be in full-swing within 12-24 mos.  As an AGR, you'll see identical pay/bennies - and still be eligible for the 35K bonus, plus AD retirement at your 20 year point.  Lots of info myPers, just sayin'.

 

Just getting started? The ART2AGR conversion has been ongoing for many FY now in AFRC; I wouldn't consider it a "beginning of the wave" thing in the least.

If anything, depending on how the airline hiring chills or not in 2020 when the recession hits in earnest (imo), the window for AGRs will quickly close as people panic and flock back to the unit as full timers, or remain in place (from the ART demographic) and flow into the conversion. Nevermind the new hire TR/DSG airline guys who would want to avoid that day job until relative seniority movement restarted in earnest. Their biggest QOL detractor as junior airline guys has never been the paycut; it's the schedules that does it, especially as commuters generally unwilling to move to high COL junior domiciles. Especially so for the non-DINK and/or non-empty nester households.

So don't dilly dally too much on the AGR calculus, you could find yourself sucking hind teet. The big difference between now and the Lost Decade is the furlough insulation. Today you're gonna have a job, it'll just be an unenviable schedule compared to the koolaid the guys who got hired circa 2014-2016 have been on wrt airline life and "career expectations". Certainly unenviable from my perspective as a lower-paid but homesteading AGR. To each their own type of thing. 

Again, I only speak for my experience in the AFRC. I don't know if the NGB side has a different timeline on these conversions. By all indications the Guard has been tail gunner on the bonus and TR incentive pay fronts compared to us in the AFRC. To be clear, hardly a reason to prefer AFRC over a non-TFI Guard unit, but just mentioning it for the sake of a complete picture. Good luck to all.

 

Edited by hindsight2020

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