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Merle Dixon

FY 18 ACP take rate?

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The lower numbers initially reported all include the second eligible people who didn’t take too many bonuses. If you filter to just the initial eligible then you get these “green” numbers which are still “red” since the goal is 65% retention.


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1 hour ago, Merle Dixon said:

Wow! Much better than I thought. I was betting on a 6.9% take rate.

Smaller sample size, so every bonus taker increases the percentage by disproportionate amount.

Time will tell if the rates stay that high in a "normal" year group.

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https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2018/09/05/the-army-is-making-progress-on-fixing-its-pilot-shortage-so-its-turning-the-focus-on-maintainers/

Interesting “atmospherics” from our Army aviation counterparts.

“So, we are short pilots, just candidly speaking,” he said. “I mean, we are under our authorization for aviators, most predominantly seen in the AH-64community.”

For the past year and a half, flight school has upped the number of training spots to meet the shortfall, he said

But, he added, “you can’t fill the void with just accessions because then six, eight years later you would have a relatively inexperienced force.”

So the Army can see the problem with producing away the shortfall... huh.

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Geez, we’re being outsmarted by the Army? No offense Lawman...


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1 hour ago, MooseAg03 said:

Geez, we’re being outsmarted by the Army? No offense Lawman...


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It’s not really lack of aptitude in the AF as much as willful deception/negligence. We’re being out integrity-ed. 

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That article simultaneously argues that fighter pilot take rate improved while at the same time the overall number of bodies decreased by 40%.  It didn’t improve at all - the eligible YG was decimated by TAMI/VSP/Low Drop rates and a lot of people that are left already fought pretty hard to stay.

I have seen below average officers in that YG be told that they are going to be 2BTZ or GP/CCs just based on attrition.  “There’s already only 6 of you left, sooooooo we basically have to promote you.”

This article is another example of messaging being what you make of it.  And I’m excited for the Air Force to start claiming that they have turned the fighter pilot retention problem around when they just retained 50 less pilots than they did last year.

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If the pool went down to 3 and 2 took the bonus...the AirForce would say they met their quota 

5C9A63BC-214E-443A-A7E9-EA58DF5E9BDD.jpeg

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11 hours ago, jrobe said:

If the pool went down to 3 and 2 took the bonus...the AirForce would say they met their quota 

5C9A63BC-214E-443A-A7E9-EA58DF5E9BDD.jpeg

This is exactly what I was thinking after reading that article. I’m sure there are Generals and Cols congratulating each other for fixing the fighter pilot problem. At least that is what their OPRs/awards will say

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2 hours ago, HossHarris said:

You can be the best of what’s left!

That's my career plan in a nutshell.

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On 11/21/2018 at 12:52 PM, Sneedro said:

And yet they will be shocked when the take rate is so low...in my opinion based on little to zero facts, those who take the bonus where likely already going to stay in.  Those on the fence $35k might be enough to sway them, but it doesn't stand a chance to keep those already planning on getting out.  They're going to need a lot more money than that.  My profit sharing check every year (to date at least) is at least that much, plus I make more as it is, and I work far less at my airline than I would on AD.  The AF can complain that they are short pilots and look perplexed all they want when the masses leave, but the reality of it is the airline industry is much more appealing to most than AD.  Until they realize that and get serious with their bonus, they aren't going to sway many people to stick around.

I got out at the end of 2015 when the bonus was $25K a year.  Exactly one year later, for my first month of second year FO pay, I cleared $25K...for the month.  It was that moment I realized “the Air Force is fu*ked”.  

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58 minutes ago, ARAMP1 said:

I got out at the end of 2015 when the bonus was $25K a year.  Exactly one year later, for my first month of second year FO pay, I cleared $25K...for the month.  It was that moment I realized “the Air Force is fu*ked”.  

If more pilots leave, that's better for me.  At least, in the short term.

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52 minutes ago, pawnman said:

If more pilots leave, that's better for me.  At least, in the short term.

Only if you’re not getting in airplanes with the inexperience that is left. 

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55 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Only if you’re not getting in airplanes with the inexperience that is left. 

Why?  I thought standards were still the same... :banghead:

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Got bored staring at my computer in my 9 to 5 non flying desk job, and started to geek out on the mobility take rate data.  So for the past 3 years, the number of useful fodder pilots, defined as non IDE select bonus takers, has been less 100.  This year is less than 60.  These are the passed over majors and line IP Lt Cols that wings use to fill ADOs, OGV, IG, XP, and MAJCOM staffs use to push paper.  And to feed the deployment machine filling 365s, I mean 2x 180s.  We'll always have enough of the HPO and command track types, but the experienced pilots are disappearing.   

We're 5 or more years from bottoming out on the experience level in the MAF.  But we're the healthiest of the bunch?

 

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2 hours ago, NKAWTG said:

Got bored staring at my computer in my 9 to 5 non flying desk job, and started to geek out on the mobility take rate data.  So for the past 3 years, the number of useful fodder pilots, defined as non IDE select bonus takers, has been less 100.  This year is less than 60.  These are the passed over majors and line IP Lt Cols that wings use to fill ADOs, OGV, IG, XP, and MAJCOM staffs use to push paper.  And to feed the deployment machine filling 365s, I mean 2x 180s.  We'll always have enough of the HPO and command track types, but the experienced pilots are disappearing.   

We're 5 or more years from bottoming out on the experience level in the MAF.  But we're the healthiest of the bunch?

 

What’s the number on the bottom? The denominator if you will. 100/x? 60/x?

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12 hours ago, Klepto said:

What’s the number on the bottom? The denominator if you will. 100/x? 60/x?

To show my work

2016 149/313

2017 140/319

2018 117/308

Assume around 15% to 20%  will be on the school/staff/command track.  Not that they were bad aviators,  but the MAF won't let them stay good.

What's left over is the "experienced" grey beard types.  With AMC being the piggy bank that gets robbed for the majority of AETC and UAV billets, we're about to go back to the days of 1 FGO per squadron.

 

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Go back? We’ve been there continuously for at least the last five years in my little corner of the AF.

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Thread bump. I’ll repost somewhere else if there’s a better thread to drop this.

Air Force still struggling with pilot retention
https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/the-role-of-the-personnel-system-in-the-air-force-leadership-and-retention-crisis/

Also cites the RAND study saying $100k/year is cheaper:
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-personnel-notebook/2019/04/new-study-shows-grim-outlook-for-future-of-air-force-pilot-shortage/

My question to the masses: has anyone seen any appreciable change in climate as a result of ACTF, CSAF initiatives, bonuses, or funding?


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33 minutes ago, MechGov said:

Thread bump. I’ll repost somewhere else if there’s a better thread to drop this.

Air Force still struggling with pilot retention
https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/the-role-of-the-personnel-system-in-the-air-force-leadership-and-retention-crisis/

Also cites the RAND study saying $100k/year is cheaper:
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-personnel-notebook/2019/04/new-study-shows-grim-outlook-for-future-of-air-force-pilot-shortage/

My question to the masses: has anyone seen any appreciable change in climate as a result of ACTF, CSAF initiatives, bonuses, or funding?


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This about covers it:

“Job dissatisfaction, career dissatisfaction, frequent and long deployments, poor quality of life, non-competitive pay and lack of personal and professional development are among the reasons cited for why many experienced military pilots separate from military service,” the DoD study states.

Pilots aren’t happy in the military and the packages the Air Force has to offer aren’t cutting it.”

Pretty simple yet not much is being done.

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10 hours ago, Bergman said:

This about covers it:

“Job dissatisfaction, career dissatisfaction, frequent and long deployments, poor quality of life, non-competitive pay and lack of personal and professional development are among the reasons cited for why many experienced military pilots separate from military service,” the DoD study states.

Pilots aren’t happy in the military and the packages the Air Force has to offer aren’t cutting it.”

Pretty simple yet not much is being done.

How can you say not much is being done?  They started a facebook page...

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