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ClearedHot

AFSOC Leadership Drain

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40 out 110 AFSOC O-6's hit the eject button, including a few HPOs (at least one a multi-year BPZ sitting Wing/CC).

Some might see this as a good thing, but that is still a lot of experience walking out the door all at once.

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28 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

40 out 110 AFSOC O-6's hit the eject button, including a few HPOs (at least one a muilt-year BPZ sitting Wing/CC).

Some might see this as a good thing, but that is still a lot of experience walking out the door all at once.

For context, what is the normal walk out rate?

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1 hour ago, tac airlifter said:

For context, what is the normal walk out rate?

Example; Here's some USAF wide active duty 0-6 retirement numbers for FY16 (I couldn't find more recent data);

- FY16; There were 3320 active duty 0-6's in the USAF of which 548 retired in FY16. See page 79 (pg78 - 82 covers USAF retirement numbers etc). 

http://actuary.defense.gov/Portals/15/Documents/MRS_StatRpt_2016 v4 FINAL.pdf?ver=2017-07-31-104724-430

 

Edited by waveshaper

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They must just not be very patriotic.

Or, at least, that's what some doofus in AF management once said.

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I’ve never understood the calculus with AFSOC O-5s who grew up in the command deploying their face off, and accepting O-6 knowing a 179/365 was coming down the pipe

It’s one thing to deploy and fly...that’s fun. But deploy to lead the JSOAC in afg...for a 179/365...yuck. To each their own. 

 

 

Edited by BashiChuni

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11 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

It’s one thing to deploy and fly...that’s fun. But deploy to lead the JSOAC in afg...for a 179/365...yuck. To each their own. 

 

I worked with (not for) two of them.  The first was a piece of FOD, worst person I ever had to deal with in a leadership position.  I had been warned, but what I experienced blew away any expectation I had.  

The second came on board and was a breath of fresh air without a chip/shoulder. Seemed to have the right attitude but after a bit, I kinda got a feeling he was basically a babysitter/shit-screen. 

It seemed like a very thankless job just keeping the lights on and watching the 03/04 types "on the JOC floor" keeping things in order.   The only thing I can compare it to is a CAG-like job on the Navy side, but in the Navy the CAG keeps flying. 

ATIS

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20 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

40 out 110 AFSOC O-6's hit the eject button, including a few HPOs (at least one a muilt-year BPZ sitting Wing/CC).

Some might see this as a good thing, but that is still a lot of experience walking out the door all at once.

What's changed?  Do they know something the average person doesn't?  Specifically, are they worried about Gen Webb or Gen Thomas being replaced by someone coming up that has historically exhibited very different leadership priorities?

Edited by HU&W

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3 hours ago, HU&W said:

Specifically, are they worried about Gen Webb or Gen Thomas being replaced by someone coming up that has historically exhibited very different leadership priorities?

I don’t know anything more than the next guy, but I am familiar with a HPO AFSOC 2-star who reminds me a lot of Darth Sidious. Smart, ambitious and devious, a very deadly combination. If he were to command AFSOC one day, woo boy no thanks.

Honestly I don’t see why many folks in AFSOC in particular stay beyond 20. You’re working at a ~35% discount because you could just quit and get your retirement check, plus you know the price to pay is the previously mentioned downrange 365 command tour in an endless war to add on top of possibly a dozen or so previous deployments.

God bless the true patriots and the good dudes who stay because there aren’t enough of them. 

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Yep, I worked with an spec ops O-6 and he tried to stay in the game.  But he too saw the effort was futile and now flies something that Boeing makes and crewed with flight attendants.  He probably would have been a decent general.

Out

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On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 8:24 PM, BashiChuni said:
I’ve never understood the calculus with AFSOC O-5s who grew up in the command deploying their face off, and accepting O-6 knowing a 179/365 was coming down the pipe
It’s one thing to deploy and fly...that’s fun. But deploy to lead the JSOAC in afg...for a 179/365...yuck. To each their own. 
 
 


If nothing else, AFSOC’s brain drain will lead to more CSOs running the show.

From FY14-16 (the farthest I bothered to look back), AFSOC CSOs averaged 5-6 folks promoted to O-6 per year.

In FY 17, twelve 12Ss were promoted to O-6 (double the rate a few years ago), while only eleven 11Ss pinned on the same rank (down from 16 in FY14).

On the mobility side, the number of 12Ms promoted to O-6 per year has also grown from a few years ago, while the number of 11Ms promoted has significantly decreased.

You statisticians will likely critique the small sample sizes, but it still seems like Good news for navs ... the ones that hang around will lead the service.

TT

Edited by TnkrToad
grammer, accuracy.

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3 hours ago, TnkrToad said:


If nothing else, AFSOC’s brain drain will lead to more CSOs running the show.

From FY14-16 (the farthest I bothered to look back), AFSOC CSOs averaged 5-6 folks promoted to O-6 per year.

In FY 17, twelve 12Ss were promoted to O-6 (double the rate a few years ago), while only eleven 11Ss pinned on the same rank (down from 16 in FY14).

On the mobility side, the number of 12Ms promoted to O-6 per year has also grown from a few years ago, while the number of 11Ms promoted has significantly decreased.

You statisticians will likely critique the small sample sizes, but it still seems like Good news for navs ... the ones that hang around will lead the service.

TT

My community is similar... we have roughly twice as many CGO 11Rs than CGO 12Rs.  However, we have almost no 11Rs above the ADO level of management.  Lots of 12Rs at the squadron and group levels. 

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4 hours ago, TnkrToad said:


If nothing else, AFSOC’s brain drain will lead to more CSOs running the show.

From FY14-16 (the farthest I bothered to look back), AFSOC CSOs averaged 5-6 folks promoted to O-6 per year.

In FY 17, twelve 12Ss were promoted to O-6 (double the rate a few years ago), while only eleven 11Ss pinned on the same rank (down from 16 in FY14).

On the mobility side, the number of 12Ms promoted to O-6 per year has also grown from a few years ago, while the number of 11Ms promoted has significantly decreased.

You statisticians will likely critique the small sample sizes, but it still seems like Good news for navs ... the ones that hang around will lead the service.

TT

Can someone please explain this to me?  I've noticed this trend in the MAF as well.  The only explanation I could come up with is that most of these guys don't have airplanes any more and are able to do "other things" on staff, etc. (which is what the AF really values anyway) and that improves their looks on paper.  

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In AFSOC at least my experience was that pilots and CSOs were not treated differently in terms of career potential; both rated crew positions are essential on most AFSOC aircraft. So my off-the-cuff analysis would be that pilots, especially now, have more obvious lucrative outside employment opportunities and are getting out at a higher rate vs CSOs who are only jumping ship closer to the AF average. Both are treated similarly when the command is looking for future leaders, so therefore more CSOs are left to pin AFSOC eagles relative to their total share of the rated CGO population.

Not sure that applies to the MAF nor if the data for AFSOC would validate my hypothesis, but it's a WAG based on what I see with my peers.

Edited by nsplayr
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Most Navs have been phased out in the MAF world with the KC-135 ditching a majority of them 15+ years ago when PACER Crag came out and C-130's convening a majority to J's.  Navs usually get command in a OSS, if that, or usually they have to go to CRW.

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How many are pilots compared to Nav/FCO/EWO?

Haha. That’s funny. Since when can Navs/FCO/EWOs make O6 unless they are the MSG CC or something?

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