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Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

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2 hours ago, DirtyFlightSuit said:

You would think, but we have in fact ramped up production through syllabus cuts, maintaining break neck lines per day (much more emergency returns recently than is generally expected), leadership encouraged PA's, as well as waiving multiple sorties in current classes until the new and "improved" (shorter) syllabus is fully in swing.  OBOGs be damne'd the machine carries on.   Side note old timers should be happy, we are using paper gradebooks again for our new syllabus until TIMs can be whipped into compliance (it too is rebelling, yay Timmy!)

Who needs training when you can graduate them sooner?

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2 hours ago, DirtyFlightSuit said:

You would think, but we have in fact ramped up production through syllabus cuts, maintaining break neck lines per day (much more emergency returns recently than is generally expected), leadership encouraged PA's, as well as waiving multiple sorties in current classes until the new and "improved" (shorter) syllabus is fully in swing.  OBOGs be damne'd the machine carries on.   Side note old timers should be happy, we are using paper gradebooks again for our new syllabus until TIMs can be whipped into compliance (it too is rebelling, yay Timmy!)

Yeah, no way this leads to more accidents down the road.  Jam pack everyone through to make the slides at HAF look green. 

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SocialD,

im pretty sure there’s a memo that stated something to the effect of “AD pilots in a TFI assignment are authorized for reduced sortie requirements that match their ANG/ARC counterparts”.

so the flush of wingman get 8 sorties. The non-existent second tour guys get 6. Some  unit leadership (ours) doesn’t want to look bad in front of ACC and is pressing to get them all 10 so “they don’t get left behind their peers”.

Now the guard members fly 6, and that includes 2-3 tankers. 

Enxoueage your leadership to find (Guard WEPTAC has it) and execute that letter.

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3 hours ago, Steamed Diaper said:

Since there is a huge pilot shortage, I have a better chance of becoming a pilot in Active Duty or the Guard/Reserves?

Yes, and I highly recommend choosing the Guard/Reserves over active duty. 

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3 hours ago, Steamed Diaper said:

Since there is a huge pilot shortage, I have a better chance of becoming a pilot in Active Duty or the Guard/Reserves?

There's no shortage of people applying to be pilots.

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What’s Driving the U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/04/whats-driving-the-u-s-air-force-pilot-shortage/amp/

Navy pilot Lt. Jack McCain claims that Air Force pilots “are not provided the opportunity for meaningful leader development.” If this is your boy, please tell him to STFU. He isn't helping.

Edited by HarleyQuinn
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What’s Driving the U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/04/whats-driving-the-u-s-air-force-pilot-shortage/amp/

Navy pilot Lt. Jack McCain claims that Air Force pilots “are not provided the opportunity for meaningful leader development.” If this is your boy, please tell him to STFU. He isn't helping.

O-4s: “we are leaving at the end of our commitment.”

 

AF Leadership: “Say no more, let’s ask the Navy Lt why AF O-4s are leaving”

 

Seems about right to me.

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13 hours ago, Duck said:

O-4s: “we are leaving at the end of our commitment.”

 

AF Leadership: “Say no more, let’s ask the Navy Lt why AF O-4s are leaving”

 

Seems about right to me.

I think the Lt was saying we want more PME. A good old blanket party is what the Lt needs and it worked wonders for Pvt Gomer Pyle in the movie Full Metal Jacket.

Edited by HarleyQuinn

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"Mike Benitez, an Air Force fighter pilot"

Even the article they reference clarifies he's a WSO :banghead:

(Absolutely nothing against him; I've read several of his articles...always well-written and accurate)

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1 hour ago, HarleyQuinn said:

What’s Driving the U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/04/whats-driving-the-u-s-air-force-pilot-shortage/amp/

Navy pilot Lt. Jack McCain claims that Air Force pilots “are not provided the opportunity for meaningful leader development.” If this is your boy, please tell him to STFU. He isn't helping.

Look who is dad is, make no mistake that the guy has ambititions - that are unfortunately not in line with actually fixing the pilot shortage.

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10 hours ago, dream big said:

Look who is dad is, make no mistake that the guy has ambititions - that are unfortunately not in line with actually fixing the pilot shortage.

I thought McCain's son was an airline guy?

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2 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

I thought McCain's son was an airline guy?

This is actually one of his sons.  He went through pilot training a few classes ahead of me.  How else would he have a voice on foreign policy magazine? Haha

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This is actually one of his sons.  He went through pilot training a few classes ahead of me.  How else would he have a voice on foreign policy magazine? Haha


That checks. He’s a 60 pilot now.

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So in a recent webinar with our AFPC reps, we were told some useful and interesting information to help stave off that 365.  From the functionals, at least 45 consecutive days deployed will put you on the bottom of the 365 list for 5 years.  So, if you're an attached guy worried about that looming 365, see if you can't offer some guest help on a deployment (or even half of one).

It does not protect you from any of the multitude of 179s out there, though.  

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31 minutes ago, pawnman said:

So in a recent webinar with our AFPC reps, we were told some useful and interesting information to help stave off that 365.  From the functionals, at least 45 consecutive days deployed will put you on the bottom of the 365 list for 5 years.  So, if you're an attached guy worried about that looming 365, see if you can't offer some guest help on a deployment (or even half of one).

It does not protect you from any of the multitude of 179s out there, though.  

So you can have 5 short tours, but if you were lucky enough to get a break for 5 years (or if you are in a job where you're TDY a lot, but never "deployed") you'll be at the top of the list, with guys that have only ever deployed 45 consecutive days in the last 5 years.

Tha AF and all their clever equations... *facepalm*

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The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

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44 minutes ago, nunya said:

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

This

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7 hours ago, Klepto said:

So you can have 5 short tours, but if you were lucky enough to get a break for 5 years (or if you are in a job where you're TDY a lot, but never "deployed") you'll be at the top of the list, with guys that have only ever deployed 45 consecutive days in the last 5 years.

Tha AF and all their clever equations... *facepalm*

No.  I believe the criteria was posted already.  IIRC Anyone with 45 consecutive days or more in the last 5 years goes to the bottom.  Number of short tours, STRD, and ODSD are then used.  So in your example you'd very likely not be a candidate. 

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6 hours ago, nunya said:

The stack will be so short though that being at the bottom of it won't mean much, especially if the top-o-the-stack guys have top cover, or put in retirement paperwork to get skipped over (and then pull it back).

This.  Aside from almost everyone having 45 days in the last 5 years, the last number I heard was that we're going through 7 folks to fill each 365 due to retiring, bailing at 15+ years, etc.  From what I've seen in my neck of the woods, that seems in the ballpark.

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This.  Aside from almost everyone having 45 days in the last 5 years, the last number I heard was that we're going through 7 folks to fill each 365 due to retiring, bailing at 15+ years, etc.  From what I've seen in my neck of the woods, that seems in the ballpark.


It took 15 people for one to stick with my deputy group. It was an 11G billet. The two other fixed wing advisors replacing myself and a Maj both volunteered.

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57 minutes ago, Bode said:

 

 


It took 15 people for one to stick with my deputy group. It was an 11G billet. The two other fixed wing advisors replacing myself and a Maj both volunteered.

 

That's the type of example I'd love to hear a more senior dude's perspective.  I'd like to think that OG or WG/CC mentioned to their MAJCOM/CC that they just lost 15 highly qualified folks to fill an 11G spot, and the MAJCOM/CC call CENTCOM (or wherever) and say WTF OVER.  Was it really worth it?  Did they *really* do a complete scrub of deployed billets and deem each one worthy of the cost to fill them? 

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2 hours ago, MDDieselPilot said:

No.  I believe the criteria was posted already.  IIRC Anyone with 45 consecutive days or more in the last 5 years goes to the bottom.  Number of short tours, STRD, and ODSD are then used.  So in your example you'd very likely not be a candidate. 

Right. I’d be at the bottom of the top candidates, with the 45 day-only guy at the very bottom. Makes perfect sense.

Edited by Klepto

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The way they said it was that you'd be ineligible for a 365 for five years, not just the bottom of the list. Sorry if that was misleading. Take a deployment in year 15 and you'll be good until retirement.

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