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On 8/21/2020 at 11:18 AM, Hacker said:

Had three friends get FedEx interview invitations this week, and one get a job offer at UPS.

The dudes who got Purple invites:

- One current active duty pointy-nose TPS grad O-4 with a separation date on file this fall.

- One former pointy-nose driver, now reserve SUPT IP O-3.

- One former AD/reserve MC-12 and C-17 O-4, now a couple years into a Legacy (and vulnerable to being furloughed) who didn't previously have a FX app in.

The UPS guy is a former pointy-nose DO who is freshly-separated.

Did the guys with FDX invites all have an internal rec?

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"The best" fluctuates as contracts change. Also part of what is considered "the best" is where your seniority will be for the duration of your expected career, and in what base/equipment/seat. There i

Just got an interview with SWA with: 2,800 total 1000 hrs in T-6 1500 hrs in KC-135 Not sure how close that is to “min time” but probably pretty low comparatively.

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1 hour ago, AZwildcat said:

Did the guys with FDX invites all have an internal rec?

Only one of the three that I know of.

The Personal Endorsement continues to be important, but the same things that have always made a strong application apparently continue to be too.

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Definitely a buyers markets out there. The swing back into the cargo court specifically is repeated yet once again, reminiscent of post 9/11. Time will heal and the impacts will shape this industry quite a bit, but for now many will weather the storm. No pilot shortage at this point, but timing is everything - nothing new.
 

A Fellow retiree, a great friend of mine has been at United since 98’. Was a 777 FO for awhile, then a 787 FO international flyer based on a great lifestyle earned after 2 decades plus. Now being displaced and back to the guppy. Wanted the Airbus, but the workload it would have caused him was too much in the NE, so hanging his hat on 73 FO. Geeez, not fun but I know- he has a job. He never thought 2 steps forward 10 steps back.

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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What I posted on APC (FedEx Applicants) regarding choices made, which airline is the best, the turmoil of it all and why most stay...

Just telling them never give up, keep at it.(I am not purple)

Constant leap-frogging on which destination airline is the best, but overall they have their merits and definitely issues no doubt. Amazing how the pendulum swings, how cyclic our industry is, unfathomable at times. The ups and downs of it all and yet we continue to chug along. Couldn’t recommend this profession to anyone a decade ago, but these past few years were looking up with that pilot shortage looming until recently. Understandably we hang in there - either too invested at this point or your projected entry in about 2-3 years perhaps will pay dividends based on timing as usual and nothing more. One thing is undeniable, if you have some sort of passion remaining it makes it a helluva a lot easier. The struggle is real, payoffs are tangible but in the end we do the best we can to have our needs met. Long live the relentless airline pilot; whether it came easy for you or the struggle was/is real you are all warriors in some form or fashion or you wouldn’t be here.

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I retired from the Guard last year, and haven't been on here in a while.  I also didn't really scan through all of the posts, but Jetblue won't be furloughing until at least May 2021. If we don't have a vaccine for a virus that has a 99.96% survivability rate, then we're doomed.  Talking to a Check Airman recently, JB plans on hiring again in the late fall, which for the life of me, seems like aiming for Pluto!  Either way, we had sent guys home mid training back in April, and just started recalling them back to finish training.

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That’s good news! Way to go JB. Cargo side maintains their pull of folks so that’s good. Talked to a mil guy (new friend) retiring in a couple of months who wasn’t getting any traction with our folks despite waiting patiently for a airframe/class date after being hired in July - told him to inquire again since everything is crazy right now. He just got his class date and airframe of choice 2 days ago. Good for him and it lines up with his retirement. Sometimes it all works out for the better.

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Cargo vs Pax aside, this is a great example of timing is everything.  I'll never push any of the young guys in the squadron toward the airlines/cargo jobs, as it's not for everyone and certainly has it's ups/downs.  That said, I'll do my best to give them the most sound advice I can and answer questions on how much I like/dislike the career...and I really do love my job.  I feel the most important piece of advice I give is that if you think you'll ever want to jump to the airlines/cargo, then the earlier you make that decision, the better.  Stop fucking opining at a temporary pay cut or whatifing everything.  If you don't like it you can always quit, but you can never go back and get a better seniority number.  I had a few squadron mates who knew they wanted to do it, but took forever to pull the trigger or kicked the can because they "didn't have time" to fill out the application.  For one, the difference is likely keeping my WB FO gig in base vs commuting to NB FO reserve in NYC and only missing furlough by 10 pilots.  Even if I don't keep my WB FO gig, I'll be in the top 15% of my seat (read picking my schedules/vacation/days off) vs being in the bottom 10% or commuting.  Timing is everything, and of course, better lucky than good.  Obviously this assumes you're not near an AGR retirement as that changes the dynamic a bit.  

 

As far as the cargo vs pax, I'm glad my cargo brethren haven't been negative impacted by this situation.  I'd happily be at FDX/UPS if they had called first, but I ended up at DAL.  Truth is though, we really have no idea where any of these companies will end up and/or what threats lie ahead for each industry...we all have our boogeymen out there.  I'll still recommend to go with the first one that calls, THEN if one calls that allows you to live in base, you have a decision to make.  Obviously right now that decision is easy, but the pax carriers will come back.  Very few things will increase your QOL like living in base at your job...as has been said on here numerous times, it's like having a completely different job.  I understand that it's not always a realistic option (keep momma happy), but it's a decision that shouldn't be taken lightly.  If you absolutely must live in Hays, KS, then ya, cargo is probably a better choice for their better options for deviate dh.  Just realize that anything can change with the next contract or next shift in business plans.  Either way, in the long run, you really can't go wrong...hopefully lol.  Best of luck to us all. 

 

Edited by SocialD
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19 minutes ago, torqued said:

You know, you said "In the long wrong" when the correct phrase is "In the long run." Surprised no one pointed that out to you yet.

 

They've just given up on pointing out all my autocorrect/grammatical errors.  

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6 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

As far as the cargo vs pax, I'm glad my cargo brethren haven't been negative impacted by this situation.  I'd happily be at FDX/UPS if they had called first, but I ended up at DAL.  Truth is though, we really have no idea where any of these companies will end up and/or what threats lie ahead for each industry...we all have our boogeymen out there.  I'll still recommend to go with the first one that calls, THEN if one calls that allows you to live in base, you have a decision to make.  Obviously right now that decision is easy, but the pax carriers will come back.  Very few things will increase your QOL like living in base at your job...as has been said on here numerous times, it's like having a completely different job.  I understand that it's not always a realistic option (keep momma happy), but it's a decision that shouldn't be taken lightly.  If you absolutely must live in Hays, KS, then ya, cargo is probably a better choice for their better options for deviate dh.  Just realize that anything can change with the next contract or next shift in business plans.  Either way, in the long run, you really can't go wrong...hopefully lol.  Best of luck to us all. 

 

This. When I got hired I happened to have interviews with two carriers at roughly the same time. One pax and one cargo. I chose to go to the cargo operator in part due to lower susceptibility to economic downturns. But if the pax carrier had called a month ahead of the other, I would’ve ended up there and never looked back. Seniority is EVERYTHING at the airlines and even one number can make the difference between a long and prosperous career and misery. The advice that was given to me was: Apply to all of the operators you think you might be happy working for and dance with the first girl that says yes. That’ll always be good advice. It’s a crazy, volatile industry. For some of us, it’s the only thing we could ever imagine doing and worth the potential pain. I wish the best for everyone involved in it and hope the recovery happens soon and puts us all in a stronger position than before. Hang in there guys. Things WILL get better. 

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SocialD and Prozac are sooooo right and said it best = SENIORITY is everything. Everything trickles down from there. Bypassed Captain for several years now, but I eventually will bite. Want the Clams, don’t need the clams as lifestyle is everything at this stage. Everyone is different and will choose a different path accordingly. Several Captains have given me crap within 10 mins of meeting downstairs, but all I say is “Have you ever been #1 anywhere???” Granted, #1 at my base specifically, not most of the others. I would have been 5 from the BOTTOM as a Captain same base with absolutely no control. Most Captains appreciate and understand my position, especially having someone sleep opposite rest periods as I have been dragging around the world with our non-standard operation for quite awhile now. OK, I digressed a bit here.

Point is: My Base just closed TODAY! Although having been forewarned a couple of months ago, it was astonishing after about 2 decades of solid contract work when this first started. It was nice driving to work and then back home after a long trip, but these are the up and downs of this business. Boom, lost #1 so do I bid for Captain now - not likely as I am still within the top 3 of a few of our bases. Commuting does blow, but not like others as we are ticketed/put to bed but now I could potentially lose 12-24 hours if not being able to hold a commute Day 1 line. Probably OK though, Seniority is Everything!!!
 

ALL airlines have their ups and downs. Things will recover in due time, perhaps shaped a bit differently but the world is still turning. Flying rubber dog poop out of HKG has been advantageous no doubt. I am worried for a few of my friends based in HKG with Team Purple now. Have tried contacting them and nothing heard for just over a month now. Big Red moved in and things are upside down it seems. Managed to avoid it for awhile. Threats are beyond our basic imagination it seems. Stay frosty.

 

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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On 8/31/2020 at 9:59 AM, SocialD said:

I understand that it's not always a realistic option (keep momma happy), but it's a decision that shouldn't be taken lightly.  If you absolutely must live in Hays, KS, then ya, cargo is probably a better choice for their better options for deviate dh.   

 

I've had to explain to a few wives that they weren't choosing between living close to their family and not living close. They were choosing between whether their kids got to see dad or the grandparents more.

Obviously a simplification, but most do not realize that it's *a lot* more than just the hubby having to leave earlier in the morning to catch their commuter flight.

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On 8/26/2020 at 2:16 PM, AirGuardianC141747 said:

The swing back into the cargo court specifically is repeated yet once again, reminiscent of post 9/11. Time will heal and the impacts will shape this industry quite a bit, but for now many will weather the storm. 

Not to be Debbie Downer but this is so much worse than 9/11 for the industry. After 9/11 RPMs dropped ~35% and were down ~30% for the next 5 months before slowly recovering from there. 6 months in right now and things are still twice as bad as the worst of the 9/11 shock. Yes the industry will find a balance and these numbers will improve but at what level and how many planes do we need today vs. a year ago? Now that the furlough protections from the Fed bailouts are going away I think things are going to get ugly even with the airlines getting more funding.

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5 hours ago, MilitaryToFinance said:

Not to be Debbie Downer but this is so much worse than 9/11 for the industry. After 9/11 RPMs dropped ~35% and were down ~30% for the next 5 months before slowly recovering from there. 6 months in right now and things are still twice as bad as the worst of the 9/11 shock. Yes the industry will find a balance and these numbers will improve but at what level and how many planes do we need today vs. a year ago? Now that the furlough protections from the Fed bailouts are going away I think things are going to get ugly even with the airlines getting more funding.

Totally agree with you. My 9/11 statement was regarding the swing back to the air cargo worlds front doors for jobs. And I emphasized the reshaping of the industry with “quite a bit.” So now that you’re being very frank with graphs I will readjust accordingly and be more against the norm as most believe it would have clicked back by now or at least by Christmas. As your graphs indicate it’s basically still horrible. Vaccine or not it won’t snap back quickly at all. International flying is toast for 2-3 years and that’s not predicting pre-COVID levels that’s just a head above water survival rate and holding a profit and not booming. This will hurt much longer then initial thoughts.

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Yeah I expected a slow recovery but this has been worse that I initially thought as well. The interesting thing about the daily graph, that is impossible to see in the picture, is the weekly cadence. The year over year declines is consistently worse on Tues/Wed compared to Thurs-Sun of the same weeks. So recreational travel flights are coming back faster than business travel that happens mid-week. Even with a vaccine I wonder how much that business travel will recover. Clearly it will snap higher than today because I talk to plenty of companies who complain that they really do need to go visit sites/customers/plants. But I'm attending a lot of conferences and meetings over Zoom that are more efficient for everybody than wasting a day or two traveling for the same meeting. Even when leisure travel comes back to "normal" if the high-paying business travelers aren't there the math gets tough for the airlines. Probably a good time for Jet Blue and Southwest, not so sure how American/Delta/United fare without raising ticket prices.

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I think when we see the international market open back up travel going to explode. When it comes to the big three a lot of the domestic travel are connections to International locations. Parking hundreds of widebodies is what's killing us. This isn't just people leaving the states and coming back but people coming into the states and going back to whatever country they live in. That's huge. This isn't because everyone's afraid to travel it's because governments have shut the travel down. Now we all know things aren't going to open back up as quickly as they were shut down so yeah it's going to take a while, but I think if a lot of countries decided tomorrow that they were going to open everything back up again we'd see travel shoot up tremendously because people are ready to get back to normal life. There are a lot of young people out there who couldn't give a rats ass about COVID and are ready to travel. Not saying that's smart btw...

As far as business travel goes, yeah maybe some of it won't come back I'm sure there's enough of you who have been teleworking over the past 6 months to be annoyed with it already. I know I am. I've been after unit on days during this pandemic trying teleworks and it just isn't like doing it in person. For a lot of people the benefits of business travel are what attracts them to whatever job they do. Granted a lot of people probably don't like traveling for their job and being away from their family but for others they probably love to travel and would rather be doing that instead of sitting in front of a laptop looking at a 14 inch screen teleworking. With 3 billion people watching Youtube and porn, the internet and teleworking technology isn't exactly perfect all of the time.





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Some more very well laid out points. I hope your right and I too believe it will come back just not near the levels it was preCovid.

Leisure travel when the doors open, definitely a spike if people haven’t spent their extra income/resources during this virus just to stay afloat. Visiting relatives domestically will launch, international travel is totally restricted and no doubt a spike will be seen but it will take awhile and definitely plateau eventually below preCovid as unfortunately elders have decreased, a ton of business loss and now our older generations including myself (still no Facebook though) have become waaaay more savy on social media tools due to necessity and not curiosity. Medical has almost done a 180 on the normal visitation/in house patient care. Doctors forced to do eScripts(3% usage rate before shutdown, 95%+ now)) vs the human touch provided by thousands upon thousands of care workers who traveled before. My neighbor was one of the M-Fri every week travelers... Not a trip since this began...

Businesses have learned more ways to conduct sales than ever before as they were forced assimilate and not the usual fat cutting measures done by the bean counters. This was a bean counters wet dream, now the Boss has been listening definitely more so. Nothing seems to be able to replace face to face and that will get back out there but doubtful it will ever be like it was. The entire world has just been reprogrammed from out-and-about to solitary confinement including simple ideas as face coverings - Reprogrammed. I would be itching to travel as well but the economics/Boss will decide what travel is really necessary and what can be done over the net with monumental cost savings such as air fare, hotel, rental car (they are hoping to survive), per-diem, etc. Big contracts only most likely. Travelers these past few months have been the bargain basement shoppers to include traveling with garbage bags, it’s insane and can’t believe I saw it several times. These aren’t the travelers we’re looking for, but beggars can’t be choosers. Being reliable and consistent is everything in this industry. Japan specifically indicated 1 year domestic at best, 3 years internationally at best was their forecast for basic profitability/survivability without cuts and initial growth. It’s all a crap shoot really as time will tell. Loads are tight here due to consolidation/less flights as everywhere else.

Brick and mortar has and will continue to disappear. No Building costs, insurance, taxes, cleaning requirements, electricity/water bills, etc, etc, etc. Telecommute is boring for some totally agree, but many especially the younger groups seem to thrive on it. Totally makes sense if you structure your work patterns during the day and not be enslaved to a cubicle or office. Execute your day with an ear piece has been the norm so much more than before. It’s Freedom for many depending on your situation, lifestyle, mentality. 
Definitely reprogrammed in so many ways, good, bad and the ugly. It’s seems to be a long haul.

*Just my take as I travel around and scan the environment on board aircraft and in the cities with all the for rent/for sale signs, nothing more. Totally 1 cent look.

 

 

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2 big reasons I disagree with your last paragraph: Let's be honest, the business world is filled with control freaks, and you just can't control an employee very effectively from behind a computer screen. It's hard for me to believe all those millions of hardass "you're fired if you show up 5 minutes late" managers will just be cool with the way things are now. So much business is done through conventions and face to face networking. So much of it has to be done in secrecy, or requires someone to be "boots on the ground" at a work site.

The second reason is, the market will adjust. Commercial rents will get cheaper if there's lower demand to balance. Service companies (like, say, a consultancy) trying to save on rent costs and insurance will have a clear competitive disadvantage to companies that are willing to fly people out and spend the money. Video and teleconferencing has been already been out for a long time --- there's reasons why it never really took over.

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2 hours ago, joe1234 said:

2 big reasons I disagree with your last paragraph: Let's be honest, the business world is filled with control freaks, and you just can't control an employee very effectively from behind a computer screen. It's hard for me to believe all those millions of hardass "you're fired if you show up 5 minutes late" managers will just be cool with the way things are now. So much business is done through conventions and face to face networking. So much of it has to be done in secrecy, or requires someone to be "boots on the ground" at a work site.

The second reason is, the market will adjust. Commercial rents will get cheaper if there's lower demand to balance. Service companies (like, say, a consultancy) trying to save on rent costs and insurance will have a clear competitive disadvantage to companies that are willing to fly people out and spend the money. Video and teleconferencing has been already been out for a long time --- there's reasons why it never really took over.

Yup. Human nature isn't so easily changed.

 

https://fortune.com/2020/09/14/jpmorgan-work-from-home-wfh-worker-productivity/

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