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The new airline thread


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10 hours ago, the g-man said:


Sounds like a special kind of hell having to endure a car service JFK-DOV


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Won’t lie, not fun after operating from Anchorage. At least it was a Tahoe and not a Camry and have a couple of days off sleeping/working out (nothing worth venturing out for ) here in DE. Heck, even the Wendy’s shutdown dining-in at 8 PM / drive thru only for the foreseeable future today. Lucky I made a deal with manager today, making the drive thru a walk thru if I don’t want to eat hotel food or microwave food. This is getting messy, but I have food access for now and I am logistically sound with TP.

Catch up on my reading, rest and movies I guess.

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18 hours ago, SocialD said:

This is a great lesson in not being a complete dick about losing pay to come out to the gaurd (standing by for the people's elbow from Hindsight2020😁).  Also a lesson in not leaving your mil gig right away and continuing to promote if able.

Nah, no elbow coming from me brother. BL as much as this place has been a bit of an echo chamber of optimism bias for the past 6 years, that is of no concern to me either way. I don't wish furloughs on anyone.

Back on topic: I think even those furloughed today are going to be fine in the long term. The excel spreadsheets were always ridiculous fantasy-ridden garbage. That doesn't make the airline career garbage in the least, it just means that expectations need management.

I sincerely wish every single airline guy or aspirant a quick recovery to income parity. As full time cadre, we're doing our part in trying to shore up our TRs in this moment of need.

 

Edited by hindsight2020
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Not a day goes by where I wish I stayed in. Job security included. 

 

Live below your means, keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3, save appropriately, and enjoy the ride. 

 

Always hope for the best but plan for the worst. Still better than Active Duty.

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Not a day goes by where I wish I stayed in. Job security included. 
 
Live below your means, keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3, save appropriately, and enjoy the ride. 
 
Always hope for the best but plan for the worst. Still better than Active Duty.

I am so glad I decided to keep a Guard job and not just cut ties completely. Being able to bring in extra money for just a little bit of work is a good shock absorber in times like these.


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I'm gonna go a different route - I was a clean cut and don't miss the Guard/Reserve either. Still have the Post 9/11 GI Bill and Law school if everything else fails and/or I lose my medical.

 

Totally signing up for our 55 hours/mo of paid leave for six months if offered though. Donno bout you all, but I can easily live on 10k/month (401k incl) for free. 

 

 

Edited by xaarman
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On 3/17/2020 at 9:35 AM, xaarman said:

Live below your means

keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3

save appropriately

enjoy the ride. 

I'm 2 for 4.  

If I don't get out of the house in the near future, it will probably go to 1 for 4.  

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If we could just get our public on board expeditiously like they did/have here in Hong Kong, we would have had a much quicker recovery no doubt. It’s also a cultural based momentum and previously had their butts kicked by SARS and gained a huge learning curve from it, so there’s that. Although the initial choke point has passed for the US, we really need to hunker down accordingly and tamper down the effect as best we can as a society. Met with mask kits, temp checks (airport & hotel), paperwork, escorted as needed, even the hotel TV remotes are sealed accordingly. People may argue overkill, but the effectiveness whatever it may be specifically is undeniably working. If we’re going to subsidize incomes (not calling it a bailout, it’s a natural disaster if you will) with $ our nation really doesn’t have, discipline and adherence must be attained. The more protracted this becomes, the worse it will be. Just my thoughts.

Super eerie landing here midnight and taxing to the cargo ramp where there’s minimum parking available (Very large ramp) and cargo/workers everywhere and like an anthill. Other side almost completely dormant, no movement, no people to be seen, pax carrier silhouettes on the vast ramps where they left a few lights on. Truly surreal...

You can’t make this sh*t up. We need to get these economies rolling again.

Great to hear some measure of subsidies/provisions are being given and people have planned accordingly. Drive on, Press on and be safe!

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I know it’s situation dependent, but from my vantage point I totally  agree with xaarman. It’s rather odd some younger newcomers show up and talk about when they make their Big Move to one Major airline or another and start rolling in the cash needing the 3-400K (it’s weird that they don’t know it doesn’t happen overnight).
Maybe they are smart and are just “Preppers”, getting ready for the 2-3 wife, RV, Boat package, etc. I still let them know, if you can’t manage 3-400K, you definitely can’t manage 1-200K. I know there’s a bottom limit, but it’s being tested right now.

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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This is a pretty incredible graphic (from https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-flight-capacity-coronavirus/ hopefully they update weekly). If you want to look on the bright side the China line suggests a pretty rapid recovery once we turn the corner. China is such a weird country I hate to extrapolate just from that datapoint but their air traffic and general industry is rapidly coming back online. Hard to say what this does for tourism travel over the next ~6 months even after the virus is "handled."

You're Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Global Flight Capacity

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Obviously this is going to put a stop to airline hiring for a significant amount of time. I've seen estimates as short as 6 months and as long as 10 years, with a current consensus in the ~2 year range. Once hiring does start up again, do you guys see it initially being more competitive than it has been in the recent past for mil guys, based on the potential glut of guys whose UPT commitments are now expired, who got enough hours at their regional to be competitive, etc? Just wondering how much of my new-found free time I should be dedicating to the more ancillary parts of the resume like formal education.

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16 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

How many people on here have pulled their separation/retirement due to this?

No thanks; separating because I have no faith in the AD Air Force’s talent management, so not giving them the opportunity yet again. 

Edited by SurelySerious
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6 hours ago, mcbush said:

Once hiring does start up again, do you guys see it initially being more competitive than it has been in the recent past for mil guys, based on the potential glut of guys whose UPT commitments are now expired, who got enough hours at their regional to be competitive, etc?

Wondering the exact same thing! Hopefully it won’t be quite as competitive as it was for the guys trying to get hired in 2014-15...not an airline guy so what do I know obviously. 

Curious what folks currently in the industry think about this one?

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My ADSC waiver to retire was denied just last Friday. Can’t say I’m too disappointed at this point. ADSC ends next January anyway and I’m a free agent, line flying, ADO, O-5. Not sure now when I’ll push the button again. Definitely going to hold off and see how things play out.


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2 hours ago, pcola said:

ADSC ends next January anyway and I’m a free agent, line flying, ADO, O-5. 

I don't know your specific circumstances, but that sure sounds good to me.  Enjoy the next 8-10 months.  

 

13 hours ago, mcbush said:

Once hiring does start up again, do you guys see it initially being more competitive than it has been in the recent past for mil guys, based on the potential glut of guys whose UPT commitments are now expired, who got enough hours at their regional to be competitive, etc? Just wondering how much of my new-found free time I should be dedicating to the more ancillary parts of the resume like formal education.

I'm not involved in any way with hiring at my airline, however there will be a logjam of applications building up due to the hiring stoppage.  And yes, it will be that much more competitive.  Three years ago, UAL had 10,400 qualified applicants, and I'd guess less than 15% of them got interviews.  I'd say we will probably end up there again... or worse.  Trivia:  UAL will retire 2.1% of their current pilots by the end of 2020.   Thirty percent will be gone by the end of 2027.  

I don't know what you mean by "dedicating to the more ancillary parts of the resume" but flying regularly as an instructor/evaluator would be my advice.  

Based on very recent union town hall meetings, I would expect it will be a while before any significant hiring takes place.  Even though they are the experts, it is still speculative at this point, so I'll skip the details of what they said.  

Find a place to ride things out for a year or two.  If the situation improves faster than that, all the better.  

Edited by HuggyU2
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Are you an early riser Huggy? Or late to bed sleep all day type. Impressive. I just flew in from ANC, here in quiet JFK / New York City. Toooo quiet. But it’s a good sign that these people need to hunker down. We’ll see what victims to be daylight brings. Had my mask and thankfully my Uber Driver had his, granted he was Asian and well ahead of the game. Not his first rodeo.

34 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

I don't know your specific circumstances, but that sure sounds good to me.  Enjoy the next 8-10 months.  

 

I'm not involved in any way with hiring at my airline, however there will be a logjam of applications building up due to the hiring stoppage.  And yes, it will be that much more competitive.  Three years ago, UAL had 10,400 qualified applicants, and I'd guess less than 15% of them got interviews.  I'd say we will probably end up there again... or worse.  

I don't know what you mean by "dedicating to the more ancillary parts of the resume" but flying regularly as an instructor/evaluator would be my advice.  

Based on very recent union town hall meetings, I would expect it will be a while before any significant hiring takes place.  Even though they are the experts, it is still speculative at this point, so I'll skip the details of what they said.  

Find a place to ride things out for a year or two.  If the situation improves faster than that, all the better.  

Log jams of applications - totally agree. Cargo applications especially. Compass to close 7 April and even sooner Tran States (Regionals) closes its operations 1 Apr. GoJet is mixed up in this as well with its relationship with Delta which may disappear by the end of 2020. So far that’s nearly 1,100 pilots out of their jobs. This may be just the beginning as the Majors consolidate themselves into critical mass to survive. Won’t disappear as transportation is a critical/vital national asset, but the structure/landscape will change and yes retirements will damper the effect and hopefully offset this crushing situation. Sooner we bounce back the better and that is why the public needs to be disciplined just for a few weeks. Longer it goes, the longer it will take to recover having depleted savings, retirements, small and large businesses, trade conventions, etc.. More debt, less leisure travel. Companies swung back quickly to video teleconferencing, etc and the bean counters may find it’s a more profitable venture and limit former employee travel having set up shop with VTC. We did in the DoD during budget constraints so we know it all too well. Google, Microsoft, Zoom to name a few offering free trials for companies = “the new call for video will lead to a “fundamental, permanent shift in how people work.” - Zoom CEO. We’ll See how this matures and it worries me somewhat.  Of course there will be the must travel for actual sales and hand shake agreements, but it is concerning. We all have a Big Flat-Screen TVs now in your homes, it can’t be too hard with telecommuting running the show right now. Our appetite for entertainment and social gatherings will come back fastest after being cooped up for awhile is just my guess. Some things will come roaring back hopefully, but others will have morphed into a non-travel adaptation forced by this crisis at hand. Flatten the infectious curve fast is the key judging by the more successful nations coming thru this. It will take some time unfortunately. Military aviators have very competitive resumes. Having civilian airline hours as well even shines brighter as proof of your assimilation from Blue to gray (or whatever mil background you come from.) As you are witnessing unfortunately but a proven fact, timing is everything.

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Truth is, the 2 years "consensus" is all bullshit.  Not a single person knows how this will all pan out.  Even if the virus turns soon, will the traveler confidence return quickly?  I'd say continue to log the IP/EP time if able, maybe sign up for various schools (safety, etc...) if you have the change.  If it turns quickly and you have the means, then a trip to the regionals wouldn't hurt either...though likely not needed.  I think it will be as competitive as it ever was, with you having a slight edge for being military.

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SWA just announced Voluntary Leave with partial pay. Details haven’t been disclosed yet, expecting words later in the week. I am so thankful to be a junior guy with them during a time like this.


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28 minutes ago, Duck said:

SWA just announced Voluntary Leave with partial pay. Details haven’t been disclosed yet, expecting words later in the week. I am so thankful to be a junior guy with them during a time like this.

 

...and DAL just took our partial pay leaves off the table and said you can take a personal leave of absence (no pay).  Essentially, because it might look bad to the other employee groups. 🙄

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22 minutes ago, Duck said:

SWA just announced Voluntary Leave with partial pay. Details haven’t been disclosed yet, expecting words later in the week. I am so thankful to be a junior guy with them during a time like this.


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Sarcastic?

I too am a junior guy with SWA and give me this job with the uncertainty over AD any day.  I'd honestly rather go apply at Home Depot and sort hardware than plan an ORI or build a power point for the WG/CC. 

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Sarcastic?
I too am a junior guy with SWA and give me this job with the uncertainty over AD any day.  I'd honestly rather go apply at Home Depot and sort hardware than plan an ORI or build a power point for the WG/CC. 

No not sarcastic at all. I feel blessed that we seem best equipped to weather this storm. Still praying for all my other airline buddies. Several have told me that they feel like furloughs are coming for them. I have seen enough positive comments from our group at SWA that the culture isn’t dead.


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