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On 2/28/2020 at 5:39 PM, Danger41 said:

Other than felonies and drugs, I hear the corona virus, the economic fallout from it, and the Max debacle has stopped United hiring. Good info?

  

On 2/29/2020 at 1:16 AM, HuggyU2 said:

No. 


96 hours later, that assessment has aged like milk. See y'all in July!

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Well said Jeremiahweed on the ups and downs of this industry Cargo or Pax.
 

I see now Hackers info on Purple ramps is correct. Especially after watching the discussions on the APC FedEx Forum “Blessing in disguise”. (The 2020 2% growth projections were pre-Corona of course as stated)

In the “Blessing in disguise” topic on APC. FDX folks indicating some are burning sick leave and vaca to zero trying to mitigate exposure. Pay protection to avoid hot zone discussions, possible risks involved, re-entry into your country of residence,  potential for quarantine into Chinese hospitals, movement of cargo, all great concerns and realities - especially those residing/based in that area. Sounds like some are whoring it up flying/$$$ wise while others are avoiding the “plague” as best they can. All about tolerance levels/pay protections is what the back and forth seems to be about and what exactly do HKG based folks have going for them, or not. Some very interesting points.

*They mentioned on the FDX hiring side as a crew room rumor - 8 in Mar, 8 in Apr for a total of 16 supposedly headed for HKG basing. That says a lot if true. Any sick or vaca available as a new hire?

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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 "United Airlines said Wednesday that it will reduce the number of April flights and suspend hiring and salary increases amid the global coronavirus outbreak that has hurt travel demand. 

United will cut its international flights scheduled for next month by 20% and those in the U.S. and Canada by 10%. Some wide-body planes will be parked, the company said Wednesday.

New hiring will be suspended through “at least” June 30, “except for roles that are critical to our operation,” the airline said.

CNBC previously reported that the airline postponed start dates for new pilots, offered some pilots a month off at reduced pay, and warned employees about further flight cuts beyond the reductions in Asia flights it announced last week.

The changes are likely to be followed by similar moves at other airlines, which are facing the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, as the coronavirus sickens more than 90,000 people."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united-cutting-flights-in-april-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

I'm a pax hauler, and although my seniority is likely good enough to see me through tough times, I'm not optimistic. If I were a cargo guy, I'd be far less concerned. Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index. Oceangoing freight transport is experiencing a giant traffic jam that isn't going to be back up to speed anytime soon. Tens of billions in supply chain products are either stacked and overflowing at shipping ports or sitting idle on dry bulk carriers anchored at sea. The only way to get your important shit anytime soon is air freight.

Today, IATA is predicting a 10% reduction in passenger numbers for the US and Canada markets and a $23 billion decrease in revenue.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-05-01/

Edited by torqued
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Eh, I'm guessing we'll have a much smaller PS check this year, which if you treat it as you should (found money), it shouldn't be a big deal.  If it came to that I'd think we may just stop hiring for a while.  At a company meeting this week, they said they don't have plans on stopping hiring/classes anytime soon (of course...hire until you furlough lol) as we're already behind on hiring.  Also, if anyone is turning their nose up at cargo haulers, they're idiots.  The only reasons I didn't go there was I was called by DAL first and I live very close to a major DAL base.  

Honestly, if this situation is scaring you, you may not have the stomach to be in this industry.  I'd expect this to be one of the many threats of the day we'll see over the coming decades.  Then again, I was wrong one other time...so there's that!

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https://media.swalife.com/docs/news/public/media/video/swatv/2020/200309GaryCoronaCaptioned.mp4
 

Brace for impact. While the airline industry will reset itself accordingly  and continue to thrive in the near future hopefully, it just goes to show you that this “FLU like syndrome“ should be given the respect it deserves, but not panic driven like it has been. Perception is reality for the public. Drive on America, Thrive on.

Good lesson on not to live in fear, but be prepared as possible in the event of such unknowns. Everything is not always cherry or will stay at the top of its game endlessly. 

Don’t cast away your Reserve component opportunities at a moments notice. (proved highly valuable after 9/11). Build yourself that seniority cushion first. Although grass is not always greener, this is just a cyclic event as history has proven. There is light at the end of this tunnel and as I mentioned before, I hope it gets brighter sooner than later. 

 

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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The media is more dangerous than any virus. They take a close second behind nuclear weapons in capability to destroy the planet and they don't give a rat's ass as long as dumb people are sitting on their couches eating up the BS they are reporting.

 

We had A terrible common flu season this year. I want about two decades without getting the flu and I got it this year. I know at least a dozen people who also got it around me. The death rate for Coronavirus just slightly worse than the common flu and mainly for the elderly.

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And then Angela Merkel said “70% of the country could be infected.”

First off, if we’re just throwing out hypotheticals, make it more farcical, 10% rule it. Second, as the leader of a country that’s pretty irresponsible to say with roughly no basis. 

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I think this will all blow over by Memorial Day.  
Something else will happen that will divert the media’s attention away from Covid19 and people will start traveling again because they won’t want to cancel their vacations or give up their fun.  
 

*Maybe Epstein died of Covid19...*
🤣

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On 3/11/2020 at 2:51 PM, Tank said:

I think this will all blow over by Memorial Day.  
Something else will happen that will divert the media’s attention away from Covid19 and people will start traveling again because they won’t want to cancel their vacations or give up their fun.  
 

*Maybe Epstein died of Covid19...*
🤣

I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit Iran soon after the 2 Americans were killed recently. I can already see the “Wag the Dog” pundits talking about Trump is only doing that to distract from the virus and the handling of it.

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The media is more dangerous than any virus. They take a close second behind nuclear weapons in capability to destroy the planet and they don't give a rat's ass as long as dumb people are sitting on their couches eating up the BS they are reporting.
 
We had A terrible common flu season this year. I want about two decades without getting the flu and I got it this year. I know at least a dozen people who also got it around me. The death rate for Coronavirus just slightly worse than the common flu and mainly for the elderly.

You are delusional


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Well, I think the Air Force pilot shortage and attrition problem just got fixed almost overnight. I think it’s going to take a long time for the airlines to recover. I thought the good economy + retirements made this an almost guaranteed good career...more than any other time in history. This virus just caused more damage to the industry than 9/11.

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3 hours ago, pilot said:

This virus just caused more damage to the industry than 9/11.

Pretty interesting statement.  

Are basing this on the perceived cash-on-hand the major airlines have?  Something else?

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2 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Pretty interesting statement.  

Are basing this on the perceived cash-on-hand the major airlines have?  Something else?

Did you see Ed Bastian's email today? I’ve seen several airline CEOs now say the decline in bookings and revenue (and therefore planned capacity cuts) is greater than after 9/11, which is generally what I’m referring to. I think we will see more planes parked and larger revenue losses over the next 6-9 months than the 6-9 months following 9/11. Thank God we at least have a bunch of retirements this time, and the proliferation of RJs and age 65 won’t add to the issues that plagued the lost decade. And hopefully the economy snaps back after this passes...but even if it does, there will be lasting damage to the industry that will take a few years to recover (namely sustained lower demand).  

Anyway, here is most of Ed’s email if you haven’t seen it:


“Demand for travel is declining at an accelerated pace daily, driving an unprecedented revenue impact. Cancellations are rising dramatically with net bookings now negative for travel over the next four weeks. To put that in perspective, we’re currently seeing more cancellations than new bookings over the next month.

The speed of the demand fall-off is unlike anything we’ve seen – and we’ve seen a lot in our business. We are moving quickly to preserve cash and protect our company. And with revenues dropping, we must be focused on taking costs out of our business.

In order to do this, we are taking difficult but determined actions to protect the financial position of the company. These include:
An overall capacity reduction in the next few months of 40 percent – the largest capacity reduction in Delta’s history, including 2001.
Elimination of flying to continental Europe for the next 30 days, which could be extended. We will maintain service to London.
Parking up to 300 aircraft as our reduced capacity requires a substantially smaller fleet.
Deferring new aircraft deliveries to manage our reduced capacity and preserve cash.
Reducing capital expenditures by at least $2 billion for the year, including delaying aircraft mods, IT initiatives and other opportunities to preserve cash.
Immediately offering voluntary short-term, unpaid leaves as well as an immediate hiring freeze.
Substantially reducing the use of consultants and contractors.


We’ll be making more critical decisions on our response in days to come. The situation is fluid and likely to be getting worse.”

Edited by pilot
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Well, I think the Air Force pilot shortage and attrition problem just got fixed almost overnight. I think it’s going to take a long time for the airlines to recover. I thought the good economy + retirements made this an almost guaranteed good career...more than any other time in history. This virus just caused more damage to the industry than 9/11.
Not sure what facts you base your theories on, but most of the airlines pre-9/11 were on the edge of bankruptcy without 9/11. They were flying large, inefficient (empty) airplanes around. Oil prices went up significantly between 99-13 before falling off. We are in different times.

This may turn out to be a speed bump toward the inevitable; another hiring "boom" when this all settles down. Retirements are what they are and not going to change. Some companies are losing 70 pilots per month in retirements. These are all pilots in the 12+ year payscales and theoretically the highest paid pilots in their company. With salaries and associated bennies, a company losing 70 pilots per month can save $20+ million per month in salaries and benefits alone by just freezing hiring. That is 1/4 of a billion dollars in a years time. Furloughs save money in the long run, but they also cost a company money so there has to be a break even point. You furlough off the bottom; the lowest paid pilots. At some point that drives retraining. How much does it cost to bring a furloughed pilot back through indoc and an initial qual program? I have no idea. $100,000 per pilot maybe? You furlough 1,500 pilots only to have to retrain them all when we bounce back. That's at least $100-150 million in training costs. I am no airline financial wizard, but common sense says there is a breakeven point for a furlough and I don't think we are at the point yet where we need to go down that road. This is just me trying to see some light at the end of the tunnel after a few beers.
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3 minutes ago, Gazmo said:

Not sure what facts you base your theories on, but most of the airlines pre-9/11 were on the edge of bankruptcy without 9/11. They were flying large, inefficient (empty) airplanes around. Oil prices went up significantly between 99-13 before falling off. We are in different times.

This may turn out to be a speed bump toward the inevitable; another hiring "boom" when this all settles down. Retirements are what they are and not going to change. Some companies are losing 70 pilots per month in retirements. These are all pilots in the 12+ year payscales and theoretically the highest paid pilots in their company. With salaries and associated bennies, a company losing 70 pilots per month can save $20+ million per month in salaries and benefits alone by just freezing hiring. That is 1/4 of a billion dollars in a years time. Furloughs save money in the long run, but they also cost a company money so there has to be a break even point. You furlough off the bottom; the lowest paid pilots. At some point that drives retraining. How much does it cost to bring a furloughed pilot back through indoc and an initial qual program? I have no idea. $100,000 per pilot maybe? You furlough 1,500 pilots only to have to retrain them all when we bounce back. That's at least $100-150 million in training costs. I am no airline financial wizard, but common sense says there is a breakeven point for a furlough and I don't think we are at the point yet where we need to go down that road. This is just me trying to see some light at the end of the tunnel after a few beers.

I hope there are no furloughs or bankruptcies and they use attrition to right size for demand over the next 3-6-9-12 months after this virus/hysteria goes away (hopefully by April/May?). I agree re furloughs being expensive. I also hope they offer early retirements to help shave some off the top. Could be a win win. But with the massive amount of fleet parking the majors are about to be doing, I predict there won’t be any hiring at the majors for a while, which is what my original post is referring to. The AF likely won’t be bleeding pilots for a while and can do a little catching up via production with a lot less attrition. Also, I predict this is a wake up call for guys thinking of bailing altogether and not doing guard/reserve, which may help fill future guard/reserve billets. And I’m sure getting guard/res  volunteers for stuff when no fly lines or lower average line values are doled out will be a lot easier. 

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"Offering early retirements" means nothing in modern airlines. With no A plan at most carriers (and those with A plans aren't hurting right now), you walk away with nothing extra if you leave at age 61 or 64+364.

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7 hours ago, Gazmo said:

Some companies are losing 70 pilots per month in retirements. These are all pilots in the 12+ year payscales and theoretically the highest paid pilots in their company. With salaries and associated bennies, a company losing 70 pilots per month can save $20+ million per month in salaries and benefits alone by just freezing hiring. 

The company doesn't save money through retirements. They save money by reducing flying operations. Those 70 pilots' seats will be filled by someone else who has already been with the company for more than 12 years.

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7 hours ago, nunya said:

"Offering early retirements" means nothing in modern airlines. With no A plan at most carriers (and those with A plans aren't hurting right now), you walk away with nothing extra if you leave at age 61 or 64+364.

Expanding upon nunya’s point. “Voluntary unpaid leave“ will not be enticing for the majority either, regardless of the airline. Unless your very wealthy, part of the youth group or new hire that has buku $$$ saved or an alternate income source, etc. and wouldn’t mind a break = “Survey says” - you won’t budge unless forced out for the time being. Granted, it would be an exceptional time to land an AGR position within the ANG or Reserve equivalent. While your seniority may slow for a bit due to the lack of hiring under you, the retirements above you will keep you moving. The increase of pay per year (if under 12 or 15 maxed depending on carrier) will be nice to come back to of course and maybe even an upgrade. Also, this may be the opportunity to go beyond the 5 yr USERRA limit and snag a retirement (I would get that authorization in writing by your company) or at least gain a substantial amount of points/$ for your eventual retirement. 
 

Understandably, the Senior airline folks especially those close to retirement would be silly not to max it out to the end = further pad your 401K, grab any matching, continue direct contribution, get yourself closer to max Social Security benefits (67), etc and unfortunately I must say - recover your losses these past several weeks via the stock market.

Delta has indicated the most drastic measures thus far. The others will probably follow suit. Airlines will execute major moves to save their themselves for the most part, lending themselves more in tune for loans or bailout assistance perhaps. It’s obvious (just my thoughts) they are running down their checklist of cuts (not in order): Fleet size reduction, Route reduction, voluntary unpaid leave, reduced pay rates, retirement of older aircraft earlier than planned, stop share buybacks, freeze hiring, cut outside contractor help, deferring aircraft orders, etc. All of this leads to the proverbial “we did everything we could before even considering Furloughs.“

Pray this hysteria is short lived and the initial cutbacks work accordingly. If not, you park too many planes you park pilots. Even the Air Force (AF) had their “banked pilots” in the early 90’s, but those folks just did another paying AF job while they awaited their turn to fly aircraft after pilot training...

 

Edited by AirGuardianC141747
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Ya, early outs won't make much of a dent, as AirGuardian said, why leave early.  I certainly would not expect senior dude to leave early...those dudes have already been through a lot in their careers.  I'm just hoping I'm senior enough to bid one of those 55 hour no fly lines they'll be offering in May or June.  Well...now that the DOD said we can't travel, maybe I'd rather just take 72 hours reserve lines to sit at home.  

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Here's a small bit of positive (at this circus anyway);

On 9/11, all new hires in training were sent home immediately.  That hasn't happened.  In fact, as of today, a new hire pilot class & mx class scheduled for next week are still a go.  Furloughs "off the top" continue at 60-80/month.

No clue as to when the postponed end of month class will be rescheduled.  If the 76s are indeed parked soon, some portion of the 75/76 pilot group will most likely displace and utilize already scarce sim resources.

Disclaimer:  Long range planning here is usually just past the next meal period & lunch time isn't far off.

 

 

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Sent from a friend at Delta....

 

This is from an email our Delta Air Lines CEO sent out this morning. 40% reduction in capacity in the next few months and parking up to 300 aircraft. Unprecedented pull down in flying by any company. Crazy times.

“The speed of the demand fall-off is unlike anything we’ve seen – and we’ve seen a lot in our business. We are moving quickly to preserve cash and protect our company. And with revenues dropping, we must be focused on taking costs out of our business.

In order to do this, we are taking difficult but determined actions to protect the financial position of the company. These include:

An overall capacity reduction in the next few months of 40 percent – the largest capacity reduction in Delta’s history, including 2001.

Elimination of flying to continental Europe for the next 30 days, which could be extended. We will maintain service to London.

Parking up to 300 aircraft as our reduced capacity requires a substantially smaller fleet.

Deferring new aircraft deliveries to manage our reduced capacity and preserve cash.

Reducing capital expenditures by at least $2 billion for the year, including delaying aircraft mods, IT initiatives and other opportunities to preserve cash.

Immediately offering voluntary short-term, unpaid leaves as well as an immediate hiring freeze.

Substantially reducing the use of consultants and contractors.

We’ll be making more critical decisions on our response in days to come. The situation is fluid and likely to be getting worse.”

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Ugh, the last thing I would want to do when I'm 63 is be forced to work myself to the bone during a global pandemic that's deadly to older people because I was too greedy to rebalance my portfolio more conservatively.

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